One More Day

369
Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - 10:28am

Well, it's Thursday. This can only mean two things: 1) Just one more day until The JacksonHoleDown and 2) College football season begins tonight!

For all intents and purposes, here's the only thing that seems to matter right now:

8/31/12 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernank
Monetary Policy Since the Crisis
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
10 a.m. EDT

I suppose I could wax philosophic and even poetic about momo algos and Cartel capping but what would be the point? For today, I'm confident that we will simply trade back and forth between 30.60 and 30.80 in silver and 1660 and 1670 in gold. <yawn>

Look, I don't have a crystal ball for Fed-speak. The only person who knows what The Bernank will mutter tomorrow is The Bernank, himself. (Well, and maybe his butt-boy, Hilsenrath.) However, I can tell you this:

  • The fundamentals for the metals are overwhelmingly positive
  • The charts look poised for another leg higher

Might I be wrong? Of course. However, I'm confident that any Cartel-inspired Fed gaming tomorrow will be met with considerable bids for physical metal at discounted prices. This unceasing physical demand will continue to provide a floor for paper price and, consequently, any dip tomorrow must be bought.

That said, they may not be a dip to buy. Look at these charts. First, here are the daily charts showing that, after the runup last week, prices are simply consolidating in the zone where you would expect them to:

But now look at these 4-hour charts that include the 4-hour Relative Strength Indices. Remember, RSI is simply a measurement that allows you to assess the degree to which a market may be "overbought" or "oversold", in the short-term. The sideways action this week, though enfeebling and frustrating, allowed us the time to work off some RSIs that had worked well into the short-term overbought area. Note that, on the charts below, the RSIs have now retrenched back to the levels last seen before the big blastoff two weeks ago. This is a very positive sign that the markets are poised to move higher again and I would expect that move to begin very soon.

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  369 Comments

Lapp Nils
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:31am

First

First from Sweden!!

sevin
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:31am

College Football

The countdown has begun!

Oh yeah. and First

SIlverbee
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:32am

could I be thurd?

Or maybe I am trumped.

Dobocop
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:34am

Someone has to be Second ;-)

Waited long enough Edit. Apparently just a bit to long, had to login and remember password first.

SilverTree
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:37am
TitanAe
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:38am

No Way !!

Will Obama allow QE3 before the election !

Be Prepared
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:39am

My Horizon is not this Summer....

As many have said, Turd has consistently shown himself to be a man of integrity and genuinely tries to present and share his thoughts and ideas for the benefit of us all. This statement has nothing to do with being a fan or not.... or a Turdite or not.... it has everything to do with appreciating the efforts of a man trying to bring a community together for the betterment of us all. I certainly believe he has achieved that hands down with our help and support. I think it's fine to question and have doubts, but we need to try to remember that we need to engage each other with respect and, certainly, our host deserves that and more. The world is crappy enough and it will unravel in do time, so we can try to provide a respite here for each other... here in Turdville... so that we can learn, explore and share with each other in a way that focuses on building each other...

My time horizon for what I'm doing has nothing to do with this summer because my own convictions and beliefs no longer place a fiat value on PMs. I still check the price, but it's more of a barometer than a valuation. It's important to focus on working your plan and try not to take the world so seriously.... it will get crazy enough without us looking to push it down the rabbit hole any faster.

Thanks, Turd, for making Turdville possible... :-)

repost... didn't see the new thread...

Colonel Angus
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:40am

For the Bernank

"The plumber is clearly smarter than the Ben Bernank"

I love me some cartoon bears making fun of the Fed. Doesn't everybody? Maybe they can give the speech tomorrow. It would probably make a whole helluva lot more sense.

Quantitative Easing Explained
banman17
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:41am

Morgan Stanley reported on by Jim Willie

Not sure if many of you saw this on Harvey Organ's site last night:

And Jim Willie on the troubles at Morgan Stanley as he talks to Bill Murphy:
JIM WILLIE…

THE M.S. SHOCK WAVES ARE BEING HEARD FROM INTERNAL WALL STREET SOURCES
my inside guy, the friend of a MS fund manager appears to be growing in validity and intensity
Morgan Stanley is the next failure
Rick Wiles of TruNews is a Hat Trick Letter subscriber and sharp fellow
he has his own contacts spread out over the financial community
Morgan Stanley is going to the slaughterhouse, not the altar
the part these guys miss is that MS has perhaps a few hundred thousand stock brokerage accounts
MS merged with Dean Witter and Smith Barney to become the premier stock house
I am guessing that MS has 200k stock accounts, maybe 300k or more
THE MORGAN STANLEY FAILURE MIGHT BE THE FIRST THEFT OF STOCK ACCOUNTS
THE JUMP MIGHT OCCUR FROM FUTURES BROKERAGE TO STOCK BROKERAGE
MFGLOBAL ==>> PFG-BEST ==>> MORGAN STANLEY
imagine the hue and cry from the ignorant sheeple masses who call us conspiracy nutballs
when their stock accounts and IRAs vaporize in re-hypothecation made legal
feel free to post this, Bill
you probably have your own added info
just my 8 cents, a little more than 2
/ jim

Ferd Torgerson
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:42am

Turd Only Needs to Change One Thing - reposted from last thread

I gladly signed up for TFMR the first day it became official last June (couldn't figure out how to log on to the old blog site). Since then, I've read Turd's offerings and Fed the Turd when I could.

I have never expected perfection from Turd in his projections. He offers us his highly-educated guesses as to what's in the future and we can choose to believe or disbelieve. I've never thought of Turd as a genius when his predictions held true or as a charlatan when they missed the mark. We all come here for just another source of input in deciding what to make of this crazy situation we find ourselves in.

To expect Turd to reveal his sources is asking that he compromise his future ability to offer his insights - whatever value we might put on them. I'm convinced by all I read here and elsewhere that PM's are going higher. How much higher and in what timeframe no one knows.

The only thing I'd do differently, were I Turd, would be to hire a Special Duty Moderator to come in and consult with posters who make unreasonable demands.

I understand this guy may be looking for a new gig.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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