Seymour Butts

384
Thu, Sep 6, 2012 - 11:18am

I have no idea why I titled this post the way I did. I guess, after a morning spent on the rollercoaster with a soundtrack of Draghi-speak, I must be feeling a little punchy.

Anyway, if you haven't yet reviewed the previous post, please do so. Though Draghi has capped the rally for now, any weakness today will long since be forgotten if we get an 80,000 NFP tomorrow.

It's great to see gold back above 1700 and silver is pushing up against the magical 33. These levels could very easily be the basis for a consolidation phase and, if the BLSBS comes in stronger than expected, they might very well be. But the charts look terrific and, as stated in the previous post, the CoT likely has room in it for a further extension of this rally before The Cartels aggressively step in. Therefore, I still think that gold may see 1750+ before any type of significant raid occurs. Silver could easily extend toward 35, too. We'll see. Tomorrow will be an important day.

GATA's Bill Murphy has been making the rounds as of late. He was in Washington for meetings yesterday and his schedule included a visit with The Lovely Lauren. Please take the time to watch this entire clip. Lauren asks great questions and Bill provides articulate answers.

GATA's Bill Murphy on the JP Morgan Silver Shortage and the next Bullion Bank Run!

Speaking of the BLSBS, anyone silly enough to waste time watching O'bottom tonight may, as a bonus, get a tip-off regarding tomorrow's data. https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/05/obamas-thursday-night-secret-about-jobs/

Regarding Draghi and the ECB, a much larger moment looms next Wednesday when the German Constitutional Court rules on whether Germany can participate in some of the ECB/EU rescue plans. I saw John Browne at FreedomFest. He's a very sharp guy and he has an excellent summary here: https://www.europac.net/commentaries/september_12th_looms_large_germany

Here's a brief but solid interview of GoldMoney's Alasdair Macleod. Recall that I "met" Alasdair last month and came away very impressed with his knowledge and wisdom. https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/newsdesk/cometis-interview-with-alasdair-macleod.html?gmrefcode=gata

And I'm sure that these two stories are completely unrelated. Got UCO? https://www.debka.com/article/22336/Turkish-officers-take-command-of-Syrian-rebel-brigades-N-Israel-on-alert & https://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/06/25-killed-in-turkey-ammunition-depot-blast/

Finally, today, I simply want to draw your attention to our current group of advertisers and supporters. Internet sites can be "noisy" with ads and I know that sometimes they can be easy to overlook. The only ad space I sell is along the right side of the homepage, above and below the kitco charts. Your tour, this morning, begins at the top of the page.

  • First, there's a block for the Hard Asset Alliance. As discussed last month, the HAA is our bullion/coin affiliation. Any purchases made there that initiate from this site generate a small commission for yours truly. You can read more here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4087/finally-tfmr-bullion-and-coin-affiliation
  • Next is our newest sponsor, MiningStockValuator.com. This is a subscription service but it also offers plenty of information free of charge. You can read more here: https://miningstockvaluator.com/goldmember.php. Once you've checked it out, if you decide to subscribe you should use the promo code "turdite" and you'll get a 25% discount. Anyone who is currently interested in, or investing in, the miners should strongly consider this service.
  • The next block is a Google ad. The content here is provided by Google on an individual basis, according to the cookies placed on your computer by other sites that you frequent.
  • Below that is a marketing piece for Santa's company, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration. Jim decided a few months back that he wanted to raise investor awareness of TRX and help support some of the websites that he considers valuable. I am honored that he chose TFMR as part of this program.
  • Directly below the kitco charts, you'll find an ad for Provident Metals. They are a great bullion and coin dealer and I encourage you to click their ad/link the next time you are ready to add to your stack. As always, you should be shopping around for the best deal and, though HAA is our direct affiliation, you should obviously consider other options, too. Provident provides great customer service and I appreciate their support of my efforts.
  • Lastly, I'll soon be adding a "BUY" button, next to the "DONATE" button at the top of the page. What can you buy, you ask? The site benefits from any purchase you make at Amazon, provided you go directly to Amazon from TFMR. We also have a link to our "TurdMart" where you can purchase all sorts of fabulous TurdGear. (Never too early for some Christmas shopping!) https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/store I've also added a "prepping" affiliation. Though we don't have the link up yet, I encourage you to check them out. Pretty cool stuff and TFMR gets a little commishkey from this place, too, if you choose to buy anything. https://www.stpaulmercantile.com/index.php?ref=Turd&action=store&page=FamilyPreparedness

