Send In The Clowns

Fri, Sep 7, 2012 - 10:59am

I guess now we know why the President looked so glum last night.

Yikes!! That was some lousy BLSBS data this morning. No way that The Coug, The Shill or LIESman could spin it any other way. That said, there will be A LOT of talk over the weekend about the stated "unemployment rate" and how it fell to "just 8.1%". If you choose to be a sheep, you can swallow this number and feel good that the economy is improving. If you choose to be educated and speak intelligently about what is really going on, I ask that you please take time to read the two links below:

As you might expect, the incredibly gloomy NFP number has spiked the metals as these markets anticipate the eventual and imminent re-introduction of overt QE. Both have cleared resistance at $1720-25 and $33, respectively, and look poised to rally further later today and through the early part of next week.

Not to put a damper on your excitement level for today but now would be a good time to go back and review this post from Wednesday: Here is the summary of the post:

"This is a "watch" not a "warning". If, next week, gold rallies toward 1750 and above while silver pushes through $33 and toward $35, I may be forced to issue a full-scale warning. Even then, the warning will simply be to alert traders to lighten positions and hedge for imminent weakness. Long-term stackers should still use any and all dips to add to their positions in preparation for much higher prices in the weeks and months to come."

There can be little doubt that open interest, particularly in gold, will surge today. There is also little doubt that price will rise toward 1750-60 next week. Then what happens? This:

September 13 FOMC Meeting
Two-day meeting, September 12-13
Press Conference, September 13

With QE3+ now beginning to be "priced in", what will happen if The Bernank does not start the presses next week? A Cartel raid, perhaps? Probably. Again, though, as stated in the "warning flag" post, any raid will be temporary and will only stand as an opportunity to purchase more metal at a lower price. You must remember, brief 10% corrections happen quite frequently during metal bull runs. Go back and look at January 2011 as an example. Same thing could happen here. Silver could pull back from $35+ to $32+ and gold could fall back 5% to $1680 or so. If it does, no big deal. Simply BTFD. The party has only just begun.

To that end, you should read this as Tom Fitzpatrick is a very well-respected analyst:

Along those lines, since we are only just beginning a powerful, new upleg in the metals, perhaps now is the time to consider joining "The Army". Remember, the first calendar month is only $100. If you like what you see, you can continue in October at the full rate. Not that I encourage active trading but I recognize that there are quite literally thousands of people still doing it. Why not learn from the best?? &

Lastly, as you know, forex is nearly impossible to trade and chart effectively. That's why, when I get one right, I like to tout it just a bit. We've been watching this top in The Pig for some time now and I gave you 80 as a target a few days back. That forecast is looking pretty good and, after a brief bounce, 78 is beginning to look likely.

I'll have a new podcast for you later today as well as some analysis of the CoT numbers, so please check back when you can. The podcast is with our pal, Ned, and it specifically addresses the miners and the hows and whys of owning them.

Have a fun day and a great weekend!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 11, 2012 - 8:39pm

@ Puck

Puck said " No we don't. "Leaders" are what got us into this mess. What we need are more people who make decisions for themselves regardless of what the herd is doing. That is even more important in the liberty movement. Arm yourself with sound ideas and very basic reasoning skills then leaders become irrelevant.

Wrong again puck.

We need leaders informed about the new world order and their intent to inform those who cannot see or do not understand.

I suspect you stay to yourself and when family and neighbors come for help you will just shoot at them and say to bad.

To bad for you puck, you should have been a good leader and roll model and helped the sheeple before the collapse.

But I read allot of your nonsensical posts, so I'm not at all surprised.

Sep 10, 2012 - 10:05pm

Jim Rogers on RT "Peter Lavelle's Panel at APEC"

Here's the link...

Has capitalism lost its compass? How should capitalism be defined? How flawed is the system and could it still be revived? And is there any real alternative to capitalism? Peter Lavelle is discussing these issues with his distinguished panelists at the APEC 2012 summit hold in Vladivostok. Jim Rogers and Artyom Volynets are there to defend capitalism in its modern form, while Chandran Nair and Frank-Jurgen Richter are arguing that capitalism has indeed lost its compass.

Bron Suchecki¤
Sep 10, 2012 - 8:45pm

China perception management


Interesting theory on China doing round tripping to increase perceptions of how much gold they have.

Nick at is crunching HK stats dept numbers on gold exports and imports with China. They show that the actual NET imports by China from HK are lower than reported (but still strong). For example the ZH reported July 2012 figure of 75.8 tonnes when the actual net imports were 45.8t; the April 2012 figure of 101.7t is actually net imports of 67.4t.

Also, if you look at just the HK import numbers you see a big jump in March 2012 onwards. Prior to that the average monthly figure was around 7,500 kg. Then from March 2012 it jumps to an average of 30,000 kg with a corresponding increase in exports. This supports GMFS’ “round tripping” comments.

Sep 10, 2012 - 6:35pm


"We need more leaders"

No we don't. "Leaders" are what got us into this mess. What we need are more people who make decisions for themselves regardless of what the herd is doing. That is even more important in the liberty movement. Arm yourself with sound ideas and very basic reasoning skills then leaders become irrelevant.

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:57pm

Credit Due:

"Capitalism with out bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell"

That was from Jim Rogers.

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:27pm


Rocco, I read your piece over at the Doc's site.

Just because you ask the question does not mean it's true. These are the same tactics the MSM uses to cast doubt into peoples minds and conditions them on what to think and who to believe.

If you have bigger balls than Alex Jones or can do a better job to alert the sheeple to what is going on and what is in store for this country, then I suggest you put your face, family, and location out there, and be another leader.

We need more leaders, not character assassins. Who is next on your list, Barnhard?

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:19pm

Sprott Interview


Published September 10, 2012 | By admin

listening to the interview, I just heard it's from 2011.

Sep 10, 2012 - 12:05pm


Not certain we won't see more before.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Bongo Jim
Sep 10, 2012 - 11:31am


The looks on those two guys faces tells the story...but did you notice that Joe is sitting on someones lap?

Sep 10, 2012 - 11:28am


....far too quiet, but understandable. Flat-lining until Sept. 12th/13th.

The sound of silence - Paul Simon

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Recent Comments

by OceanX, 28 min 37 sec ago
by Reignbird, 31 min 36 sec ago
by Phoenix79, 51 min 24 sec ago
by uni59, 1 hour 3 min ago
by indiana rod, 1 hour 3 min ago