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Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments

flycozy · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:02pm

 It looks like things are heating up even more with the Israel/ Iran conflict! This is some scary stuff. Good read:

https://www.debka.com/article/22327/US-CIA-chief-Petraeus-arrives-Monday...

Short Stack · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:03pm

Well, you know what they say about Hope. It's bound to Change

Don't believe me ? Just go ask Obummer.

SIlverbee · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:07pm

Does anyone have a link to the information about how many silver contracts are standing for delivery for Aug 12.

Short Stack · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:10pm

Well again, it's all subjective. I mean consider that just prior to the American Revolution how everyone was up in arms over, I think it was, a lousy 2% Stamp Tax.

But hey, I make it a rule not to argue with bees. Even silver ones.wink

ReachWest · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:10pm

@flycozy:

Thanks for that story regarding Petraeus heading to Israel for an unscheduled meeting on Monday. I wonder if the Petraeus visit is partially a consequence of this story regarding Israel PM lashing out at the US Ambassador earlier in the week? Seems like tensions are running high. Is the MENA area about to erupt?

NETANYAHU GOES NUCLEAR ON OBAMA

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly shouted "Time has run out!" at U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro, as the two met in Israel earlier this week and discussed the Obama administration's position on Iran.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Shapiro was in Israel for meetings with Netanyahu, and at some point the PM couldn't hold his frustration with President Obama in any longer: "Instead of pressuring Iran in an effective way, Obama and his people are pressuring us not to attack the nuclear facilities." Those present say Netanyahu then said assertively: "Time has run out!"

FULL Story linked here.

The Green Manalishi · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:11pm
CIF collapse: this is going to be a bank-run, not a fun-run

Almost imperceptably, the downfall of Crédit Immobilier de France (CIF) has been and gone just a few days afer Moodys gave it the thumbs-down. Not many folks as yet (as far as I can see) have drawn a parallel between this event and the grisly demise of Northern Rock in the UK. But it is there, nevertheless.

Like Northern Crock, it has a tiny deposit base, and a massive reliance on wholesale markets for the vast majority of its funding. Wholesale costs go up as mid-to-southern Europe gets increasingly liquidity-frozen and….p’doing, down goes CIF. What this goes to show is that there is far more to contagion than just a mere debt-domino connection – although that is massively important. What we see here is lunatic business-models (written in the mad old days of New Paradigm) colliding with the reality of a eurozone rendered catatonic by a three-way impasse.

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/cif-collapse-this-is-going-to-be-a-bank-run-not-a-fun-run/

GDP · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:13pm

it might have already been said but you made the Max Keiser page...got my bro to convert his sons savings account to a 1 oz gold Philharmonic! Slowly but surely, one by one, you pieces of shi...I mean turdites...keep stackin...never doubt why your here...those reasons are still ringing loud and clear...the sickness is rising...never doubt how you feel...your "DOWN WITH THE SICKNESS"...

*I tipped myself so it wasn't an odd number...:)

Mr. Fix SIlverbee · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:16pm

@Silverbee,

I'd go to :

Harvey Organ's Blogspot.com

He keeps a daily tally.

murphy · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:16pm

Here is another reason why miners lose money. What do you think of these numbers regarding First Majestic?

last quarter results

Silver price was down 27% from the previous period the year before. After tax earnings down 50%. Production was up 8% qoq from 2011. It decreased it's production costs per ton by 10%. Yet, eps declined 51% to .14 per share. Why did a 27% decrease in silver price cause a 51% decrease?

G and A expenses increased from 7.5% to almost 14%. Additionally, they lost $3.6M on investments mainly from an investment with Sprott's Physical silver and $2.5M in silver futures.

If it weren't for their investment losses they would have only been down due to the silver price. So here is a miner that has decreased production costs percentage wise and increased milled tons 28%. Only to lose money because of bad paper investments.

We should all be writing our miners telling them to hold more physical and get out of the paper markets.

¤ · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:17pm

Admittedly, and not proud to be so, but I'm not nearly as prepped as some or most of you sound to be.

There is probably a few reasons for that, none of which is that I don't see the value or need etc. Quite the contrary. I'm always feeling a lot less prepared as I hear everyone discuss their own preps.

I'm hoping and mentally preparing to do so on a better level in the near future and just haven't been able to muster the resources due to some priorities and dwelling more on stacking. But I have every intention to do so asap when I can do so.

A piece of property out in the country sounds so far out of reach right now and probably the most desirable thing I could hope for and want.

I think it boils down to me not being surrounded by a severely degraded cityscape/suburban environment around me. I don't feel threatened and I don't see any threats of decay or attitude. Quite the contrary. 

From what I know and have read/seen and also hear from many of you, I fully realize the need for the prepping part of it but I haven't quite gone there just yet. At some point soon (hopefully) I'll go full bore on it and catch up and possibly exceed what I can't even imagine right now.

That might sound like a lot of hopium and "too little, too late" and maybe that's true. I'm 'hoping' for things to not quite unravel to the level we think it could or will get to and that this period right now will stagnate longer then we would hope for, like Japan except on steroids and for a shorter period of time (10-12 yrs.)

At that point and way before then, I'll be prepped. The question is...will I (like some of you also) have enough time to satisfactorily catch up?

I think so.

Time - Pink Floyd (1973)
Roark · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:18pm

No different than stacking, really. Everyone looks at things a little differently. Everyone has a different living situation. The only thing we agree on, is the possibility of The End. From there on, its all subject to interpretation. Where. When. How. So we all do it differently, and in our own style/pace. The important thing is that first step. Its a journey AND a destination. As long as you are doing it properly to the beat of your own true drum, and as long as you are prepared the accept the consequences of being wrong, then it's "right" for you. IMHO

· Sep 2, 2012 - 4:22pm

I am pretty darn bullish about Monday too! But it seems a chronic state with me. I am excited (well, not really) to see if, once we get what I assume will be more accommodative rhetoric from the ECB, and some about face from the Bundesbank (or all bets are off), they actually fire up the presses. I am also liking all the long weekends coming up, as the wolves seem to dine on the long weekends, when convenient to them.

abguy4 · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:25pm

Hey,

I was just listening to Jim Bakker.

He says the drought is god's way of eradicating the GMO crops.

Or

He's mad at gay farmers.

I can't remember which it was.

;-}

Bollocks · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:37pm

This is interesting.

David Duke:

"Do Zionists Control Wall Street?
The Shocking Facts!"

Do Zionists Control Wall Street? The Shocking Facts!
· Sep 2, 2012 - 4:40pm
Korean founder of Unification Church dead at 92
· Sep 2, 2012 - 4:41pm

or am I wrong?

¤ · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:42pm

Unfortunately, I don't think this situation waits until the U.S. election.

I think if you're Iran, you're in a no win situation and the period before the election is their opportunity to get their licks in. Maybe in a soft power way as much as possible but if they wait until after the US election then I think it's a foregone conclusion they'll get attacked and their window will have ben closed to get the first punch in.

They'll only get one 'first chance' and I have to believe their considering and probably planning on it. I'm just trying to look at it from both sides and what they might see. I think they're resigned to the fact something is going to happen. Just a matter of who, what and when maybe.

I'm guessing that no matter what that Iran wants to close the Strait of Hormuz or mess with the Suez Canal at the very least no matter what happens to them ultimately. Messing with Israel is also obviously one of their priorities but I mean long term physical assets of global consequence like the Strait and the Suez Canal.

My sense overall is that very few countries in MENA trust their own allies outside of MENA. I also think with so much power and naval/military assets to bear in such a relatively small area that a 'incident' of some sort will happen because everyone's been on high alert and trigger happy for awhile. My guess is that a speedboat incident happens. We've already seen a pleasure boat type of incident off of Bahrain (?) getting taken out by a U.S. military vessel. 

I think at this point with so many things going on in MENA that you could throw a dart at a list of possible ignition sources and anyone of them might be the catalyst at any given time.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

August 31, 2012

Iran's 'Soft Power' Offensive

Nicole Dow, CNN

Iran’s soft power messaging?

There’s a power struggle going on in the Middle East – a quiet competition between two nations over quite differing ideologies, approaches and rhetoric. The main players in this face-off? Iran and Saudi Arabia. But there’s an interesting twist.

Sectarian differences are at the root of the brewing rivalry for regional supremacy in the Middle East, a rivalry thrust into the spotlight as a result of the crisis in Syria. According to a former senior White House official, it is a case of soft power messaging vs hard power. But in this case, the soft power is coming from Tehran.... Read Full Article ››

https://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/31/irans-soft-power-mes...

murphy · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:44pm

I'm sure that he is not Santa..... but it sort of looks like Puck.

Bluesguy- relax we are all on the same team here. I assume since you just signed up three weeks ago that you have not been lurking long.

Just like the Bernank says about gold. Being first is just a silly tradition. Welcome aboard. Just don't lose your stash while saying first when you refresh.

BagOfGold · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:52pm

There is an alternative...

https://www.dignam.com/

But keep in mind...much of the land for sale here...is very remote...do not have a "water source" right on the property...like a river...lake...etc!...& then there would be the added expense of digging a well!...However...if there is a will...there is ALWAYS a way!...For only a few $1000 down...it is still possible!...Believe in yourself...never let your dream get away from you!!!...

Bag Of Gold

· Sep 2, 2012 - 4:55pm

I like it.

Colonel Angus · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:56pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/first-platinum-now-gold-south-african-min...

If these mine strikes keep up in South Africa, it isn't going to make the gold price happy at all. Got gold? I used to. Damn canoe.

Cobalt Silver · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:58pm

Just back from a few hours of swinging the metal detector. Turn on the news and am told that the Rev. Moon is dead and that Bishop Tutu is calling for Bush and Blair to be tried by the ICC for war crimes. Think W will lose any sleep?

