Meandering Monday

Mon, Aug 27, 2012 - 11:16am

Well, the week has begun and, so far, it's unfolding about the way we expected.

On a day like today, where London is closed and the entire week last was UP, you'd normally expect some give back. So far, not so much. In fact, the silver market has traded almost exactly as anticipated. Volatility at the Globex open last night. A surge from Asia. A pushback from Europe. A continued rally in NY. We've broken $31 and are holding strongly, even in the face of falling crude and capped gold. This is very impressive and somewhat reassuring. Tomorrow will be the interesting test. With London back in, will silver surge higher or be pressed lower? Once NY opens, will silver rebound on a "Happy Tuesday" or will a mini-raid develop? For now, I expect continued strength as I see several areas of strong support on the chart and silver remains well above all of its moving averages.

Gold is hanging in there, too, but is being subjected to much more aggressive capping than silver. There can be no doubt that The Gold Cartel would prefer that gold stays below its Battle Royale line as well as the area around 1680. Just like 1635 last week, you can be certain that there are a plethora of buy-stops positioned above 1675-80 and The Cartel does not want to see them triggered. Will they succeed? Maybe for a few days this week but, ultimately, they will fail. Gold will then surge toward 1700 and, once it starts printing $17**, it will likely rally toward the next logical battle zone near 1720.

All of this is in the face of falling crude prices this morning. That crude is down should not come as a surprise to anyone here. I had told you that crude would trade to $98 last week and it did. I then suggested that a pullback would follow before a consolidation. The next move in crude will drive it to and through $100 and, from there, it will likely move rapidly toward $105. This is a very tradable move so be ready. Any dip to $94 and below would be a logical entry point and I'll be watching it closely.

Lastly, I'm sorry but I need to do this one more time because of the costs and effort needed for setup. As you know, it has been suggested that Andrew Maguire and I "team up" for an options trading service. The platform would be similar to Andy's current "DayTrades" service where trades are posted in realtime and the subscriber has the discretion to either follow along or not. Here are other random thoughts that I printed last week:

1. I'm quite uneasy at recommending options trading to anyone given the inherent risks involved and my oft-stated concerns for the viability of the current "system". After the MFG and PFG debacles, everyone should be wary of holding cash, or anything else for that matter, within the confines of a customer account. That said, I could be wrong. That Ann Barnhart gal could be wrong, too. Maybe MFG and PFG are simply one-offs and everything is fine. I recognize, though, that there are still literally thousands of people worldwide who are still actively trading. Therefore, I'm content to go forward but under the banner of "proceed at your own considerable risk".
2. I've been trading options for over 25 years now. In my "career", I've always been forced to enter The Den of Thieves armed with nothing but my own experience, wisdom and charts. To think that I could enter again but, this time, have the experience of Andrew Maguire to guide me?...well that is pretty compelling.
3. After 25 years, I do at least have some idea of what I'm doing. All trades established by Andy and I will only be placed if we are in agreement that the trade makes sense. This clearly doesn't guarantee success but I'd like to think it increases our chances a bit.
4. It's not going to be cheap but it shouldn't be. First of all, we don't want totally inexperienced traders taking a stab at it simply because the subscription is just $20/month. Additionally, at $250/month, the service would be a bargain. Subscribers would need to maintain an account balance of $15,000-25,000 so we're only talking about a 1-2% monthly vig.
5. For those that don't trade futures options but do trade equity options, we'll try to offer an alternative ETF option play whenever possible. For example, a Dec12 gold call trade might be matched with a DecGLD call.

Again, IF WE DO THIS, the fee will be $250/month. Why so expensive you ask? One, anything of value is not cheap AND two, we need to limit the amount of subscribers and a high cost helps with this. Much of the time, we'll be taking positions in options that don't have a huge amount of open interest. If, all of a sudden, we had 1000 people putting in orders for an option with only a few hundred in OI, it could immediately skew the entire dynamic of the trade. Therefore, it is preferable to have 100 subscribers rather than 1000.

