Keeping The Faith

243
Tue, Aug 28, 2012 - 11:22am

We've had a tremendous rally. We're due to consolidate. Can we extend higher?

It has been a busy morning so I'm sorry for the late start. I'll have to keep this post brief, too. But be confident and happy. We are winning and vindication is right around the corner.

It's Tuesday so you know what to expect. Right now, The Cartels are busily adjusting their public-facing positions in order to "paint" this week's CoT in whichever light they choose. With the likely addition of so many fresh shorts late last week, I was expecting a somewhat "Happy Tuesday" today as The Cartels cover a few of their tracks with buy orders. So far, this is exactly what we've seen.

Yesterday's Globex raid provided them a lower platform from which to launch today's buying program. Gold traded as low as $1659 overnight but I have a last of $1673. The Cartel will be careful not to cover too many more here as they risk tripping buy-stops above 1680. Therefore, I suspect that the current range will hold today. The Globex will likely see active Cartel selling again today as shorts are put back on post-survey. Let's hope the bottom of the range holds again. It likely will and we'll probably stay within this 1660-1680 range until The Bernank speaks on Friday. Only a fool would expect a repeat performance of JacksonHole2010 where The Bernank signaled the QE2 program which was to begin in November. He's held off everything all year, why would he change now? It would be logical to then expect a Cartel-inspired selloff post-JacksonHole. How deep and for how long are the two questions. But, who cares? Just btfd.

Silver seems a little tired after a 10% rally in eight days and some follow-on buying yesterday. However, support between 30.25 and 30.75 held overnight and I still think that 31.50-32.00 looks like a more logical staging zone for EE resistance. But you know what...it doesn't matter. Just keep buying it. Please don't use margin or anything with a tight time limit that might force you to take losses based upon shenanigans. Just keep buying the dips and taking delivery. If attempting to trade , do not over-extend yourself and be sure you allow for plenty of time. Historic shifts in market dynamics can sometimes take slightly longer to play out than anticipated and you do not want to be caught without your oars in the water.

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  243 Comments

ancientmoney
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:07pm

@wonderer

Last night you said:

"I agree with you. But, how will us newbies know when that is?

And, what if the fiat taxes are so high on income producing real estate, or the .gov exercises one of those "executive orders", and confiscates the produce or the real estate completely."

J.S. Kim has some good info, and I hope he's right!

https://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2012/08/the-top-3-rules-to-understand-about-gold-silver-price-behavior/

exiledbear
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:09pm

Not to say we're still in the woods

But the traditional cyclicality of gold will start to kick in soon too. All those Chinese and Indians will be buying gold for one reason or another or another or another. You know the drill, blah blah blah.

I shop at Wal-Mart now - I want all of those Chinese buying gold :)

Yeah, we might see corrections from here on out, but I think it's becoming obvious (we been out of it for a while now) that the sideways consolidation that's lasted almost an entire year is over.

I said it before, I'll say it again - hold on. Just hold on.

ClinkinKY
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:10pm
onealpha
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:15pm

ClinkinKY, that cartoon

ClinkinKY, that cartoon reminds me of the Land of The Lost video. Funny Stuff

Video unavailable
ggnewmex
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:30pm

silver premiums

Anyone else notice premuims rising?

when considering my monthly purchase, seems like in every place I look, silver premuims are higher than before.

Anyone else?

SilverTree
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:38pm

I'M IN.

I'M IN.

Istack
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:41pm
ReachWest
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:44pm

Buy Now - or - Wait?

enkidu wrote:
What do I do, buy a few silver coins now or wait until after the meeting?

​I don't think anyone know for sure what will take place post the next Fed party (Jackson Hole), but if it were me, I would consider the following:

​1) No announcement at JH - buy now, buy later, it's unlikely to make much difference since there seems to be a pretty good floor under the price right now (given the past few months of sideways grind). A small drop in price won't likely save you much.

​2) QE (in some format) is announced at JH - Buy now get more oz's for less - buy after get fewer oz's as the price blasts upward. A big price increase could result and you could be faced with acquiring a substantially smaller number of oz's for the same amount of fiat.

​If it were me - I would buy now. Regardless of JH - there seems to be a pretty strong general feeling from Turd and others in this PM sphere that prices are going much, much higher. But, that's just my personal un-informed opinion.

