Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 10, 2012 - 9:28am

Sept 12th: Extremely Negative or Euphoric Volatility Ahead?

Sept. 10, 2012, 12:00 a.m. EDT

Euro optimism won’t last for long

Commentary: Germans can still block or delay ECB aid program

By david[dot]marsh[at]londonandoxford[dot]com (David Marsh), MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Financial markets may chalk up gains for a bit longer following the latest instalment of Mario Draghi’s “do whatever it takes” performance to shore up weaker euro countries’ debt.

However, nerves will be running progressively thin. There is plenty of room for setbacks as traders digest the implications of the horrendously complex stand-off opening up between the European Central Bank president, the Bundesbank, and European governments.

While the different players tackle the awkward issues behind these various permutations, we may see a “phony war” across the heartlands of economic and monetary union (EMU). During this time, the ECB, far from wading into the market to fight speculation of euro “convertibility” (Draghi’s quaint name for the euro breaking up), may simply sit on its hands and do nothing. The longer this lull in hostilities lasts, the greater may be the ferocity when combat eventually resumes.

One point that seems to have escaped markets’ attention is that the German Parliament has an effective veto over the aid programs that have to be in place before the ECB can open up its heavy artillery.

So far, as Draghi and his colleagues cunningly planned, markets have rowed back from their oversold positions toward the end of July, using the prospect of ECB action as a justification to reverse some of their extreme bearishness on Spanish and Italian bonds and in some cases to take profits.....

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:21am

Land Grab/Why Now?- Japan to buy disputed isles, angering China


Japan to buy disputed isles, angering China

By Kiyoshi Takenaka and Sui-Lee Wee

TOKYO/BEIJING - Japan has agreed to buy a group of islands disputed with China from their private owners, prompting an angry rebuke from China a day after Chinese President Hu Jintao warned against such an "illegal" move. Full Article

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:00am


been away since yesterday afternoon. My home browser keeps sending me to a cached page at Cloudstream. Is there a cookie the TFMR site is looking for?

Sep 10, 2012 - 8:39am

"Gold Hits a Six Month High"

Actually, Gold In Euros Touches New Record High At EUR 1,360 Per Ounce

Sep 10, 2012 - 8:30am



Sep 10, 2012 - 8:00am

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article on Gold

"Gold Hits a Six Month High"

in today's wall street journal page C14

while it is too bad they didn't have an article in the weekend journal

the weekend journal is pretty light in content

Torpedo Fish
Sep 10, 2012 - 7:59am


nice "stimulus", makes my economy harder.... I mean stronger :)

Sep 10, 2012 - 7:44am

surfer girls

are the best @. as for what kind of butt that is, my guess is glock. really need a better look at the clip to be sure though.

in my opinion it is ok to see the metals pulling back a little here monday pre-game. a big gap open always leaves me uneasy. as far as i remember we have yet to not come back and close it. not that today could not be different. worst case for the longs here is of course the suckers rally. that dirty EE wants everyone who trades in paper getting another chance to get in here on a little pullback. we have j-hole FOMC on the 13th. JR is giving the green light right here and now on QEIII and his track record is impressive to date. of course worst case is the FED says no and the metals get whacked. if for some crazy reason that happens, sub-30. just hit s2 on the classic/ s3 on the fibb. $33.47 i know someone had that one in already.

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 33.36 33.47 33.53 33.64 33.7 33.81 33.87
Fibonacci 33.47 33.53 33.58 33.64 33.7 33.75 33.81
Camarilla 33.56 33.57 33.59 33.64 33.62 33.63 33.65
Woodie's 33.34 33.46 33.51 33.63 33.68 33.8 33.85

the surf is up, raiders/chargers on MNF. my hope is we take this thing up to 36-38 this week, you know a buck or so a day and celebrate again friday in the speak. i;ll take my chances. many great things come to and from you this week.

good morning Xty!!

Sep 10, 2012 - 7:36am

stimulus hopes rising everywhere:

Weak China trade data raises stimulus hopes

September 10, 2012 - 4:38PM

Weak Chinese trade data has underlined the likelihood of more Beijing-backed spending to deal with the damage done to the domestic economy by firms cutting production, inventories and imports in the face of anaemic global demand.

Imports fell 2.6 per cent on the year in August, confounding expectations of a 3.5 per cent rise. Exports grew 2.7 per cent, below forecasts for a 3 per cent rise.

Such weak data is grim news in a country where exports generate 25 per cent of gross domestic product, support an estimated 200 million jobs and where analysts already expect the economy to have its weakest year of expansion since 1999.

"The import surprise on the downside is very unusual. It is an alarming sign for the government and they probably saw it coming," Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, told Reuters.

Read more:

Sep 10, 2012 - 7:30am

The nice suits are going to "take steps to bolster growth":

Asia-Pacific nations pledge growth, fret over economy

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia | Sun Sep 9, 2012 6:36am EDT

(Reuters) - Asia-Pacific nations including China, the United States and Japan promised measures to boost growth on Sunday and rejected limits on food exports to try to revive the flagging global economy.

Countries on the Pacific Rim ended a two-day summit on an island off the Russian port city of Vladivostok by expressing concern about the state of the world economy, global food security and growing signs of protectionism.

The 21 members of the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group agreed to slash import duties on "green technology", take steps to bolster growth and liberalise trade to counter problems heightened by Europe's debt crisis.....

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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