So here's what I need from anyone who is seriously still interested. Please send me an email at:

turdistheman at gmail dot com

Nothing fancy, just say "yes, I'm interested" or something of that nature. If it looks like we're going to have 100 subscribers, then Paul and Andy will go ahead and set it up. Personally, I hope we can do this because, with more QE in the horizon and the other "fundamental changes" I'm expecting, I think our chances at success are pretty high. So, again, anyone who thinks they'd participate needs to send me an email at the address above. (This is, of course, non-binding. It's not like I'm going to beat you to death if you ultimately change your mind and decide not to join. It's just that taking the time to send an email gives us a much stronger indication of general interest.)

As I close, I see that price continues to hang in there at $1670 and $31. After the moves we had last week and with London closed, I'm relieved that things are going as well today as they are. Let's just get through this day and then see what tomorrow brings. With all the fresh shorting supplied by The Cartels last week, I'm expecting (hoping for) a somewhat happy Tuesday.

Have a great day and pray that Isaac continues as a tropical storm for as long as possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 27, 2012 - 11:17am



Money By Trading
Aug 27, 2012 - 11:18am

New Weekly Review

Focus on the US Dollar Index and gold:

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:23am

"Coffee" stains...

Yeah, right. We know how the cake is baked, my man.

thurd aye
Aug 27, 2012 - 11:26am


What I was going to say before my ungainly stumble to gain no medal was........I am putting Everyone on IU.I just read the red tops and Fox News from now on, and whatever Binky Ben has to say I will follow to the letter.

BTFD or not ,I am past caring you politicos will not listen.

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:31am

More coffee stains next time!

More coffee stains next time! Maxwell House? Folger's? Oh I see, JD is the Turd's choice of "coffee". Now THAT is Irishing up your coffee!

Since $1681 is one of Santa's Angels, I expect lots of activity around this level. Break and quick retest?

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:37am

Coffee stains...

I don't care who you are, now that's funny.

Rex Weyler
Aug 27, 2012 - 11:40am

The Silver Angels

Last summer, I wrote briefly about Jim Sinclair’s “Angel” numbers as a context for analyzing gold prices. Now might be a good time to consider the Silver Angels, as the metals appear to recover from the long attack, heading for the next “Battle Royale” at $36, as Sinclair, Mr. Ferguson, and others have suggested.

As with gold, the Silver Angel #s may be useful, but it helps to know the limitations of these benchmarks. The Angels, of course, are perfect squares: 25, 36, 49, 64 and so forth. Sinclair’s mentor Jesse Livermore introduced these numbers for stock analysis in The Wall Street Journal in 1923. How significant are they?

The point I made about gold, is even more significant with silver: The intervals between Angels (squares) are not equal as percentage changes. Furthermore, Silver Angel intervals are much larger than Gold Angel intervals, and the differences between them are greater. A leap of one Angel in the silver market is a much bigger deal than a one-Angel jump in gold.

The square of any whole number “n” is greater than the square of the previous whole number “n-1” by the formula: (2n)-1. This portion (2n-1) is the interval. Since the square of 5 = 25, you can find the square of 6 by using the formula: (2 x 6)-1=11. Then: 25+11 = 36. In the days before calculators and computers this often proved helpful. Who cares, now? But to an investor, it can help to know how these intervals change as the numbers change:

For example, let’s look at some approaching Gold Angels:

1600 to 1681: the interval is 81 or + 5.33 %

1681 to 1764: the interval is 83 or + 5.06 %

1764 to 1849: the interval is 85 or + 4.82 %

These intervals – differences – are magnified for the Silver Angels, because the #s are significantly lower. So:

25 to 36: the interval is 11 or + 44 %. Eight or nine-times larger interval growth than the approaching Gold Angels.

36 to 49: the interval is 13 or + 36 %. Notice that the decline in interval size is also much greater.

49 to 64: the interval is 15 or + 30.6 %

Let’s look at the Silver Angel history and speculate where this is going:

Silver Angels Go Riding

Angel-Two, 22 = $4 last appeared in November 2001, after a long plateau around $5. The Angel-Three, $9 appeared 50 months later in January 06. This is a huge interval: 125%. The actual doubling time from $4 to $8 was about 48 months, an approximate 17% annual growth rate. A nice run. Then it accelerated. 

Angel-Four, $16 appeared in January 08, a + 78% interval, over a 24 month span, doubling from $8 to $16 in 26 months, equal to a 32% annual growth rate. 

