Monkey Holiday Ends

214
Tue, Sep 4, 2012 - 11:40am

On this first trading day of September, you can sure tell that the monkeys have returned from vacation.

All in all, though, I suppose we should feel pretty good about the action this morning. On cue, at 0600 New York time, the metals were shoved backward. In a matter of minutes, gold dropped $6 and silver fell 30c, just to let everyone know that "vacation" was over. After a rally at the Comex open (an opening rally that seems to happen daily now...a very good sign), the metals were beaten back again, this time for $8 and 25c. If not for this lousy set of headlines ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third-month-contraction-territory-biggest-miss-construction-spending-o), we were likely on our way to a test of 1680 and 31.50 support.

The lousy ISM number caused another spike in price and gold briefly traded above $1700, with the Dec12 reaching $1701.60. Of course, that couldn't be allowed to stand, either, and gold has since been beaten back $8 again to $1693. That'll probably do it for today and I would expect a (somewhat) rangebound trade from here. This is a CoT survey Tuesday so anything can happen, of course, but if today was going to be a "Happy Tuesday", I suspect we would have seen more of an extended rally. Besides, The Gold Cartel has already added so many new shorts in the past two weeks alone, it seems that they could hardly give a damn right now about perception and report-painting. They are simply trying to contain price in the hopes that they'll once again be able to start a cascade into which they'll be able to cover a few shorts.

As always, the question is: Will/Can they start the waterfall? From here, it looks like gold will soon trade with a $17** handle and besting that level should give gold the strength to rally toward 1720. Once above 1720, gold looks to rally toward 1750 and 1800...SO...I think we have to expect a concerted effort to contain price below the 1720 level. Will they succeed in the short term? Maybe. Does it matter in the long term? No.

Silver, too, is digesting its massive Friday gains quite well. With the Comex being closed yesterday, we now have a gap on the chart which will most likely be filled at some point this week. However, if silver does manage to dip down toward 31.50 and below, it would represent a major opportunity to btfd again. The arrogant fools of The Evil Empire apparently have no idea of the shitstorm that is about to rain down upon them. Their days are numbered and, consequently, the days of silver manipulation and price-rigging are numbered, too. If they had any actual brains in their collective heads, they'd have simply considered the macro supply/demand equation and then used this summer's 100-day consolidation period to flatten their positions and exit the silver market for good. Instead, they continue on with business as usual. Halfwit, idiotic, lamebrain, nitwit, numbskull, blockheaded, nincompoop dunces.

Just a word or two regarding crude. Buy. Some.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/israeli-officials-see-gap-with-u-s-widening-over-iran.html & https://www.debka.com/article/22331/If-Israel-attacks-Iran-US-Mid-East-bases-will-pay-dear-–-Nasrallah

And The Pig appears to be at a bit of a crossroads, too. The level around 81 is acting as support but, absent a rally back toward 82, 81 will likely fail and it will fall toward 80.

And the grains are rallying today, too. The November bean is once again making new contract and all-time highs as it threathens $18/bushel. WOW!!! The December corn has yet to follow the beans and I'm not entirely certain why. Perhaps there is still the looming specter of an EPA rescission of the ethanol mandate? Maybe? I speak with Jim Comiskey every other Wednesday over at TTM. Maybe he can shed some light on this tomorrow.

Regardless, the DAG is poised to finally break through $15 and, if it does, the next target looks to be about $16.50. You should be watching this closely.

Here are a couple of interesting articles for you to read:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/fed-moves-toward-open-ended-bond-purchases-to-satisfy-bernanke.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9515510/Technicals-flash-amber-as-ECB-and-Fed-struggle-to-validate-rhetoric.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/food-stamp-use-climbed-to-record-46-7-million-in-june-u-s-says.html

https://www.cnbc.com/id/48889555

And that's all for now. As I close, I see that prices have remained relatively stable while I've been typing. That's always nice. Watch out for a Globex raid, though, as it is Tuesday and you should know by now that post-survey, Tuesday Globex raids are a Cartel specialty.

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  214 Comments

SilverTree
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:42am

Stay sharp today.

My spider sense is tingling today, stay sharp my friends.

Daedalus Mugged
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:42am

Turd, Could you please recap

Turd,

Could you please recap any current predictions (prices, timing, ranges, etc) you have outstanding?

Thank you for all you do,

DM

Louie
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:43am

Thurd!

And here I was waiting in my mother's basement, continually refreshing the page hoping to be first.

Oh well, maybe tomorrow.

Istack
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:46am

My waiting is paying off

For the last 12 years or so I have been carrying an ounce of silver in my front left pocket (either a morgan or a silver eagle). I love to pull it out and remind myself what is truly valuable. It is a great reminder for me. Last week I decided to help myself remember even more so I am upping the ante. I now have a silver eagle in each front pocket. I consider this a more balanced approach

Daedalus Mugged
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:48am

I don't think I have any

Other than expecting prices to surge much, much higher in the days/weeks/months ahead.

thesandbox
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:51am

Bluesman...

come on man you were right there...what happened? ;)

Money By Trading
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:51am

Last night's review of gold

https://wp.me/p2CT0a-4G

My view of the big picture has brightened, but in the short term (the next week or two) weakness is reasonable to expect from a cycles standpoint.

Groaner
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:52am

The cap is in..

as Gandolf would say.. $1700 .. you will not PASS!

¤
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:53am

Pigatha, Bouncing Calvin etc. / Tuesday Afternoon

Tuesday Afternoon-The Moody Blues-(Long Extended Version)
SilverTree
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:53am
Mr. Fix
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:54am

.SECOND!

