Keeping The Faith

Tue, Aug 28, 2012 - 11:22am

We've had a tremendous rally. We're due to consolidate. Can we extend higher?

It has been a busy morning so I'm sorry for the late start. I'll have to keep this post brief, too. But be confident and happy. We are winning and vindication is right around the corner.

It's Tuesday so you know what to expect. Right now, The Cartels are busily adjusting their public-facing positions in order to "paint" this week's CoT in whichever light they choose. With the likely addition of so many fresh shorts late last week, I was expecting a somewhat "Happy Tuesday" today as The Cartels cover a few of their tracks with buy orders. So far, this is exactly what we've seen.

Yesterday's Globex raid provided them a lower platform from which to launch today's buying program. Gold traded as low as $1659 overnight but I have a last of $1673. The Cartel will be careful not to cover too many more here as they risk tripping buy-stops above 1680. Therefore, I suspect that the current range will hold today. The Globex will likely see active Cartel selling again today as shorts are put back on post-survey. Let's hope the bottom of the range holds again. It likely will and we'll probably stay within this 1660-1680 range until The Bernank speaks on Friday. Only a fool would expect a repeat performance of JacksonHole2010 where The Bernank signaled the QE2 program which was to begin in November. He's held off everything all year, why would he change now? It would be logical to then expect a Cartel-inspired selloff post-JacksonHole. How deep and for how long are the two questions. But, who cares? Just btfd.

Silver seems a little tired after a 10% rally in eight days and some follow-on buying yesterday. However, support between 30.25 and 30.75 held overnight and I still think that 31.50-32.00 looks like a more logical staging zone for EE resistance. But you know doesn't matter. Just keep buying it. Please don't use margin or anything with a tight time limit that might force you to take losses based upon shenanigans. Just keep buying the dips and taking delivery. If attempting to trade , do not over-extend yourself and be sure you allow for plenty of time. Historic shifts in market dynamics can sometimes take slightly longer to play out than anticipated and you do not want to be caught without your oars in the water.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 28, 2012 - 11:25am

Faith Is Good

But lately very frustrating

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:27am


gee, second?

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:28am

2ND!! (No now 3rd oh still medalled)

Sorry have not read the post yet title looks go though yeah!! get in there.

Silver Alert
Aug 28, 2012 - 11:29am


is good. But I ended up with copper?

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:29am

My 200+ pounds of Ag is doing

My 200+ pounds of Ag is doing just fine.

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:29am

Thanks Turd

I appreciate your wisdom and guidance with these charts. Bernanke will disappoint, no doubt at J Hole.

The real drama is the presidential polling, the conventions, the probable fizzling of drama from Isaac, which then leads to a massive beatdown on Labor Day weekend.

I sure hope I am wrong, although, I could use the opportunity to stack.

Thanks again.

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:32am

weekly options

and I love to buy the weeklys on friday am before expiry--low premium and a huge delta.

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:35am

Great Advice!

Plain and simple, play like its your last hand!

Thanks Turd!

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:36am

A little more reading ...

Great work as always, Turd. Since this post was on the short side, here's some recommended reading: "Debt Destroys Everything" by Martin Armstrong. He'd be a great guest for a TFMR podcast, by the way!

Nick Elway
Aug 28, 2012 - 11:44am

Yamada on board for $5000 gold by 2018

August 27, 2012, at 4:11 pm by Jim Sinclair

Dear Jim,

A $5000 goal for the metal is her most bold forecast. Carries weight.

Harry Schultz

My Dear Friends,

Louise Yamada is an accepted amongst establishment commentators. It is nice to see her on the same page as we are.


Louise Yamada predicts $5200 gold by 2018
Aug 28, 2012 - 11:46am

"slightly longer to play out than anticipated"

Historic shifts in market dynamics can sometimes take slightly longer to play out than anticipated and you do not want to be caught without your oars in the water.

True, that! As someone who has just read Harry Browne's "How You Can Profit From The Coming Devaluation" (published 1970, predicted a collapse within "a few years"), I agree completely with your statement. The predictions in that book are just now playing out, as the initial problems of over-credit have been magnified and perverted far beyond even the most pessimistic predictions of that time. If it had all fallen in around 1974, that would have been bad enough, but when this bubble does finally pop, it's going to be devistating to most but incredible opportunity will exist for those who are prepared.

Aug 28, 2012 - 11:52am

For those feeling seasick from the price swings

For those feeling seasick from the price swings, here's a dose of tonic. Go have a read, and quit worrying.

Some things (like PMs, real estate, or the Luger collection in the article) have lasting value. Don't be tempted to swap them out for transient lifestyle consumables. You get to choose: are you the proverbial ant, or the grasshopper? Decide now. Winter is approaching.

thurd aye
Aug 28, 2012 - 11:53am
Short Stack
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:09pm


Awesome Bull Shark photo. That thing could scare the skin off of Jaws.

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:10pm

RE: My 200+ pounds of Ag is doing fine

With 200 lbs of silver, just think of all the things you could do with it. Oh I don’t know, say, make an anchor and tie it to a string on a boat.