Angel-Five, $25, appeared in November 2010, a + 56.3% interval over 34 months. Silver doubled from $12.5 (April 09) to $25 in 19 months, a 43.9 % annual growth rate. When I look at the charts, I don’t see a particular battle around $25 at that time, although one could make the case that there was a battle around $16. In any case, as we may recall, Silver blew right through Angel-Six, $36, in 4 months (+ 75% annual rate) and then a month later almost kissed Angel, $49, before the big wack down, from which we now may be witnessing the resurrection. 

Down through Angel-Six and nearly reached Angel-Five, $25, three times between September 2011 and May 2012. So here, one could make a case that there was, indeed, a fight over this divine number. In any case, in one year, April 2011 to May 2012, Silver dropped from 49 to 26.70, a - 45.5 % assault on the metals. 

Presuming Metal Recovery

So, for a baseline, in keeping with the Angels, we could select the June-July 2012 lows of 26.70, and call this the realm of Angel-Five. Silver has now breached $30, and the next battle Royale might be at Angel-Six: $36. When? 

52 = $25: Baseline ($26.70, June 2012.

62 = $36: + 11 from 25 = + 44 %

72 = $49: + 13 from 36 = + 36 % (almost double from our baseline)

82 = $64: + 15 from 49 = + 30.6 % 

I find the Angels fascinating, but in rate-of-change questions, I like to think in units with a constant ratio: a doubling or any fixed percentage increase. I find doublings a good reference because they reveal immediately the long range trend slope. You likely know the “70” rule (69.3 actually, the natural log of 2, if you like precision) for converting doublings into percentage growth rate. This is quick and easy, because one can eyeball doublings off almost any chart and get an accurate periodic growth (or decline) rate: “70”/doubling-time = periodic % change rate. 

For example, one can look at the silver price since its $5-dollar days in 2003 to its $40 range in 2011, and see that it doubled 3-times in 90 months, so a fairly regular 30-month doubling time, ignoring all the noise in the market chart. You can easily divide 30 months (2.5 years) into “70” (69.3) and immediately see a roughly stable 27.7% annual rise for almost eight years. 

Thing is: The world isn’t linear, or fair. Markets aren’t linear or fair. They are manipulated. We know that the Princes of Babylon have wacked metals back, and may keep trying until they have to cover their shorts, so we have to take black arts and black swans into consideration. 

Given all this, I expect silver to sweep past the $36 Angel by early 2013 and move on to finish it’s affair with Angel-Seven, $49, in 2014, but that’s hardly radical. Silver could be $49 next week. And in a reasonably normal world, which doesn’t exist, I would expect Silver to visit Angel-Eight, $64, in 2015. Or sooner. Or not. 

We know that extreme events can trigger a state-shift, and we’d see $200 silver, $200 oil, and water riots within a year. And we know that promises and paper can obscure the truth. And finally, I presume we know that all fiats devalue to zero, so the metal prices will eventually become infinite in every currency. The question is when. When will the dollarites bail? When will Babylon fall? 

I am not an investment advisor or much of an investor. I’m a journalist, who writes a lot about commodities, economy, ecology, and politics. The challenge I see for the human economies is this: In the aggregate, we are in a state of habitat overshoot on a global scale. We are now witnessing peak everything: Peak energy, peak phosphorus, peak forestry, peak fish landings, peak gold production, and so forth. We’re halfway through the world’s forests in area and about 80% through the forests in terms of quality of standing timber. We’re about 80 percent through the major commercial fish species. We’ve mined about half the carbon and nutrients from the world’s soils. We’re losing 16-million hectares of forest each year and gaining 6-million hectares of desert. Do the math. The big resource bonanzas are over. There are no new continents to plunder or oceans to exploit. The only way for the super-elite to make a few quick billions appears to be running ponzi schemes, exploiting cheap labour, and floating paper promises to the wishful thinkers. Giant oil boom? Fantasy. The “oil booms” are stock plays, hyping the dregs of Earth’s once great hydrocarbon stores. High tech efficiencies? Delusional. Remember when computers were going to save paper? Never happened. Today we use 6-times the paper we used in 1960 before the computer revolution.

Energy drives all economies, and we’ve seen the peak. Peak energy per-capita occurred in 1979. For all practical purposes, we are now on the peak plateau. A flat economy now would look like good news. Germany and France are selling negative return bonds and investors are buying them! The global economy is already crashing, and has been doing so for decades. The economy appears as a slow-motion film of a limousine hitting a wall. The glass is now starting to fly through the front seat, the chauffeur is stamping on the brake, but the patron in the back hasn’t noticed yet. We are a civilization in decline. Gold and silver prices will continue to rise against all the fiat currencies. 

