Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments

cheekco
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:53pm

DRS and Mr Sinclair

HI All

I was thinking a good topic to discuss is what you all think of DRS.

I have been trying to follow Santa;s advise on all the miners I own with no luck.

I also find it very confusing. I;m starting to think the people at my clearing house

think I;m nuts.

Thanks Turd and all you posters . I love this site

foscotanner
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:03pm

@ turd

Turd, When you mention the new gold shorts, am I correct in assuming these were added up to tues? So a lot could have been closed during the take downs on thurs / Fri? Something caused a lot of upside volume on Friday?

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:04pm

DRS / SEC

Holding Your Securities— Get the Facts

As an individual investor, you have up to three choices when it comes to holding your securities:

Physical Certificate — The security is registered in your name on the issuer's books, and you receive an actual, hard copy stock or bond certificate representing your ownership of the security.
"Street Name" Registration — The security is registered in the name of your brokerage firm on the issuer's books, and your brokerage firm holds the security for you in "book-entry" form. "Book-entry" simply means that you do not receive a certificate. Instead, your broker keeps a record in its books that you own that particular security.
"Direct" Registration — The security is registered in your name on the issuer's books, and either the company or its transfer agent holds the security for you in book-entry form. The "Direct Registration System" (also known as "DRS") allows investors to transfer securities held this way. For more information about DRS, please see our Frequently Asked Questions below.

This publication explains these choices in greater detail, by laying out the advantages and disadvantages of each and by answering frequently asked questions. Depending on the type of security and where you purchase it, you may or may not have all these choices about how your securities are held. For example, not all companies offer direct registration, and some no longer issue physical certificates. You should ask your broker or the company what options you have.

Physical Certificate

When you buy a security, whether through your broker or from the company itself, you can ask to have the actual stock or bond certificates sent to you. You may have to pay a nominal fee for the added expense of issuing a paper certificate. It's important that you safeguard your certificates until you sell or transfer your securities. It can be difficult to prove that you once owned a certificate that has been lost, stolen, or destroyed. Your broker — or the company or its transfer agent — will generally charge a fee to replace a lost or stolen stock certificate. For more information on safeguarding your securities, please read our "Fast Answer" on Lost or Stolen Stock Certificates.

The advantages of holding a physical certificate include:

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  • You may find it easier to pledge your securities as collateral for a loan if you hold the certificates yourself in physical certificate form.

The disadvantages include:

  • When you want to sell your stock, you will have to...

https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/holdsec.htm

Hillsie
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:05pm

First, second....whatever....

Love the newbies that don't get the first second thing....it's beautiful.

Bought in on the algo dip on Friday and doubled down on my December 50 calls, looking for a big buy from the physical traders on the comex closed day to push this baby up to the place where it belongs.

Got a feeling this week is gonna be a doozie....ECB bank license..... Fed easing...........jpm silver exposé.........allocated gold libor scandal......

The future is ours!

Sep 2, 2012 - 3:13pm
Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:14pm

Urban Roman

If you have a lot of cash to deploy.... don't chase prices higher. Buy a little now and wait.

BTW... I hoped you learned an important lesson in retrospect. You should have been buying with both hands a few months back when everyone said silver was going to negative 12, or something. I did!

I am getting better at timing purchases. As much as I love and respect everyone here, use this forum and others to gage sentiment. Then do the opposite. I bought silver on Thursday at 30.44 when everyone was calling for a FOMC J-Hole FUTF. We got the quick and pathetic FUTF and then an epic FUBM that I thoroughly enjoyed all the way up.

Long story short. Don't chase prices up. Buy a little now to scratch your itch. Wait for sentiment to turn south and buy aggressively. However, I hope you get your fill before the HEH explosion commences. Even if it does, buy gold instead of silver if the ratio become more favorable...

Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:19pm

Doubling down on my advice...

Always be buying! Its crazy cheap right now!

(warning strong language for sensitive little ears, but well worth it!)

The Art of selling by Alec Baldwin

Are you interested? I know you are...

Dagney Taggart
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:28pm

@Admiral

What is HEH? I haven't been around much.

Heh was the god of infinity. Is that the joke?

Mr. FixDagney Taggart
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:29pm

This will ultimately be survival of the fittest.

@ Dagney,

yes, if people who were going to buy metals "when the time was right",

haven't bought them yet, then the simple answer is,

they loose.

After all, it's not like they haven't had enough warning,

and for some very genuine economic reasons, it's becoming very uncomfortable to wait much longer.

About four years ago, I became dreadfully aware of the fact that our entire economy, and monetary system was headed towards an implosion.

I cleaned out my bank account, and spent it all on gold and silver.

I have no regrets about that,

however,

my main purpose in doing so was that I intended to hedge against an environment where it would become nearly impossible to earn a living.

These days have been creeping up on all of us,

as it is widely reported, even in the mainstream press,

it is getting increasingly difficult to earn a living.

I was in fact hoping that if it became virtually impossible to earn a living,

the circumstances causing this would cause gold and silver to explode in value.

I feel that we are at that edge right now.

I am personally witnessing an economic disaster here in upstate New York,

where foreclosures and unemployment have become an epidemic.

It's a getting rough to earn a living in this economy.

If the gold and silver do not go up in value soon,

then it will not have been much of an advantage for me to have bought in the first place.

You see, unless I start getting some good paying jobs soon,

I will have to start cashing in my precious metals for no other reason than to pay for my health care insurance, and my taxes.

The local town board would not hesitate for 1 min. to sell my house for its taxes.

The bottom line is,

I genuinely cannot wait much longer.

Admiral Ag Bar
Sep 2, 2012 - 3:33pm

Dag

HEH is Turd's call for a Hot Explosive and Historic move.

I'm on board and all buckled-in for the launch. I know you are as well.

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