Burning Down The House

266
Sat, Aug 25, 2012 - 3:36pm

We had an awesome week and the charts look great. More importantly, a fire has begun that will eventually consume the entire House of Lies.

At first glance yesterday, the CoT hit me like a punch to the gut. I was wrong about something and I hate being wrong. You see, as last week progressed, I became increasingly convinced that JPM's massive silver short position was coming under assault by the other "commercials". I likened this idea to a pack of hyenas sensing the weakness of the leader and turning upon him. Clearly the report, which shows positions as of last Tuesday, does not support this analogy.

Yet.

Instead of attacking the leader, the pack chose to support the leader, instead. All of the buying in the 8/15-8/21 timeframe came from the specs, both large and small. All of the selling (to the tune of net short 9000+) came from The Forces of Darkness. The Evil Ones unloaded 4651 of their longs (10%) and added 4424 brand new shorts. (For those keeping score at home, that's about 22,000,000 ounces of paper "silver" created out of thin air.) Never fear, Captain Metaphor is here with a new one for you to consider.

The action last week is akin to the actions of an arrogant and drunk homeowner who foolishly built his castle along a tinderbox-dry ridge, confident that his homemade firewall would always protect him. Through the years, his house has stood firm against the elements and the homeowner has grown complacent and comfortable. Last week, the homeowner started down his usual path of preparing for the winter. He has once again begun to stockpile gasoline, liquid propane, kerosene and other accelerants. He places them within his house, confident that he can safely use and remove them at his leisure and blind to the danger a fire would present to his fiefdom.

What he apparently doesn't realize is that a conflagration will soon jump the firewall. His castle, which he thought impervious, will soon be consumed in a fire of his own making.

So, upon further review, I am not the least bit concerned about the makeup of the latest CoT. The homeowner has simply placed himself in greater peril by his actions this week. His house is burning yet he slovenly continues his business. Fat, happy and blissfully unaware of the disaster at hand.

Video unavailable

As we prepare for next week, I thought it appropriate to give you these charts. Look very closely at them and they will tell you a lot. Let's take them one by one. First, an up-close look at a weekly silver. Note that the price has apparently closed right on top of the Battle Royale II line. Might a raid come from here? Of course. However, silver closed Friday above all of its moving averages. Every single one. This is very bullish from a technical perspective and will almost certainly lead to a rally on Monday as technical-based, momentum-chasing spec money comes charging in. The next resistance point that I see is near $31.50, which would be well above the BR2 line.

The weekly chart of gold shows that is is clearly above its Battle Royale line and, like silver, gold closed Friday above its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Once it surpasses 1680, gold will move effortlessly higher toward 1700. (More on that level in a minute.)

And these next two charts should be as reassuring as a hug from an old friend. Note that, after peaking in late April of last year, silver price declined into May of this year, where it began riding higher and consolidating along the long-term trendline. If silver could not be broken down last September, last December or even this May, it ain't gonna be broken down now. Soon, The Battle Royale will be won and silver will move on toward further fights at $33 and $36. For now, though, study this chart and smile.

And while you look at this gold chart, keep in mind that ole Turd very much likes to discover patterns that no one else has yet noticed. Look closely. Gold has followed this channel, this "managed ascent", for nearly four years as part of the larger bull market that began in 2001. Now, look even closer.

Recall that, just yesterday, we discussed the significance of 1665-1675 as it related to the S&P downgrade of the U.S. and The Panic which gripped The Gold Cartel in the weeks that followed. Beginning the following week, gold began to trade uncharacteristically above and outside of its long-term channel. If you count the total amount of time between the breakout UP and the final fall back WITHIN, you get a total of 17 weeks. Fast forward to today. In early May this year, gold fell DOWN and out of its long-term channel. If you count the total amount of time between the breakout DOWN and today, you get a total of 16 weeks. Does this mean that next week is the transition week where price straddles the lower line of the channel, currently near 1700? Will the first week of September bring price action that finally places gold squarely back within the channel? Who knows. But, would you be the least bit surprised by a "candle" this week that lies upon the channel line and a "candle" next week that lies within the channel? I wouldn't be.

Well, that's all for now. Go relax and enjoy your weekend. Do not let the CoT (or anything else for that matter) bother you. Over the past eight trading sessions, silver has rallied nearly 10% and The Evil Empire has not participated. In fact, the have only impeded the rally at their future cost and peril. What is coming will truly be explosive and historic. Like me, you should just remain patient and diligent, adding to your stack whenever possible.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  266 Comments

¤
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:29pm

Desert Fox

Lol! Awesome chart....thanks for the laugh

And now for something completely different...

