Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 10, 2012 - 8:39am

"Gold Hits a Six Month High"

Actually, Gold In Euros Touches New Record High At EUR 1,360 Per Ounce

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:00am


been away since yesterday afternoon. My home browser keeps sending me to a cached page at Cloudstream. Is there a cookie the TFMR site is looking for?

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:21am

Land Grab/Why Now?- Japan to buy disputed isles, angering China


Japan to buy disputed isles, angering China

By Kiyoshi Takenaka and Sui-Lee Wee

TOKYO/BEIJING - Japan has agreed to buy a group of islands disputed with China from their private owners, prompting an angry rebuke from China a day after Chinese President Hu Jintao warned against such an "illegal" move. Full Article

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:28am

Sept 12th: Extremely Negative or Euphoric Volatility Ahead?

Sept. 10, 2012, 12:00 a.m. EDT

Euro optimism won’t last for long

Commentary: Germans can still block or delay ECB aid program

By david[dot]marsh[at]londonandoxford[dot]com (David Marsh), MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Financial markets may chalk up gains for a bit longer following the latest instalment of Mario Draghi’s “do whatever it takes” performance to shore up weaker euro countries’ debt.

However, nerves will be running progressively thin. There is plenty of room for setbacks as traders digest the implications of the horrendously complex stand-off opening up between the European Central Bank president, the Bundesbank, and European governments.

While the different players tackle the awkward issues behind these various permutations, we may see a “phony war” across the heartlands of economic and monetary union (EMU). During this time, the ECB, far from wading into the market to fight speculation of euro “convertibility” (Draghi’s quaint name for the euro breaking up), may simply sit on its hands and do nothing. The longer this lull in hostilities lasts, the greater may be the ferocity when combat eventually resumes.

One point that seems to have escaped markets’ attention is that the German Parliament has an effective veto over the aid programs that have to be in place before the ECB can open up its heavy artillery.

So far, as Draghi and his colleagues cunningly planned, markets have rowed back from their oversold positions toward the end of July, using the prospect of ECB action as a justification to reverse some of their extreme bearishness on Spanish and Italian bonds and in some cases to take profits.....

Raoul Dusentier
Sep 10, 2012 - 9:48am

NightWatch newsletter For the night of 9 September 2012

The latest NightWatch newsletter contains some interesting material regarding the conflict in Syra. Essentially it confirms what Lindsay Williams has been saying. Here is a copy of the whole newsletter, the interesting bits regarding Syria starts in the middle of it.


For the night of 9 September 2012

Russia-US: Following Russia's inclusion into the World Trade Organization, US Secretary of State Clinton said the US should now normalize trade relations with Russia so that American businesses can benefit from trade with one of the world's leading economies.

The sanctions have origins in a 1974 law known as Jackson-Vanik and are waived each year.

Comment: This is another American shell game - there is no pea -- because the sanctions have been waived. The Russians presumably are supposed to be grateful for receiving nothing of value from the US. That is what is known as a bluff.

Meanwhile, Russian President Putin announced last week at an Asian-Pacific summit in Vladivostok, that Russia has tilted East, meaning the Moscow government intends to place more focus on trade and investment in Pacific Rim countries, which presumably would include Mexico and all of the Pacific countries of Central and South America.

Iran: The Iranian rial fell to an all-time low 9 September, trading at roughly 24,000 rials to the US dollar, exchange traders said. The official exchange rate is fixed at 12,260 rials to the dollar.

The government is threatening to seize control of the money market.

Comment: Every commentator judged the collapse of the rial is an economic disaster for Iran, but no one judged it would spark a political movement to overthrow the government, which is the ultimate purpose of economic warfare.

NightWatch learned in studying more than 60 government overthrows that social and economic grievance are necessary but are never sufficient causes for a government overthrow, as long as the guns remain loyal. Economic hardship, by itself, will lead to political action. That is one of the lessons of analysis from the past 65 years of US intelligence.

The Western hope is that collective punishment through economic hardship will be so severe that the government will halt the nuclear program or be overthrown. Economic warfare works on many levels but not against a leadership that thrives on suffering, as do the Shiites of Iran. Hardship reinforces their conviction of their righteousness and their determination that they are on the right path, even if the people are suffering.

Iraq: Attacks occurred in at least 30 cities in every part of Iraq today. A total of 107 people died and 484 were injured.

Comment: Attacks occurred in nearly every major town, regardless of sect or ethnicity. This is the worst single day of violence in at least five years.

Most commentaries have linked the surge in violence to the conviction and death sentence given by an Iraqi criminal court to Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Muslim on the run for the past year.

It is premature to blame the violence on Sunni militants, but if they prove to be the principle agents of violence, then Iraq must be considered to be returning to sectarian civil war.

Syria: Comment: A doctor from Doctors Without Borders returned from Aleppo after spending two weeks in Aleppo provided context and contrast about Western news reporting on the Syrian fighting. This is an anecdotal report but by a credible source.

