One More Day

369
Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - 10:28am

Well, it's Thursday. This can only mean two things: 1) Just one more day until The JacksonHoleDown and 2) College football season begins tonight!

For all intents and purposes, here's the only thing that seems to matter right now:

8/31/12 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernank
Monetary Policy Since the Crisis
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
10 a.m. EDT

I suppose I could wax philosophic and even poetic about momo algos and Cartel capping but what would be the point? For today, I'm confident that we will simply trade back and forth between 30.60 and 30.80 in silver and 1660 and 1670 in gold. <yawn>

Look, I don't have a crystal ball for Fed-speak. The only person who knows what The Bernank will mutter tomorrow is The Bernank, himself. (Well, and maybe his butt-boy, Hilsenrath.) However, I can tell you this:

  • The fundamentals for the metals are overwhelmingly positive
  • The charts look poised for another leg higher

Might I be wrong? Of course. However, I'm confident that any Cartel-inspired Fed gaming tomorrow will be met with considerable bids for physical metal at discounted prices. This unceasing physical demand will continue to provide a floor for paper price and, consequently, any dip tomorrow must be bought.

That said, they may not be a dip to buy. Look at these charts. First, here are the daily charts showing that, after the runup last week, prices are simply consolidating in the zone where you would expect them to:

But now look at these 4-hour charts that include the 4-hour Relative Strength Indices. Remember, RSI is simply a measurement that allows you to assess the degree to which a market may be "overbought" or "oversold", in the short-term. The sideways action this week, though enfeebling and frustrating, allowed us the time to work off some RSIs that had worked well into the short-term overbought area. Note that, on the charts below, the RSIs have now retrenched back to the levels last seen before the big blastoff two weeks ago. This is a very positive sign that the markets are poised to move higher again and I would expect that move to begin very soon.

Have a great day!

TF

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  369 Comments

El Gordo
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:30am

Part time residents in Texas...

The people who venture to south Texas for the winter months are known as "winter Texans" buy the local Chamber of Commerce types, and as "snow birds" or "snow bunnies" by the locals. I'm a native Texican but I spent one winter working on a project in South Texas and frankly I found most of them to be pretty down to earth people. I particularly enjoyed seeing bikini clad coeds coming down from Canada in late February, and they do make a significant contribution to the local economy. I suspect that some of them are stackers, so that's the relevance of this post.


Aug 31, 2012 - 8:30am

Ivars

Wow--that is amazing--that we Americans, who have a Bill of rights guarantee of free speech, are more constrained than the empire we once feared and considered anathema to everything we believe in. How deluded I have been most of my life! We Americans really are the proverbial frog in the slowly boiling pot of water--and now it is hotter than in the communist Soviet Union.

S&P & DOW futures are up strongly? Market juicing or do insiders know something. AG back to yesterday's highs? But AU flat?

The ears of the financial world pine for the Bernanke to tickle them and promise goodies.

I'm going to go create some quizzes today. Can't watch. much...

Excalibur
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:38am

Number 47

If Number 47 is in prison, I wonder what his reaction to this might be? Maybe he'll get another few months for starting a riot.

Ulster Bank customers blast £20 compensation scheme

Customers from Ulster Bank, part of the RBS group, are furious with a £20 compensation offer for weeks of banking disruption.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/banking/9511448/Ulster-Bank-customers-blast-20-compensation-scheme.html


Aug 31, 2012 - 8:39am

bikini clad Canadians are stackers!

el Gordo - that is an understatement. And I will resist the temptation to spoil your breakfast with a photo of Pamela Anderson. Or not:

but I made it much smaller so her silicone could fit inside the frame.

opticsguy
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:41am

Fudgies

If you're from N. Michigan, you'll know this term. The summer tourists who fill the t-shirt and fudge shops. I think this term started in Mackinaw Island or Traverse City.

Then there were the Cadillacs with Florida plates driving with 2 wheels on the shoulder of the road at 30 MPH. Lucky for us, those cars were around only 3 months of the year.

Just A Regular Guy
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:41am

USD Index moving south

Gold/Silver up on USD weakness..... hmmmmmm interesting.

Byzantium
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:44am

@opticsguy

unless one never leaves the ranch, we are all at times, fudgies, bunnies or snow birds, when we go on tour.


Aug 31, 2012 - 8:45am

This says Bernanke to speak at 2 p.m.

US Dollar Barely Off of August Lows Ahead of Jackson Hole

By Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

​31 August 2012 12:15 GMT

The US Dollar has pared yesterday’s gains thus far on Friday, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker:USDOLLAR) falling by less than one half of one percent to come within 0.55% of its low set on August 23. This is quite a coincidence, with the US Dollar falling today towards the August 23 low ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, as that date was when the Federal Reserve July 31 to August 1 meeting Minutes were released, which cued investors to look towards today’s events for a closer look at monetary policy in the world’s largest economy....

....

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/morning_slices/2012/08/3...

murphy
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:45am

interesting

AGQ up 1.29 right now, slw up .41


Aug 31, 2012 - 8:47am

Good Morning and the Rule of Dumb:

Man, feminists will invent anything! Penis mightier than sword, deconstructed once again:

Rule of thumb

The earliest such 'measurement' use that I can find referred to in print is in a journal of amusing tales with the comprehensive title of Witt's Recreations - Augmented with Ingenious Conceites for the Wittie and Merrie Medicines for the Melancholic. It was published in 1640 and contains this rhyme:

If Hercules tall stature might be guess'd
But by his thumb, the index of the rest,
In due proportion, the best rule that I
Would chuse, to measure Venus beauty by,
Should be her leg and foot:

The 'rule of leg' never caught on.

https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/rule-of-thumb.html

murphy
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:50am

Xty

I heard 10am. How u feeling?

