Still Waiting

Wed, Aug 29, 2012 - 3:06pm

To help keep you awake, I was able to find a few things for you to look at.

If looking for an insomnia cure, you're not going to find it in these charts. The only one worth noting is the crude chart where dips to $95 are being bought and the situation in Syria is looking increasingly tenuous.

Just a few minutes ago, ZH linked an article that discusses "the gold standard debate" in some very nice detail. You should take the time to read it:

I was/am perplexed by the latest open interest data. I summarized my confusion with this comment from the previous thread, copied below for your convenience:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 29, 2012 - 1:30pm.
Totally F'd up OI
Seriously. Makes absolutely no sense.
Yesterday, gold fell $6. Total gold OI was UP 10000 contracts with 6000 being added to the Oct12. The Oct12 is a very light delivery month and it expires in four weeks. Regardless, Oct12 OI rose from 28,215 to 34,503. I've been tracking the Oct12 OI since 8/1 and it has never been over 30,000 and yesterday it surges to 34,503?!? Additionally, total gold OI has now risen by over 41,000 contracts (10%+) in just the past seven sessions and is now at its highest level since 7/19.
For the CoT week, the price of gold rose by $27 and the total gold OI rose by 28,000 contracts.
And get this for silver: Total silver OI fell by 5,300 as most exiting the Sep12 did not immediately roll to the Dec12. OK, fine. Whatever. But while gold OI is surging, silver is falling. In fact, yesterday's OI is the lowest it has been since the end of July and, over the same seven sessions where gold OI has risen by 41,000 contracts, silver OI has fallen 4,000.
For the CoT week, the price of silver rose by $1.45 and the total silver OI fell by 6,000 contracts.

And our pal, The Golden Jackass, has just released his latest public commentary. Below is a link to the full text and a few choice excerpts. Jim and I hope to record another podcast soon so I thought you might like to get caught up with all the latest jackassedness.

The insider conversation, often called chatter when it becomes deafening in tone, is that Morgan Stanley faces imminent failure and ruin. Almost two weeks ago, the Jackass provided a tip to Bill Murphy of GATA to post on his popular LeMetropole Cafe that Morgan Stanley fund managers and high ranking employees were preparing for the firm's implosion. A subscriber to the Hat Trick Letter has a good friend whose father works as a fund manager and provided the story. It was not detailed, and bore no follow-up after my request. The older employees are selling all of their stock, some legacy stock from one or two decades ago. Many workers are making contingency plans for their next positions in another firm. When Lehman Brothers was killed, thousands of employees had to find new jobs, some without success. In the last week, the shock waves are being heard from internal Wall Street sources in an unequivocal manner. The implosion is in progress, like the collapse of several platforms and structural cables. The inside is caving in, and the ranking members recognize it, even talk about it openly. Much discussion swirls about a transition to antiquated software that is greatly disturbing the trading desks, causing tremendous problems at precisely the wrong time. A redux of the Knight disaster could be in progress. The part that many analysts might miss is that Morgan Stanley has perhaps over 300 thousand private stock brokerage accounts, with over 17,500 brokers. In the past two decades, MS merged with Dean Witter and Smith Barney to become the premier stock house with the most private accounts of any US-based stock brokerage firm. The Morgan Stanley failure might feature the first theft of private stock accounts. The critical jump might occur in account thefts from futures brokerage to stock brokerage, which began in November 2011 with MFGlobal, then appeared in July with Peregrine Financial Group (PFG-Best). All private accounts from MFG and PFG have been pilfered, with a blessing of the theft by the courts, seen in the Sentinel Mgmt Group ruling. The federal Appellate court's August ruling sets precedent for future private segregated account thefts, which were once considered sacred and untouchable. No more in the United States, not in the unfolding of criminality that stretches from USGovt offices to top corporate offices, with blessings sprinkled by the courts. The jump would be a major extension of the Fascist Business Model that nobody talks about. The major financial firms can rely upon this appellate court ruling as precedent, so as to protect their legal right to re-hypothecate client funds in their high risk leveraged positions and loans. It sure would be nice to use my neighbor's house and car to firm up my casino weekends. Stay tuned to the ongoing Morgan Stanley implosion, which could force the vanishing act of 50 to 100 thousand private stock accounts. The firm is the largest stock brokerage firm in the land. The dreadful impact will be nasty and might awaken the US masses. MFGlobal and PFG-Best surely did not.