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:12pm

JPM shorts


If JPM is trapped in their short position in silver, why do they from time to time buy more shorts? Does this not make their problem worse?



Aug 28, 2012 - 12:14pm

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits

Guess what the FED will do.... I know already... ;) LOL!

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead. Vizzini: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. Man in Black: You've made your decision then? Vizzini: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. Man in Black: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. Vizzini: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I? Man in Black: Australia. Vizzini: Yes, Australia. And you must have suspected I would have known the powder's origin, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. Man in Black: You're just stalling now. Vizzini: You'd like to think that, wouldn't you? You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you could've put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. Man in Black: You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work. Vizzini: IT HAS WORKED! YOU'VE GIVEN EVERYTHING AWAY! I KNOW WHERE THE POISON IS! Man in Black: Then make your choice. Vizzini: I will, and I choose - What in the world can that be? Man in Black: [Vizzini gestures up and away from the table. Roberts looks. Vizzini swaps the goblets] Man in Black: What? Where? I don't see anything. Vizzini: Well, I- I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. First, let's drink. Me from my glass, and you from yours. Man in Black, Vizzini: [Vizzini and the Man in Black drink] Man in Black: You guessed wrong. Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha... Vizzini: [Vizzini stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:18pm

Is this the extent of the August move we've been waiting for?

Is this the extent of the August move we've been waiting for and Turd's been forecasting? Is it time now to consolidate in a range for a couple of months or will the explosion continue?

Dagney Taggart
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:18pm

How convenient

New thread by Turd.

Came on to say now's a good time to retest the breakout 1630 and form the right shoulder on the pig.

Ned Braden theskier
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:21pm

@ theskier


We need to remember that in all likelihood, the short position is actually US Govt - ESF et. al.

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:22pm

No more rhymes now, I mean

No more rhymes now, I mean it.....

Dagney Taggart
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:24pm


JPM now has a vested interest in insuring the success of the next FF to be used to get let out of their naked death trap on the heads of the unborn taxpayers while the sheeple are running around crying and waving their arms at whatever "perceived threat of the week" is.

So long as the sheep remain such, JPM will be ok. I promise.

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:30pm

Salt water sharks v fresh water sharks

"Larry - loved yr story so thnx. But the mentioned freshwater fish at the mouth of the Creek - trout, bass - would surely have little to fear from sharks since sharks are saltwater fish. Not a fisherman so I hope I got that right?"

Paulindoon, no... not right but thanks for liking. Living right on the coast (Atlantic Ocean), I was referring to salt water fish (including spotted sea trout, spot tail bass (aka Reds) and sharks.

The only sharks I know of that frequent fresh water are those at GS and JPM, standing around the water cooler bragging about how many investors they’d robbed by naked shorting.

I happen to live in a quiet, peaceful, coastal drinking community that has a serious fishing problem :)

Raoul Dusentier
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:35pm

Fake silver eagles? Help me, please.

I recently bought some silver eagles from an online store. I have growing suspision that they might be fake.

They appear to be thinner that they should be 2.85mm instead of 2.98mm, but I am unsure exactly where on the coin I should measure the thickness.
All of the coins also are heavier than they should be some weigh 3.22g and some are as heavy as 31.40g. I measure the weight on different scales.

Could someone please help me out here and give me an opinion regarding these coins?

Here are some pictures of them (including their weight):

Small image:

High resolution image:

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:37pm

nice wedge from 9:57 - 10:28

nice wedge from 9:57 - 10:28 am this morning. It will resolve imminently (within 9 minutes)

Dagney Taggart
Aug 28, 2012 - 12:37pm


Do they ring?

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:38pm

And, in 1st place, California:

U.S. states' debt tops $4 trillion-report

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:09pm EDT

Aug 28 (Reuters) - America's 50 state governments owe $4.19 trillion, including outstanding bonds, unfunded pension commitments and budget gaps, according to a new report.

At $617.6 billion, California had by far the biggest total debt, more than twice the total of No. 2, New York, with $300.1 billion owed, according to State Budget Solutions, a research and non-partisan advocacy group.

Texas, with $287 billion owed, New Jersey, with $282.4 billion, and Illinois, with $271.1 billion, ranked next among states with the biggest total debt, according to State Budget Solutions. Vermont had the smallest debt load at $5.85 billion....

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:47pm

re Only a fool would expect a repeat performance

of Jackson Hole 2010.

Is this not perhaps just the kind of thing we should therefore expect? Like a Quebec driver not using a turn signal lest it should give away his intentions, the Bernanke attempts to move in unpredictable ways. In keeping with the shark theme, just when you think it is safe to go back in the water ... they do something only a fool would suspect. As cunning a plan as Baldrick ever came up with.

Aug 28, 2012 - 12:47pm

@Raoul Dusentier

Those differences are pretty normal in my experience, and although I don't stack ASE's, I have found this to be so with Philharmonics and Maples.

Aug 28, 2012 - 1:04pm

Looks like we broke out of

Looks like we broke out of the wedge to the up side, and entered a new wedge which resolves itself (drumroll) 13:28.... same as COMEX close. Coincidence? I think not!


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