×

Error message

  • HTTP error -1002 occurred when trying to fetch .
  • HTTP error -1002 occurred when trying to fetch .
  • HTTP error -1002 occurred when trying to fetch .

Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

Send In The Clowns

415
Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-announcement-andrew-maguire

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  415 Comments

Prize Fighter · Sep 7, 2012 - 10:11pm

I have to give a shout out as well to TTM. Turd continues to outdo himself and the podcasts just keep getting better. Dare I say some are, exclusive? Sure a 20% gain in silver makes everyone more handsome but this past week was excellent coverage, especially today. Then I come over here and get NNL? Too good man. 

I whole heartedly recommend the simple subscription to access Turd and his guests at their expressive and insightful best.

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/

Saratoga Prepper · Sep 7, 2012 - 10:15pm

I've always been scared of clowns.

Video unavailable
¤ · Sep 7, 2012 - 10:21pm

I saw it and have a little bit to add to it also. I recommend everyone read that and let it sink in.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/scary-math-behind-mechanics-qe3-and-why-be...

I think the supposition that the article makes is that once the Fed runs out of UST's to sell that they're out of business or stuck. Maybe in a normal business/market environment. But how about in this 'make it up as you go" CB/Treasury accounting fraud environment that we see change shape into whatever they need?

What it tells me is that the US is a lot closer to almost fully owning and purchasing enough of our own debt in it's entirety and that we won't need anyone to actually buy it any longer. Sounds nuts and not plausible, right?

Every major country is now purchasing their own assets with super low ZIRP or NIRP in the background so that they can pay it all off (to themselves btw) in the future as cheaply as possible because what we're seeing is the lack of private buying dwindling and the CB's taking up the slack and buying the rest as they need be. Just look what's starting to happen in the EU and the rates plummeting today in a completely unnatural free market way.

I see a point where they walk away (Govt. debt jubilee) from all of their own debts that they will mostly own themselves anyway by virtue of printing enough to keep buying it perpetually as they are just starting to.

The US is wayyy ahead of that curve and what I think could happen is written here. We are living in a MOPE 101 world where anything that's needed to keep it going will happen because it needs to.

Complete distortion of previous norms, especially on the ledger side of things, for them.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/110168#comment-110168

Brian Cooke · Sep 7, 2012 - 10:51pm

the good shit 

The Shining Typewriter/Baseball Bat Scene 2
Roark · Sep 7, 2012 - 10:52pm

El Gordo said: "...There are plenty of risks out there which could cause problems, but neighbors taking care of neighbors is the way this place started out, and it can continue that way. Just maybe at a little slower pace..."

1000 hat tips to you.

We often get so wrapped-up in the antics of Jamie, Blythe and Uncle Ben that we forget there is something beyond our PM's event horizon. The economy can (and likely will) crash. But we've already walked that road in our minds, so it's not unexpected, and hopefully not paralyzing. As long as the sun rises, and the coffee can be perked, and the oldsters can tell their tales to the young, Life will go on in some form or another. And perhaps that slower pace wouldn't be entirely unwelcomed.

Patrancus · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:06pm

traded the last of my dear grannies munis today, and plowed her fiat into 30 of these beauties, oh my dear grannie can ya hear me now?

tom ¤ · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:09pm
¤ · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:12pm

"Cujo" is a horror/thriller film based on the Stephen King novel of the same name.

Cujo was directed by Lewis Teague from a screenplay by Lauren Currier.

The film was #58 on Bravo's 100 Scariest Movie Moments.

Video unavailable

Enjoy!

tmosley · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:23pm

Am I the only one who noticed that gold was up EXACTLY 2% and silver was up EXACTLY 3% today?

What's up with that?

johnnydow · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:34pm

QE pixie dust works now for Gold. Big nothing next Clown meeting. Gold starts to slowly drift down after that point headed into election. The BTD end of the world crowd will crow the loudest before the election. Keep any eye out for this pattern.

¤ · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:37pm

Your observant for one thing.

The markets are managed to some degree on certain occasions it appears and what we saw today was some type of global coordination all the way around in a very controlled and effective manner.

The 10 yr. notes bounced all over the place in unison for the most part. Weird.

Pretty impressive acheivement by them.

Gramp · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:43pm

"Starts to slowly drift down after that point"...

 I will keep my eyes open for that, then what? 

tom · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:45pm

more sedate king

benny_bomb_boom · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:46pm

heres the clowns mouth 

johnnydow · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:52pm

Buy GOOG instead of GOLD.

tom · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:52pm

that's better

¤ · Sep 7, 2012 - 11:56pm

No translation necessary, just dig the rhythm ...and the fluorescent dancer.

Video unavailable
Saratoga Prepper · Sep 8, 2012 - 12:27am

Didn't see no clowns in that one.

tho at times.........

Edit: And there are Ladies who read these pages, so is the use of vulgarities REALLY necessary?

tom · Sep 8, 2012 - 12:49am

i think we are entering a new phase for the US economy. the plate spinners are losing control too many plates to keep spinning. the 'warning' signal that comes before the 'watch' is upon us. there is time, but action is required a new sense of urgency is required.

Brian Cooke · Sep 8, 2012 - 1:00am
Peter Frampton Do You Feel Like We Do Midnight Special 1975 FULL
Brian Cooke · Sep 8, 2012 - 1:16am
ivars · Sep 8, 2012 - 3:07am

As an example, this one is definitely going to collapse soon (default partially or by huge inflation) as it enters superexponential growth phase.

Log-periodic oscillations with shortening periods are also clearly visible- now since 2008 I guess ( picture too small to discern) it has entered precrash spike.

This looks as bad as the USA chart which is also about to enter ( after a bit of slowdown in growth speed in 2010-2012 ) the last period before spike that should last about 1 year and than precrash (partial default) spike, so the attempt to print out themselves from this debt will last till the end of approximately 2013, then inflation should kick in seriously, if its possible, as , as we have seen, with deleveraging and cash hoarding with low velocity of money its not coming in any serious fashion, or, there may be even deflation forcing to repay and borrow even more. Whatever the mechanism, even if I used to forecast USA debt crash early 2016 here https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/521025#comment-521025( partial default, either not repaying, or devaluating currency in one huge or series in small fast steps) or early 2014 as here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/522717#comment-522717 it looks more like early -mid 2014. The same for UK.

Need to have some better log-periodic approximation of these based on shorter time scale ( e.g. monthly ) charts to understand where the crash point ( finite singularity might be) , but its not far away, about a year and a half

USA debt crash is the key near term event. It can happen, as it has happened in the past, without self-destruction of banking system and life on the Earth. But that would take the fundament of USA treasuries out of the foundations of the system, that is for sure, and something new will replace it, after some time of wrestling. Banks will remain, just not all of them. As will fractional reserve banking, I think. Too early to change that KEY mechanism that has allowed to eat up fossil energy reserves at superexponential speeds ( here again non-sustainability chimes in , on energy side), and live the future off today. As long as Oil/Gas/Coal will be enough, fractional reserve banking will stay, again, may be a bit changed in form to slow down eating into resources (bigger reserves etc) . Bankers prefer deflation to solve crisis so that they get their debts back uninflated, so here is one solution-also why Gold price might crash in 2017.

If I could get somewhere decent monthly eXcel public debt data for most interesting countries, or, perhaps , even more representative, both public and municipal and private and business debts separately and cumulatively , I should be able to see in which countries the threat of sovereign default OR sharp devaluation is real, and when.

Chris C · Sep 8, 2012 - 5:12am

...before the B.O. apologists come out of the woodwork to pummel me for "believing there's any difference between the two parties" ( a favorite tactic when you can't defend your man) or that I'm a "brain washed sheeple" (which seems to come up when conservative viewpoints are made, but never liberal viewpoints:)...all I'm saying is that the SITTING President (and his sycophants) made all these statements 4 years ago (especially love his "cutting the deficit in half by the end of his first term") and now he wants 4 more years.

If Mittens (definitely not my first, or even second, choice to oppose B.O.) makes such outlandish statements as B.O., and somehow wins, I will hold his feet to the fire also.