OK, that's all for now. The metals are rebounding and looking good. Though the basis for my "historic" rally has not yet been factored into the markets (at least I don't think so), I'd like to think that my faith in the coming blastoff inspired you to hang in there and add to positions when silver was languishing between $26 and $28. Now approaching $33, we are all in the enviable position of being UP and silver still has a long ways to run.

Have a great day and be ready for tomorrow!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  384 Comments

Xeno
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:23pm

Coincidence that Gartman gets

Coincidence that Gartman gets bullish just as Bill Murphy makes a broad disclosure?

I think not. Gartman's usual cabal selling to the plebes top signal is in play.

Irksome
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:28pm

@stingbee30

'we need to give him some respect and appreciation' - the hell we do.

'This is still a Democracy' - problem is, we were never supposed to be a democracy. And with 165 million people receiving money from the government, democracy just guarantees that these 165 million will vote themselves more money from the 150 million people who actually pay taxes.

If you are objecting to talking about politics, don't post about politics. But if you do, don't be surprised to find that some of us don't agree that we 'need' to do anything you say.

ratioarbitrage
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:28pm

UST 10 year yield makes a higher low

I think it is fair to say that what we have seen today in the Treasury yield is an impulse move and will not be reversed quickly or substantially enough to stop it being a higher low.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND

With increasing US uncertainty surrounding the election, and having put a higher low in place, I will also be expecting to see a higher high in the coming weeks. Given the hype over the BVerfG I am expecting it to be a fudge. The price of silver should maintain its 20x multiple of UST yield as it rises towards 2 percent (around $40). This is concordant with my expectations of a completed 3 month impulse move of ~ 50% from the $28 low, matching the similar percentage move in the autumn of 2010. This should then be followed by a slower rising phase.

The man who stole a leopard
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:31pm

Disrepect for Obama?

Seems to be doing a good job on his own.

Magpie
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:31pm

If this is not the place for political discussions

why bring it up? And, btw, this is NOT a democracy, it is a Republic. Maybe not well-kept, but a Republic nonetheless.

Byzantium
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:32pm

@Stingbee

old Hungarian joke:

The thought police call in citizen X, and interrogate him:

Are you happy living here as a citizen in Hungary?

I can't complain.

Are you happy with your work and pay?

I can't complain.

With your accommodation?

I can't complain.

With your government?

I can't complain.

So why do you want to go to America?

Because there I can complain!

Geddit? Complaining is the very foundation of freedom! Don't mess with our right, or tendency to complain.

ag1969
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:37pm

@stingbee

it all depends on what you use for a baseline. I am not from a foreign country, so my comparison for Obama is whether or not he is true to his oath to defend the constitution of the United States. As a United States Citizen I am embarrassed and disgusted with Obama. He is a liar, a thief, and a mass murderer. He has consistently sided with unconstitutionality, policies that history has proven fail every time they are tried, and he seems to harbor nothing but contempt for the sovereign citizens of this country.

"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize." -Voltaire (I stole that from 321)

Just because our Country may still be better than some others, does not mean we should only exercise our right to free speech when we fall to dead last. When we have a leader who his not following his oath to the people, we have a responsibility to shout it from the rooftops so we never lose our freedom.

punchbowl
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:42pm

stingbee

Very few here like Obama OR Romney for that matter. They are the same on important issues like war, economics, and constitutional degradation (Obama a constitution scholar who signed the NDAA when everyone was on holidays? pitiful) because they work for the same puppeteers. Their differences lie in nonsense subjects like gay marriage which can be reduced to discussions of what colour lipstick, blue or red, to put on the pig.

waking up to this left right paradigm is paramount

pourty
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:42pm

@stingbee re: Politics

Perhaps this will help. Please understand that most of us from the US on this site grew up during a time of relative freedom and prosperity compared to today. Where liberty and love of God were cherished traditions. This country was founded on these ideals.

