One More Day

Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - 10:28am

Well, it's Thursday. This can only mean two things: 1) Just one more day until The JacksonHoleDown and 2) College football season begins tonight!

For all intents and purposes, here's the only thing that seems to matter right now:

8/31/12 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernank
Monetary Policy Since the Crisis
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
10 a.m. EDT

I suppose I could wax philosophic and even poetic about momo algos and Cartel capping but what would be the point? For today, I'm confident that we will simply trade back and forth between 30.60 and 30.80 in silver and 1660 and 1670 in gold. <yawn>

Look, I don't have a crystal ball for Fed-speak. The only person who knows what The Bernank will mutter tomorrow is The Bernank, himself. (Well, and maybe his butt-boy, Hilsenrath.) However, I can tell you this:

  • The fundamentals for the metals are overwhelmingly positive
  • The charts look poised for another leg higher

Might I be wrong? Of course. However, I'm confident that any Cartel-inspired Fed gaming tomorrow will be met with considerable bids for physical metal at discounted prices. This unceasing physical demand will continue to provide a floor for paper price and, consequently, any dip tomorrow must be bought.

That said, they may not be a dip to buy. Look at these charts. First, here are the daily charts showing that, after the runup last week, prices are simply consolidating in the zone where you would expect them to:

But now look at these 4-hour charts that include the 4-hour Relative Strength Indices. Remember, RSI is simply a measurement that allows you to assess the degree to which a market may be "overbought" or "oversold", in the short-term. The sideways action this week, though enfeebling and frustrating, allowed us the time to work off some RSIs that had worked well into the short-term overbought area. Note that, on the charts below, the RSIs have now retrenched back to the levels last seen before the big blastoff two weeks ago. This is a very positive sign that the markets are poised to move higher again and I would expect that move to begin very soon.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 30, 2012 - 12:26pm

@ Fired

Thank you for the nice compliment! I love Maui, especially the Northwest side of the island. My wife and I plan to have a part time place there some day. After the silver moon-shot probably.


Aug 30, 2012 - 12:33pm

Turd - If Silver Breaks 30

Do you see it falling back to where hit broke out - 28.20 - 28.30 area? Thanks for all your hard work

bratlever Silver_investor
Aug 30, 2012 - 12:35pm

At 10:13 am Tradestation

At 10:13 am Tradestation closed my September mini silver contracts. I wonder if in a low volume environment that kind of action might excite the HFT algos to work their stew pot?

Aug 30, 2012 - 12:37pm

Bernanke Caught on Video as he Departs for Jackson Hole

Here's the latest RNN Newscast. In today's Midday News we update the recent Metals movement, we discuss the rumours circulating about Morgan Stanley and we reveal an exclusive secret/surprise video of Federal reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke as he catches his flight to Jackson Hole Wyoming. Ben really likes jelly donuts.

Exclusive Video Surfaces of Bernanke Departing for Jackson Hole | Donuts | Morgan Stanley Troubles?
Aug 30, 2012 - 12:40pm

The boys at Jackson hole

Are going to tear us a new hole. They are only getting started. We have 24 hours of getting raped by a horse before they will be done for the weekend. In the meantime, you will sure get a good deal on your silver tomorrow. Its been a fun suckers rally. I for one was one of those suckers. I really thought we were onto something. Now we wait for 27.50 for silver and after that we wait till November 22. I see it no other way. Im not trying to be the pessimist but Im just a realist. The cartel cannot let silver get out of control before the elections. Period! However, if Im wrong, which Im wrong a lot, I will man up to it but Ive been stating for months now that we have to wait till after the elections before anything happens. The government can hold things together much longer than most think. Its been 4 years since 2008. They have held things together for 4 years. Pretty impressive. Its amazing what you can accomplish with unlimited amounts of money and determination. Im not on their side, but just stating a fact.

paulindoon OC15
Aug 30, 2012 - 12:41pm

Re: $5 MS Jan14 Put Options

My options chart for $5 MS Jan14 Put Options shows 0.07 Bid/0.08 Ask V @ 29!

OC15- did you do a typo????

Sorry I'm wrong for I was looking @ Jan13

Aug 30, 2012 - 12:47pm

Question for Cartel conspiracists

Some time ago I set up a set of charts that I can watch, all on one page. They are silver, gold, dollar, euro, crude, DOW and S&P. I have noticed for a long time that nearly always when we see one of those waterfall drops in silver, there are also corresponding movements in those other charts. Most especially the Dollar and Euro, but also crude, if not all of them. I've become very curious lately as to how they manage to get all of those corresponding moves to take place nearly in sync with each other. Any explanations?

Beastly Stack
Aug 30, 2012 - 12:54pm


Mickey,you are a pathetic excuse of a man.Go away!

Tobydaniel,go back a couple of threads,I believe last week where a few turdites posted pictures with the theme "head in the Sand"

Are you the one with his head up you know where?

