A Bernank Hat Contest

Thu, Sep 13, 2012 - 9:58am

With little else to do for the next 2.5 hours, we might as well have some fun.

Let's make this contest a little more subjective than those in the past. I'll pick three winners from all entries that most accurately describe what, if any, actions that The Fed announces today as well as predict the 5:45 pm EDT closing Globex price of both gold and silver. Feel free to lobby for yourself but I, as The Almighty and All-Powerful Turd, shall have sole discretion in determining winners and losers.

So, please use the comments section of this thread for your predictions. I will close this thread at 12:29 EDT so that no one can sneak in post-Bernank. In the meantime, try not to get distracted by the micro moves ahead of the Fedlines. All you are seeing this morning is algo/WOPR gaming of buy and sell stops. Ignore it unless the moves become $10+ in gold and/or $1 in silver. 

And for your reading pleasure, I submit the link below. Sort of a rehash of many of the common themes here at TFMR but a good read, nonetheless.


OK, have at it. I'll be back with a new thread and full Turd-analysis after we see the Fedlines.

Have a fun day!smiley!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Kcap · Sep 13, 2012 - 9:58am
Patrancus · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:01am

Me too

Got up early this morn

· Sep 13, 2012 - 10:01am
Swampfox · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:02am


Third? Doh! Not quite.

Irksome · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:04am

My guess

Open ended LSAP, 80 billion per month, of real estate instruments (and possibility of other types, but not initially), plus guidance of keeping interest rates low through 2015.

devilsindetails · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:04am

FOMC 9/13/12

- Extended ZIRP through 2015

- Pace of economic recovery is deteriorating

- No additional asset purchasing, but fed stands ready to take action.

tobydaniel · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:05am


Fed keeps the option of easing and silver falls to 29.80 and gold falls to 1685.

psychofun · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:06am
agNau · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:08am


1.) he will print, or maybe not. 2.) higher for both regardless of this afternoons close, or announcement specifics. Did I Win? I think I should........no matter, I am making winning purchases.

· Sep 13, 2012 - 10:08am

And crude is on the cusp of

And crude is on the cusp of breaking higher and charging toward $101.

· Sep 13, 2012 - 10:10am

Apparently many of the early

Apparently many of the early entrants haven't paid attention to the specifics. To win, you need to:

  1. Accurately predict what actions The Fed will announce
  2. Accurately predict the 5:45 price of gold
  3. Accurately predict the 5:45 price of silver
El Gordo · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:10am

Can it be that I'm in the top 10?


Gold 1743.15

Silver 33.55

Fed action - They may or may not consider injecting liquidity into the market through additional asset purchases, through additional ZRIP (although there is little room to do more), through more QE(3), or utilization of other tools at their disposal should the market require such actions. They will closely monitor the European and Asian situations to be certain that no disintermediation exists or to provide dollar liquidity to the Euro market to prevent a seizure should it be needed. Of course, all bets are off should the situation in the middle east deteriorate or in the event of nuclear war in the area. Otherwise, modest economic recovery will continue in the Estados Unidos and there should be no need to make any material changes at this time.

The8thHabit · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:11am

My predictions

No formal QE3 announcement just a little change in blah-blah-blah- I mean the language of the statement - Fed is ready to step in if needed and all that crap. Gold closing on Globex at $1,702.40, Silver at $32.03.

Larry · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:14am

Sterilized QE

That's what he calls QE 3, which is already red herring BS because it's what he's been doing, non-stop since 2009. "Printing" and shipping barge loads of POSX manure to buddybankers in the EU.

But he won't say that he's initiating it now. Basically, he'll say as they say in the South, "we're fixin' ta start". The S-QE statement will be something along the lines of, "we are ready to deploy it at any time we deem necessary to help the ban... uh, economic sectors that have been hurt by us, um, no, I mean the ban... uh, drought and other outside forces that are not in our control. Oh, and those two political parties. They spend too much. They have to get spending under control. There is only so much we, the almighty Fed can do you know". 