But we are the last sons of liberty. In the last 200 years our country has gone from Liberty to Tyranny, and we of this generation are the final watchers on the tower. We are watching our country degrade into a tyrannical socialist state before our very eyes. And while this has been occuring gradually over the last 30+ years, in the last 11 years it has been moving at an alarming pace.

So now we are awake, and many of us are coming to understand how we ended up here, and are growing quite angry about it, because we were taught all our lives that we live in Freedom and Prosperity under the grace of Almighty God, and it has turned into a lie.

I understand how a person from a war-torn dictatorship or communist country would come here and think how much better it is. But understand that is NOT our history. Our history is one of individual liberty, and where you see an improvement in your circumstance, we see the opposite.

And please, do not refer to my nation as a "Democracy". I deplore democracy as our founding father's did. We are a Republic. Learn the difference.

boatman
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:42pm

obozo

obozo .....................obozo

did i mention obozo?

opticsguy
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:44pm

BHO on a girls's bike

I want to see him do what I've seen in Amsterdam: Biking while smoking a cigarrentte and talking on the phone.

reefman
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:44pm

Question, since Draghi is

Question, since Draghi is going to be doing unlimited money printing.... how come the metals didn't react very well? Was it all "priced in" over night? What's up with the limp wristed silver today?

Barth Vader
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:47pm

Seymour Butts

fyi,

Seymour Butts (not his real name, kind'a like Ben Dover. how do they come up with this :)? ) is a porn producer from the states. He even had his own tv show once about his private life that was shown on TV even here (being not-USA).

Lady Gaugau
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:47pm

@stingbee

I find it quite amusing that you feign to have fled from some oppressive socialist government, but have no problem with the U.S. going that way. That's why I find your post to be as phony as a 3-dollar bill. Clever how you insert "Mr." where it would not be at all common in everyday conversation. You've been on this site for more than a year now, so you think that will somehow make us believe you are a recent immigrant with a heart filled with gratitude to live in such a freedom? Why not just be honest about who you really are and the agenda you've been instructed to follow.

Tube
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:48pm
Swineflogger
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:51pm

Obama Stimulus Explained

Sometime this year, we taxpayers will again receive another 'Economic Stimulus' payment.

This is indeed a very exciting program, and I'll explain it by
using a Q & A format:

Q. What is an 'Economic Stimulus' payment ?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.


Q.. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.


Q. So the government is giving me back my own
money?
A. Only a smidgen of it.


Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a
high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.


Q. But isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.


Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U.S. economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:

* If you spend the stimulus money at Wal-Mart, the money will go to China or Sri Lanka .

* If you spend it on gasoline, your money will go to the Arabs.

* If you purchase a computer, it will go to India , Taiwan or China .

* If you purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico , Honduras , and Guatemala ..

* If you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea .

* If you purchase useless stuff, it will go to Taiwan .

* If you pay your credit cards off, or buy stock, it will go
to management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.


Instead, keep the money in America by:

1) Spending it at yard sales, or

2) Going to ball games, or

3) Spending it on prostitutes, or

4) Beer or

5) Tattoos.

(These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S. )

Conclusion:
Go to a ball game with a tattooed prostitute that you
met at a yard sale and drink beer all day!


No need to thank me, I'm just glad I could be of help.

agNau
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:54pm

All the same....

Exception, Ron Paul. 30+ Years of overt support and defense of the Constitution. No bending to poll results. No voting against Liberty. To date Bush senior, Clinton, Little Bush, and Obama, have all moved against our rights in ever increasing doses. This election process was and is about freedom. Unfortunately, the deck has now been stacked against that outcome. Think. Once you see open attacks on our Constitution the decision is simple. Both parties=same thing.