A strongly held Jackass belief goes contrary to many simplistic viewpoints by some smart people within the gold camp. My source has taught me well, but my comprehension is surely lacking in spots. Let it be known that many smart people do not comprehend this phenomenon. A few key colleagues have stated that the big Western banks could be fixed overnight by grand cash dispensation on a grand scale from the Printing Pre$$ by the USFed and Euro Central Bank. Not so, emphatically not so! The big broken banks of the US, London, and Europe cannot be fixed by printed money. They have vast and complex broken paper asset structural problems that cannot be repaired. It is like a poorly designed car with badly calibrated cylinder strokes, misaligned transmission drive shaft, an inadequate cooling system, and poorly designed torsion bars going into the shop. The best mechanics could not repair it, as they would suggest scrapping the entire mess. Such are the big banks. They possess wrong sided positions that have started a chain reaction of disasters. Their positions constantly trigger margin calls. Cash cannot fix their predicaments. Their margin credit extension is abnormal, outside the usual channels. They are stuck, unable to comply with arranged contracts from years ago under different rules. Their lattice work is broken and not repairable, not with cash.
The Eastern Coalition is busily applying the screws, confronting the deeply decayed margin inadequacy, and forcing relinquishment of gold bullion. The loss of gold loudly signifies that gold is money, and cash is not. The big banks have broken pieces that invite opponent attacks, like the JPMorgan position with sovereign bonds and their complex USTBond structure defending the artificial 0% rate by the Interest Rate Swaps. The big banks also have major unresolvable problems with allocated gold taken, that the owners want back, including extremely powerful people.
Put the two extreme extraordinary problems together and one can conclude that gold from Allocated Accounts was improperly used as collateral on leveraged trades gone bad!! They face margin calls that are satisfied only by relinquishment of gold bullion. The smoking gun will slowly come into view to launch a new banker scandal. The scandal over Allocated Gold accounts will eclipse the MFGlobal case, and lead to the Gold price rising over $5000 per ounce. Over 40 thousand metric tons of gold have been improperly used, much in this manner, laced throughout the banking structures. No hyperbole here.
Printed money cannot and will not fix any of such problems. The big banks are ruined and realize finally they are lined up for a slaughterhouse. Their only remaining option is to cut deals with the new masters and their sheriff. In time they will not be able to locate sufficient volumes of gold bullion to make the margin calls go away. Since February 29th, they have forfeited over 6000 metric tons of gold. Eventually they will run out of gold from Swiss castles and Roman catacombs. Then the game is over and a new dangerous chapter begins.


Gold & Silver are awakening from a deep sleep after a year-long price consolidation. While the physical story leans toward growing demand and declining supply, all bullish for the precious metals prices, the paper story continues to reek of strongarms, naked shorting, propaganda, and other devious devices. Prepare for a grand divergence between the physical and paper Gold price, as described and warned in this newsletter for many months. Rumblings continue about JPMorgan being in far more trouble than simply CFTC position limits. They struggle under the gradual breakdown of their derivative machinery that extends far beyond the USTreasury Bond complex, to the currencies and gold market. Renewed hope from August has come for a resurgent price as seasonal factors join with other conditions whereby the bank cartel has weaker hands. Recall the gold cartel has been forced to relinquish over 6000 metric tons in the last six months. The real battleground is with the Gold price in Euro terms, which is pushing for a breakout. That makes sense, since the obvious breakdown is of the European sovereign bonds, the Euro currency, the European big banks, and the Euro Central Bank monetary policy. Notice how the Crude Oil price reveals significant hedging against the USDollar, stubbornly near the $100 per barrel mark despite a fierce global recession. The high cost structure will be maintained, with little relief from relaxation. Recovery will remain an illusion. The Eastern Coalition has not gone away. They still pursue Gold. Perhaps their agents in acquisition are on European holiday. Soon it is back to the desks at work. Expect a price move toward $1800 very soon. Expect a Silver price move also, as it more clearly has broken out from the year-long consolidation, back over $30/oz. Moves in the two metals could come fast and furious. The Eastern world has consistently been big buyers, but now the Western world is seeking safe haven from the ruin in banks and bonds.