Contain silver until the election,90% of americans have no idea where the price of silver and gold are,NOT A CLUE!

Stop with the nonsense!

Aug 30, 2012 - 12:55pm

Re: Support levels

$30.20 (Short-term support, will be attacked, possibly breached by today)

$30.00 (Support line 2)

Support 3: $29.80 (this will be almost a 5% correction from the recent high of $31.30)...Steep correction..On SLV charts, this would almost complete the recent gap-up (somewhere around $28.80-$28.90 on SLV)... You are not going to see anything below this because of many factors. I think by the time the Chairmen speaks tomorrow, we could already be there, and could close green for Friday (the reason is that the US market will be closed on Monday, too much happening in EUROPE to go short...Most short-term shorts will cover, and the longer shorts will do some more covering by Friday)...

Good luck....I hardly call this a "Smack Down"...3-5% correction will be a normal trend from the recent high.

Colonel Angus
Aug 30, 2012 - 12:59pm


Why all the hysteria? They will give the people another chance to stack the shiny stuff if they drop the price. In the end, only one thing is going to be torn, and it will be on TPTB...if the sane ones of us continue to stack.

I bought myself a lot of silver when the Cartel facilitated my purchases under 27. If they get back to 28, I'd say it would be time to go on a shopping spree.

And if the price goes up, then all the traders who have some silver will be happy. Whatever. I'm a bit of a boring type.

And, even though the old Windbag (Happy 822nd birthday to Buffett...oh, it's only 82, my fault) seems to understand some things. "We tend to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." Too bad the old geezer never learned the definition of money. It seems Ben Graham should have known that money also needs to retain its purchasing power...

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:01pm

Armstrong piece

Lot of typo's and poor grammar but well worth a read.

Dags might like it.


clueless one
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:02pm

I dunno guys...

where we are on the silver chart...looks like a simple pullback to support. If you link the 4/2011 and 2/2012 highs, we broke it...and are now testing support.

I still stand by TA...and TF..

Sometimes, ya gotta just watch the trends. Remember, everyone in this market watches trends...too.

**EDIT** Another thing that cracks me up, is Netdania. Look at the Daily, and put up a volume chart. Amazingly, volume is dismal throughout that last dip, and even through today. Looks nothing like the volume prior to the last $26 touch. Now, go to out the OBV along with the Daily Silver... the open interest is rising as well.

S Roche
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:02pm


Is now testing either side of the 200 day moving average...$30.30, which is also the far side of the long term down-trend line.

A bounce off here would be very bullish, with the obvious corollary.

Tom Steele
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:03pm


I think if you believe in the long term prospects of silver, this dip should be considered a great, perhaps final, opportunity to acquire silver in quantity at a low price. Perhaps the declarations that this was the break through and the start of the silver bull charge, but the only people who should be doom and gloom right now are the ones who are overleveraged in SLV long.

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:03pm
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:04pm

@tobydaniel The boys at Jackson hole

Me too me ol mucker. Thought I had more time to get my shorts on but we never got much of a re-test of the days high which is what I was waiting for. Feck it.

It's a mugs game these days.

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:05pm

@TobyDaniel, I am confused

I am confused, you bought into the "suckers rally", but you have been saying for months that nothing would happen until after the election? Which is it? Or are you one of those people that buys the fucking rally no matter what?

silverwood Terabyte
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:14pm

I believe it is done with algorithm computer programs

"Some time ago I set up a set of charts that I can watch, all on one page. They are silver, gold, dollar, euro, crude, DOW and S&P. I have noticed for a long time that nearly always when we see one of those waterfall drops in silver, there are also corresponding movements in those other charts. Most especially the Dollar and Euro, but also crude, if not all of them. I've become very curious lately as to how they manage to get all of those corresponding moves to take place nearly in sync with each other. Any explanations?"

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:17pm

Why are the algos

going after silver (and palladium) specifically?

tobydaniel Colonel Angus
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:22pm

lol, no hysteria

As I mentioned in my second sentence, tomorrow will offer good deals on those who want to buy silver. I just hope people don't blow their wad of cash today. Also, if I had my head in the sand, I would not consider buying tomorrow. Yes, silver at these prices will be laughed at a couple years from now, but still, its almost certain that we will get annihilated tomorrow. History repeats itself over and over and over again. Im not about to rewrite history. So with that said, why not buy more for your money tomorrow instead of less for today? Opportunity cost anyone? I know at least some basic economic principles. However, I did not learn much from going to Point Loma Nazarene University. What a joke that education was. Not one mention of the Federal Reserve in 4 years of business school! lol.

On another note, I know I will be hated for saying this on this board but the cartels have close control of silver. If they did not, silver would be way the heck over 100 dollars an ounce. Want proof? Take a look at the basic supply and demand for silver. Unless we shoot to 100 dollars an ounce, they still have almost full control. Im not buying Bill Murphy's statements. He seems like a great guy but Im not buying the hype. With less silver on earth than gold, how could silver trade so low with the cartel loosing control? NO WAY JOSE!

