Burning Down The House

Sat, Aug 25, 2012 - 3:36pm

We had an awesome week and the charts look great. More importantly, a fire has begun that will eventually consume the entire House of Lies.

At first glance yesterday, the CoT hit me like a punch to the gut. I was wrong about something and I hate being wrong. You see, as last week progressed, I became increasingly convinced that JPM's massive silver short position was coming under assault by the other "commercials". I likened this idea to a pack of hyenas sensing the weakness of the leader and turning upon him. Clearly the report, which shows positions as of last Tuesday, does not support this analogy.


Instead of attacking the leader, the pack chose to support the leader, instead. All of the buying in the 8/15-8/21 timeframe came from the specs, both large and small. All of the selling (to the tune of net short 9000+) came from The Forces of Darkness. The Evil Ones unloaded 4651 of their longs (10%) and added 4424 brand new shorts. (For those keeping score at home, that's about 22,000,000 ounces of paper "silver" created out of thin air.) Never fear, Captain Metaphor is here with a new one for you to consider.

The action last week is akin to the actions of an arrogant and drunk homeowner who foolishly built his castle along a tinderbox-dry ridge, confident that his homemade firewall would always protect him. Through the years, his house has stood firm against the elements and the homeowner has grown complacent and comfortable. Last week, the homeowner started down his usual path of preparing for the winter. He has once again begun to stockpile gasoline, liquid propane, kerosene and other accelerants. He places them within his house, confident that he can safely use and remove them at his leisure and blind to the danger a fire would present to his fiefdom.

What he apparently doesn't realize is that a conflagration will soon jump the firewall. His castle, which he thought impervious, will soon be consumed in a fire of his own making.

So, upon further review, I am not the least bit concerned about the makeup of the latest CoT. The homeowner has simply placed himself in greater peril by his actions this week. His house is burning yet he slovenly continues his business. Fat, happy and blissfully unaware of the disaster at hand.

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As we prepare for next week, I thought it appropriate to give you these charts. Look very closely at them and they will tell you a lot. Let's take them one by one. First, an up-close look at a weekly silver. Note that the price has apparently closed right on top of the Battle Royale II line. Might a raid come from here? Of course. However, silver closed Friday above all of its moving averages. Every single one. This is very bullish from a technical perspective and will almost certainly lead to a rally on Monday as technical-based, momentum-chasing spec money comes charging in. The next resistance point that I see is near $31.50, which would be well above the BR2 line.

The weekly chart of gold shows that is is clearly above its Battle Royale line and, like silver, gold closed Friday above its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Once it surpasses 1680, gold will move effortlessly higher toward 1700. (More on that level in a minute.)

And these next two charts should be as reassuring as a hug from an old friend. Note that, after peaking in late April of last year, silver price declined into May of this year, where it began riding higher and consolidating along the long-term trendline. If silver could not be broken down last September, last December or even this May, it ain't gonna be broken down now. Soon, The Battle Royale will be won and silver will move on toward further fights at $33 and $36. For now, though, study this chart and smile.

And while you look at this gold chart, keep in mind that ole Turd very much likes to discover patterns that no one else has yet noticed. Look closely. Gold has followed this channel, this "managed ascent", for nearly four years as part of the larger bull market that began in 2001. Now, look even closer.

Recall that, just yesterday, we discussed the significance of 1665-1675 as it related to the S&P downgrade of the U.S. and The Panic which gripped The Gold Cartel in the weeks that followed. Beginning the following week, gold began to trade uncharacteristically above and outside of its long-term channel. If you count the total amount of time between the breakout UP and the final fall back WITHIN, you get a total of 17 weeks. Fast forward to today. In early May this year, gold fell DOWN and out of its long-term channel. If you count the total amount of time between the breakout DOWN and today, you get a total of 16 weeks. Does this mean that next week is the transition week where price straddles the lower line of the channel, currently near 1700? Will the first week of September bring price action that finally places gold squarely back within the channel? Who knows. But, would you be the least bit surprised by a "candle" this week that lies upon the channel line and a "candle" next week that lies within the channel? I wouldn't be.

