Send In The Clowns

414
Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-25792000-unemployed-and-underemployed

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst: https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2500-gold-six-months-2012-9#ixzz25jNMcMyf

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-anno...

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  414 Comments

Zoltan
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:13am

Dearest Turd

Any chance you could comment on the lease rates?

Gold Lease Rates

September 07, 2012
1 m -0.3440% -0.0040
2 m -0.3740% -0.0040
3 m -0.4080% +0.0020
6 m -0.5020% -0.0020
1 y -0.5480% -0.0080

Funny how the chart spikes back to "normal" already even though the rates haven't changed yet. By next week it will be flat as a pancake. Just another lease rate spike down the memory hole.

Sorry to harp on about this. It is a big deal.

Z

Horst
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:14am

From last thread

"For Traders:

I wouldn't be selling silver now unless I thought that QE would not be announced next week.

If you think there is a chance that it won't happen, or won't happen overtly, then today or early next week is a good time to book profits.

Happily, as a phys stacker, I don't have to worry about such gut wrenching decisions."

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell for QE next week. There are no mainstream economic indicators for the Fed to justify new easing. GDP is still up and unemployment is down. Even is that IS BS data, it's what the Fed uses and what 90% of the population believes, so nothing to warrant further easing for the time being.

Air Garcia
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:19am

considering selling in front of the takedown?

turd,

you planning on selling your options around the 35 mark prior to the takedown? not looking for trading advice - just wanting your experienced opinion. . .

-jg

reefman
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:20am
SilverTree
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:20am
underwaterfrog
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:25am

Hahahah @ Jon 'nutless' Nadler

I'm sure everybody here shares my distatste for that dizzy clown over @ kitco. He published his latest commentary a little prematurely. He was very pleased (and gloating in his usual condescending tone) to note how G&S had erased most of their gains in the overnight session.

Jon, you're a joke, everybody knows it!

How can anybody be so consistently assed up regarding a market in which they cover exclusively. (rhetorical, clearly he's sucking off the elite teet.)

Rui
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:26am

SEND IN THE CLOWNS - a beautiful song tho

Award winning work by Judy Collins

Video unavailable
Dr G Zoltan
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:28am

@Zoltan: Lease rates

Zoltan, the lease rates have changed. Your data is incorrect, but the chart you posted IS correct. See here: https://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

Gold rates all have a positive change as of this moment. The 1 year is up +1.0160 to .476%. That matches the chart you posted but not the data.

Green Lantern
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:32am

I don't think there's a

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell for QE next week. There are no mainstream economic indicators for the Fed to justify new easing.

Watch Dollar-Euro cross-rates. Currency Wars.

Shnozberries
Sep 7, 2012 - 11:34am

Why is it?

My ship always seems to come in when metals are cruising up. Then at the precise moment my ship runs out, BAM! Cartel raid. FU, Shnoz, you know you should convert fiat now but you can't. This metals game is one big elaborate ruse that some jackass with access to my information is playing just to get his rocks off by playing with my emotions.

Such is life on 100% commission.

This rally isn't the blastoff. I fully expect a massive raid. Only this time I'll be ready.

<Insert> Clip of William Wallace yelling "HOLD" that I could not find.

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