Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  454 Comments

  Refresh
¤
Sep 3, 2012 - 2:42pm

SEC/ DRS

Holding Your Securities— Get the Facts

As an individual investor, you have up to three choices when it comes to holding your securities:

Physical Certificate — The security is registered in your name on the issuer's books, and you receive an actual, hard copy stock or bond certificate representing your ownership of the security.
"Street Name" Registration — The security is registered in the name of your brokerage firm on the issuer's books, and your brokerage firm holds the security for you in "book-entry" form. "Book-entry" simply means that you do not receive a certificate. Instead, your broker keeps a record in its books that you own that particular security.

"Direct" Registration — The security is registered in your name on the issuer's books, and either the company or its transfer agent holds the security for you in book-entry form. The "Direct Registration System" (also known as "DRS") allows investors to transfer securities held this way.

For more information about DRS, please see our Frequently Asked Questions below...

https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/holdsec.htm

murphy
Sep 3, 2012 - 2:30pm

@Libero- Direct registration

Don't have much time to answer your question regarding registration of shares but JS Kim spent 4 pages on answering the question since many subscribers asked it as well.

Short answer is yes it's safer. As long as the courts don't back up the banks like they did recently, (good luck with that). But know it will take at least 3 to 5 business days in order to sell your stocks out. How much does that delay mean to you? It could be a difference of making money or losing I would guess.

But the bottom line as far as he (I) am concerned is, that is why we hold at least 50% in physical, compared to mining stocks or other paper products. If the paper markets implode and everyone's accounts just vanish, the price of physical will go supernova. More than making up for your paper investments.

GoldMania3000
Sep 3, 2012 - 2:24pm

(No subject)

Full Interview With Billionaire Frank Giustra
treefrog
Sep 3, 2012 - 2:17pm

happy labor day!

breaking news! labor day has been cancelled due to lack of jobs.

put an empty chair in your front yard to thank clint for bringing this to our attention.

Nigel BlackPablo
Sep 3, 2012 - 2:11pm

@pablo

Don't laugh too hard ... a relative the other day told me the same thing, thus they are buying gubermint bonds for "safety".

Sad, but the TPTB's propaganda does work. (bangs head on wall)

Pablo
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:57pm

Oh no! Apparently gold is backed by.... Nothing!

The US$ is of course, backed by the government - no worries there folks!

Video unavailable
thesandbox
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:53pm

Labor on....

Fun little day everyone...now back to mixing and mastering a project in the studio. Be back in time for tonights open. ;) If you guys ever need more tunes to listen to there is a wide variety of things I have worked on here...when not flying. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sandbox-Productions-Recording-Studio-Rock...

Short Stack
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:47pm

Welcome Quisp

Since no one else has volunteered to be the Welcoming Committee today, I guess I'll be the one. Every ones too distracted at staring at the Spot Prices and then blogging about it to give a Newbie a Welcome around here. But, I mean, can you blame them.

Happy Stacking.

Short Stack
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:39pm

@Tmosley

I still feel like the fiat price is a worthless indicator

I agree but right now we don't have much else than fiat to base the value of gold on.

I would very much like some other bases for gold but I don't get paid in (as examples), wheat, corn, oats or cattle.

Or goats.

Eric Original
Sep 3, 2012 - 1:36pm

Mickey re: IRA's

You are correct, but it's even worse than that. I know of many clients and family where the IRA distributions (which are required after age 70.5) singlehandedly push their Social Security income from little or none being taxed, up to the max 85% of it being taxed. It's a huge double whammy if it hits you just right.

Personally, I took the hit upfront and converted all our traditional IRA's to Roth's. Sure, there could be other problems, but the really big ugly problems (that we know of) on future tax returns are avoided.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:36pm
by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:25pm
by TexasTonto, Jul 11, 2020 - 5:19pm
by ja1920voo, Jul 11, 2020 - 11:37am
by tork311, Jul 10, 2020 - 3:17pm