It has become a daily ritual of mine to check in at TF metals just to see how the world is doing. The information here is astoundingly complete in how it is conveyed amongst us here. Ever since I started watching the gold and silver markets, I quickly became aware that the whole darn global economy is relevant. Turds Site has become my window on the world. Thank you all for being here today. Now, I can go back to lurking in the background ...........

PS.

@

Bluesman...

Mr.Grey
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:55am

Predictions

I thought there was a standing prediction that "no good deed would go unpunished"

Lumpy
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:55am

Maybe they are in no danger of getting hurt.

They may be acting on behalf of the FED using their/our money to control the price of PM's to keep the illusion of a healthy system alive.

If profit isn't a concern, or appearing idiotic, why not just keep up the price suppression for years more with unlimited FED money.

They play by their own rules.

ferretflat
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:57am

I did it.

I cashed out some of my IRA money and bought ASEs, some 90%, circulated silver dollars, and a little gold.

No worries!

Bollocks
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:00pm
balz
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:01pm

Gap

The silver gap is only because the chart does not show yesterday's action.

SIlverbee
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:06pm

Is it not just how gamblers operate

If the losses get to big, up the stake to try to recoup the losses. Think Nick Leeson once you bust big, even bigger ain't gonna make any difference! (EE more shorts)

Just A Regular Guy
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:13pm

Question regarding expanding the money supply

Hi guys/gals,

I had a thought regarding this as I was dozing off the other day. If you expand the money supply we know this is inflationary/monetary debasement. I was wondering, if banks in a country default or say a government defaults on it's loans, does this default therefore contract the money supply? So in THEORY (I'm most defiantly NOT saying this is true in practice) if you blew up fiat/digital fiat via default could you simply counter-balance this with more money printing?????

I know this is a really stupid idea, but i'm not a finance guy or a business guy. I do molecules...... Any insight would be great.

Peace.

Silver Monkey
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:18pm

Turd are you going to sell your Dec $35 Silver calls?

And wait for the waterfall to get back in? Or just ride this puppy out?


Sep 4, 2012 - 12:22pm

ferretflat

Cashout into AG! ... How does it feel?

Even though metals are flat today after the gap up, I love this divergence from the major indices.

S&P down

AG flat -- That's what I am talking about.

ferretflat
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:24pm

Dr.J

Feels good. I will probably liquidate most of my paper investments by the end of the year and leave my IRA dedicated to mining and oil stocks. I will keep on stacking until the end of fiat!

Silver Monkey
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:25pm

Nope

At $35, I currently plan to sell 2X my current Dec $40 and create a spread vs my 35.

I intend to use the proceeds from creating the spread to buy even more, out-of-the money Dec12 and Mar13 calls.

Istack
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:26pm

@pat fam

were you that mountain man?


Sep 4, 2012 - 12:27pm

Sep 4, 2012 - 12:27pm

Groaner re: You shall not pass

The EE may have Gandalf stationed at 32.25, but we have Obiwan Ferguson.

We win.

Patriot Family
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:36pm

Visited LCS During my trip to Seattle...

Had an interview in Seattle. Fantastic company, really good people, fantastic city.

While there I passed by an LCS in Belleview. I pulled over, walked in, and immediately noticed almost everyone in the shop was there to sell silver and gold. Saw a 10 oz sheet of NWT Stagecoach Silver "Get Out Of Dodge" divisible 1 oz bars for sale, got them for about $1.50 over spot. Lots of other silver for sale, mostly Canadian and generic rounds. All for $1.50 over spot. Out of stock on ASEs. Some AGEs for sale at $65 over spot. They had quite a bit of common date 90% silver US coins available and if I get the job and transfer to the NW corner of the country I'll go back in and buy a few rolls.

I had to leave to find an ATM since they didn't take credit or debit cards for bullion purchases. Cash only. Anyway, in the time that I left and came back, more visitors arrived at the shop. Again, almost all were selling. Only one grizzled old mountain man type was buying, and he commented that people should be buying hand over fist if they knew what was coming with the US dollar.

145Bluesman
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:37pm

@ sanbox

Dam ,,,,LOL really,,I really LOL'd

Nature calls and you have to answer.

@Mr Fix. One of these day's I will hit the "First" Lottery.

Do I get a jacket or a secret handshake or something?

xi kai handshake
Bollocks
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:39pm
maravich44 Doctor J
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:45pm
Patriot Family
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:50pm

Croc987 - I don't know if we

Croc987 - I don't know if we are more than a side show in the grand scheme of things. The selling I saw in the LCS on the west coast is the same stuff I'm seeing here in GA in LCS and pawn shops. Lots of selling. It's a shame when you see couples walking in to sell a wedding band or engagement ring, and yet they are driving a really nice car and dressed nicely. Perhaps I am assuming too much when I witness those transactions.

I was reading Aftershock on the 4.5 hour flight there and back, and one older gentleman commented that I should heed the warning about the economic bubbles popping. I asked if he had been buying gold as recommended in the book and he just smiled and changed the subject.

I've been stacking and will continue to stack. With a large family, I don't save cash very well as most of it tends to fly out the window for family expenses. However, my wife and I have found that saving in the form of PMs is very easy. We're now starting to see some profits from our little family business we have on the side, and those will go into PMs on occasion too. We've been using PMs as a savings plan now for 2+ years, and its worked out nicely for us. Except for those darn boating accidents.

Pretty sure we're going to start buying more gold vs. silver but need to wait to see where we land on the job front.

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