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Send In The Clowns

415
Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-announcement-andrew-maguire

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  415 Comments

scott · Sep 8, 2012 - 8:46am

is thursday fed statement.

NO WAY they could announce it in oct 23 meeting 2 weeks before election.......would be BLATANTLY political.

wait for dec meeting?...............no way.......dow would be TOAST so bad it would take 3 years to inflate it back.

u better believe i will not be fishing thursday.

my PH.D. econ buddy says thursday gets the next big gold wave REALLY going that started weeks ago.

· Sep 8, 2012 - 8:57am

I don't know if that is the real blythe masters. Nevertheless, the nature of the conversation is interesting.

¤ · Sep 8, 2012 - 8:59am

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· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:09am

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:13am
China, Russia sound alarm on world economy at APEC summit Sat Sep 8, 2012 5:26am EDT

By Timothy Heritage

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (Reuters) - China and Russia sounded the alarm about the state of the global economy and urged Asian-Pacific countries at a summit on Saturday to protect themselves by forging deeper regional economic ties.

Chinese President Hu Jintao said Beijing would do all it could to strengthen the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) by rebalancing its economy, Asia's biggest, to improve the chances of a global economic recovery.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said trade barriers must be smashed down as he opened the APEC summit which he is hosting on a small island linked to the Pacific port of Vladivostok by a spectacular new bridge that symbolizes Moscow's pivotal turn to Asia away from debt-stricken Europe.

"It's important to build bridges, not walls. We must continue striving for greater integration," Putin told the APEC leaders, seated at a round table in a room with a view of the $1 billion cable-stayed bridge, the largest of its kind.

.... https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABRE88702W20120908
Dennis · Sep 8, 2012 - 9:16am

This is what will be done. The ZH article posted shows ammo left, only limited. OB has already asked the question....."Did you like what I did with GM?....would you like to see me do that with other companies?" Under the right circumstances, the mindless citizens, and the power hungry elected, will do anything. Santa's QE to infinity will come true. The creativity will evolve to match the desperation. I will not be surprised by what they do. They will begin to remove assets from 401k's & pensions, etc. to meet the needs of Government. It will be sold as good for the country, and backed by the full faith and credit of the Government. Promises of growth and deficit reduction, and payment on demand(probably after maturity)will be made. I am certain they are not about to stay within the accepted rigid box.

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:19am

You just can't go around spending billions on bridges. It all fails when it is too big.

https://rbth.ru/articles/2012/08/31/the_last_preparations_to_the_apec_su...

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:24am

Twitter war between Blythe Masters and jim Rickards

5:16 PM - 7 Sep 12 · Embed this Tweet 13h

to the worst Tweeters in derivatives , bonds , and metals . Also, for my love: .

11h

We love you too Blythe. So, will you smash gold at $1900 or $1999?

9h

Ask Jean-François Lambert. I bet his algo activates when your Twitter followers show parabolic foolishn...er... bullishness.

 (HEY, I RESEMBLE THAT COMMENT) GL

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:30am

In case you doubt whether folks like Butler and I will be proven correct, here is another story for you:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/name-new-reserve-currency-china-imports-more-gold-2012-all-ecb-holdings

¤ · Sep 8, 2012 - 9:41am

Haven't made it over to ZH yet this a.m. 

Lots of Chinese gold noise/news. Liking it and loving that volatile feeling.

What's that all about? devil

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:50am
365 days after blindness, swimming sailor claims gold

Exactly one year after losing his sight in Afghanistan, Navy Lt. Brad Snyder earned a gold medal in the 400-meter freestyle at the 2012 Paralympic Games in London.

For one final, terrifying moment, Navy Lt. Brad Snyder could see....

https://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/07/13710336-365-days-after-blin...

tmosley · Sep 8, 2012 - 9:51am

My old rule number one for trading was: "figure out what the Chinese will do and do it first".

Worked quite well. Actually still following it in a way, except that I am stockpiling silver rather than gold.

scott · Sep 8, 2012 - 9:52am

the 'go to' guy ................is the guy that runs THIS site.

its a given.

· Sep 8, 2012 - 9:58am
ECB not financing sovereign debt: Germany

STOCKHOLM — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday the European Central Bank was not financing sovereign debt with its newly-announced plan to buy sovereign bonds of struggling eurozone members.

