Come Tuesday

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

454 Comments

The man who stole a leopard's picture

RE: Stack or IRA

How about both?  You can transfer your Roth or Traditional IRA to a company (like Sterling Trust) that allows you to buy PMs for your IRAs.

I moved my Roth IRA from Vanguard to Sterling Trust this year, process included filling out a transfer application, putting an order at APMEX and having it invoiced and delivered to Sterling.

http://www.sterling-trust.com/plans-and-services/precious-metals.html

murphy's picture

Still

I'm not in agreement but <still> worthwhile

Puck T. Smith's picture

A localized distortion in the spacetime contiuum

Dagney: Not wrong, just early.

cheeky

ivars's picture

Just added 800 oz XAG at

Just added 800 oz XAG at 32,22. Average 30,66. Do not wait for pullbacks, they will be above todays price.

Libero's picture

Santa and DRS

I will ask these questions on this site because I know it is full of knowledgeable users.  Santa Sinclair has advocated using DRS so that your stock certificates are registered in your name and not in street name.  The procedure doesn't seem so easy as the subject keeps popping up.  Here is my first question. 

As an individual stock holder, yes you are exposed to some evil if the SHTF, bankruptcies etc., but... wouldn't/shouldn't the managers of mutual funds easily and as a matter of course register the shares of the holdings in the mutual fund into an entity that would be sheltered from the collapse of a street name?  Wouldn't this effort on behalf of the mutual fund, be a selling point of the mutual fund?  Wouldn't it be better then, to invest in mutual funds where the manager is doing all this than an individual stock holder who may have to do this dozens of times?

Are shares of a money market mutual fund able to enter the DRS?

Once stocks certificates are registered in DRS, how quickly can you sell the stock? 

Any enlightenment would be appreciated.  Thank you!

BagOfGold's picture

Katie Rose...

Congratulations on the alfalfa...that will keep "the little guys" happy!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Turd Ferguson's picture

Euro headlines

MODERATOR

Give euro strength. Hits POSX. UP go the metals.

ECB's Coeure says Euro is the guarantee of European's presence among the great global markets

Says: 
- Need to move towards something resembling budgetary union. 
- Joint budgetary control is a necessary step towards Eurobonds. 
- Eurozone banks must continue to lend beyond their national boarders. 
- The integrity of the Euro is under threat. 
- The ECB will do everything in its mandate to preserve the integrity of the Euro.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And the metals REALLY like this one

MODERATOR

News Headline Summary

ECB's Coeure says the ECB is working on a bond buying program

Says: 
- ECB is studying ways of intervening in the short-term bond market based on strict conditionally and EFSF/ESM programme.

Silver Passion's picture

@ Ivars, I like your charts, you're a smart man...but

I'm not so sure about reelection of Obama.   QE, sure.   Not much difference between Romney and Obama, as we all know.  But Obama has lost a lot of popularity this time around.   We'll see.

¤'s picture

Merkel: In fear of the financial market reaction/ Loves Beer!

Merkel Says Bailouts Here to Stay as Schaeuble Warns on ECB

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her domestic critics that bailouts are here to stay, even as her finance minister warned against placing too much faith in theEuropean Central Bank’s ability to stop the crisis.

Merkel made a foray away from crisis fighting today as she traveled to a traditional political gathering in a packed beer tent  in southern Germany to confront anti-bailout critics in her government coalition. Countries such as Greece “deserve our solidarity” as long as they meet commitments for overhauling their economies, she said

“We need Europe, but we need a strong Europe,” Merkel told members of her Bavarian Christian Social Union sister party in the town of Abensberg, northeast of Munich. “We can’t take up so much debt that tomorrow we won’t have anything left and we’ll be at the mercy of the financial markets.”...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/merkel-says-bailouts-here-to-stay-as-schaeuble-warns-on-ecb.html

Oktober-fest-beerfestival.jpg

Xty's picture

possible explanation for what just happened to EUR/USD

buried at the bottom of this article:

Sept. 3, 2012, 9:55 a.m. EDT

ECB bond-buying program dormant for 25th week

...

