Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 8, 2012 - 11:18pm


It's a picture of the top of the power pyramid.

Makes me wonder if the people "really" running the show are so powerful they don't even need to show up and freeze their asses off.

Sep 8, 2012 - 11:26pm

For some fun

Just watched this episode of Southpark called "Cash for Gold" and thought I would share.


Sep 8, 2012 - 11:32pm

DPH - Nightmares

Electric Grid failures.......If people only knew how bad it really is.

Sep 8, 2012 - 11:36pm

@ Lumpy

Like when Catherin Austin Fitts is ask the question. The replies with something like, If you know their name, they are just getting a paycheck for a job well done.

Finding ourselves in this situation is really a reflection on us as a people. In some ways I really respect the people in Afghanistan. They have maintained there idea of how they want to live against global tyranny for a long time.

The war is so absurd, our poor soldiers are under such stress more are committing suicide than being killed by the 'enemy'.

And some of the people we train, turn on them and kill them.

There are two kinda people. Those that want to be left alone, and those that JUST WON'T LEAVE THEM ALONE.

The battle has been going on for many centuries.


BTW, I chose this handle because I was taught in grammar school that the Karankawa tribe were canibles. I live in the area they used to inhabit. As it turns out they were very peaceful, but when threatened by force were strong enough in their convictions to eat the organs of people that tried to invade, to make a political point.

Sep 8, 2012 - 11:47pm


Start here:

And then click on the amazon link on that page.

Sep 9, 2012 - 12:09am

Thanks Turd,

I really appreciate you putting this all together. Years ago, over a decade, you had to really search to find the information your provide here today.

Great Job!

Bongo Jim
Sep 9, 2012 - 12:46am

Does the store...

Have Preparation H?

Sep 9, 2012 - 12:55am


Dave Matthews Band - Ants Marching at New Orleans Jazz Festival 2009
Katie Rose
Sep 9, 2012 - 1:33am

Hungary Throws Out Monsanto AND The IMF ~ YEAH!!!!!!!!!

Given everything I have found out about GMO animal feed, I wanted to share this with you. Everything I am doing at this time to secure winter food for my animals is about verifying that the feed is non-GMO. I do not want another birthing season like the last one.

It is my personal belief that Monsanto is the most dangerous corporation on the planet. Obama appointed their chief counsel as FOOD SAFETY CZAR at the FDA. Under his watch he has been targeting raw milk farmers, hauling them away in hand cuffs, raiding their farms with swat teams.

Since part of my preparations for economic meltdown include my dairy goats and their high protein, delicious, Omega 3 rich milk, I am over the top upset with Obama and Congress for their complicity with GMO foods.

I realize that this is a metals blog, so I will keep my rant to myself. I do want to caution those of you with babies, that nearly all baby formulas sold in the USA (unless organic) contain GMO soy or corn products. You may want to research what this may mean for your child's future reproductive health.

So I am delighted to share excerpts of this article.

Full article at link above.

Hungary Throws Out Monsanto AND The IMF

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 07, 2012 4:31 PM


This is from July 22, 2011, International Business Times:

Hungary Destroys All Monsanto GMO Maize Fields

In an effort to rid the country of Monsanto's GMO products, Hungary has stepped up the pace. This looks like its going to be another slap in the face for Monsanto. A new regulation was introduced this March which stipulates that seeds are supposed to be checked for GMO before they are introduced to the market. Unfortunately, some GMO seeds made it to the farmers without them knowing it.

Almost 1000 acres of maize found to have been grown with genetically modified seeds have been destroyed throughout Hungary deputy state secretary of the Ministry of Rural Development Lajos Bognar said. The GMO maize has been ploughed under, said Lajos Bognar, but pollen has not spread from the maize, he added.

Unlike several EU members, GMO seeds are banned in Hungary. The checks will continue despite the fact that seed traders are obliged to make sure that their products are GMO free, Bognar said. During their investigation, controllers have found Pioneer and Monsanto products among the seeds planted.

It's remarkably hard to find sources on this, ironically. It’s even harder, even more ironically, to find anything that mentions the Wikileaks report on the connections between the US government and the chemical/seed industry. Which is curious, in my opinion; it's not as if there's nothing newsworthy in the topic. Just about the only thing I could find was this from Anthony Gucciardi at

US to Start ‘Trade Wars’ with Nations Opposed to Monsanto, GMO Crops

The United States is threatening nations who oppose Monsanto’s genetically , modified (GM) crops with military-style trade wars according to information obtained and released by the organization WikiLeaks. Nations like France, which have moved to ban one of Monsanto’s GM corn varieties, were requested to be ‘penalized’ by the United States for opposing Monsanto and genetically modified foods. The information reveals just how deep Monsanto’s roots have penetrated key positions within the United States government, with the cables reporting that many U.S. diplomats work directly for Monsanto. [..]

