Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments

ReachWest
Sep 2, 2012 - 1:59pm

@ 145Bluesman

Proclaiming 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc is like a long honored (albeit silly and meaningless) tradition in Turdville. [Think of it like a secret handshake amongst Turdites.]

Gotta smile, at something - there sure ain't much in the ponzi economy or markets to grin at.

Edit to Add: And no - I don't sit around refreshing any pages in hopes of getting one of the top positions - just lucky enough to happen upon an open spot every once in a while.

¤
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:00pm

Fix / Blue

@ Fix...thanx, humbling stuff. @Blue..disingenuous stuff. Have a nice day.

foggyroad
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:02pm

Trust

Gallup reported last month,(edit (April 2012)..) that – for the second year in a row – Americans said that gold is the safest long-term investment. This shows that Americans don’t trust the government. Specifically, as Time Magazine points out:

Traditionally, gold has been a store of value when citizens do not trust their government politically or economically.

read more.. https://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/05/trust.html
RaRaRasputin
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:12pm

What inflation?

sarc on < Seems that the G20 can't ignore the deflation that abounds?! > sarc off

Price of essentials rises by 10 per cent

The G20 is under growing pressure to call an emergency food summit after the price of essentials jumped by ten per cent on average in July.

The World Bank report also warned that prices could continue to rise this year. "Negative factors – such as exporters pursuing panic policies, a severe El Nino, disappointing Southern hemisphere crops or strong rises in energy prices – could cause significant further grain price hikes," the report said.

The G20 said this week that it would check the US Department of Agriculture's updated crop forecast – due on 12 September – before deciding whether to call an emergency meeting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/price-of-essent...

RaRaRasputin
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:13pm

Coincidence??

Hmm - rising food inflation article today and then this article from yesterday .......

Barclays makes £500m betting on food crisis

Barclays has made as much as half a billion pounds in two years from speculating on food staples such as wheat and soya, prompting allegations that banks are profiting handsomely from the global food crisis.

Barclays is the UK bank with the greatest involvement in food commodity trading and is one of the three biggest global players, along with the US banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, research from the World Development Movement points out.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/barclays-makes-500m-bet...

145Bluesman
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:14pm

@DPH

@Blue..disingenuous stuff. Have a nice day."

Dude I just asked a question, and you attack me twice. I have heard the same question posed here many times since day one.

Put me on ignore if you can't handle it. But I will continue to read your stuff with interest.

Short Stack
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:15pm

Someone post earlier about Doomsday Preppers/Nat Geo ch.

Some duffus on the Preppers said he wouldn't give you a can of beans for an ounce of gold.

That he wouldn't know the difference between 24k. and 14k. Whether it was solid gold or gold plated.

Amazing to me that some people are interested in learning how to farm, raise animals, etc. Yet only show interest in how to economically barter a chicken for a bag of spuds.

In the prepper game, it's not what you know, but what you should know but don't bother to learn that's going to be your undoing.

145Bluesman
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:19pm

I vow to now constantly

I vow to now constantly refresh the page so as to be one of the elete turdistans who proclaim to hold the coveted FIRST.

It's like a bar i once visited in Mexico. I asked the question "why do the guy's, one at a time, take turns going into the back room with the fat ugly lady with a big cold sore on her lip".

The little Mexican dude grinned and through his three rotten teeth and proclaimed. "Its tradition gringo"

refresh

Dagney Taggart
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:20pm

OK

Bluesman has been told the same thing by 5 (oops 4) different people. It's time to move on.

Edit: Why does this pack phenomena happen? What's the saying? Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one. It you aren't saying something new, please don't say it.

Dyna mo hum
Sep 2, 2012 - 2:20pm

Bluesman

You can also be last when you feel that position appropriate.

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