Have a great evening and overnight.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 29, 2012 - 3:07pm


Top 50!

Aug 29, 2012 - 3:17pm



Trailer Park Boys - Best Of BAAAM!
Aug 29, 2012 - 3:28pm

Hat Trick

A bumper sticker I saw the other day:

I'll keep my guns, gold and freedom. You can keep the 'change'.

Edit: almost, but fourth.

Aug 29, 2012 - 3:28pm


Copied from previous thread since new thread came on immediately.

I have been in PMs for a long haul now. I have learned quite a bit or two by following these manipulated markets on a daily basis amid the MSM bullshit and want to share my opinions with you. I am sure some of you may have the same views and have mentioned it here and there.

Anyone who comes up with a prediction of a number where PMs are headed to, whether high or low is just pulling those guesses out of their collective asses. All these KWN prognosticators have been proven wrong over and over again.

All of this anticipated big rises in Gold and silver markets is NOT going to be based on charts, whether short term or long, OI reports, delayed COT reports, Indian gold buying, monthly PM trends, rumors of what Bermonkey says about QE or QE itself, European troubles, bank solvency issues, interest rates, fear of global collapse and more. While they may move prices a bit, they are then set up for a smackdown by the EE later. These are just factors the EE uses to create volatility so they can make more.

That is exactly how the Cartels make their dough. Because they have the power to influence the directions of the markets with their unlimited contracts on hand, what primarily decides the short term direction of PM’s is how much $$$ these Cartels scumbags can make going in the opposite directions of commercials and speculators. This shenanigan has been going on for decades and they will keep this ponzi scheme up for as long as they can.

What about China banks and government buying and cornering the markets to support their future value of their yuan? Do you think that Chinese govt. is acting independently of TPTB? Remember, China and its new found wealth would not be where they are today if they didn’t get the help from TPTB. Almost every crap in the world today is from China and that is by design. The Western world is being stripped of its wealth and moved to the East and that too is totally engineered. Only when the TPTB is ready will they allow inevitable gold standard that China wants in its yuan. One of the agendas of TPTB is to balance the income level around the world so the NWO can be ushered in with the least amount of resistance.

There is but one factor that they can’t control and that is supply esp in regards to silver. With its many industrials uses, silver supplies are dwindling down at faster rate than gold. The suppression of silver prices has accelerated the process more so. Unless they are able to find a substitute for silver, this trend is going to continue. I enjoy reading SRSrocco articles on this subject and have learned lots from it. (Please keep them coming SRS!)

When will that day come when it is realized by the markets that the supply of silver is not going to be met by the demand? When will demand of silver force silver prices to go up no matter what the Cartels do? Those are the key questions. That is when I strongly believe silver price will shoot to the moon. It will be very sudden. These current 50cs, one dollar fluctuating moves are just noises at the moment. I also believe that it will be silver that wake up its big brother, gold. This is why silver prices is heavily suppressed, more than any other commodities.

Having said all these, I suggest everyone to remain patient. The majority of my portfolio is in PMs and PM stocks. I write this so I can remind myself to do the same as I am guilty of expecting results immediately. This event may be soon but more likely a will take a few years to unfold.

At the meantime, keep stacking!

Silver Alert
Aug 29, 2012 - 3:30pm


Thurd. Now all I need is a silver posting and I can retire.

Aug 29, 2012 - 3:51pm

top 10

oh yeah!! Good day to stack... smiley

Thanks Turd

Aug 29, 2012 - 3:53pm

16 trading days till the end of summer

PM's have hit the 1 year descending pennant lines and stopped.

If Bernanke says nothing (high probability), everything is going to go down!

Probability is for an summer implosion now, to the down side unfortunatley!

The only thing I see that allows Turdtradamus quatrain to become true is QE3 announced a few days before end of summer (probability low)!

Anybody see anything different? And why?

Aug 29, 2012 - 3:58pm


"Low face value of PM coins"

"This is so as to facilitate tax avoidance scams for those in the know, no?"

Wow. That makes SUCH a lot of sense. I have a lot of thoughts about this in my head right now and am trying to sort them out in some way as to make sense before I post them up, but this is an amazing observation - and I'm sure it holds water.

A million hat-tips to you sir!

