The Murmurs Continue

Tue, Aug 21, 2012 - 4:50pm

Earlier today, I made plans to write up a post this afternoon regarding the edge-straddling status of the 10-year note and the Long Bond. Before I could type it up, both reversed and rallied over a point. Whoops.

As reference material, I ask that you go back and review this post before we continue:

Now take a look at the charts below. They are hourly charts and notice that, as of 4 short hours ago, both charts were on the verge of breaking lower. What happened? I must admit that, at the time, I thought that this was simply a silly collection of quotes. Reviewing them again with the benefit of hindsight I can see that Fed Goon Lockhart was able to accomplish his primary mission. From ZH:


If they (The Fed and its goons) can talk the bond back up, they can forestall the need for QE a while longer.

Note that, by no means, is any of this permanent. Today's action simply mirrors yesterday where a steep drop to support was met with a quick, snap-back rally. Both the bond and the note remain in the tight, little range where they've resided for the past week. What will happen next and which direction will the range break? I have a feeling that tomorrow's FOMC minutes will go a long ways toward providing resolution.

Here are two silver charts that I tucked into the previous post. The first is a weekly chart that I used to finally declare victory in Battle Royale I. Frankly, the bogey for BR1 is now so low that victory became inevitable. Unlike the false hope of 2/28/12 where price immediately fell back below the line, this final victory march began last week near $27.50 and has tagged $2 onto price. BR1 is now over and we have won. Any pullback, if one develops, will use the BR1 line as support, not resistance. Our focus now shifts to BR2, currently near $30.50. It is this line, together with the 200-day MA, that will be the next major battle.

And one more thing you need to take note of...the grains. Both the NovBeans and the DecCorn made new contract highs today as continued heat and drought wreak havoc on the current crops. Since both are at all-time highs it's impossible to say where the next resistance might develop. The DAG, though, sure looks like $16+ is in the cards pretty soon.

That's all for today. Not surprisingly, the metals both came under pressure on the Globex as The Forces of Darkness re-apllied some shorts, post-CoT survey, in order to tamp down price. Well, let 'em. Who cares, anyway? They're about to get blindsided and run over like Randall Cunningham.

Video unavailable

See you tomorrow.


p.s. Freaking TTM is finally taking new subscriptions again. If you'd like to come over and join in the fun, just click the link below. Now is a good time to join, by the way, as tomorrow is Heat Miser Wednesday!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 21, 2012 - 4:52pm

Thanks .....

...for the update.

Aug 21, 2012 - 4:56pm
Be Prepared
Aug 21, 2012 - 4:59pm

The Stand... but will we Remember?

Since the general civilization of mankind, I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power, than by violent and sudden usurpations; but, on a candid examination of history, we shall find that turbulence, violence, and abuse of power, by the majority trampling on the rights of the minority, have produced factions and commotions, which, in republics, have, more frequently than any other cause, produced despotism. If we go over the whole history of ancient and modern republics, we shall find their destruction to have generally resulted from those causes. – Speech at the Virginia Convention to ratify the Federal Constitution (1788-06-06) - James Madison

A Republic, such as ours, always stands on the edge along a deep cliff.....that will bring us all to an abrupt end. The end of this experiment, imo, is not Mad Max, but will the mixtures of fascism, socialism and totalitarianism. What we are and what we have achieved are always on the line and so easily lost. What we lose is a precious understanding that are rights are granted to us by the mere fact of are being and not granted unto us by any government, but, with it, comes a grave responsibility and a social contract of vigilance. I want to be protected for the great storm of this century and seem PMs as a berth upon which to hold fast to the idea that we, as a nation, will right ourselves again. The realist in me, though, sees too many of my fellow citizens inured in a system where this Republic in nothing but what are government tells us it is.... They have no concept and can't fathom what freedom is because they've never been shown or taught what freedom is and what it requires of us. The government, which means Us, have allowed an education with abhors the ideals of Our Constitution. We are a minority and we are shrinking. Our neighbors will be on the side of the jackboot and to believe otherwise will lead you down a path of misery. I hope, as the evidence and the myth of the nanny government fails to deliver, that my fellow citizens will revive their history and embrace its truth. Freedom isn't free and no one is guaranteed anything other than the opportunity to pursue the happiness defined within one's own heart.... Will we Remember?

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:04pm
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:10pm

FOMC and potential smack down

When was the last time the FOMC minutes didn't coincide with an immediate smack down of the metals?

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:10pm

The stars are a lined

So silver has two drivers going forward. One is the monetary aspect because silver is money. But the other is the industrial component, and the demand for silver to cultivate energy is going to skyrocket. Later on, people will not believe you could buy silver in the $20s. It’s a gift right now at $29. 

I think it will be very difficult going forward to acquire large amounts of physical silver. Countries will have a very hard time picking up the necessary silver they will need for all of the demands. When you couple in the investment boom, that is still in front of us, that means the price of silver is literally going into the stratosphere. 

The Chinese know this and that is why they are buying so much physical silver, as well as gold. I have said to many times that we are going to have a mania in the junior mining shares, but we are also going to have a mania in the price of physical silver.”

Colonel Angus
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:13pm

Read very carefully...

Turd said, "Both the NovBeans and the DecCorn made new contract highs today..."

Anyone else read "CONTACT highs" instead of contract highs? I think I've been hanging out with Bill Clinton too much. He might not have inhaled, but he sure blew (the smoke out...right in my direction)

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:14pm

And boom goes retail!

Best Buy’s 2Q net income falls 90 percent; withdraws full-year profit outlook

EARNINGS SLUMP: Best Buy Co. reported a 90 percent drop in second-quarter net income, dragged down by restructuring costs and weak sales The company’s total revenue was up nearly 3 percent. But revenue at stores opened at least a year, a critical yardstick of a retailer’s health, fell 3.2 percent.

BEHIND THE RESULTS: The nation’s largest consumer electronics chain is contending with changing shopping patterns, including a shift to online spending, as well as a weak economy here and abroad.

Swift Boat Vet
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:15pm

Turd? (I Guess it's Fourth)

Thanks for the insight Turd. You have a level head and common sense. Both qualities seem to be lacking in a scary percentage of Americans. Keep up the good work.

On the last rise in silver, I stopped stacking at about $34 and just watched it going to $50 or so. I restarted stacking again at $33 or so, all the way down to $26.50 and back up until now. At present, I have no idea at what point I will stop, but I guess when it just feels like it's starting to feel funny to me. Whenever I stop in the silver department, I stack more food/supplies. I finally have my nat gas lines in for stove, water heater and GAS GENERATOR. Now all I need is the generator!!

If you are wondering what I plan on using when/if gas is too expensive or unobtainable, lookup 'woodgas'. Gonna start building a woodgas generator soon also, who knows???? Maybe this winter. Thanks again for all Turd.


PS 100% in silver until GSR is at an acceptable level.

Big Buffalo
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:15pm

What time are the minutes being released?

I'll go to the LCS sell my silver, then buy it back in the afternoon. I'm dangerous like that.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:19pm

carry over from last thread.. re Copper

Not sure if anyone follows copper miners or not:

Appears to be a rather big deposit of copper in northern MN that they want to go after. Also says it could be the 4th largest precisous metals deposit too. Might be worth watching / investigating for anyone following miners. 

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:19pm
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:32pm

TTM and Dr Jerome

Thanks TF. TTM is great, although I'm not a trader I really enjoy hearing your insights. Hope more will join.

Dr. Jerome, my husband told me yesterday that a good friend of his lost money in "Zeekler." He pitched it to my husband, who told him the same thing you told your brother-in-law. Our friend sent out an apologetic email to his friends he tried to sell it to telling them it was a good thing he was a bad salesman and none of them bought into the scheme. However, my husband says he still won't listen to him about metals. So sad some just refuse to hear! sad

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:33pm

Rothschild - Richer than the Richest on Euro, Gold

A Rothschild brother, this time Jacob of RIT Capital Partners is in thenews again, going short the euro currency with a $200 million position. It is unknown how the position is levered or structured; however, coming from this source, it is a big blow to confidence in the euro currency.

