Send In The Clowns

414
Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-anno...

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  414 Comments

boatman
Sep 7, 2012 - 12:58pm
ivars
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:09pm

Added 900 Oz XAG at 33,22.

Added 900 Oz XAG at 33,22. Average 31,04.

Also I like this now very much closer then earlier:

stingbee30
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:09pm

RE: MY TAKE REDUX

Today's Close: As i said, i see a close around $34.00 on SILVER (NYMEX)....with more running in the GLOBEX market

Gold close: $1750

Monday: Gold will run towards $1775, and Silver will run towards $35.00

Support: GOLD 1700 (will be a major support line for any sell-offs triggered next week)...

Silver $32.00

Next week target...

Silver: $35.00-$37.00

Gold: 1800

GOOD LUCK....Have a great weekend....

Play: Start looking into SLV OCT 37 CALL (could move substantially by next week)...

Irksome
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:10pm

1933 St. Gaudens case

https://news.yahoo.com/judge-says-10-rare-gold-coins-worth-80-152750965--abc-news-topstories.html

What I find fascinating on this is how the government in this case says, since this is stolen property, no matter how you got it, it is given to the legitimate owner. That is the correct outcome (though sad for the former 'owners'). Yet when Sentinel steals customer segregated funds (by using them as collateral for a loan), the courts side with the banks against the legitimate owners.

thisismynewname
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:17pm

@StingBee

You convinced me - bought 30 Oct37s... And yes - I do have a gambling problem - anyone got that number?

Silver Alert
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:18pm

Something for your Calendar next week Turd

Wednesday is definately going to be an interesting day. Sept 12th the German high court rules if Germany's participation in the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) is constitutional. If they say no, the EU self-destructs. Yes is a green light for more Euro printing. Could be good for gold either way, what do you think?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/09/06/premature-celebration-euros-hopes-hinge-on-german-court/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/kaption-kontest-krimson-kardinals-karlsruhe

I thought the picture went well with the title of this blog:

Harald
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:20pm
Silver Alert thisismynewname
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:21pm

1-800-buy-agau

1-800-buy-agau

Haole Guy
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:24pm

@ Reefman

I'm getting killed on UVXY I hope it rebounds or else I threw away about $400 since June assuming it doesn't go to zero. Then I'll be at a $600 loss

thesandbox
Sep 7, 2012 - 1:29pm

Canada closes Iran embassy..

hmmmmmmm????? https://news.yahoo.com/canada-closes-iran-embassy-expel-remaining-irania... Canada has closed its embassy in Iran and will expel all Iranian diplomats in Canada within five days, Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday, denouncing Tehran as the biggest threat to global security. "Diplomatic relations between Canada and Iran have been suspended," Baird said.....MORE

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments

by Turd Ferguson, 10 min 48 sec ago
by mavens, 13 min 18 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 53 min ago
by H8Fiat, 58 min 14 sec ago
by Outback, 1 hour 38 min ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 16 min 14 sec ago
by NW VIEW, 3 hours 47 min ago
by NW VIEW, 5 hours 11 min ago
by Solsson, 9 hours 17 min ago
randomness