(re-posted from the bottom of the last thread as I didn't see this one go up, innit)

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:04pm


I sort of like that jackass guy ... smiley

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:09pm

I'll take a stab at this

I see everything differently because I know exactly why I have been, and continue to be, forecasting an extreme price explosion.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:09pm

Morgan Stanley

"The part that many analysts might miss is that Morgan Stanley has perhaps over 300 thousand private stock brokerage accounts"

I don't know Mr. T, Morgan Stanley has closer to 15 million brokerage accounts than 300 thousand. Seems like a really big miss for someone in the know on something.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:12pm

Look, here's the thing

I am 100% confident that the metals, particularly silver, are about to undergo a major restructuring. When I predicted that this would happen during the summer (6/21 - 9/21), I was confident in my timetable. Items out of my control have slowed the overall process a little but, fundamentally, everything is on track.

I tell you this so that you, the Turdite, will use this time to stack and accumulate. If choose not to because you simply believe that I'm some sort of grandstanding charlatan, knock yourself out. I seriously could not care less whether or not you believe me. 

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:14pm

Hell, I don't know

Do they have 15,000,000 accounts? Is this public info? Perhaps Jim is guessing at the number of households with accounts?

I'll ask him.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:15pm


I guess you just can't tell us exactly why you're 100% confident? You just can't divulge why you know this, correct?

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:20pm

Forecast Friday - Rain in the Pacific Northwest

Looks like the forecast is pretty gloomy for Friday up here in the, currently, sunny Pac NW. Seems as though most are calling for falling PM prices. Normally I would complain about the overcast, the slippery roads, the all-consuming depressing atmosphere but not today, and not Friday.

If the forecast comes to fruition I will be out the door ready to scoop up the sub-$20 silver on the street. I won't even bring a slicker or umbrella. I might even run out in my skivvies armed only with wads of green paper.

This is the first time in my life here in the PNW that I am not wary of a downpour. Bring it on.


Be Prepared
Aug 29, 2012 - 4:25pm

Make New Friends and Keep the Old...

One is Silver and the Other Gold!

A great theme for our Turdville Community! :-)

Make New Friends
S Roche
Aug 29, 2012 - 4:26pm

Morgan Stanley

"Morgan Stanley Smith Barney is the world’s largest brokerage by number of financial advisers, with 16,934 as of June 30".

Grigeo S Roche
Aug 29, 2012 - 4:36pm

Morgan Stanley

Mr. T, they picked up about 7,000,000 accounts just in the Smith Barney merger. Hell, I don't know either, but this better not be true, that is for certain.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:42pm


If it's not Morgan Stanley annihilation, or rehypothecated gold (powerful people's gold) being bought back before bankers have hot-tub accident, then it must be JPMorgan-related, since you are intent that silver is the big one . . . and JPM is the big silver short. Am I warm?

Edit: by the way, I do believe you.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:46pm

Meegorengi:  That is about

Meegorengi: That is about the most intelligent post I have read on this board. Congrats.

Grigeo TF
Aug 29, 2012 - 4:52pm

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley credit default swap spreads are currently 317bps (compared to Citi of 218 bps)

Compare that to MS credit default swap spreads of 603bps on October 4, 2011.

October 4, 2011

"Morgan Stanley (MS) credit default swaps continued to soar today, despite an attempt by CEO James Gorman to push back against the chatter about the company’s exposure to bad European debt. CDS spreads jumped to 603 today from just 421 a week ago and 584 yesterday, as investors were forced to pay more for protection against a possible default, according to data from Markit."

It certainly would be wise to watch the credit default swap spreads of any institution that had custody of your assets. At this point, I don't believe it (imminent MS implosion). His (JW's) source would have to know something that the entire financial world was unaware of.

Aug 29, 2012 - 4:52pm

Direct Registration System

Anybody know how to get a list of DRS eligible ETFs? DRS website is absolutely incomprehensible. I can't find DRS info on brokerage websites either, except for fees associated with DRS requests. The fact that a list is so hard to come by makes me think DRS is probably what I should be doing.

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:06pm

honing in on the tell . . .

These words from Jim Willie look prophetic:

"Prepare for a grand divergence between the physical and paper Gold price, as described and warned in this newsletter for many months. Rumblings continue about JPMorgan being in far more trouble than simply CFTC position limits. They struggle under the gradual breakdown of their derivative machinery that extends far beyond the USTreasury Bond complex, to the currencies and gold market."

