Come Tuesday

Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:20pm

@Bluesman re: I vow to now...

I vow to now constantly refresh the page so as to be one of the elete turdistans who proclaim to hold the coveted FIRST.

Hey, knock yourself out. But I wouldn't recommend it.

Urban Roman
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:21pm


So, I'm thinking of burning the dry powder in my checking account on Tuesday, since I have obviously missed the bottom a while back there...

Will there be a little dip some time this week?

Or is this the long-anticipated rocket ride to the moon?

And, what to get? ASEs, generic rounds (I like the ones with the Liberty bell), Libtards, Philharmonics? Browse the ebay lists? Or maybe a 100-Oz doorstop?

Dagney Taggart
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:27pm


I think (hope) we get two weeks of consolidation to let the summer crowd in. Then onward. Too high too fast always has consequences.

Urban Roman
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:35pm


@Xty, wow, this Bruce Beach?

And I was feeling envious of BoG's prep activities in the last thread! This guy's got us all beat by 30 years!

[edit] haha, he looks like Santa Claus!

The Green Manalishi
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:38pm

El Niño is on the way

Weather holds the key to the world's food price volatility

The World Bank's Food Price Index soared by 10pc in July, but global grain stocks are currently high enough to prevent a repeat of 2008's food riots, according to the World Bank. Things could rapidly change though.

The price of maize and wheat rose by a quarter and soybean prices jumped 17pc over the month, with increases prompted by the worst drought in 50 years in the US Midwest.

The index, which weighs the US dollar price of internationally traded food commodities, shows that sharp price increases were felt across the board in July. Rice, which fell 4pc, was the only major exception.

The price of maize and wheat rose by a quarter and soybean prices jumped 17pc over the month, with increases prompted by the worst drought in 50 years in the US Midwest. Poor weather in Russia has also added to supply-side fears.

Maize and soybean prices in July exceeded those observed during the June 2008 and February 2011 peaks. In 2008 food riots were seen in parts of Africa, South America and the Middle East.

The World Bank was reassured by the decline in rice prices. "Large supplies of rice from bumper crops and increasing competition for Thailand (the world's largest exporter) have led to a recent rice price decline," it said. "Weak demand from the eurozone and a slight growth slowdown in China and the developing world in general all favour price moderation."

However, it warned that "the jury was still out", citing potential threats such as major producers pursuing "panic policies" such as restricting exports and weather developments in the near future "especially related to el Niño".

Sep 2, 2012 - 2:40pm

September: Europe going forward

(Sorry...Repost from last thread. Seems more topical here going forward)

Sorry for any disharmony up above. I'm not angry despite how it read. No offense taken by you, just crabby today for some

@Blue...Does your moniker imply you like the Blue's? Throw me a few names maybe and I'll try to make it right.


I have no idea how any of this plays out but my sense of it is that we've turned the corner in late August/early Sept. again just like previous years and the PM's/miners are going higher but not in a nutso/parabolic way (hopefully). The slower and steadier the better imho.

I'm guessing that Monday ushers in some renewed and continued EU teeth gnashing and market volatility right out of the gate possibly tonight or early this week and the business at hand over there is about to get tackled and dealt with in some form with all the usual hand wringing and dis-information to keep everyone off balance.

I think the EU bond buying this time around is the key driver of any market movements that are coming and it will be bullish just like all the other large/steady influxes of new liquidity. The hot money from any infusion of EU stimulus that they dole out will find it's way over here in the US markets in a big way and D.C. and the markets will enjoy the benefits of that hot money. The Fed doesn't need to do anything stimulative right now because all they have to do is change the tone of their message (which they've been doing the last couple times publicly) and wait for the EU stimulus to trickle or flood the US markets and bump up all the major indexes.

The other factor is that they simply can not continue to keep gold at bay because they intend to use it as a Tier 1 capital asset. They need it to be as valuable as possible if they intend to use it because of Basel III. They merely need to keep letting he rise in price steady and not let it get away from them and cause the up/down price volatility we've been witnessing. I think we are at the beginning of TPTB/BIS letting the price start to rise because they need to for their own purposes going forward, never ours.

If they are going to use gold in some manner in a larger way going forward they need for it's appearance to be more stable and more valuable and not as risky or temperamental in behavior as it has appeared to the general public. Gold is about to enter the mainstream consciousness and it needs to appear valuable and not risky. Basel III eventually will guarantee that is exactly what happens.

I'm looking for lots of uncertainty and volatility to break loose in the EU starting this week early on as a fear driven means for them to act fairly boldly. Imho, the EU bond buying mechanism they choose to implement (and they will do so) is the key and despite what ZH or other MSM article's say about the idea of a fixed/floating hard cap is what I think they'll do even if they deny it the whole time. It makes sense in this environment because if the big money starts to hesitate or stops buying bonds due to trust issue's they're (world govt's) screwed royally.

In essence, what they'll do is what the Fed/Treasury has been doing here selectively and on the relative hush-hush. They'll selectively and consistently purchase assets/bonds when they see a price or borrowing level they're not comfortable with they'll intervene just like the US does now. (Complete MOPE in the global bond markets)

This could be a September to remember and they always seem to zig-zag around late August and September anyway. Get ready for a EU dog and pony show that ends up with some sort of asset and bond purchase program (even if the scope of it is fuzzy) because if they do nothing they'll end up with the uncontrollable market/gold reaction that they don't want and haven't allowed the whole time, for the most part.

Sep 2, 2012 - 2:42pm

re Doomsday Preppers

My hubby worked for Bruce Beach - the builder of Ark II in Ontario. Sometimes crazy people actually are crazy.

Sep 2, 2012 - 2:45pm

Unplugged: Eric Clapton/ Full Concert HD

Eric Clapton - MTV Unplugged FULL concert - HQ
Dagney Taggart
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:45pm

@Fix & SS

On second though, f 'em. They should have been paying attention.

Sep 2, 2012 - 2:49pm

Yup, that Bruce Beach

I had a search on the web, but they have pretty much buried (ha ha) this story, about Ark I. Mr Beach bought an old wreck from Chile and enticed youth there. The boat was renamed (always bad luck), Canada's Tomorrow. I remember a headline from the Globe and Mail, I think, that read something like:

Canada's Tomorrow, a Rusting Hulk Today.

I found a link to a web archive of one article that mentions some of the students. Hubby quit working for him before and because of this incident.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Recent Comments

by Blackwatersailor, 3 min 17 sec ago
by SteveW, 2 hours 50 min ago
by Alex777, 3 hours 21 min ago
by allenb, 3 hours 27 min ago
by Montross515, Oct 21, 2019 - 9:37pm

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 5 hours 6 sec ago
by Trail Trekker, Oct 21, 2019 - 10:38pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 21, 2019 - 8:49pm
by admin, Oct 21, 2019 - 6:49pm