Well, that's all for now. Go relax and enjoy your weekend. Do not let the CoT (or anything else for that matter) bother you. Over the past eight trading sessions, silver has rallied nearly 10% and The Evil Empire has not participated. In fact, the have only impeded the rally at their future cost and peril. What is coming will truly be explosive and historic. Like me, you should just remain patient and diligent, adding to your stack whenever possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 26, 2012 - 10:05am

watching the computer models

they are moving further West each run. The more west it goes, the better chances for rain in AR and MO, not that it does much good now.

Morgan City, LA is in the center of the models at this moment. Lots of rigs and refineries are going to shut down.

Disclaimer: not an official forecast.

Aug 26, 2012 - 10:05am

charts by Desert Fox

Somehow, that chart looks like there's alot of cross fire in the zone.

It's like you have some cannons set up below and above the channel and are drawing targets in the cross fire zone.
I'm thinking that Rommel and Patton would have that type of cross fire and artillery map in their heads.

Aug 26, 2012 - 10:09am

c.o.t, e.e, and burning houses

not sure the COT reports can be trusted on a consistent basis.

also not sure the EE has any need to fear of being trapped in a burning bank.

midstream rule changes, legal system capture, invisible government hands, and lapdog media reporting (and non-reporting) is a considerable firewall. no wonder they are arrogant and complacent.

wouldn't it seem that the 'event' (if it comes to pass) will be similarly managed and the status quo preserved to whatever maximum extent can be maintained?

i have been waiting and hoping for the day of comeuppance and real price discovery for a long time, along with everyone else. but i guess what is still unknown and so far not detailed by anyone i've read is exactly how this will supposedly occur. and i don't think anyone really can because of (see third sentence).

jpm going down? maybe, but i'll believe it when i see it.

Aug 26, 2012 - 10:39am

@TF - Isaac

Here's the track map for Katrina.

Katrina can from further south.

I don't believe NOLA is very high in the likelihood of being targetted by Isaac.

The high pressure system over Texas and SE USA will interact with a low pressure that is moving over the SW.

Depends on if the low pressure tugs west or the high pressure pushes Isaac east.

The atmospheric projections are literally all over the map because each algorithm accounts for the atmosphere differently.

Projection of storm movement is extremely difficult with precision because the fluid dynamics are extremely complex to calculate.

One thing is for certain. There will be rain and storm surge at Tampa over the next 72 hours.

More importantly, as Mitt Romney is giving his speech and the GOP are applauding and partying, some people along the Gulf Coast will be flooded out of home, property, and possibly their lives.

Aug 26, 2012 - 10:49am

Race for Resources: The Black Plague

'The Black Plague'

Russia Plays Game of Arctic Roulette in Oil Exploration

article>>> https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/570629#comment-570629

Aug 26, 2012 - 11:03am

Isaac will serve Mobile

With the Stockton refinery out, the Venezuela refinery out and now a hurricane headed to Mobile, gas prices are sure to rise. This could be a serious problem for Obama's campaign. Pressure on Ben "Get Obama Re-Elected to Keep Your Job" Bernanke must be tremendous. He really is caught between a rock and a hard place.

Aug 26, 2012 - 11:05am

Hurricanes (hopefully not)

Video unavailable

This is a good documentary when you get the time to see it. Few people realize the magnitude of what happened back in 1900.

Video unavailable
Aug 26, 2012 - 11:10am

Issac will not be another Katrina

Turd, Issac will be a Cat 3 worst case. It won't be another Katrina for New Orleans.

Katrina produced a surge equal to a monster cat 5 (25+ ft) because of its enormous wind field (125+ miles) and the path it took. It made landfall near SW Pass in LA and again in Pass Christian, Ms - the perfect storm to push tidal surge into the MRGO and lake Potty-train from the east.

The MS Sound is forecast to have 10' at worst. That won't even get the levees wet this time. this storm is moving too fast.

Aug 26, 2012 - 11:30am

The worst case for NOLA is a

The worst case for NOLA is a slow moving storm just to the east like Katrina. The storms spin counter clock wise and NOLA gets an east wind and high tides. Issac will be like Georges (1998) at worst. Some flooding but not the perfect storm.

My dad works for an oil co. They are already making preps to shut down production - so oil will spike Monday as everyone freaks out?

Aug 26, 2012 - 11:34am

Say what you want but...

I would NOT fuck around with this.

The storm could very easily strengthen more than forecast and the most likely path - and we are less than 72 hours out - brings the storm on the exact worst case path for New Orleans. An even worse path than Katrina.

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