History shows us that civilizations don’t get smarter as they collapse, they get more desperate and crazier. I tell young people that the most valuable assets are: Being nice, arable land, and flowing water. After that: Useful tools and skills such as growing food and fixing things. After that, if you want to store some value: Physical gold and silver.

Rex Weyler writes the “Deep Green” column and appears on Energy Bulletin.


Aug 27, 2012 - 11:40am

Gives Me Pause...

A breather is good for this next up-leg in gold and silver. I've come to learn that over the past year and a half. As a newbie, however, I remember that breathers scared me. "Is it over?" "Are we going lower?" Maybe. But I've witnessed a few screamers up and then seen the opposite scream down. Any new advance in the paper price of gold and silver should/will include a pause or two. And that's healthy.

But if you hold the metal then truly this is all noise.


BagOfGold Pining 4 the Fjords
Aug 27, 2012 - 11:41am


I'm with you here!...Need a splash of Baileys with my coffee!...The "Bacon Indicator" is rising now...& expect it to surge as gold pushes through $1685!...Stay calm & alert!...Going off to chase those "elusive rainbows" Maravich is talking about!!!...

Chris Rea Looking For A Rainbow

Bag Of Gold

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:42am


"it is the SOCIOPATHS in power who set us against one another"

Absolutely right. And their favourite tool is patriotism.

Larry L
Aug 27, 2012 - 11:43am


From: S & A Resource Report
By: Matt Badiali

Why the Rare Silver Buy Signal Exists

This newsletter was written Aug 3rd.
The rare buy signal is produced by tracking the movements of the "smart money" in silver.

We use data from something called the "Commitment of Traders" report. This is a report compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC is the governing body of the futures industry. The futures market is a market where assets like commodities and currencies are freely traded.

Each week, this Commitment of Traders report shows the positions held by the "players" in any given commodity. It shows who is buying a given commodity, and who is selling it. It lets us track the flow of money.

One group of market participants is called "commercials." These are the folks who actually produce and consume a commodity. For example, commercials in the corn market include farmers and food producers. They enter the futures market to buy and sell corn. Commercials in the natural gas market include energy companies and utilities (who burn gas for fuel). Commercials are often called "hedgers" because they can "hedge" their exposure to a commodity by "locking in" prices for the future.

Another group of market participants is called "non-commercial" traders. These are the big speculators, like hedge funds. These participants are in the market simply to make money by betting on commodity price movements. These traders are tracked separately from commercials. The government likes to keep an eye on these "speculators."

When it comes to the silver market, you want to bet AGAINST speculators... and WITH the commercial hedgers. I like to think of the commercial hedgers as the "smart money," while the "non-commercial" group is full of traders who buy at big market tops and sell at big market bottoms.

The data show this is exactly the right strategy... one that could help us make a lot of money over the next year or two...

My colleague Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, who writes Stansberry & Associates' True Wealth Systems trading service, uses "sentiment indicators" – metrics that gauge how bullish or bearish investors are – as one of his many tools to assess market movement. He told me the key to using sentiment data is it's only useful at the extremes. When you see an extreme in sentiment, it usually results in a big trade. And right now... the sentiment against silver is at an extreme.

Before we get to the details of what's happening today... let's look at how this signal has worked before...

Since 2000, if you bought silver when the net futures positions of speculators hit less than 11,000 – meaning they were bearish – you never lost money. Not one time...

We hit that extreme 10 times in the last 13 years. Silver was in a bear market from 2000 to 2002, so the bottoms came more frequently (five times in two years), and they preceded smaller gains. But you still made money.

After 2002, silver entered a bull market. Including today... we've hit five major sentiment bottoms since then... and each has heralded a big gain...

Below is a chart that displays the past 10 years of silver prices (black line). The line beneath the price displays the positions held by the speculators (gray line). When the gray line is at the bottom of the range (and crosses below the horizontal line marking the 11,000 threshold)... it means speculators are bearish. We've noted the gains that followed recent bottoms in sentiment.