Mickey
Sep 6, 2012 - 12:59pm

Obama vs Romney and PM action

if you study the obama and Ryan budgets you will see 10 year projections where the funded debt grows by at least 10 Trillion. Obama's a tad more than Ryans but for practical purposes you can throw a hand towel over the two of them and neither one really cuts spending. Both rely on higher tax revenues from a robust economy that they are going to create. So they say.

We simply are not competitive with the rest of the world. The unions will push use further away. Big business does no tpay income taxes and I am pissed thats not brought up at any convention.

But for our main focus purpose, we can rest assured neither candidate will harm our long term investment theory/strategy (unless they do it by mistake). May get a little bouncy bouncy here and there.

agNau
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:00pm

@punchbowl

I call it leaving the Matrix. It is a major part of the deception. It is imperative for making it through the tough times we face.

Stock_Canines
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:00pm

ADP

Doesn't the huge beat in the ADP numbers make a 80,000 NFP tomorrow very unlikely? I assumed part of the gold and silver sell off this morning was due to the ADP number. I also think a big beat tomorrow will provide the necessary guise for the powers to be to slam the metals. We will see.

Colonel Angus
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:01pm

One of those people in at 26-27 most recently

Thanks, Turd. I was going to be in a little in the 27 range and wait for some 20-22 silver, but you helped me to consider everything and go in a lot deeper. I picked up a couple thousand ounces just a month ago, all kinds of stuff, whatever I could get a deal on...junk silver, dollar coins, ASEs, maples, whatever I could find. My wife got that "oh shit" look again. I asked her, "Did it make sense when I got in a 12 an ounce and got half out at 45?" I bought her some silver jewelry and she was happy again. (Silver has those antibacterial properties that she knows about, so she has given up on gold despite having several white gold earrings and bracelets and a platinum wedding set.)

Turd, you just might be helping some marriages. And remember...most jewelry is made out of PMs, so if you find a deal near the spot price, then be a good husband or be good to yourself if you're a woman. She is/ you are worth it. Now nobody tell my three daughters that they are supposed to like jewelry. It will be our secret.

babaganoush2307
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:08pm

@Swineflogger

HAHA so true, such a joke

Mickey
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:09pm

ADP

has not been all that reliable.

ISM reported today that service jobs increased--the other day MFG jobs decreased. As usual we will have to dig into the report to learn the true meaning. ie more part time jobs, more service jobs (burger flippers?) and then we need to find a way to look at overall quality of jobs added. A guy or gal could have been a supervisor somewhere making 75k, and settles for a job paying 50k, or less. Thats not in the payroll data.

anyway, I like the HUI action today

babaganoush2307
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:14pm

Employment #'s

Don't mean squat, all manipulated like everything else.

reefman
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:17pm

Just released: Atlas Shrugged II - Trailer

Atlas Shrugged Part II Trailer
Dyna mo hum
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:18pm

stingbee

you wrote quote..... President Obama might not be the best leader, but we need to give him some respect and appreciation. He inherited the biggest mess after the Great Depression. Mr. Turd you might not watch, but I will watch it with millions. I still have some faith with our government. Stick to your market commentary, and other informative discussions. Respect is a virtue that must be earned in our world here and don't forget that fact.

ag1969
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:19pm

At a bar ...

At a bar ...

Having already downed a few power drinks, she turns around, faces him, looks him straight in the eye and says:

"Listen here, good looking. I screw anybody, anytime, anywhere, your place, my place, in the car, front door, back door, on the ground, standing up, sitting down, naked or with clothes on; it doesn't matter to me. I just love it!"

Eyes now wide with interest, he responds:

"No kidding, I'm in banking too! Who are you with?"


Sep 6, 2012 - 1:25pm

Great Discussion, Stingbee, et al.

Fantastic discussion. All should know this basic information. Here is a succinct explanation.