Additionally, why do certain members here love to point out the futility of "playing the politics game" because it's "rigged" (which I do believe it is to a certain extent) but these same people continue to "play the paper PM game" which is most certainly rigged?

OK... I'm ClinkinKY and I approve this message:)

Fire away and keep stackin'.

https://youtu.be/mLO9K5uTsng

Watcher · Sep 8, 2012 - 5:19am

The price of Euro Gold right now on the doorstep of its old highs tells us where Dollar Gold is headed right now.

Santa is saying gold is headed to 3500 here and now!

This bull took a whole year to shake off as many riders as it could. Now it's headed up and will refuse to pull back so the riders can get back on. The Bull will just go sideways and stair step it's way to new highs. Stackers win... 

Chris C · Sep 8, 2012 - 5:25am

https://youtu.be/PEHl-o-2Dss

"Forward"

Wonder how much of a grant this company will get:)

https://youtu.be/yiiI-q-bbE0

Watcher · Sep 8, 2012 - 5:32am

And those who find love are truly the richest on earth.

Jefferson Airplane- Today
silver foil hat Brian Cooke · Sep 8, 2012 - 6:37am
The Simpsons - No Tv and No Beer

and ...

Send In The Clowns:

The Simpsons - No Tv and No Beer
Louie Dennis · Sep 8, 2012 - 7:02am

The Fed has done QEs in the past allegedly to inject "liquidity" into the markets. The real reason has been to continue to fund the US Government because nobody wants to buy our bonds. The US Government can run a bigger deficit if it wants to (If congress votes for more spending), and then this increased spending can be funded by selling T-bills to the Fed. So there is really not a limit on how much QE could be done if CONgress would authorize the spending. 

Republicans will not authorize more spending before the election, so there is only about $115 billion of US Government debt for him to buy up each month/ The Fed has already been funding these purchases through low interest loans to participating banks, who then in turn purchase the T-bills. 

Sad day when the only option Ben has to "inject liquidity" into the system is by actually dropping it out of a helicopter!

Louie thinks NO QE this week. 

Lumpy · Sep 8, 2012 - 7:54am

When I posted that article about the JPM $36 derivative time-bomb, I was only trying to refresh some memories.

The battle for $36 was a BIG deal and there was lots of speculation about JPM losing big if $36 silver was breached. Now that we are getting close to that number again I thought I'd "DUST OFF" that article to remind us where we've been. 

It was also a heads up if you started to hear some noise about it again in the near future. I think the story is BS used to stir up silver investors anyway. Just some more propaganda to stoke the fires and get the traders all excited.

BUT! The stacker could care less if JPM blows up. The stacker has his or her insurance policy with silver. Silver may or may not pay off as a great insurance policy against financial crisis. It just depends on what level of financial hell we are in for.

I've said it before here that I don't believe they, the EE, will allow a total collapse of the system because they would have too much to lose. They hold all the card now. They hold all the power and can do whatever the fuck they want to do, and that is exactly what they do.....Whatever they want.

So I accept that. I'm not impressed by a few dollars up move in a week, or a day for that matter. That's not different. That's not what will make me say it's really over now.. Or they've really lost control this time.

When the EE has lost control...NOBODY will have to ask if they did. NOBODY will have to wonder about it. It will be right in your face and you'll wish like hell that it wasn't.

THIS stacker could care less about JPM. I could care less about silver to be honest with you. I don't buy it because I'm in love with it. I buy it for the same reason I buy car insurance. There may be a time when I'm going to need it. I don't know when. I don't know how. I just know that the odds are pretty good that I'm going to need it.

Who would want to see the system collapse and see people suffer? I never want to see that. I hope my insurance policy never pays off. I've even stated here that I hope the EE can keep it going for as long as possible because I don't want to see what's coming.

We are probably living in the "good times" now and don't even know it.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Recent Comments

by benque, 7 min 48 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 13 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 17 min 42 sec ago
by mavens, 20 min 18 sec ago
by RLWest1031, 22 min 4 sec ago