Today, the net futures position has again crossed into bearish territory – less than 11,000. I expect the price of silver to rebound shortly... We could see a small gain, or we could see it go back and retest its previous high.

If silver tests its recent high, it would be a gain of 77%. That gain is in line with the previous silver price runs that followed an extreme low in our indicator.

For it to match the last bull run of 400% from 2008, the silver price would have to hit $81 per ounce. That seems unlikely... but not impossible. The price of silver is highly volatile... In the last 12 years... It's been as low as $4 in 2001 and as high as $45 in 2011 (an outlandish 925% swing).

I'm excited about silver. I bought several bullion coins last month. But I believe we can do better than simply buying silver. You see, if there is one thing bull markets teach us, it's that when silver prices rise, silver miners explode.

This month, I found a fantastic silver miner that has growth built in. Even if the silver price remains where it is today, this company should give us 100% returns in two years. And if the silver price rallies, we could make a fortune.

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:44am


Been some serious capping on gold today ... and flatlining (holding everything in tight ranges).

You can just about feel the hand over the PM market (especially equities) going ... NO! you are not going anywhere just yet.

But after doing nothing last week a few of my juniors are starting to stir, a positive sign.

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:45am

CoT Reports

Are nothing but nonsense. They are lies lies and more lies. It really hit me last week that the CoT reports are nothing but BS. The main things to look out for are delivery failures and mainstream media BS that says that the metals are headed down or are in a bubble. Thats when you know they are desperate enough to put it on the news. Now back to the CoT reports.... Does anyone really pay attention to them and make decisions based on them? I used to but not any longer. Like inflation reports and like unemployment reports, ALL LIES!!!! Stop the brainwashing of CoT reports!!!! Thats like trying to make healthy food choices from the health page on CNN or Fox news. Your just going to get cancer and die like they want you to.

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:48am


looks pretty weak though....

Aug 27, 2012 - 11:55am

Jeez.  Hasn't the last

Jeez. Hasn't the last fifteen month "breather" in silver been enough for you? wink

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:00pm

Donuts with bacon I could probably handle...

Not too sure about this though:

Island Teal
Aug 27, 2012 - 12:01pm

Playing the CRUDE OIL game

per TF

"The next move in crude will drive it to and through $100 and, from there, it will likely move rapidly toward $105. This is a very tradable move so be ready. Any dip to $94 and below would be a logical entry point and I'll be watching it closely."

I'm looking for suggestions on how to play this without options - Suggestions?

thanks - Island Teal

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:02pm

Uh oh....

Yahoo Finance has a headline today saying that Gold is going up...

COT report last week shows EE piling on shorts on both gold and silver......

My sheeple friends who don't know crap from a Silver coin are asking me when QE3 is going to be official....

And to top it off, Bermonkey is opening up his yap this Friday.

Seems likes we may see a waterfall.

As for me, I'm keeping my hard earned stack and I know you all will do the same.

PMs will go up eventually. Why?

Simple. Our government is a slave to the bankers and they set the rules. The sheeple are already brainwashed!

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:06pm


Yes, it has been enough. angel

But it has taught me patience. Even if it continues and this isn't the start of the next up-leg.


Be Prepared
Aug 27, 2012 - 12:09pm

13 is so lucky..

To All My Turdites....

We will never all agree on anything... that is a given. We will be passionate and have strong feelings about many things. The world we see is intertwined with politics, religion, philosophy, money and power and how it is unraveling means that the crimson tide of all of these aspects of our lives will crash together. The discourse of this board is about the end of this experiment. All of us will be challenged to rethink the precepts of our beliefs and how we view our core values. As we travel this road, we must try to extend each other respect and know that we need to explore these differences in a way which allows all of our views to be understood. 

The world is upside down, my friends, and we need to find our commonality. We must push the limits of our willingness to stand against the real culprits of this collapsing morass. We need each other... even if we don't always agree. This road will get much, much worse and it will be very difficult to navigate alone. I am thankful for all the views that I see... even when it is the antithesis of my own... I realize that I have more to gain by learning than by always believing my role is to teach. :-)

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:10pm

Since we are meandering today

I am truly sad.................................. On Saturday Niel Armstrong passed. One of the greatest human beings who ever lived- certainly in our lifetime. His wife said that he was still heartbroken that he got all the accolades - just for being a passenger - when all the real work was done by thousands who were never mentioned. But, what were the headlines on Sat?
''Snooki has a baby bimbo.'' Yah, an ugly fatass stupid ignorant drop-out whose only talent is spreading her fat legs, gets the front page, for getting laid. The MSM should shoot themselves in the face the shameless bastards. My head hurts........................................