Gold Five
Aug 28, 2012 - 3:47pm

The other silvery stuff

What's up with platinum and palladium? I don't keep up with those metals, but I noticed both are way down today...

reefman
Aug 28, 2012 - 4:08pm

What's up with Platinum? It

What's up with Platinum? It was extremely overbought. It needs to come down, and as you will see today it did, touched the 200dma.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PLAT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07050365768

murphy reefman
Aug 28, 2012 - 4:35pm

Reefman

May have something to do with the miners protesting in the platinum mines. I believe some other miners like GFI were hit due to collateral damage. It's down about 8% from last week.


Aug 28, 2012 - 5:18pm

It's not just austerity that bites:

Japan cuts economic assessment as global slowdown bites

TOKYO | Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:04am EDT

(Reuters) - Japan's government cut its assessment for the export-reliant economy for the first time in nearly a year as slowing global growth weighed on exports, clouding recovery prospects and adding pressure on the central bank for further stimulus.

Deceleration in the United States and China, on top of Europe's debt crisis, caused the downgrade, the government said on Tuesday, warning that further global slowdown and sharp market swings posed risks to the world's third-largest economy.

.... https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-japan-economy-report-idUSB... Here a stimulus, there a stimulus, everywhere a stimulus ...

Aug 28, 2012 - 5:25pm

Oh dear, same trouble everywhere:

Brezhnev Bonds Haunt Putin As Investors Hunt $785 Billion

By Scott Rose - Aug 28, 2012 6:12 AM ET

Holders of Soviet bonds first sold in Communist leader Leonid Brezhnev’s final year are getting in France what they can’t get from President Vladimir Putin: money.

The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg orderedRussia last month to pay Yuriy Lobanov, a septuagenarian from the Ivanovo region near Moscow, 37,150 euros ($46,497) in compensation for the 1982 notes he held, or about 140 times the average monthly pension. Mariya Andreyeva, a 95-year-old survivor of the Nazi blockade of Leningrad, won a preliminary 4,300 euros on the bonds, which doubled as lottery tickets.

The securities are part of the 25 trillion rubles ($785 billion), equal to almost half of Russian economic output, the government says it still owes the public from lost Soviet savings. Putin is stalling, most recently signing an order in April to halt payments on the notes until at least 2015. Now, armed with court rulings, veteran speculators are joining pensioners in seeking to cash in.

“This all should have been settled back in the 1990s,” said Boris Kheyfets, a Soviet debt specialist at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics in Moscow. “How do you assume a debt that huge? It would collapse everything immediately.”

...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-27/brezhnev-bonds-haunt-putin-as-...

pbreed
Aug 28, 2012 - 5:26pm

Platinum down..

@Goldfive

Platinum is down because I bought some....


Aug 28, 2012 - 5:37pm

What to do, what to do

enkidu's dilemma with regard to Jackson hole is bugging me.

When exactly will they release the minutes or make the speech?

I get my summer back pay this Friday and am thinking about running up my credit line tonight and paying it off next Monday. Or I could use the cast to pay off a credit card I used to buy AG. I am leaning toward more AG and deal with the debt later.

dropout
Aug 28, 2012 - 5:38pm

What Difference?

The corporatist/politico elite's cannot allow the economic/political illusion to falter, even a little, to the bitter end. As the fraud begins to fade ever more, the elitist force intensifies, becoming almost rabid in it's deflection. Because the illusion has become the center of their being, a mythological justification for their existence. Their ideology has been a lie, they are not heroes and gods on earth, but monsters and criminals, and their life has been self-serving and meaningless, without significance and honor.

"It won't make a difference which political party gets the white house or control of congress in this election. It just doesn't matter any more and if you think it does, then you are sadly ignorant of the facts, hopelessly naive or tragically stupid." - Dave from Denver August 01, 2012

"If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." - Mark Twain

George knew the difference with his insightful mind;

George Carlin - Voting is meaningless
Istack
Aug 28, 2012 - 5:45pm

@dr j

i know the feeling. Feels like my opportunity to buy at these prices may be ending soon. I been loading up on some junk silver lately.

ancientmoney
Aug 28, 2012 - 5:57pm

@Turd

Arensberg's GGR from Sunday is pretty bullish. He says that once silver gets past $32.50 a $4 handle is likely soon thereafter. He hedges that with a warning about politics, tho. Posted at Kitco.

Kcap
Aug 28, 2012 - 6:05pm

A tidbit

JPM is trapped in their derivative scheme. Check.

The US Gov't is the client holding the massive short with JPM. Check.

At some point, Bear Stearns decided to go short, offset these with long metals derivatives and keep price steady with that short.