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:25pm


All at one time, in different segments of the market? Including the Euro?

With all respect, in my opinion that's a bit much to believe.

Gold Buffalo
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:30pm

Bill Gross on QE3

Gross: Today’s core inflation # of 1.6% YOY is another justification for QE3. #Bernanke stresses dual mandate and 2% target rate.
8/30/12 11:56 AM
tobydaniel ag1969
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:36pm

To be honest

Its because Im human. Heck, I want this rally more than anyone else on this board. I saw the mainstream news bashing silver and that got me excited thinking that they were in trouble. I am torn though. The mere fact that there is more gold than there is silver that has been mined keeps haunting me because of the fact of supply and demand. I cant make up my mind on that issue alone. On one hand, I see the price go up while the news is bashing silver which is positive in my mind but then the whole supply and demand issue comes up and makes me realize that this is probably a suckers rally like the may smack down last year and the one in February of this year and so on. Max Keiser was on last year saying we were winning against JPM and were loosing control of silver. Um, nope! Until it actually happens and we EXPLODE up to 100 bucks and way beyond, I have trouble believing these rallies. Charts are garbage too. The reason? Because there is more gold in the world than silver!!!! Oversold overbought... who cares? Supply and demand alone should shoot this thing past the price of gold. It all comes back to supply and demand. Thats it.

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:37pm

God bless the telemprompter

It's all scripted folks, not that many of you already aren't aware.

See 1:50-2:10 for the vote results. Boehner reading from the playbook (teleprompter) to fulfill his honorable role as official speaker of the teleprompter...

The real question is why don't we just replace politicians with talking computers?

The Republicans' 2012 Teleprompted Convention Part 2

The Political Machine triumphs because it is a united minority acting against a divided majority." - Will Durant

Nigel Black
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:40pm

gotta love CNBS

They are now stating that China (not Wall St.) caused the 2008 crash:

Gotta love propaganda, oops, I mean the MSM.

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:42pm

Try not to go broke everybody

So many wrong opinions about the metals above, tempted as I am to act like a school teacher and correct each, ill only address a couple of points.

1) Silver is rolling over after the September options expiration earlier this week, with this the large shorts will roll over their shorts first; into December causing price to fall further as they are "double short"; this action aims to capture some new dumb money long stops which they cover into and then cover further into momentum types that sell the lows. They complete this process almost every month and the result is they scalp out a few cents on their short positions.

2)Ill also address price forecast's as many have felt fit to give some targets above, as to where and how far the metal will fall or rise tomorrow, these are all guesses and none of you know, you should be mindful of the fact that J.P Morgan increased their short positions significantly when price was still @ $29.30 and one imagines on the subsequent run up nearly $2 dollars higher they shorted more. Why did they do this? Only two possible reasons,

Firstly they are confident they can cause spec longs to capitulate on any No QE3 news. Or alternatively they have no choice but to add shorts to cap price, because had they instead bought as well or done nothing there wasn't enough "free market offers" to meet increasing demand on the bid this appears to be true as the specs were record short in the high $20s and thus were unlikely to keep adding fresh shorts as they became further underwater.

Always remember that if they see an opportunity to game price and cover some or all of these new short additions profitably they will and as for every long there is a short it will take longs to capitulate from this recent run up or new money to be convinced to go short again, thus you are looking for either "technical damage" to induce new shorting or take out long stops below a line considered by many to be support.

Good luck and try not to go broke


Aug 30, 2012 - 1:43pm


Not only supply and demand, but also how much freakin money has been printed since 1980.

Aug 30, 2012 - 1:50pm

Cramer on Gold

How Cramer's Playing Gold

Every investor should own some gold, Jim Cramer said Wednesday.


benque Hawk
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:55pm


OK, I'm tryin not to go broke, but it isn't workin out too well...LOL

Regarding the Sept. short rollovers...I have heard the action on these days after contract expiry explained as addition of shorts, to convince holders of in the money long positions to settle for fiat, with or without premium. I had not heard of rolling over short positions, which I assume must be in the money short positions only. Very interesting, but wouldn't expiring out of the money short positions offset the "additional" temporary shorts? Especially after a price increase into expiry?

Can you expand upon your description given above? I find this most interesting, and would like very much to understand it better.

Thanks in advance!!

Loud Noises FortyTwoIsTheAnswer
Aug 30, 2012 - 1:59pm

On Cramer

I used to worry when I would see Cramer or some other MSM source advocating gold. But as long as I keep seeing them primarily recommend GLD, I'm not worried. GLD and gold in hand are not the same. My interest will perk when they all recommend bullion dealers and argue over premiums on CNBC.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories