Come Tuesday

Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 3, 2012 - 12:16am


Typical store: As you enter, you see "today's gold price" in RMB per gram of 999 gold. That price includes the work that went into making the decorative pieces and jewelry. It is surprisingly close to spot price though. So basically everything has its weight on a little tag and you pay per gram. I think you need to go to a branch of Bank of China to buy pandas. But most of the banks also sell you gold in most shapes and sizes.

Nigel Black
Sep 3, 2012 - 12:19am


I was also in China a few months ago in several major cities. You are right about the gold shops - I too was blown away by all of the non-jewellery gold (i.e. bullion - bars of all shapes and weights) that was being sold to the general public. And yes, I saw many people buying.

It is sad what is happening in America and in Europe - trading your gold for dirt cheap prices to survive whilst a lot of the Chinese are converting their fiat into gold.

Sep 3, 2012 - 12:36am


I just wanted to say hello Turdville! I just joined..... been a lurker on/off for several months. I have a small stack..... looking to add as funds permit. I wish I had been on this wagon a few years ago. Late to the party......... story of my life.


Dagney Taggart
Sep 3, 2012 - 12:46am


The graph doesn't show flash moves.

Top-left corner: Was 32.00 for yesterday. Showing 31.96 for 3 September now.

Sep 3, 2012 - 12:47am

Apples, Corn and Coke

On the apple issue--an article yesterday in the Chicago newspapers discussed how light the apple crop is in this part of the midwest.

Also my wife came home with locally grown corn this weekend and it was crispy and sweet--I think it was $1 per ear.

Finally I was at a grocery store today--I used to buy 2 liter bottles of Coke for around a dollar as recently as last year--the price had moved up to close to $2 but today it was $2.19. The funny part is that pepsi products can stil be bought for $1 for 2 liter. Is Coke experimenting with higher prices. If so will pepsi not joining them cost coke market share?

In any event, I see prices increasing but not causing inflation--we wil do without coke or apples or corn. Substitute water for coke thus driving down cost of food.

things are getting crazy.

Sep 3, 2012 - 12:57am

Hello - first post

I just wanted to say "Hello Turdville!" I just joined and have been a lurker on/off for several months. I have a small stack and would like to add as funds allow. I know... I know.... I'm late to the party..... Story of my life. Anyway, Hi!


Sep 3, 2012 - 12:58am

Dagney, Baby !

I love your new Avatar foto .... I call it "Hair Inflation" ! Will you have my children .... I mean will you adopt them .... and take them off my hands ? They love our Tijuana slum .... but, I'm sure they'll get used to your Royal Suite in Banff in no time ! They are out house trained ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Dreams Of A Real Father

Sep 3, 2012 - 1:18am

Federal Debt priced in gold

That chart of US debt is really cool. So money printing does work! I guess if they take the value of the dollar to zero they can pay off the debt with a gold eagle and still have change for dinner and a movie.

The problem is, that there should be more wealth in the US than its debt. If it takes all the dollars in the US to pay the debt, people will have nothing. No property, no savings, dick.

Not good.

But since things are headed that way, I will put a gold eagle aside, I bags Florida.


Nigel Black
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:39am

no nuthin...

"The problem is, that there should be more wealth in the US than its debt. If it takes all the dollars in the US to pay the debt, people will have nothing. No property, no savings, dick.

Not good."

I think that is exactly what the banksters want - they own everything, we own nuthin...

StrongsidejediDagney Taggart
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:46am

@Dagney Taggart - what's your problem?

The silver chart at Kitco clearly says Silver high of 31.9+

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Recent Comments

by SquibLoad, 14 min 7 sec ago
by Blackwatersailor, 59 min 30 sec ago
by allenb, 1 hour 15 min ago

Forum Discussion

by HappyNow, 12 hours 6 min ago
by argentus maximus, 13 hours 19 min ago
by zman, Feb 17, 2020 - 10:01pm
by argentus maximus, Feb 17, 2020 - 7:27am
by NW VIEW, Feb 16, 2020 - 6:46pm