Dr. Beres said foreign Islamists intent on turning Syria into an autocratic theocracy have swollen the ranks of rebels fighting to topple President Bashar al-Asad and think they are waging a "holy war."

Beres returned from Syria on Friday evening after spending two weeks working clandestinely in a hospital in the besieged northern Syrian city.

In an interview in Paris on Saturday, the 71-year-old said that contrary to his previous visits to Homs and Idlib earlier this year about 60 percent of those he had treated in Aleppo this time had been rebel fighters and that at least half of them had been non-Syrian.

"It's really something strange to see. They are directly saying that they aren't interested in Bashar al-Asad's fall, but are thinking about how to take power afterwards and set up an Islamic state with sharia law to become part of the world Emirate," the doctor said.

The foreign jihadists included young Frenchmen who said they were inspired by Mohammed Merah, a self-styled Islamist militant from Toulouse, who killed seven people in March in the name of al-Qaida.

Comment: The implications of this testimony, by a doctor who was working with the Syrian rebels, is the uprising is not Syrian; is not interested in democracy or anyone's rights and wants to use Syria as the base for a terrorist emirate. The Western countries are helping create the terrorist base they say they are fighting, based on the testimony of Dr. Beres.

The NightWatch contention for the past two years is that US and Western policymakers are way over their heads in Syria and in the Arab Spring countries of the Middle East in general. Dr. Beres' testimony tends to reinforce that position. Western intelligence services still do not know who is fighting the Syrian forces. They continue to support positions that clearly are against long term Western interests.

In any event, several respectable analytical commentaries this week concluded that the lightly armed opposition stands no chance against Syrian forces for an indeterminate future. The opposition act precisely like autonomous and competing criminal gangs… after 18 months of Western support.

End of NightWatch for 9 September.

Sep 10, 2012 - 9:56am

A Year Ago Last Week

Quote from Darryl Robert Schoon on Kitco:

Last year on September 6, 2011, gold reached a high of $1920; but when bullion banks intervened by pushing gold lease rates deep into negative territory in early September, they made sure enough leased gold would reach the markets to drive the price of gold lower.

So on the one year anniversary, when lease rates again spike to negative and then back to "normal":

September 10, 2012
1 m -0.1180% +0.2220
2 m -0.0505% +0.3195
3 m -0.0097% +0.4003
6 m 0.1827% +0.6827
1 y 0.4735% +1.0235

Are we to accept that this is just "bad data"? It happens every month like clock work, errors would reasonably be assumed to be random. Whoever leased that gold a year ago to facilitate the smashdown needs to roll those leases. That is what I say is going on here (sorry S Roche, but just saying "it is bad data" without some kind of link or explanation is not an adequate explanation to me).

Just pointing out the coincidences.


PS Looks like surfer girl packs a Glock to me as well.

PSS New lease rate data posted:

Shows what I was referring to.

Gold Lease Rates

September 10, 2012
1 m -0.1180% +0.2220
2 m -0.0505% +0.3195
3 m -0.0097% +0.4003
6 m 0.1827% +0.6827
1 y -0.5440%


Fresh data from the Kitco site as of 8:55 central time.

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:04am

S Roche / China/HK gold recycling

I read that link up above and I've wondered roughly the same thing but not in the same context of what Bron Suchecki lays out. What would stop them from doing so?

Are the Chinese/Hong Kong publicly recycling the same large amounts of gold back and forth to some extent while at the same time increasing the 'public awareness ' gold tonnage number that China seems willing to let people know about without an actually total or official tally behind the numbers being floated? Smart move on their part if they are doing so. Perception is huge.

In the end, when they make a currency move, it only needs to be believable and having most people & Govt.'s on board with an irrefutable/unaudited number. A number that will never be publicly audited but one that will be based on trust/faith. There is no way that D.C or anyone else can demand that China prove their reserves because if I'm the Chinese Govt. I'd play turnaround and demand the same auditing from everyone else. That will never happen and I think is a critical element to how this possible gold/monetary integration takes place.

That will never happen. And in the meantime, all of this HK/China gold movement and massive tonnage that China seems (possibly accurately) to be accumulating is the premise that is also accumulating in the public and private sector minds....China has massive gold holdings that are building quickly.

Believability and selling the idea is a big part of faith and confidence. Just look what it did for the U.S. for many decades with NO gold backing and just a paper promise.

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:08am


Is wantin it baddddddddd!

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:18am
Sep 10, 2012 - 10:19am

Gold gets some powerful friends

Sept. 10, 2012, 12:53 a.m. EDT

Gold gets some powerful friends

Commentary: Wall Street notes gold’s strength

By pbrimelow[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Peter Brimelow), MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Fridays seem to have become toxic for gold bears.

Aug. 31st saw the metal spoil the long weekend by jumping $30.50, or 1.8%, on a CME Dec gold floor close basis. Sept. 7 saw another big jump — $34.90, or 2.1% on the Dec. contract, to $1,740.50.

The effect was to push the magisterial $US5X3 point and figure chart maintained by Australia’s The Privateer into the most bullish posture this year, smashing decisively above the downtrend line in place since last summer. See chart.