Perhaps the most shocking piece of information exposed by the cables is the fact that these U.S. diplomats are actually working directly for biotech corporations like Monsanto. The cables also highlight the relationship between the U.S. and Spain in their conquest to persuade other nations to allow for the expansion of GMO crops. Not only did the Spanish government secretly correspond with the U.S. government on the subject, but the U.S. government actually knew beforehand how Spain would vote before the Spanish biotech commission reported their decision regarding GMO crops.


Image: Buda Castle, Hungarian Parliament Building, Budapest

Sep 9, 2012 - 4:06am

The Turd - - -

We all love Turd. Without Turd, their is no life. Long live Turd.

Sep 9, 2012 - 6:34am

Thanks TF, the title of this thread is more prescient...

...than you could have ever known.

Video is "long", if you are of the "MTV Generation" but if you have any interest in what is CURRENTLY happening in the U.S. (kudos to our international Turdites who are interested, as it will eventually affect you also).

For those who consider it "too long for your attention span", just consider it a long MTV music video and try to "take it in".

Disclaimer (for those who think I'm "singing the praises" of Mittens). If he somehow wins, and this country is worse off 4 years from now (and I'm still able to post from the re-education camp-according to those who are really "out there":) I'll express my mea culpas.

At any rate, just take less than 15 minutes to listen to the bullshit presented over the last 4 years and think about it.

WORDS MATTER: Original Obama Un-narrated Documentary/Review (in his own words)

Sep 9, 2012 - 7:01am

Sep 9, 2012 - 8:05am

Katie & GMO


You just said...

"I realize that this is a metals blog, so I will keep my rant to myself."

Your agricultural contributions are most welcome and appreciated. I suspect that many feel this way. I see this blog as preparation central and PMs just happen to be at the heart of sustaining the wealth we have been able to accumulate in recent decades.

Our PMs will make the transition to a different world much easier, but once we are there, we'll need to know how to survive...and PMs won't do that for us. Very few will have enough PMs to live on the rest of theri lives. We will all have to farm.

We must understand and grasp the challenges of raising any kind of livestock, of gardening, of storage, of alternative power, of clean water. There is much knowledge that earlier generations possessed that has only been passed to a few. My dad is a 75 year-old former professor / postmodern artist, but he was raised by sheep ranchers and all his summers were spent tending sheep. It is unlikely that I'll ever get those skills and knowledge out of him. But here you are, contributing a wealth of such knowledge and staying on the cutting edge of the problems with GMO feeds and other relevant issues. Any of us who are planning to raise livestock now have a better idea of what we are getting ourselves into.

Thank you. Rant as often as you like!

Sep 9, 2012 - 8:39am

Dr Jerome & Katie

Absolutely. This is a blog about preparing for the end of the great Keynesian experiment - and Katie Rose is trying to do just that, in a very interesting way. And I really enjoy people sharing their experiences - and it is Sunday, so the markets are closed. Even Pailin used to give us a break on the weekends!

Speaking of such things, last weekend we made 33 jars of crabapple jelly from our neighbour's tree.

Sep 9, 2012 - 8:50am

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution...Is this the same Turd?

Or just an Atl Turdite?


If you are a Bama fan, we'll see you in the Champinship...Go Dawgs!

In the opinions section of the sports section Turd wrote...

turd ferguson

September 8th, 2012
11:59 pm

wow , you guys act like they won the National Championship. oh wait, you act that way with every win. ROLL TIDE, of course i see by the pups sched, they have the easiest sched. in the S E C.

Eric Original
Sep 9, 2012 - 8:56am

Pie Day (no, not March 14th)

Mrs. O and I will spend the day making apple pies. It won't get us through the end of the keynesian experiment, but it will get us through the next round of family holidays/events. It's a start.

Have a great day everyone.

Sep 9, 2012 - 9:19am

What next?

After exercise with not so unsuccessful TEST with log-periodic approximation of silver prices

Here :

and here:

I feel obliged to move forwards, but there are scarce data at this stage. Anyway, I made some thinking and came out with this:

If FED ( as I expect it will) declares enough QE, silver price should move up to 36-37 without much hesitation by September 23 (or that week) and pullback to maybe 34,5- 35 in next 2-3 weeks. After that, it should continue ascending, but at much slower rate, reaching 40-43 by the end of the year 2012 without big setbacks. 37 and 42 are kind of obvious fear barriers, not so easy to achieve, and not so easy to get over fast. But once they are felt to be clearly behind without dropping back into low 30 ties, the upswing will accelerate again. I think, to forget 37 pain, at least 1-1,5 months will be needed until 37 is breached again- i.e. somewhere in and around Presidential elections.

That is what I think today, not feeling particularly confident.