Keep reminding me that someday we will look back and laugh

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:16pm

Thanks for seeing me again !

My second ex-wife made her first silver purchase Friday ! 30 ASEs for $1027 .... cash .... LCS ! Congratulations, Sh*ron ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Don't Give Up On Them devil

Island Teal abguy4
Aug 27, 2012 - 12:17pm

Since we are meandering today


Thank You !!!!!!

You said very well what many us thought on Saturday

Island Teal

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:18pm

Bill Murphy comments

For the past month or so Bill Murphy from GATA has been getting increasingly

bullish on silver. He made the call that the metals would break out by the end

of August. He claims to have an informed source that thinks JPM's house of

cards is about to collapse, maybe this week, next week, or next month. He said

I don't know when, but I can guarantee it's going to happen.

Considering the source, I'm surprised this hasn't got a lot more attention. CFTC

has been implying some announcement on the JPM manipulation investigation 

would be coming in September of something to that effect.

Anyone else been watching this?

Roger Godberd tobydaniel
Aug 27, 2012 - 12:20pm

cot reports

Whilst undoubtedly manipulated along wi everything else. Gene Arensberg at GotGoldReport has accurately been forecasting & interpretating the reports the two years I have followed him.

Roger Godberd
Aug 27, 2012 - 12:24pm

@ Turdistheman re. options

Hi Turd can you advise how you got on with the previous metals trading svc.? Any chance you can post what sort of gains & losses you have enjoyed/suffered so I can make a judgement over spending $250 pcm?



Aug 27, 2012 - 12:37pm

Savings To Buy Shiny

Starbucks frappuccino is so expensive.....

To get more shiny.

Make your own iced coffee/frappuccino and save.

6 Cups cold water

6 rounded teaspoons instant coffee, adjust to taste

2 cups liquid French vanilla creamer or favorite flavor (International Delight Brand found in refrigerator case)

Makes 8 cups.

Stir, serve over ice. Refrigerate the remainder... 

8 bottles of Starbucks is around $10.00-$18.00, depending on size of bottle. 8 cups of homemade is under $2.00.....

Aug 27, 2012 - 12:51pm

Island - Consider DIG or HOU

Both are based on oil (DIG also NatGas) and provide 200% up or down based on price of the commodity future.

Straying From the Flock
Aug 27, 2012 - 1:04pm

Is this a no vote?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto said Monday that monetary policy cannot solve all of the economy's problems, including the European debt crisis and uncertainty caused by the stalemate over U.S. fiscal policy. Pianalto is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year and her views on whether the Fed should ease again are being closely watched. Pianalto did not announce whether she supported more Fed asset purchases. While prior Fed asset purchases have provided benefits, the tools come with benefits and risks, Pianalto said. The potential cost of more quantitative easing is it could interfere with financial stability or distort market functioning.

Peaches Marie
Aug 27, 2012 - 1:07pm

Options revisited.....

Good luck, Turd, with your options venture if you decide to go forward with it. Seriously, I sincerely wish you well.

I posted my thoughts a couple weeks back when you first broached the subject. My cautionary post was aimed mainly at retail-option dabblers who buy puts or calls based on bearish or bullish hunches and/or depend on some Guru like Schaeffer and others in the option trading newsletter business.

You stated in an earlier comment that "These would be specific, long-only, put and call recommendations. Maybe the occasional spread but mainly just longs." IMO it is simply impossible to profit consistently over time buying naked calls or puts ahead of big price moves that you might be expecting.

I’ve learned in my nearly 40 years of option trading that one must approach options with an eye on spreading off premium risk by legging into spreads, using "combination" strategies and other special techniques that require a lot of skill in order to bring a small positive expectation to a trade. Profits will usually be small, after all is said and done, assuming you are quick to limit losses from inevitable losing trades. Few novices have the discipline to do this.

Finally, and more to the point, it is exponentially harder to come up with an "anyone-can-do-it" trade that will consistently make profits for your subscribers, the majority of whom will likely be option novices.


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