Come Tuesday

454
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 12:52pm

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

Jimmy Buffett "Come Monday/Changes In Latitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

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  454 Comments

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ClinkinKY
Sep 4, 2012 - 1:43pm
Tube
Sep 4, 2012 - 12:14pm

last

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SaratogaPrepper
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:42am

refresh

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New Thread!

145Bluesman
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:40am

@ Dr J and first

I have been refreshing the page with feverish intent to no avail, hoping to be one of the coveted and highly acclaimed respected short list of those that have achieved the ultimate "first".

I can say this with pride however,,,

FIRST ON PAGE TEN YEA !!

stingbee30
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:36am

Re: Daily Take

It appears on the daily charts, we are seeing a good support @32.00 for Silver. We are seeingg a tight trading range between $32.00-$32.25. We are consolidating once again in this area. It appears that any selling (Algos, short-term selling, etc) is met with buying. The Bulls are winning the fight as we speak....

As I said before, we almost got to $32.50 before Nymex opened. I'm still seeing a run before the close, and we could see a close above $32.50. In the Globex market, we could see Silver spiking to around $33.00 by the end of the day....

We just need to cool down on the verbiage of sensationalism such as "Smack-down" or "raids". With all due respect, this sounds more like a sound bite than anything else. The daily charts are healthy, and showing signs of further spikes to come (Tuesday, and Wednesday) looks like a Green day to me...

A close above $32.50 will be another defeat for the short sellers. This means their short bids are not working, and they have to cover. They know once Silver breaches the $33.00 mark, it will set-up more Buy-Stops orders and more covering. The $32.50-$33.00 run could be a quick run as Bulls will try to corner the shorts.

Good luck...

sniem
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:30am
¤
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:25am
Bollocks
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:14am

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eyeswideopen
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:13am

The Bull needs a drink

Nothing wrong with a little rest here. Moving up into an area of congestion. Slower move up means less profit taking on Friday IMHO.

Germany ESM decision (Sept 12?) looming. Europe expands first, then Fed has some cover.

Currency wars heating up.

¤
Sep 4, 2012 - 11:02am

Market down / Miners up

Good sign I think. Who'll get dragged through the PM mud? The shorts or the longs?

Which side are you on?

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