Answer: Democracy: Involves the government ruling and making laws for the "greater good" of all people, they may abolish personal rights in doing so. Democracy is government by and for the people. They may or may not be republics--that is, government limited by constitution or charter. The tricky part of "democracy" is defining "the people" and then deciding what counts as "by the people" and what counts as "for the people." In a sense, that could be considered the content of democratic practice. Citizens are expected to participate more actively in a democracy. Republic: Involves the government using and abiding by the constitution heavily. Personal rights are respected and cannot be taken away. This helps to avoid tyranny and mobocracy (the majority makes laws and governs by passion, prejudice, or impulse, without restraint or regard to consequences). Republics are the common and "standard" type of governments found today, not democracies, despite what many people (who may not know the definition of either) think. Just as democracies may or may not be republics, republics may or may not be democracies. The difference between Democracy and Republic: Democracy and Republic are two forms of government which are distinguished by their treatment of the Minority, and the Individual, by the Majority. In a Democracy, the Majority has unlimited power over the Minority. This system of government does not provide a legal safeguard of the rights of the Individual and the Minority. It has been referred to as "Majority over Man". In a Republic, the Majority is Limited and constrained by a written Constitution which protects the rights of the Individual and the Minority. The purpose of a Republic form of government is to control the Majority and to protect the God-given, inalienable rights and liberty of the Individual. The United States of America is founded as a Republic under the Constitution. Read more: https://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_difference_between_a_republic_and_a_democracy#ixzz25i7vmGZc

Know it and be able to discuss it intelligently. It seems obvious, but before long, we will be a democracy, if we are not already with respect to certain issues.

For example, here in the People's Republik of Kalifornia, my vote matters not, as the entire state is captured by special interests and a solid majority of democratic politicians. All decisions are made by democrats, who vote more and more for the masses. The minority, people like me, a limited-government type, have NO voice at all.

For example, what if I want to ride my motorcycle without a helmet? I have no right to do so.

If I have a dispute, I must file a lawsuit. If I try self help, I go to jail. The filing fee for ANY civil lawsuit is $450, plus another $150 if I elect to seek a trial by jury as guaranteed by the 7th Amendment. $600 to file a lawsuit, basically, except for small claims under $7,500.

Most of this money goes to pay the public workers their lavish pensions and health care. I cannot opt out of this system. Thus, where is the limitation of government power? How can elected officials take my money and give it to others without my consent or input? How can elected officials ignore the Constitution and the three separate but equal branches of government? Further, while the legislative and executive budgets have grown large, the judiciary budget has shrunk drastically. How can the legislature defund the judicial branch, leaving the citizens with no realistic judicial recourse in the event of a dispute? This is not a republic by any means. It is more like fascism.

In any event, be sure to understand these terms.

SilverWealth
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:27pm

Ackerman

that's funny about Ackerman. I studied his system and if I was trading futures late at night with tight stop/losses, its a good one. But most here don't do that.

Most here are also not dyed in the wool Zionist defenders of Israel. Rick is a nice guy but the apple does not fall far from the tree and I sense he is a product of his upbringing imo.

Urban Roman
Sep 6, 2012 - 1:32pm

stingbee

It was tempting to pile on with a picture from the choomwagon days, but pointless. Fact is, the President doesn't have that much power. The country is mostly run by this vast bureaucracy that's grown up since WWII.

However, Obama has not done some easy things he could have done. He could still replace Holder, for example. There's time to do that before the election. And if the economy mattered, he could stop supporting the kleptocracy. In theory, he could have done things like close gitmo and stop the domestic military buildup against US citizens. He could appoint judges that would render fair decisions against fraudulent financial institutions. Hell, he could have bailed out homeowners instead of banks.

Instead, he's just cruisin' around like a rockstar on AF1 and passing off an occasional pack of lies as a speech.

And there isn't much in the way of opposition this election. It looks like the Repubs want to lose and leave the crappy economy in Bamster's lap for a while longer. But even if the Repubs win, they aren't going to do anything but make all of the above mentioned problems worse, with an added dose of freakazoid religion.

So there's your political rant.

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS