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Send In The Clowns

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13    FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? http://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-announcement-andrew-maguire

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

415 Comments

Istack's picture

The train is leaving the station

get on before it speeds away

punchbowl's picture

calling john baird

Contact John

  • Phone613-990-7720
  • Address 2249 Carling Ave
    Suite 418
    Ottawa, Ontario
    K2B 7E9

moronic lapdog

Edit:  Foreign Affairs Office

613 995-1851

John's in Russia with his alien leader and Vlad

billwilson's picture

Overall market

The boat looks very heavily loaded to one side, and when that happens ... well... we often go back to the other side.

watching SPY Oct Puts at 139. These are down to $1.23 as I write. The drop today implies some pretty confident predictions that we are going to see almost no chance of a sell off in the broader market prior to the election.

I must be missing something ... or maybe I am not an algorithm and I actually look at reality.

Just A Regular Guy's picture

US 10 Year

Anyone noticing even tho it got pounded down from 1.75%ish and was about 1.59 or 1.58 it's now, in just 1 session, has come back to 1.65%. More easing coming next week imo if it keeps climbing.... Keep stacking!

Spain's 10-year is down from 6.85% a few days ago to 5.63%.... that is insane.

I wonder if this means the bond-bubble is breaking?

Peace.

dropout's picture

Beware of Noise

Silver up over a buck in 24 hrs and gold up over 10 bucks. To QE or not to QE? Unemployment down to 8.1%. The ECB, Fed and PBof C to coordinate stimulus. All jolly good, back slapping noise!

Wait for gold to make $100 moves in 24hrs and silver to make $10 moves. In either direction.

Keep your eyes on the fundamentals and what they tell you. This will be the final deciding factor on whether or not the actual "crunch time" has arrived. Until then - be still and just keep doing what, over the past 12 years has kept you safe and your wealth safe guarded, from the EE and the stealth theft through currency debasement and inflation.

For the most part - ignore the noise, since that's all it is - noise. BTFD's     

Buzz Wired's picture

What is up with Sprott's PHYS Gold Trust??

PHYS is down $0.09 so far today...at the same time Spot Gold has ripped UP hard by $35-$40...no news I could find.

Anyone have any idea why?  What am I not seeing?

dropout's picture

@Buzz Wired RE: Sprott

Normal move. Sprott is offering another tranch of physical gold shares to the PHYS fund. Until the physical gold is bought, the move down will be quite normal. 

DayStar's picture

PHYS

Sprott announced around 10 AM this morning that he is buying more gold for PHYS.  That dilutes the shares and causes the price to go down for a short time.

DayStar

pickaxe's picture

PHYS

Offering new shares today.

http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/media/7187/PHYS-Launch-Press-Release-2012-09-06.pdf

I used the weakness (lower premium) to add.

~pickaxe

TheYeomanFarmer's picture

PHYS

Buzz Wired - Sprott announced that they're issuing a large new batch of shares in PHYS.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2012/09/07/sprott-gold-fund-halted-amid-share-offering/

Bollocks's picture

QE3 !

GOLDMAN: It Looks Like QE Is Coming Next Week

Ben Bernanke Federal Reserve

Quick blast outta Goldman.

BOTTOM LINE: With today’s August employment report showing a nonfarm payroll gain of 96,000 and an unemployment rate of 8.1% because of a drop in the participation rate, we expect a return to unsterilized and probably open-ended asset purchases at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting. 

MAIN POINTS: 

1. We now anticipate that the FOMC will announce a return to unsterilized asset purchases (QE3), mainly agency mortgage-backed securities but potentially including Treasury securities, at its September 12-13 FOMC meeting. We previously forecasted QE3 in December or early 2013. We continue to expect a lengthening of the FOMC’s forward guidance for the first hike in the funds rate from “late 2014” to mid-2015 or beyond.

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-bad-jobs-report-puts-odds-of-qe-next-week-above-50-2012-9#ixzz25nNXz1is

Buzz Wired's picture

Thanks Everyone

I missed the news...makes sense.  Just noise.

Much appreciated.

Island Guy's picture

Stairs Up, Elevator Down

I've often seen on this site the old adage that silver takes the stairs when going up, and the elevator when going down.  Not today.  In fact, most of the gain today took place between 8:30 a.m. and 8:45 a.m., eastern time.  Just 15 minutes of trading accounted for most of the gain!

Which brings up my point.  For the last few years I've noticed that market moves of all sorts take place very, very quickly.  Stocks, PM, commodities, etc.  Perhaps it has something to do with all of the computer trading.  In this sort of environment, the only way to catch the sudden, violent moves is to be positioned beforehand.  None of us poor Turdites will be able to react quickly enough after the market has already started to make its move, because the major part of the move will be over before we can get on board.

Which is why Turd's advice and this site are so important.  How many of us would have been positioned to take advantage of the up-tick today if Turd had not alerted us weeks (months?) ago that it was coming?

Turd, thanks for all you do! 

Istack's picture

Andy Hoffman

Great article by Andy Hoffman today:

In my view, the best way of handling one’s investments is like a fragile egg. In other words, your ONLY consideration should be to avoid breaking it. Don’t worry about it growing, or multiplying – instead, JUST DON’T BREAK IT. All around you, you will hear the sounds of neighbors, colleagues, and strangers’ eggs breaking, but yours will remain intact. And the only way to GUARANTEE that result is to not “invest,” but simply SAVE, PHYSICAL PRECIOUS METALS.

He Who Loses Least

fertzeltwist's picture

Benny

I think ol' Benny is DYING to launch new QE (overt) and the smallest of excuses will do. I believe destruction IS the agenda. This is why I started stacking. Despite my diving accident (lead is MUCH smarter for use on the weight belt than gold/silver bars in case you have to drop your weights in an emergency) PM stacking has served me well.

ivars's picture

This is no way similar to

This is no way similar to February 2012. Look at the bottom silver had this time, and before Feb. Look at exponential channel- it sits on the bottom. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/203395#comment-203395  . In Feb it was close to the middle. Look at QE- its guaranteed.

There are too many buts... Too much mentioning of EE&Cartel. Is Cartel going to beat the FED, ECB and PBoC combined? USA debt is growing and will grow even faster.

Silver has crossed very important level of 33,4 in a stride.

I mean, caution is good, but fear is irrational.

ZILVERMAN's picture

OIL OPTIONS

i am looking for a nice oil option ticker,any ideas?

pickaxe's picture

Comming Attraction... for the rest of us???

Argentines feeling trapped by currency controls

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentines are increasingly feeling trapped inside their country as the government restricts access to the foreign cash they need to travel.

Legally trading pesos for dollars or euros has become ever more difficult as President Cristina Fernandez tries to keep dollars inside the country and bolster the Argentine peso's sliding value. And new rules taking effect this week are squeezing them still further by going after credit card spending.

Until now, travel has offered a limited exception to the currency controls first imposed last November: People up to date on their taxes and poised to cross a border, tickets in hand, can get permission to buy no more than $100 per person for each day abroad. The process is bureaucratic and intrusive, and many say their requests are rejected for reasons they don't understand.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-04/argentines-feeling-trapped-by-currency-controls

How many Argentines are wishing today that they'd acquired Gold & Silver, rather than Pesos & Dollars?

~pickaxe

Cononish1314's picture

RBS prepping by cultivating their gardens?

Just noticed this

http://pro.fastmarkets.com/scoop/?id=43829&v=1&lang=en&cid=166799&type=1

Probably in no way related to The Secret Turdamist Prophecy.

And yes it's great to see the Desert Rats / Lydian rebels / Turd's Amerika Korps or whatever sweeping forward on such a broad front.

Fr. Bill's picture

... caution is good, but fear is irrational.

Ivars, I can only speak for myself, but I expect some others around here, like me, are expecting some sort of  attempt at a smackdown.  Perhaps it will not be very successful nor (even more likely) last very long.  But, after all these years of smacking down uppity silver rallies, we'd really be in the Twilight Zone if the Cartel simply muttered, "Oh drats!" and walked away with nary a smidgin of resistence. It's not so much "fear" that we feel, but well-conditioned anticipation.

I am encouraged by your informed assessment that last February is NOT the same environment we have today.

Meanwhile, I've got some dry powder waiting for that petulant putdown by the pissants in the plunderbund posse. If they knock the price down a dollar or more (please, pretty please, with sugar on it!), then I'll happily buy in and wait for their efforts to fail, as you've indicated they should.

notmessenger's picture

@Fr. Bill ... waiting to pull the trigger

Yep, just missed buying the dip by a day before it hit its upswing but now I am waiting patiently until it gets beat back down and then I will pull trigger.  Might not get it as cheaply as I could have last week but I fully expect it to be cheaper than if I were to buy it today.

sdstacker's picture

Have They Checked JPMs Vaults?

tyberious's picture

QE3 and the coming Election

No major change = Major Inflation)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, September 7th, 2012

Many of my customers are asking me if they think they will announce a QE III soon.  Of course they will.  It's not like the congress went off into some secret room and secretly did the right thing behind closed doors and balanced the budget while we weren't looking and then failed to announce it. 