El Gordo George Clooney
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:50am

Xty

Thanks for the thought, but I'm old fashioned and never really got into plastics or tattoos.

Big Buffalo
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:51am

News Flash: Facebook

currently at $18.60 (i think that's an all time low).

Facebook may not survive 2013.

Back to Oil, Silver, and Gold

silver foil hat opticsguy
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:53am

In Florida

....you can tell the age of the driver by subtracting the speed at which the vehicle is traveling on the interstate from 100.

Try it next time you are there. It's more accurate than the TITS index. There. That made this on topic.

Big Buffalo
Aug 31, 2012 - 8:55am

Just a couple thoughts

1) It's Friday

2) It's the end of the month

3) It's a 3 day weekend

profit taking, profit taking, profit taking. Be careful.

Bollocks
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:00am

They're coming, and guess what? Yup, we have NO say in it...

Drone tried out in Newsnight studio

They might be most familiar to us from science fiction movies, or perhaps as high tech weapons in the skies over Iraq or Afghanistan.

But over the next decade, expect to see drones coming to the skies near you.

Vast sums are being spent on civilian drone projects, from police surveillance to amateur photography...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19436049

(my bold and underline)

opticsguy
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:10am

@Byzantium

If you're from FL or drive a Caddie, no offense intended.

On topic, what's the deal with AU (down) and GOLD (up 2%)?

Bollocks
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:12am

Magnitude-7.9 earthquake strikes...

...off the coast of the Philippines - tsunami warning issued.

No link yet, breaking news.


Aug 31, 2012 - 9:13am

oops - 1400 GMT = 10 am EDT -

PRECIOUS-Gold firms ahead of Bernanke speech

Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:24pm IST

(Updates prices)

* Markets weigh up prospect of more monetary stimulus

* Gold, silver, platinum set for best monthly rise since Jan

* Coming up: Fed chief Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole, 1400 GMT

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Gold prices firmed on Friday ahead of a speech from Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at which he is expected to give clues as to the likelihood of another round of U.S. monetary stimulus.

Bernanke's speech at 1400 GMT will be closely watched for signs that the Fed is considering another imminent round of gold-friendly moves to boost growth such as quantitative easing, or money printing to buy bonds....

https://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/markets-precious-idINL6E8JV7L9...

opticsguy
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:15am

quake

That's in really deep water. Hopefully this isn't a precursor to a really big slip along this fault.

Beastly Stack
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:23am

MOONSHOT FRIDAY?

There is no way THE BERNANK disappoints today!

I bought at 1664 this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17 handle in a couple of hours.

If not I really don't think you will see a brutal smackdown like many of you are so accustomed to seeing.

If that happens shame on me!

I think the markets are recognizing that THERE IS NO OTHER ALTERNATIVE THAN QE!

The US is screwed!

ivars
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:24am

Dr. Jerome

A nation must always have an new Apollo program to mobilize it for great achievements in every sphere. Beating SU standards in speech/communication control is very challenging and thus right target.


Aug 31, 2012 - 9:27am

Waiting for Bernanke, a tragicomedy ...

Waiting for Godot

A country road. A tree.


Evening.




Estragon, sitting on a low mound, is trying to take off his boot. He pulls at it with both hands, panting. #
tragicomedy in 2 acts
By
Samuel Beckett
Act 1
He gives up, exhausted, rests, tries again.
As before.
Enter Vladimir.
ESTRAGON:
(giving up again). Nothing to be done.
VLADIMIR:
(advancing with short, stiff strides, legs wide apart). I'm beginning to come round to that opinion. All my life I've tried to put it from me, saying Vladimir, be reasonable, you haven't yet tried everything. And I resumed the struggle. (He broods, musing on the struggle. Turning to Estragon.) So there you are again.
ESTRAGON:
Am I?
VLADIMIR:
I'm glad to see you back. I thought you were gone forever.
ESTRAGON:
Me too....
https://samuel-beckett.net/Waiting_for_Godot_Part1.html
Groaner
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:28am

If Bernank does nothing, man there will be a huge

drop in all the markets.. They have to know this, everyone is expecting something from the Criminals

debtless
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:28am

Now that everyone's in...

Now that everyone's in that's coming today into the Euro, PMs and equities, they will pull the rug out from under the most people they can at 10am. Just another big pump & dump.

Who is it Iwonder - who keeps getting fooled on these obvious tactics?

debtless
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:28am

Now that everyone's in...

Now that everyone's in that's coming today into the Euro, PMs and equities, they will pull the rug out from under the most people they can at 10am. Just another big pump & dump.

Who is it I wonder - who keeps getting fooled on these obvious tactics?

Zoltan
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:29am

Beware the Whip Saw

One thing is for sure, there will be volatility. Join the chat channel for the BB drinking game this morning for some good laughs.

Will chip in to the new thread with a lease rate update. No spike yet, maybe for next week? The day is still young though.

Z

PS Check out the new avatar. Thanks Pining, Turd, Steph for everything.

Terp
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:29am
Byzantium
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:31am

@opticsguy

I am not from the states at all, so don't feel constrained to tease Floridians on my account.

¤
Aug 31, 2012 - 9:32am

Something tantalizing dangled, but not offered officially(yet)?

Aug. 31, 2012, 9:14 a.m. EDT

SF Fed's Williams prefers open-end purchases

By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he prefers open-end purchases as a way for the central bank to ease further. Without further action, he said the U.S. economy will grow around 2% for this year and next. In an interview with CNBC from Jackson Hole, the Federal Open Market Committee voter also said he'd like to move away from calendar-date focused communication but cautioned against focusing on only one number.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sf-feds-williams-prefers-open-end-purc...

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