"It's not the beginning of monetary financing of sovereign debt," Schaeuble told reporters in Stockholm, bashing the German media as "very nervous" in its criticism of the ECB's decision taken Thursday.

At one of the most highly anticipated meetings in its history, the ECB's governing council agreed on a new programme to buy unlimited amounts of heavily indebted countries' sovereign bonds in a bid to bring down their borrowing costs.

Schaeuble, who was in Stockholm for a seminar on economic growth, defended the ECB's independence, recalling that "as a finance minister, you never comment on the decisions of the ECB."

"We have an independent European Central Bank and we trust this central bank," he said, adding: "If the European Central Bank is a tool for policymakers, then the battle is lost."

....

https://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gi32zPWeFL6iZvpEYC6K...

Paging Humpty Dumpty - words actually are meant to mean something:

'I don't know what you mean by "glory",' Alice said.

Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. 'Of course you don't — till I tell you. I meant "there's a nice knock-down argument for you!"'

'But "glory" doesn't mean "a nice knock-down argument",' Alice objected.

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master — that's all.'

I Run Bartertown · Sep 8, 2012 - 10:04am

https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/bracken-when-the-music-stops-how-americas-cities-may-explode-in-violence/

"In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision … a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots … the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.… the next time we are visited by widespread, large-scale urban riots, a dangerous new escalation may be triggered by a new vulnerability: What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT cards flashing nothing but zeroes? Or if the government’s refusal to reimburse them causes supermarket chains to stop accepting them for payment? ...the food will stop.

STEP ONE: FLASH MOB LOOTING - ...Any disruption in the normal functioning of the EBT system will lead to food riots with a speed that is astonishing...

NEXT STEP: FLASH MOB RIOTS - ...The results of these clashes will frequently resemble the intersection of Florence and Normandie during the Rodney King riots in 1992, where Reginald Denny was pulled out of his truck’s cab and beaten nearly to death with a cinder block...The enraged mobs in urban America will soon recognize that their spontaneous street riots cannot be stopped by the police, and then they will grow truly fearsome. For the police, it will be a losing game of Whack-a-Mole, with riots breaking out and dispersing at a speed they cannot hope to match...In the absence of fresh targets of value blundering into their areas, and still out of food, MUYs will begin to forage beyond their desolated home neighborhoods and into suburban borderlands. “Safe” supermarkets and other stores will be robbed in brazen commando-like gang attacks. Carjackings and home invasions will proliferate madly.

THE SUBURBAN ARMED VIGILANTE RESPONSE -

In the absence of an effective official police response to the exploding levels of violence, suburbanites will first hastily form self-defense forces to guard their neighborhoods..Four hundred yards is a long walk. 1.. Yet a typical AR rifle, like those currently owned by millions of American citizens, can hit a man-sized target at that range very easily...And there are a far greater number of scoped bolt-action hunting rifles in private hands in the United States. .. approximately twenty million Americans venture into the woods every fall armed with such rifles, fully intending to shoot and kill a two-hundred-pound mammal. 

Taking this imbalance in effective ranges of the firearms most likely to be available to both sides, certain tactical responses are sure to arise, and ranking near the top will be the one described next.

THE SNIPER AMBUSH: THE NEW TACTIC OF CHOICE

The sniper ambush will predictably be used as a counter to rampaging mobs armed only with short- to medium-range weapons. ..The neighborhood defense teams will evolve into proactive suburban armed vigilante groups (SAVs) out of a desire to preemptively take the violence to their perceived enemies, instead of passively waiting for the next home invasion or carjacking.

A SAMPLE SNIPER AMBUSH SCENARIO...The result is a turkey shoot...

THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO VIGILANTISM

Where they will be unable to respond swiftly or effectively to the outbreaks of street riots by MUY flash mobs, the police and federal agents will respond vigorously to the deadly but smaller vigilante attacks. ...Millions of Americans are already far better armed and trained than a few hundred IRA or Taliban ever were. And the police and Army would not be operating from secure fire bases, their families living in total safety thousands of miles away in a secure rear area.