Notable finds today included a musket ball and a Mexican coin from 1939 but no silver: (

Short Stack · Sep 2, 2012 - 4:59pm

Am I to understand that the nationality requirements have been lifted ?

When I was visiting/touring Canada back a few decades ago I was told make sure you have enough money to see your way, because if you even lift up a hammer in work for someone and expect to get paid for it and you are not a Canadian citizen you could be thrown in prison. Same went for land and home ownership.

¤ · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:00pm

Chicken on the grill today for dinner.

Best in the West BBQ Cookoff
¤ · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:04pm

Sept. 2, 2012, 4:38 p.m. EDT

ESM head to Der Spiegel: rescue fund needs Germany

By kgibson[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Kate Gibson), MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The European Stability Mechanism won’t succeed if Germany’s highest court rules against it, the chief of the rescue fund told a German news weekly, according to reports published Saturday.

“Without Germany, the ESM doesn’t make any sense,” Klaus Regling, told Der Spiegel in an interview to be published Monday, Britain’s Telegraph and Bloomberg News reported.


Reuters Economic problems continue to plague euro-zone nations.

If all euro-area nations meet budget consolidation targets and increase their competitiveness, the sovereign debt crisis could end within two years, Regling also told the magazine.

The European Financial Stability Facility has succeeded in preventing the worst possible scenarios of the debt crisis, now in its third year, Regling said of the EFSF, scheduled to be replaced by the permanent ESM.

The launch of ESM is dependent upon a ruling due Sept. 12 from Germany’s constitutional court.

“If it weren’t for us, Portugal and Ireland would probably no longer be in the euro zone,” Regling told Der Spiegel.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/esm-head-to-der-spiegel-rescue-fund-ne...

· Sep 2, 2012 - 5:10pm

Forex and World Market Hours

New York - Opens on Sep 3rd, 2012 London - Opens on Sep 3rd, 2012 Tokyo - Opens in 2 Hrs. 52 mins. Sydney - Closes in 8 Hrs. 52 mins. ​Link with cool graphic
Cobalt Silver Short Stack · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:16pm

Thrown in prison!!!?!! What do you think this is, New Mexico? If you had to work and in the unlikely event were caught simply apply for refugee status and you are good for at least a year. Any foreigner has to screw up pretty bad to end up in jail. We have a right wing demagogue running things right now but he has not changed our tolerant and common sense culture yet.

Roark · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:21pm

Yeah.... but... You guys have polar bears. I will take the snakes and alligators locally anyday. :)

opticsguy · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:21pm

It seems that December 33 SLV calls are underpriced. They were were $1.20 as of Friday. If silver goes to $50 by EOY these could be worth $16 and change. The Black/Scholes options pricing equation doesn't take JPM manipulation into account, just day to day volatility. Volatility of silver and gold were low for the last few months, so options got underpriced. This is what happens when you try to fit markets into a Gaussian distribution.

disclaimer: NOT an investment advisor, not investment advice, and I do own some of these. I'm too lazy to set up a futures account so I use SLV and GLD calls to play the swings.

swampman · Sep 2, 2012 - 5:24pm

This was just e-mailed to me. You may want to adjust what you put in both devices.

Not all thieves are stupid.

This gives us something to think about with all our new electronic technology.

GPS
A couple of weeks ago a friend told me that someone she knew had their car broken into while they were at a football game. Their car was parked on the green which was adjacent to the football stadium and specially allotted to football fans. Things stolen from the car included a garage door remote control, some money and a GPS which had been prominently mounted on the dashboard.
When the victims got home, they found that their house had been ransacked and just about everything worth anything had been stolen. The thieves had used the GPS to guide them to the house. They then used the garage remote control to open the garage door and gain entry to the house. The thieves knew the owners were at the football game, they knew what time the game was scheduled to finish and so they knew how much time they had to clean out the house. It would appear that they had brought a truck to empty the house of its contents.

Something to consider if you have a GPS - don't put your home address in it.. Put a nearby address (like a store or gas station) so you can still find your way home if you need to, but no one else would know where you live if your GPS were stolen.



MOBILE PHONES

I never thought of this.......

This lady has now changed her habit of how she lists her names on her mobile phone after her handbag was stolen. Her handbag, which contained her cell phone, credit card, wallet... Etc...was stolen.

20 minutes later when she called her hubby, from a pay phone telling him what had happened, hubby says 'I received your text asking about our Pin number and I've replied a little while ago.' When they rushed down to the bank, the bank staff told them all the money was already withdrawn. The thief had actually used the stolen cell phone to text 'hubby' in the contact list and got hold of the pin number. Within 20 minutes he had withdrawn all the money from their bank account.





Moral of the lesson :

Do not disclose the relationship between you and the people in your contact list.

Avoid using names like Home, Honey, Hubby, Sweetheart, Dad, Mom, etc....

And very importantly, when sensitive info is being asked through texts, CONFIRM by calling back.

Also, when you're being texted by friends or family to meet them somewhere, be sure to call back to confirm that the message came from them. If you don't reach them, be very careful about going places to meet 'family and friends' who text you..

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 10/29

10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

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