Perhaps the bears will get their rumored powerful friends to abolish Fridays! Radical gold bugs have long argued that these friends do exist. See gold fizzles or gold fixed column.

The idea got a much-discussed airing this week in a long interview with Gold Anti Trust Action (GATA) Committee Chairman Bill Murphy on the Russia Today TV channel. Read more on Gata interview.

Even the eminently respectable institutional service, The Gartman Letter, expressed sympathy with the GATA bullish view of the silver market on Thursday.

The Privateer summarized the significance of gold’s move: “In a bit more than two weeks, since Aug. 22, spot future gold is up $100. Almost all of that rise has in fact come since August 30 when gold closed at $1,657.

“On Sept. 7, it closed at $1,740. Gold’s high for 2012 is $1,789, the spot future close on Feb. 23. A couple of more rises like the one on Sept. 7 and that will be comfortably taken out.”

The Got Gold Report, in a nice phrase, said: “the gold market has been as strong as an acre of garlic.” It published on Saturday in the free area of its website a useful chart-based discussion on gold in other currencies. See website.

GotGold’s conclusion: “Clearly gold is once again gaining purchasing power in most or all fiat currencies. The charts above are....

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:54am
Sep 10, 2012 - 11:15am

as soon as....

Turd posts his newest blog entry.... I will be posting my piece that should stir up some nice DEBATE..LOL. In the next several days, I have a longer follow up post about the new U.S. shale gas revisions and its overall impact on gold and silver mining going forward....

Urban Roman SRSrocco
Sep 10, 2012 - 11:20am


Why do I expect your report will predict more-of-the-same-only-worse, with the miners dithering around while their products take off for the moon?

Long oil and gas royalty trusts ...

Sep 10, 2012 - 11:25am


"The Breakup"
Sep 10, 2012 - 11:28am


....far too quiet, but understandable. Flat-lining until Sept. 12th/13th.

The sound of silence - Paul Simon
Bongo Jim
Sep 10, 2012 - 11:31am


The looks on those two guys faces tells the story...but did you notice that Joe is sitting on someones lap?

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:05pm


Not certain we won't see more before.

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:19pm

Sprott Interview


Published September 10, 2012 | By admin

listening to the interview, I just heard it's from 2011.

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:27pm


Rocco, I read your piece over at the Doc's site.

Just because you ask the question does not mean it's true. These are the same tactics the MSM uses to cast doubt into peoples minds and conditions them on what to think and who to believe.

If you have bigger balls than Alex Jones or can do a better job to alert the sheeple to what is going on and what is in store for this country, then I suggest you put your face, family, and location out there, and be another leader.

We need more leaders, not character assassins. Who is next on your list, Barnhard?

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:57pm

Credit Due:

"Capitalism with out bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell"

That was from Jim Rogers.

Sep 10, 2012 - 6:35pm


"We need more leaders"

No we don't. "Leaders" are what got us into this mess. What we need are more people who make decisions for themselves regardless of what the herd is doing. That is even more important in the liberty movement. Arm yourself with sound ideas and very basic reasoning skills then leaders become irrelevant.

bronsuchecki ¤
Sep 10, 2012 - 8:45pm

China perception management


Interesting theory on China doing round tripping to increase perceptions of how much gold they have.

Nick at is crunching HK stats dept numbers on gold exports and imports with China. They show that the actual NET imports by China from HK are lower than reported (but still strong). For example the ZH reported July 2012 figure of 75.8 tonnes when the actual net imports were 45.8t; the April 2012 figure of 101.7t is actually net imports of 67.4t.

Also, if you look at just the HK import numbers you see a big jump in March 2012 onwards. Prior to that the average monthly figure was around 7,500 kg. Then from March 2012 it jumps to an average of 30,000 kg with a corresponding increase in exports. This supports GMFS’ “round tripping” comments.

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:05pm

Jim Rogers on RT "Peter Lavelle's Panel at APEC"

Here's the link...

Has capitalism lost its compass? How should capitalism be defined? How flawed is the system and could it still be revived? And is there any real alternative to capitalism? Peter Lavelle is discussing these issues with his distinguished panelists at the APEC 2012 summit hold in Vladivostok. Jim Rogers and Artyom Volynets are there to defend capitalism in its modern form, while Chandran Nair and Frank-Jurgen Richter are arguing that capitalism has indeed lost its compass.

Sep 11, 2012 - 8:39pm

@ Puck

Puck said " No we don't. "Leaders" are what got us into this mess. What we need are more people who make decisions for themselves regardless of what the herd is doing. That is even more important in the liberty movement. Arm yourself with sound ideas and very basic reasoning skills then leaders become irrelevant.

Wrong again puck.

We need leaders informed about the new world order and their intent to inform those who cannot see or do not understand.

I suspect you stay to yourself and when family and neighbors come for help you will just shoot at them and say to bad.

To bad for you puck, you should have been a good leader and roll model and helped the sheeple before the collapse.

But I read allot of your nonsensical posts, so I'm not at all surprised.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
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4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
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