It is a frightening thing to crystallize the possible outbreak of mass starvation and racial warfare into words, so that the mind is forced to confront agonizingly painful scenarios. It is much easier to avert one’s eyes and mind from the ugliness with politically correct Kumbaya bromides. "

----------------------------

Sorry for the patchy bold and italic mix. The editor doesn't seem to let me get it all uniform. The article is long (I picked snippets) and grim. Certainly not an unassailable thesis, but much more in contact with reality than the recent fevered dreams of the Army 'expert' plan to subdue a fictional Secessionist South Carolina.

Lincoln Hahn · Sep 8, 2012 - 10:26am

Turdisms: Stool sample, blood spoort ! .... That body of scientific method and investigative protocols which attempts to determine the sexual preference and investment habits of subjects by using advanced "Breath-o-Meters" to sniff their bar stools ! Bloodspoort includes female subjects using their bicycle seats ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad The Clowns Are Here devil

Mickey Silverstone · Sep 8, 2012 - 10:44am

You HAVE to do it. Time works against you if long options.

I take profits by rolling up and maybe out. Then, I can also do spreads.

If you do the spread and we get a brief sell off you merely buy back the short side.

meantime, in the last two weeks a lot of what were OTM positions have become Deep ITM and you can roll up and still have a position and take winnings off the table. Then you can buy physical or if we get a sell off you buy more options.

Do not forget taxes,

Ian Murray · Sep 8, 2012 - 11:02am

I think the crux is this 'sterilisation' idea. According to our much loved 'Grauniad' newspaper the ECB will drain an equal amount of money from the system as it creates new money. "It does this by increasing the rates it will pay commercial banks to deposit money in its vaults." So, can someone reassure a very green Greenie that this does not imply money for nothing?

And I must hat-tip wee Ivars for his contributions. With the score at Scotland 0 Serbia 0 after 45 minutes in the World Cup Qualifier hopefully that's the only East European I'll want to see being encouraged this afternoon.

¤ · Sep 8, 2012 - 11:33am

We're several Iran speed boats away from a hair trigger 'mistake'.

reefman Mickey Silverstone · Sep 8, 2012 - 11:52am

@Mickey,

Good advice regarding options. 

· Sep 8, 2012 - 12:01pm

Barofsky on Bailouts

Neil Barofsky Hosted by Russ Roberts

Neil Barofsky, author of Bailout and the former Special Inspector General for the TARP program, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his book and the government bailouts by the Bush and Obama Administrations. Barofsky recounts what he learned about how Washington works and the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats. His book and this interview are a workshop in public choice economics. Along the way he unravels some of the acronyms of the last few years including TARP, TALF, and HAMP. The conversation concludes with lessons learned by Barofsky and what might be done in the future to prevent the corruption and ineffectiveness of past bailouts.

Barfosky on Bailouts

reefman · Sep 8, 2012 - 12:05pm

Those who do options: How do you calculate your options profits? What tool do you use?

I use:

https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com

Here is an example - it shows the percent gain one can achieve with options:

https://opcalc.com/1N75

· Sep 8, 2012 - 12:05pm

Indeed the ECB did announce a deposit auction as it was termed last week - but that was only for the amount of sovereign debt they already had outstanding, I believe. Now they have "agreed on a new programme to buy unlimited amounts of heavily indebted countries' sovereign bonds" - "unlimited" is a very big number. 

reefman George Clooney · Sep 8, 2012 - 12:08pm

@xty,

Don't forget Draghi's "Weeeth Eeennn our Man-date" (within our mandate) terminology. :)

BIANCA BRYNDA ¤ · Sep 8, 2012 - 1:24pm

Great charts,

thanks, DrkPurpleHaze

Dracula · Sep 8, 2012 - 1:29pm

Dianne Feinstein to reintroduce assault weapons ban bill: https://gunnuts.net/2012/09/06/dianne-feinstein-to-reintroduce-assault-w...

Send a donation to her contra-candidate: https://www.emken2012.com/

muscrat · Sep 8, 2012 - 1:48pm

Monthly Baltic Dry Index is hanging out around 2008 levels.
https://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

silver foil hat Turd Ferguson · Sep 8, 2012 - 2:16pm

I got a hankerin' for cheez-its after looking at that chart. Anyone else?

Gramp · Sep 8, 2012 - 2:29pm
Chinese govt advise gold buying - why? What is their plan?

A well thought through presentation.

I have great respect for the historically demonstrated patience of Asia... This being the kind of thing that cant be rushed. 

Do we have any Chinese Turdites that have a perspective?

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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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