Well, if the FED does not, I dunno. Then we should see pullbacks already on Monday-Tuesday, not consolidation.

Big L
Sep 9, 2012 - 9:22am


LOL, laughed until I cried. Don't watch much TV, but that was great....

"Faux. That's a French word. You don't even pronounce the X. How's that for prestigious?"

Can't stop laughing.

Thanks for the funnies..

Sep 9, 2012 - 9:29am

Crickets: Has the Libor scandal been swept under the rug?

Investors Expect Libor to be Replaced Within Five Years

By Joshua Gallu - Sep 6, 2012 8:00 PM ET

A key interest rate for more than $500 trillion of securities worldwide will be replaced by a benchmark subject to greater government control, according to a plurality of global investors.

Forty-four percent of those responding to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll said the London interbank offered rate, known as Libor, will be supplanted by a more regulated model within five years. Thirty-four percent predicted the rate will continue to be set by banks in the current fashion, while 22 percent said they didn’t know.

Confidence in Libor has waned as authorities investigate whether financial firms rigged the rate to profit on derivatives positions and hide how difficult it was for them to borrow money during credit-market turmoil in 2008.

Barclays Plc (BARC), the U.K.’s second-largest bank by assets, agreed to pay $460 million in June for its role in fixing the rate, prompting lawmakers, regulators and investors to question the veracity of a benchmark that is pegged to securities ranging from home mortgages to credit cards.

“The Libor scandal should not be something to be hidden under the carpet because it affects the correct functioning of financial markets and the economy as a whole,” said Mario Cribari, head of asset management at Veco Invest SA in Lugano,Switzerland, and a participant in the poll. Governments are trying to intervene “to calm public anger,” he said....


DPH: What should happen or might happen are two different things then what will happen. They'll do nothing the longer time erodes the 'outrage'. Funny thing is, I never detected any sustained official or political outrage in the first place.

Why might that be? They've got each other's backs and they'll never indict the top officials at EVERY Central Bank who new EXACTLY what was going on. They all depended on that fixed Libor.

No one of consequence will ever be held liable. And no, not even Timmy. Never.

Sep 9, 2012 - 9:41am

EricO - you might need some other fruit too!

September 9, 2012 1:24 pm

Apple faces battle for a share of the pie

By Tim Bradshaw in San Francisco and Paul Taylor in New York

Shares in Apple touched another record high on Friday....

Sep 9, 2012 - 9:54am

Easy Listening On A Sunday A.M.

-America- A Horse with No Name
Ventura Highway - America (Lyrics)
Eagles - I Can't Tell You Why [w/ lyrics]
Sep 9, 2012 - 10:01am

Sunday a.m. Global News / Canada Racist???

Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 9, 2012 - 10:02am

DPH (and Dude Stacker)

Just for you DPH, although Dude Stacker would likely approve... (Warning: language for sensitive ears)

Video unavailable

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:04am

re Canada and Iran

Frum the article: (disclaimer - David Frum and I attended the same high school - I have both admired and ridiculed his opinions.)

Relations between the two countries have been bad since the 2003 detention, torture, rape and murder of Iranian-Canadian photographer Zahra Kazemi. The Harper government has supported economic sanctions against Iran and spoken out vigorously against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.


Iran does not respect Canadian passports or the new citizenship rights of Iranian-Canadians, not in 2003 and not now. An Iranian-Canadian, Hamid Ghassemi-Shall, has been sentenced to death in Iran on charges of espionage. Hamid’s brother Alborz died in Iranian police custody in 2010. The regime scooped up the two brothers when they visited their sick mother in Iran and refused to allow the Canadian government contact with these prisoners.

I am fine with good riddance - what a waste of my tax dollars. The article from the Toronto Star (well named) was full of the old 'we must always talk with our enemies, no matter how they behave' - fine give the Star a Noble Peace Prize - I have enough of my old instincts to say enough is enough. Whether this is a harbinger of war or not, I am all for kicking the bastards out.

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:05am


Thanks and lol! That's funny!

I've never seen the Big Lebowski for whatever reason. I can't find it on You Tube except for small chunks.

I should just go rent it and pay for it. What a novel concept.

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:07am

re Horse with no name

You are riding through a desert, and you don't have the time or imagination to name your horse? I mean, really. How about "I am with stupid"?

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:09am

Sunday Morning Mellow...

Visually relaxing vids and some good tunes to boot....enjoy!

Video unavailable
The Cars - Drive [w/ lyrics]
Big L
Sep 9, 2012 - 10:11am


What color is the horse? No cheating....

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:11am

Sep 9, 2012 - 10:15am

Big L

Dang I would have to cheat - how about Piebald, in honour of EricO?

Roan? Anything that would inspire a name - even Poop, or Sweaty?


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
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3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
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