Divergence meaning paper prices approaching zero, and physical moonshot?


Willie also warned that Duetsche Bank would be rubble as a result of a flamed-out Morgan Stanley. And, DB has been the big gold short. All coming together?

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:11pm

HEH summer

a month or two back, I was actually thinking of some PM divestment, because I felt I had gone in too deep.

Since then, I have instead added to my positions.

For those of you um'ing and ah'ing over Turd's HEH summer forecast and how to play it, it is the context of the forecast rather than just the forecast itself, that is noteworthy, because there is a chorus of such calls, from different sources and perspectives, for a hot summer:

  1. The dollar TA analysis, a breakout down or up, was on the cards for gold & silver.
  2. The Eurogold rising wedge, which portends an explosive upside breakout.
  3. The Bill Murphy sources
  4. The Jim Willie sources
  5. COT analysis, as described by Gene Arensberg (who does not believe in manipulation) as being the most bullish set-up for years.
  6. (from memory) Ben Davies also forecasting a silver leg-up.
  7. A rising silver price that already factors in the recent FT leak that there will be no diagnosis of silver manipulation. 

So, though Turd's conviction by itself might not have comprised a scientific or objective basis for more stacking, the context of a greater chorus all saying the same thing, with different premises and sources, is another matter.

As it happens, I would imagine that Turd is party to some info gleaned from his sources in the bullion market. If this is the case, and based on who his sources most likely are, then there is no duplication with the above list, but instead, a further and separate confirmation of it.

ancientmoney Byzantium
Aug 29, 2012 - 5:14pm


Yes, you describe a perfect storm. But lots of storms have come and gone. My money is on some comeuppance due JPMorgan and their insanely huge short position in silver. 

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:17pm

lower PMs

draghi bails out of wyoming......reflex toward maybe no jackson asshole QE..........BLSBS jobs will not be good no matter how they can spin it........BB mentions a word with 'Q' in it next FED meeting sept 13....

summer metal explosion starts 9 days before summer ends.

at least one thing is right with the world.

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:25pm


That sounds like the voice of reason, thank you. This is going to be a slow burner. There will be plenty of spikes and troughs on the way, but the big one is still a long way off.

Would be great if the banking collapses change the picture soon, but I'm not betting on it. Summer will come and go. And perhaps much of the winter too before we really see some healthy gains. No matter. Be patient. Keep stacking.

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:31pm

@ Bollocks

Given that I am often told that I talk bollocks (a technical term here in Blighty), an endorsement from 'Bollocks' is noteworthy and somewhat apt. wink

But back to the scam: It would appear to be of specific, rather than general value. The question had been asked in other forums, with respect to declaration of currency/money/valuables when crossing borders, whether one could count on face value of coins, so as to avoid disclosure and stay beneath thresholds. I think that the consensus was 'No,' but I am pretty sure that there are other scams that can piggy back on this face value stuff.

The scams if they exist, were not written for the many but the few, and so we are left guessing as to what they are.

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:40pm


Indeed it is true, that with great dismay, we PM bugs have found that fundamentals just do not work in the PM market, as they do in say, Physics.

The PM markets it seems, ignore economic laws, legal due process, market protocols (position limits etc), and fundamentals of supply and demand. I am therefore fully sympathetic with your suspicions.

What we are presented with now though, in this most manipulated and political of markets, are seemingly insider tip offs.

It may be misinformation. It may be sincere but wrong. But nonetheless, it is a new kind of bullish signal. Time might be running out for the undecided, to make a move. 

And there is of course a wild card that towers above all others; WW3 is potentially brewing in the middle east, right now. The US is crossing lines that it was told not to cross, probing Chinese and Russian resolve. The warning shots will not come from a gun, but will nonetheless be designed to shock and startle Uncle Sam, and to make sure that Sam knows that Weng & Vladimir know where he is vulnerable. And this has to come; the West keeps pushing, and in the latest expression of 'F*ck You!', France is now eagerly seeking to recognise a new Syrian government. 

So my 2 cents, a clash between East & West is inevitable; round one will hopefully be the last, and it will be financial. I believe that a PM blast off is coming.

Aug 29, 2012 - 5:45pm
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