The ECB also announced Monday that it intends to drain EUR209 billion, an amount equaling the ECB's total outstanding bond purchases, in a one-week deposit auction Tuesday with a maximum bid rate of 0.75%. The amount is the same as last week. The exercise is designed to offset the inflationary effects of the central bank's bond purchases.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-bond-buying-program-dormant-for-25th-week-2012-09-03

redwood's picture

An Obama reelection is almost

An Obama reelection is almost a certainty as he is more pathological than Romney and therefore more willing to follow the orders from above.  Romney for eg. is not inclined to initiate ME war among other things.  Please remember O was groomed for this position since his Occidental University years when he was only a mediocre student in the late 70's.  There's a lot of investment in this man and he has enough skeletons in his closet to fill an ocean.  You can be sure he'll do what they want.

Urban Roman's picture

Still worthwhile

Still nice to watch Still.

He makes some good points. If the Fed issues "gold-backed currency" it will simply be paper currency, more of the same. On the other hand, if everyone carries gold coins in their pockets it tends to wear away and disappear ... maybe plastic-encased gold coins? Ha.

What we really need is re-localization, and now. Your local county needs to have an independent bank!

... I wonder what Bill Still thinks of Bitcoin?

Response to: Still

The Green Manalishi's picture

Interesting article

Maybe SRSRocco can take a look at this and comment:

EXCLUSIVE: How the super-rich scramble for 5-star property, and siphon off the gold output

Safe houses and raw gold are being snaffled up by the 3%

I read this kind of analysis four or five times already today:

‘…gold will head towards $1,700 an ounce or higher as central bank moves into purchase and production problems increase the demand for gold, analysts said…’

As we’ll see, those ‘production problems’ are not all they seem.

"Now I’m being told that the mining ‘production problems’ are not all they seem: that unrecorded output is being syphoned off direct to those off-the-record purchasers. Thus does yet another investment move I made (buying mining shares) fall victim to The Big Fix put in by The Big Money."

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/exclusive-how-the-super-rich-scramble-for-5-star-property-and-siphon-off-the-gold-output/

flaunt's picture

Romney is a Republican.

Romney is a Republican.  Republicans by definition must unequivocally, and with reckless abandon support "our greatest ally Israel."  It's practically part of the party platform.  Romney will be FAR more likely to attack Iran.  However, Obama will probably do it too, because the AIPAC is extremely powerful and combined with the influence of the military-industrial complex it's pretty much a foregone conclusion.

I watched this documentary showing Obama's life as President, and it was pretty enlightening.  A lot of the time we wonder what is going on up there but this shows they're human just like the rest of us (thus extremely fallible).  One thing Obama said in response to a question about whether it bothered him when he saw something on tv that was critical of him, he said something like, "No, I understand that everybody has their part to play."  As though it's all just a farce and none of it really means anything.  A brief moment of unintentional honesty from one of the insiders of insiders.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31050780/ns/politics-white_house/t/day-life-obamas-white-house/#.UETTiI2PUz4

thesandbox's picture

CNBS hidden messages....

I know it has been talked about before how sometimes the MSM will send out signals.....could this be one? The article doesn't have much to do with the title yet it is at the top right now and quite interesting.

www.cnbc.com
"Is the ‘Silver Dollar Economy’ Squeezing Out the Young?"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48884817

but then when you open the link the article is titled the silver-collar economy????

ivars's picture

@Silver passion- Obama reelection QE

I'm not so sure about reelection of Obama.   QE, sure.   Not much difference between Romney and Obama, as we all know.  But Obama has lost a lot of popularity this time around.   We'll see.

Then I think he (Obama) has to try even harder. What else could he do? Would war before elections help Obama or not? Is he not of the type (well, they all might be) that could use even more short term activity?

His Meyers Briggs type is ENTP, at least in Wikipedia. the P means he is not sure what to do, and given his intuitive nature (N) , he might impulsively jump to irrational ideas he believes in against the reality ( to get elected) . Sometimes it may work, but the idea can be anything. Of course, he is just a face of a machine, but.  When under stress, he tends to become dominating more and more.

But is he really ENTP...?

Bollocks's picture

Obama and AIPAC

Skip to 30 secs and listen to what he says...

Short Stack's picture

TO: Adm. AgBar, Zoltan, Hellfish and anyone else....

who corrected me,  ok, ok,  You were right, I was wrong.  I apologize.  (gee, where have I heard that before)

That's one of the things I hate about getting old.   Times change, definitions of words change, people change, opinions change and I still remain the same.  (well, I think I have)

All I know is when I was growing up they used to call them clips if you can remove them from the firearm or carry them around fully loaded.  Shotguns had magazines, semi-autos had clips, revolvers had cylinders.

After reading you guys' posts I decided to check some websites that sell same and since they also call them magazines, I will defer.

Xty's picture

Just in time for Thanksgiving:

Turkey Yields Climb as Inflation Misses Estimate

By Selcuk Gokoluk on September 03, 2012

Turkey’s bond yields rose the most in almost a month after inflation slowed less than economists expected last month, threatening the central bank’s forecast for the end of this year. Yields on two-year benchmark bonds climbed 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 7.75 percent at the close in Istanbul, the biggest increase since Aug. 7. The lira weakened 0.2 percent to 1.8208 per dollar, retreating for the seventh time in eight days. The inflation rate declined to 8.9 percent in August from 9.1 percent in July as food and transport prices rose, the statistics agency in Ankara said on its website today....

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-03/turkey-yields-climb-as-inflation-misses-estimate-lira-weakens

Larry's picture

ag1969... quite a transition

Your post was inspiring. Truth well told. Thank you for sharing that. You have a great attitude.

It is frustrating, humbling and downright awful what this economy has come to. Like you, I was busy piling up fiat, buying real estate and growing a company. The first bubble that popped as far as I was concerned was the dotcom. Like many, I was an investing genius in the mid to late 90's... and an idiot when it all crashed. That took a sizeable chunk from me personally but fortunately not more than I could handle without it hurting too bad. The business was still very good and fiat was rolling in.

Then 9/11. That hurt emotionally but not the business. Then the real estate crash. Since I'd sold all but one other rental property in 2006-7, that bubble didn't really hurt me either, in terms of personal investments. But many of my clients were in sectors related or effected by that, it pretty much knocked my business down by half. Then I went through the painful process of reorg/layoffs etc. The business never really recovered but still had some high quality clients that were and are recession resistant.

Then, in 2007 I took the red pill, so to speak and invested in real money (and their respective shares). After seeing what was occurring in the world (including my world), the markets, fiat, governments, Central Planners etcetera, I decided to sell and get out of the business. That was going on 3-years ago. Never looked back. No regrets, even though I know for a fact that I would have made three times what I sold for just a few years earlier. Had I held on, there's no telling what my business would be today.

Based on what's happened since then I'd probably have worked my butt off, stayed stressed out and, if I didn't have to close the doors and take a huge loss I would have, at best, scratched and clawed just to stay even. Thirty years of owning a company with as many as 75 employees was enough and I'm thankful for what I was able to do and save. So many that I know that didn't see the economic hellbound train coming are now living a totally different life now. From mansions to small, rented apartments. Some had made many millions and they went bankrupt. Now they are trying to discover within themselves how they could have been so blind to the jacked-up bubbles that we were all taking for granted... until they popped.

Transitioning to a more modest lifestyle has not been an issue here. Blessed to still live in my little corner of paradise where I've lived for the last twenty years. Looks as though I'll be able to keep it, but then, we never know, do we? All the more reason to appreciate what we have and not pine over what we had, or should've or could've or had in terms of wealth. Family, friends and good health mean so much more than any gold or silver. It's a blessing if we have some of the latter too.

Didn't mean to go off on a 'dear diary' thing here, but because of our politicians, crony capitalists, banking Cartel and other supportive players in collusion of creating massive debt bubbles at the expense of the taxpaying producers and the free enterprise system itself , we are not alone. Almost everyone I know is living a different life now than they were 5-years ago. And as I'm sure you agree, we each share our part of the blame for allowing ourselves to get caught up in real estate or fiat-piling or any other bubble asset that, busy and unaware, we thought would go up forever (along with our business revenues) without stopping to consider the bigger picture.

Thank God we know what we know and have made the necessary corrections in our lives and our investments. Many still don't, and won't until their transition is going to be sad and brutal. 

stingbee30's picture

Re: The Vulture Capitalist wants to become the President...

The Private Equity Firm farce who wants to become the President...

Since the Political rants are not stopping on this forum, then here is my 2 cents again.

The fact that Romney is still trailing the President after the RNC shows the real problem.  During any other Presidential race, the incumbent would be trailing the challenger with a high unemployment rate and an economy hardly recovering.  But, we are going to have a precedent in this year's election-the incumbent wins the election with high unemployment rate.  We all know that the Real Unemployment is much higher.  We know the job market is full of temporary employment and lower wages.  We know we have millions working part-time without any luck for full-time job. Benefits have been reduced and health care premiums on the rise.  Regardless these head-winds, the Incumbent will win the upcoming election.  Romney and his troll VP are candidates with a regionalized appeal and catering to the base.  The broad appeal doesn't exist, and many find it hard to trust a man who was running a private equity firm-a private equity firm is a vulture firm working for profit and taking advantage of companies who are in dire need. 

The following article is a good read for those who understand how a private equity firm operates, and the man behind it.  As I said, the Republican party is a dysfunctional party with limited appeal and without any merit to challenge the Democratic party-in a perfect world, we would have had two parties working together.  The Republican party priority number one was to stall anything pushed by the President.  How can you have a legitimate Democracy when one party is not working on all cyclinders.  It doesn't mean the Democratic party is perfect or without issues.  But, at this time, the Republican party appeal factor is trending lower, and it will continue so unless it changes.  If i was an investor, I will shy away from this investment with weak fundamentals and technicals.

Romney's foreign policy reminds us of the biggest Jack Ass-The Bush and the NewCons.  If Romney get's elected, then we will be bracing for worst economic outcome-increase defense spending and war-mongering policies.  As I said before, it is too sad we cannot elect men like Mr. Ron Paul who are revolutionary and really want to bring a change.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-20120829

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

No worries ShortStack

Either way it doesn't much matter.  It all goes bang. 

Stack what you can, while you still can.  yes

Harald's picture

Clips? Magazines?

You're both right.  As the former Marine who built my AR showed me, the military now uses preloaded clips to auto load the magazines.  There is an attachment to the top of the magazine which allows them to load the whole clip into the magazine in one motion.  Makes sense, takes a while to load a 30 round mag one bullet at a time.  Was news to me but then my military career ended forty five years ago.  The M1 and sixties vintage M16 rifles did use clips.  Maybe someone who has been "in" recently would have more insight into the matter.  

Xty's picture

The silver chart is really looking good!

Sorry, just had to say - this is fun for the first time in ages.  Hi ho.

edit: or should I say - HEH!?!

Horst's picture

Okay, if I don't get fucked

Okay, if I don't get fucked until NY market open time tomorrow, I am selling part of my AGQ and wait to buy back lower. 5$ up without correction.. that's not going to last. COT data confirms that.

Well, it might just as well, so I'm only selling part, don't wanna miss some short covering spike.

paperempire's picture

Bill Still

Bill Still is a good example of cognitive dissonance. Counterfeiting is the problem! Counterfeiting is the solution!

ivars's picture

GOLD prediction reality comparison chart and extension to Sep1

This is the last comparison chart for time May 5th 2011- September 1 2012. Does not look too bad , at least at the endpoints.

right click, view image to see prices/dates.

Now i am still not sure how to continue the predictions after September 1st. The silver chart and GSR charts say - stretch the period between May and September (i.e. 4 months) also in prediction charts, and move on with the same shape. The gold does not say anything- well it was predicted to be stable for a longer term, so it can not really.

So in essence: few weeks more of silver movement needed to decide.

I will also publish silver comparison chart next, there the question will become obvious, as silver chart also drives GSR chart.

Zoltan's picture

Short Stack: No apology necessary

Sorry if some of the Turdites were a little harsh with you.  As i said people often refer to magazines as clips (even if technically incorrect).

And while we are at it calling a rifle a gun would get your ass chewed out in the Artillery.  A gun is a field artillery piece. 

Let's check with R Lee Ermey on that debate:

Z

balz's picture

Waiting for smackdown

Something is wrong with this rally.

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