Video unavailable
Puck Smith
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:32pm

Puck and others

Well done.

An inflammatory remark is met with a civilized response.

Thank you.

Desert Fox
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:35pm

Jesse's chart?

God bless him but I cannot, for the life of me, figure out what the fuck all those lines mean.

opticsguy
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:47pm

Jesse's chart

Stochastics.

foggyroad
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:56pm

Jesse is

A true Gentleman.

click header for more..

Chris Hedges on 'Empire of Illusion' and a Vignette of The Fall of Berlin 1945


I came across a nice, compact interview with Chris Hedges which illuminates his thesis of the decline of the American Empire and the illusions and the end of rational thinking that accompanies it. Empires seem to give off quite a bit of flash in their latter stages, rather like the last gasp of a dying star.

The interviewer does a particularly nice job of drawing Hedges out.

I would like to add an observation I made in thinking further this afternoon about the Sophie Scholl piece I put up earlier this morning. There is something about gardening that focuses the mind.

The almost frenetic preoccupation and adherence to the Nazi ideology in the latter stages of the war, when it was obvious to any rational observer that they could not win, is remarkable. I had been particularly struck in my reading some time ago with the 'wolf packs' of Nazis who had raged through Berlin, rounding up old men and even boys who had not joined the Volkssturm, and hanging them, even while the Russians were shelling the Reichstag. It never made sense to me until today.
"The radio announced that Hitler had come out of his safe bomb-proof bunker to talk with the fourteen to sixteen year old boys who had 'volunteered' for the 'honor' to be accepted into the SS and to die for their Fuhrer in the defense of Berlin. What a cruel lie! These boys did not volunteer, but had no choice, because boys who were found hiding were hanged as traitors by the SS as a warning that, 'he who was not brave enough to fight had to die.'

When trees were not available, people were strung up on lamp posts. They were hanging everywhere, military and civilian, men and women, ordinary citizens who had been executed by a small group of fanatics. It appeared that the Nazis did not want the people to survive because a lost war, by their rationale, was obviously the fault of all of us. We had not sacrificed enough and therefore, we had forfeited our right to live,as only the government was without guilt."

God Bless Him, agreed.

¤
Aug 25, 2012 - 10:57pm

Sharing some Audio iCandy

Here's two pretty cool vids at The SpeakEasy right now...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/570583#comment-570583

...and here's a couple more. Enjoy!

Video unavailable
The Moody Blues - Nights in White Satin

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SpeakEasy,NewsTicker,iCandy-Vids https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

foggyroad
Aug 25, 2012 - 11:08pm

Spitzer and Taibbi

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/matt-taibbi-eliot-s...

Got a chance to talk with Eliot Spitzer last night about Eric Holder's decision not to prosecute Goldman Sachs for the offenses laid out in the Levin report.

I was trying not to be too obvious in making the point that Spitzer is an example of the kind of guy you would want looking at that Goldman case. Not only did I not want to look like a suck-up, but I wasn't sure how, "As you know, Eliot, a prosecutor is supposed to be kind of a dick!" would go over. Because I would have meant it in the most complimentary way possible. And it has nothing to do with politics. If you read James Stewart's Den of Thieves you can see that Rudy Giuliani had some of the same key qualities. A good prosecutor should look down the barrel of a bunch of millionaire lawyers at Davis Polk or White and Case and feel turned on by the challenge of combat. Making a deal with any devil should burn him at the core, keep him awake at night.



Read more: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/matt-taibbi-eliot-spitzer-discuss-eric-holders-failure-20120822#ixzz24cNBnjTe

dnlward
Aug 25, 2012 - 11:19pm

Google Earth rocks!

35°40'28.17" N 51°26'35.30" E

/sarc

What the heck?!?! Those dumb camel jockeys sure have a lot of tents!

It almost looks like... like.... a civilization!

/sarc off

Dehumanizing them is needed before we can make war on them. Keep watching TV. Sleep. Obey.

¤
Aug 25, 2012 - 11:25pm

Saturday night...

...and this seems about right. Inside some huge EU clubs and a rave experience.

Qlimax 2009 Headhunterz Full HD 1080p DVD Bluray
Sensation White 2011 Netherlands HD
Strongsidejedi
Aug 26, 2012 - 12:05am

California Lawyer's new office

Law Office of Lando Calrissian

I noticed that California Lawyer has been kinda quiet lately.

I think I found his new commercial.

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