Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:38pm

Hillsie

"Love the newbies that don't get the first second thing....it's beautiful."

Thanks for that nugget. That's a much better way to put it and one I should've kept in mind.

Anyone who likes classic horror films might check The SpeakEasy in a bit. I would never post it out here because quite frankly it's brutal and wayyy off topic.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/571615#comment-571615

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SpeakEasy,NewsTicker,iCandy-Vids https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

treefrog
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:40pm
SIlverbee
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:46pm

Gold will go nuts in August

I guess you will be familiar with this quote but has it?

Aug 1 was 1599 according to Kitco. We closed Aug 31 1691. So up $92. That's up 5.75% is that really going nuts?

Silver was $27.87 and now 31.74 that's 13.9%.

If gold had achieved 13.9% I'd be willing to concede and element of goingi nuts.

Still pleased but left feeling expected more. Is this just what would have happened anyway given global economics of the moment and seasonal buying or does it reflect the spirit of Bill Murphy's insiders information?

TomMack
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:48pm

refreshing all day is refreshing

it keeps me from getting the blues, been running around and around all day

https://www.youtube.com/embed/9lYwHu5SQIE?feature=player_detailpage

Short StackSIlverbee
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:52pm

@Silverbee

The point here is "going nuts" is a subjective statement. As such it is not meant to meet your expectations nor mine. Just the person who said it.

Sep 2, 2012 - 3:56pm

According to Jimmy Buffett Tuesday is a bust, but Friday ...

For the gang at the Fish House
Tuesday on the island
Not much goin' on
The parties are all over
They ended just past dawn

The jungle drums are beating
With the tales from late last night
'Cause stories bear repeating
For everyone's delight

...

It's hump day on the island

The lines have all gone dead
All the juicy news is history
I guess everything's been said

But when the eagle flies on Friday
And the boys break out the rum
And the joint begins to jumpin'
And you'll hear those hot lines hum

https://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Coconut-Telegraph-lyrics-Jimmy-B...

Colonel Angus
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:56pm

Timing....and buying now

I'm down to my last couple of thousand FRNs, so I've been looking for some PMs this weekend. I went even more way in when silver hit $27 an ounce and below, but I had some money come in. Really, I can't find anything with a decent price this weekend. So I'm waiting. If need be I'll miss out and buy some puts on MS. (I'm still looking to find out how to buy myself a hundred contracts for the credit even binary option on those guys, but no luck for me...anyone???) I'll stack a few more tins of canned ham or get some of that Hormel bacon in the bag that is so tasty. But I would not recommend chasing the prices if you already have a decent sized stack. And, no, I'm not trying the "mine is bigger than yours" thing. I'm just thinking most of us have probably embellished our stacks since the price of silver had three digits in it and the price of gold had three before the decimal point...

GDP
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:57pm

the gold standard...

I wonder why the "MSM" seems to present the gold standard as a binary decision? I thought RP was more interested in a "competing" currency type setup...A pure gold and silver standard seem ridiculous to me...the more "elements" the better right? Sovereigns, old money, etc have enough "fire power" to over take a few "elements" no?...Another thing I keep thinking of...If gold and silver, especially gold (maybe plat, not sure) really moon shotted (this a word?) , is it possible to filter ocean water and remove heavy metals via nano type filter technologies? A pure gold and silver system seems too easy to control...

Short StackGeorge Clooney
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:57pm

@XTY

What's this about Jimmy Buffett's bust, er, I mean Tuesday and Friday ?

I know Friday the Unemployment numbers come out but Tuesday looks good to me so far.

SIlverbeeShort Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 4:00pm

absolutely short stack

Its a metaphor. We can choose a multitude to express big change, etc but by choosing this one implies a certain magnitude that the sender wishes to convey and they feel it will be interpreted such by the receiver. I would not have used this metaphor to express 5.75% change; would you?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Solsson, 9 hours 2 min ago
by Pete, 12 hours 54 min ago
by SteveW, 13 hours 37 min ago
by Phoenix79, Oct 17, 2019 - 6:28pm
randomness