Gold 1733.20

Silver 32.60

fred704 · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:16am


Sit on my hands and let gold drop to 1683 and silver to 30.8 but we might be open to extending zirp

Dr G · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:17am

1. Fed announces formal QE 3

1. Fed announces formal QE 3 with no set closing date. Could go on for 3 months or for 12 months. Fed will announce at each subsequent FOMC meeting whether or not the new QE is ending or continuing. Operation Twist 2 will be discontinued. Interest rates remain the same (non-existant) into 2015 in need be.

2. $1810

3. $35.25

RRJJ · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:17am

Bernanke will decrease

Bernanke will decrease the interest paid on excess reserves. Markets will first tank but recover fast and finish the day higher.

Au: 1750

Ag: 34.50

What time is the all mighty speaking by the way? I seem to see different times on different sites.

Patrancus · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:19am

The Bernank will do

The Bernank will do what a good store front does and that is continue to provide excellent cover for the backroom of Treasury Department's ESF

We are going much higher despite the propaganda ruse, keep stacking.

Zoltan · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:20am

Ooo! Ooo! Ooo! I'll play

What the fed does: The Bernank will stammer, his lip will quiver, beads of sweat will appear on his forehead, more stammering, some hmming and hawing, and then say thank you and leave. He will announce jack shit. Just platitudes and promises to "continue to monitor the situation".

The price of silver and gold will spike higher when he starts, lower when people realize he isn't going to say dick then higher when people realize it doesn't really matter what he says cause he never stopped QE in the first place.

Closing prices Gold 1735 and silver 33.50.


Deeper · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:22am

Fed Announces QE Infinity,

With no definite start date or timeline, only specifying open ended MBS and bond purchases. Extend ZIRP policy through mid 2015.

Closing Price today $1769.50 Gold, $34.69 Silver

Fr. Bill · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:22am

Fr. Bill's Predictions

FED: "Measured" asset purchases; i.e., no specific target for total amount to be purchased or for time-frame during which purchases are made. Thus, all hoping for QE can "roll their own" expectations, as the FED will not commit itself to anything specific.

Gold: $1750

Silver: 34.50

SaratogaPrepper · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:24am

The Fed does....

Absolutely nothing!

Ag = 33.62

Au = 1761.50

sevin · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:25am


1. Bernanke will not institute QE3 and instead say they will use more stimulus if there continues to be a "soft-spot" in the recovery. He will blame the weather in the Midwest on food-price inflation. This will cause the metals to tank.

2. Silver will be at 31.70

3. Gold will be at $1694.40.

And I will most likely be wrong.

FelixTKlose · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:28am

Red Nose For Someone

Another red nose day for the longs...

1. Fed announces formal blahblah, based on their prior blahblah, referring to the unstable outlook for whatever, but nevertheless positive signs just everywhere....(aargh, the happy turd just green shot himself in the knee...)

2. $1698

3. $32.48

RevoltingLemming · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:28am

This answer guaranteed correct.... don't take my series 7

Our loyal helipilot will announce QE3 open ended until we can bring down unemployment. The CARTEL will join up with the crapstream media to bring about a negative outlook for the metals and the metals will be capped at flat or negative for the day. It will take about 3 days before we see the metals kurbstomping kruglyman and the nadler. I predict gold 1725 and silver 32.60 at close. GUARANTEED!

Cucamonga · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:29am

Contest Entry

Fed: Do nothing

AU: $1679.08

AG: $31.47

Big Dutch · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:29am

They Print/$1854/$36.34

1. Accurately predict what actions The Fed will announce: They will initiate QE3. It will be open-ended. Majority of purchases will be mortgage-backed securities.

2. Accurately predict the 5:45 price of gold: $1854

3. Accurately predict the 5:45 price of silver: $36.34

binzer · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:30am

the bernank

Absolutely nothing new, just the usual' we are ready to act'.

Silver 30.92

Gold 1675 

securi_D · Sep 13, 2012 - 10:32am


Silver 34.10

Gold 1747.66

Bernanke will say no QE is necessary at this point in time, however, it will be available should we need to use it in an emergency situation (stock price collapsing, economy suddenly collapsing, etc.). The economy is showing some signs of stagnation but still "recovering as expected. "

· Sep 13, 2012 - 10:32am


Kcap is first?

Is this an omen of things to come in price action by the end of the day? 

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