Hello?  Is anyone paying attention?  To balance the budget, and stop printing money (no more QE's) Congress would have to stop spending about $1.5 trillion.  This means they would have to stop funding the military entirely, bringing our troops home from over 120 nations abroad, and close down all military bases, and dock all aircraft carriers, and shut down all nukes and close all the nuke programs, saving only about $800 billion/year.  And then, they'd have to completely end Obamacare, and in addition, stop funding medicare and medicade, and raise the Social Security retirement age to about 73.  I don't think any of that happened in some back room deal that they failed to announce.  Do you?  No?  You with me so far?  Then of course they will announce a QEIII soon.  Or maybe they won't "announce" the money printing, but they will print the money equivalent to a QEIII anyway without announcing it, because they already are doing that.

And it's not like the Federal Reserve has any political will either.  Do you think the Fed will tell the US Government, "Well, gee whiz, we've lent you enough money, and we have henceforth decided to stop lending you anything more until you balance the budget and we get paid back, ok?"  Sillyness.  No such thing will remotely happen.  Paid back in what?  There is less than $2 trillion in paper currency.  And the national debt is over $16 trillion.  Paid back with what?  In what?  Does the Fed need more electronic credits?  They have a monopoly to create those out of thin air, thus, they don't need any more.  They just want to keep their money making monopoly going and to not rock the boat.

If they do announce a QEIII, they must do so in a way as to lie, like they always lie.  So they will say, we were going to do a QEIII, but the economy is doing well, so we decided to delay it.  Or they will say, we were going to do a QEIII of $1.5 trillion, but the economy is doing so well, we decided we only needed a QEIII of $1 trillion, which is 33% less.  You know, as usual, they will put a positive spin on the fact that they are devaluing your money by printing more of it.

For more, see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#Printing_money

Neither party has any remote chance of dramatically reducing spending, there is no political will in this entire nation to do such a thing.  Except from Ron Paul or Gary Johnson.

Many investors are waiting until after the election.  For what?  Nothing major is going to change, except even more spending leading to exponentially more inflation and even faster rising silver and gold prices.  I've never seen so little difference between the two major candidates as in this election.

I suppose things might change if a lot of Tea Party Republican Congressmen get into office, but it's not likely that too many will be elected to effect a majority in both houses.  So, the spending as usual will continue for at least another 2 and a half, to four years, at least.

Silver prices have peaked about every two years.  The last peak of $50/oz. was about a year and a half ago.  Silver is due for a major price rise in the next six months to a year.  That's the trend, and it's already started.  Get on board.  Manipulation or not, lies or not, they are printing money like mad, and you need to get silver which is rare and is being used up by industry.

By the way, the way gold and silver prices rise during times like these is exponential.  That means that prices will rise at greater and greater percentage rise, every year, on average.  Get silver NOW!

=====

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.   The fundamentals indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen at any time.

ivars's picture

@tyberious

Exactly.

Grigeo's picture

8 gazillion hat tips

to Ivars.  If silver runs from $32 to $65 over 3 months, you are going to have to reincorporate that red line back in your silver chart.  smiley

You said right from the beginning that your silver / gold charts were often a couple months early on the move.

For the Turdite throwing on a short, Pailin is not doing that at the moment ("too dangerous").  This from an individual that was going long and short silver under $30, making money in both directions.  Shorting silver under $30, more intestinal fortitude than I will ever have.

Orange's picture

PHYS

Somebody mentioned that the Sprott gold shares are down as a result of dilution from the expanded offering.

My interpretation is that Sprott raises "x" amount of dollars, buys gold and adds it to the fund. The expanded fund now has more physical gold at whatever the price he buys it at. Hence, if this would happen simultaneously, which it does not, there would be no dilution.

If the gold price rises or falls significantly from when he raised the funds, this could affect the current share price. As was seen when he raised funds for pslv, the premium returns within a few weeks.

Byzantium's picture

@Fr.Bill

Likewise with the dry powder.

In terms of putting our current position in context, I believe that T.A./algo factors are bringing in money from the sidelines, and not least, prompted by expectations of QE. There is also the promise of the effects a new goldprice record in Euro and Rupees.

These are all formidable considerations. However, we have had no shortage of formidable considerations in the past, and the cartel responds to them all in the same way; let the metals rise till they have the profit takers on their side, and then attack. Then we get the elevator down.

We are not there yet, but they will try it on. If they fail, they will keep retreating to a higher price and try again, till it works. They can short to infinity if they really wanted.

Once that elevator down starts, nobody wants to catch the falling knife, they stand back, and watch out below.

The critical point here, is that it is business as normal so far; the criteria for HEH (being a profound change in the politics and structure of the PM market) has not yet shown its face. Unless and until it shows its face, I'll start taking silver profits just before we get to $40, and gold just before $1800. 

paulindoon's picture

Watch out - they are after our Silver

Sure hope not But here's a carton that suits:

'I've always longed to do something brave and courageous. So would you mind awfully telling me where you keep the silver?'

'I've always longed to do something brave and courageous. So would you mind awfully telling me where you keep the silver?'

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