Send In The Clowns

414
Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-anno...

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  414 Comments

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ivars
Sep 10, 2012 - 2:22am

On Friday, GSR blew through

On Friday, GSR blew through 52. The light next hurdle seems to be at 50, or silver around 35,5-36. So far, no signs of stopping, though some consolidation may still happen around 52 ( silver 33). From this chart, I feel (turn it around, will see log-periodic wave sequence starting at half August) that we may reach 50 this week after the Fed.

Karankawa
Sep 10, 2012 - 1:41am

Dr. Jerome

I kind of think this is also why youtube exists.

Video unavailable
S Roche
Sep 10, 2012 - 1:33am
Sep 10, 2012 - 1:08am

Why youtube exists

It is 1 am and I can't sleep. Neither can my daughter. So we found this on youtube and made the night worthwhile. It must be PM related because it is the middle of the night and Bruce Lee is wearing gold.

Monedas
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:40am

Our Daily Turd !

Forgive us our farts .... as we forgive those who fart against us ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Prayer Tour

lakemike49Katie Rose
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:37am

RE: katie ok &barn door

thank you for your posts, I am in my sixty's and I find your posts, I can't spell so I will just say keep them up they give us hope thanks for sharing

lakemike

Karankawa
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:33am

i agree Thievery........

They were both bright guys. Jobs is dead, and Gates is promoting vaccines.

The part that isn't controlled other than the NSA capturing everything sent, is we all know it., and we all know that they know what we have all learned.

That is powerful, and the NSA knows it as well.

Think they will stay on board when the 'money' runs out?

I seem them bartering for goat milk.

Karankawa

tmosleykingboo
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:32am

So you are sticking with the

So you are sticking with the "Apple got financial help from Microsoft and is therefore inferior to Microsoft in every way forever and ever" argument? Perhaps you should throw out a few more government anti-trust action red herrings?

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

https://lesswrong.com/lw/lj/the_halo_effect/

El Gordo
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:27am

Why bother with strike?

Why are the politicians worried about a teachers' strike. Just give them what they want and move on down the road. It's all going to crater soon anyway, so why bother with it now? Unless as noted above, it could be used for political cover.

Louie
Sep 10, 2012 - 12:20am

Chicago teacher's strike

How about another side bet?

Obama puts his campaign on hold to personally fly to Chicago and negotiate a settlement. He is shown in late night meetings with his jacket off, and his shirt sleeves rolled up, empty water bottles and Styrofoam coffee cups strewn about the table, working harder than ever to end this strike, to get kids back in school, get Americans back to work, and to help Chicago balance their budget. After he personally hammers out the details, we will be treated to 3-4 days of press announcements on how President Obama is a uniter not a divider, who loves children and their education, and he is the man we need for.....

Four more years, four more years, for more years!!!!!

It involves unions, it is in Chicago, and is it just before the election. Pardon me if I am cynical.

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