All the while, metals increased in price due to physical demand. The short, belonging to the US Gov't, and managed by Bear, went wrong affecting the derivatives in 2008. Bear got dropped. JPM is the new clown in town.

JPM can say "our client" because the US gov't technically is, HOWEVER, they are ONLY A CLIENT to support the derivative scam JPM is running.

So, when people defend manipulation and say its all part of the game....KCAP says BS. Manipulation can be used to smooth a market...thats one thing. Manipulation can also be used for malicious intent. And that's another thing. And that's the case here. The metals are controlled on their rise to protect the underlying derivative scheme, while the derivative "RE-SHUFFLING" takes place. This "prolongs" the scam/scheme and still allows for a slow rise in metals. And the US Gov't is complicit in the scam by maintaining the short and JPM maintains the position that the "client" is "stuck" in their position. BS. That's what they want you to think. The "client" can get out whenever they want. They don't ON PURPOSE. It continues the scam/scheme.

If any of the big gold/silver celebs who come here want to address this, I would be more than happy to entertain thoughts on this.

Kcap


Aug 28, 2012 - 6:37pm

tidbits

Kcap,

Your rationale is sensible. Yet a position in AG intended to cap the metals has never had the Asian buyers exploiting it as it does today. If I read the puzzle pieces correctly, it is physical demand that threatens them. otherwise the paper game could continue. I would argue that just because the US GOV is the client, that doesn't mean metals will stay contained. Are markets bigger than governments? Is the law of supply and demand stronger than the power of the big dog. We shall see. I argue that there is a fair chance that silver gets away from them. Jamie did not plan for the London Whale's trades to nosedive. AG broke out once before and JPM et al had to collude criminally to contain it. How many margin hikes will it take this time? How many more MFGlobals do they have which they can raid for physical. They are using up their bag of tricks. Their resources are limited, but demand is not. Unless they continue to buyout those standing for delivery with larger and larger premiums...

I am ever hopeful my stack will appreciate sooner rather than later. But keep the arguments going. I don't want to be caught unaware with my pants down buying $45 silver a week before a smackdown again!

reefman
Aug 28, 2012 - 6:41pm

It's like waiting for your

It's like waiting for your first baby to be born - is he is HE or a SHE?

Bollocks
Aug 28, 2012 - 6:52pm

Looks like Jamie Dimon...

Already got himself a new job!


¤
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:02pm

Ben: Man In The Box / Jackson Hole

Video unavailable
Alice In Chains - Down in a Hole (PCM Stereo)
Alice In Chains - Get Born Again (PCM Stereo)
pourty
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:10pm

re: Buy now or wait...

For what it's worth, every time I have gathered up all the funds that I couldn't really afford just yet and bought early, it's been a mistake. Trying to time the market like that is just like gambling, IMO.

I'm a firm believer that buying regularly regardless of price on a weekly or monthly basis will make you better off in the end.

Not that I practice what I preach... ;-)

Wizard
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:15pm

Hmm

Is 30.83 some kind of magic number for the Algos ?

Never Mind

Kcap
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:19pm

Dr. Jerome

I agree the physical demand will "eventually" topple the paper regime.

However, it is my opinion that the game will be "given up" intentionally before that ever happens. As strange as it sounds, I think ultimately they will maintain more control that way as opposed to a runaway market under which absolutely no control is at hand.

Kcap

pbreed
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:23pm

The election...

Ok, I believe that Romney Ryan can't really fix the core problem... I think that if they win the election

a lot of people will believe that they will fix the problem... anyone else worried about a big AU,AG beat down right after the election based on this we are saved sentiment?

tmosley
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:28pm

Well, no last second Ron Paul

Well, no last second Ron Paul miracle. That cements my plans--I will be leaving the country at my earliest convenience.

Gramp
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:36pm
WhyMeLord Raoul Dusentier
Aug 28, 2012 - 7:38pm

@Raoul

"All of the coins also are heavier than they should be some weigh 3.22g and some are as heavy as 31.40g. I measure the weight on different scales."

To accurately authenticate the coins you need a 720nm Red Laser and an Optics bench.

First place the coin before a prism in the Optics bench at exactly a 17.76 degree angle.

Make sure the bottom of the Walking Liberty skirt is visible to the Laser.

Locate the laser at least 3 right angles from the target and fire.

You should see a complete copy of the US Constitution projected bilaterally off the coin.

Note: This will not work if there is a HAARP incident in progress.

PS: Don't listen to me.

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