Readers understand that confidence is the greatest asset that underpins a fiat currency.

The Rothschild family is widely believed to control ownership in parts of the most influential central banks today due to their multi-generational history of understanding the value of, and capitalizing on, government enforced monopoly in currency creation. The “founding father of international finance,” as Forbes put it, and patriarch of the family, Mayer Amschel Rothschild said:

“Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”

Mayer Rothschild understood that loaning currency to governments and kings was much more profitable than loaning to private individuals because the loans were bigger, and they were secured by the nation's taxes.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:35pm

The GSR Has Something to Say

Such similarities between now and two years ago. I posted this chart about a week ago with the GSR right on the 50 day MA. I think a closer look now is warranted. -portfolio tracker & analysis of gold and silver stocks

clueless one
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:35pm

Forex issues...

ZH just posted an article regarding one of two major currency trading platforms is down.

this weekend, I tried to open an account, and the message said they were no longer accepting accounts from US based citizens. 

 something wicked this way comes...

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:35pm

I am not affliliated, just thought it was interesting

op Ten Forms of Silver and Gold Sold

(For a year and a half at JH MINT)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, August 21, 2012

The following are the top ten forms of gold and silver sold through the JH MINT.

Here's what customers like about each.

Number 10. Silver 90% Half Dollars. Those are 2% of Sales

They are cheap and close to the spot price. Some people think it might be more useful for bartering with in the future. 

Number 9. Gold African Krugerrands - 1 ounce. Those are 3% of Sales

Gold Krugerrands are durable, since they are 22 karat gold mixed with copper for hardness that helps the coins resist scratching. They are cheap "international" coins.

Number 8. Silver 90% Quarters. Those are 3% of Sales

Number 7. Gold Canadian Maple - 1 ounce. Those are 4% of Sales

Gold Canadian Maples are pure 24 karat gold which is more yellow compared to 22 karat, which has an orange tint from the copper. They are cheap "international" coins.

Number 6. Gold Bars - 1 ounce. Those are 7% of Sales

Gold bars are the cheapest form of gold that is still a full 1 troy oz. in weight.

Number 5. Gold American Eagles - 1 ounce. Those are 7% of Sales

Gold American Eagles are the most popular form of gold we sell. People like them because they are beautiful, "made in the USA", and popular. People want to own gold that will be recognizable when they go to sell it. American Eagles are also 22 karat gold, mixed with copper, for added durability that helps the coins resist scratching. 

Number 4. Silver Bars - 100 ounce. Those are 8% of Sales

Silver bars, 100 oz. in size, are are easily stackable and take up less space in a vault than coins. They are also easier to count, and cheap. These are popular with wealthier investors who buy many of them at once.

Number 3. Silver Bars - 10 ounce. Those are 13% of Sales

Silver bars, 10 oz. in size, are considered "cute" and "more useful" and more easily traded and thus, more barterable. People often buy up to $10,000 of these bars. 

Number 2. Silver American Eagles - 1 ounce. Those are 20% of Sales

Silver American Eagles are recognizable, beautiful, and "made in the USA". 

Number 1. Silver Generic Rounds - 1 ounce. Those are 24% of Sales

Generic Rounds are the most popular product we sell because they are thought to be the most useful form of silver and gold bullion available. 

They have usefulness first as a form of savings, since this is silver, which most buyers believe will outperform gold in terms of going up more in value in the future. 

They are also cheap, with a low cost over the spot price. They are also fungible and most divisible, since they are in the smallest form of silver available in bulk at a cheap price. 

They are also easily countable, as they are made to the 1 troy ounce by weight, and thus, it's easy to calculate what you have.

Occasionally people shy away from rounds, as they think a dealer might not recognize them. But of course we recognize our most popular product! Generic 1 troy ounce silver rounds are also the most popular product that we buy from the general public.

The Watchman
Aug 21, 2012 - 5:36pm

Repost from Bill Murphy of GATA

I think this is VERY POSITIVE for the near term-PRICES ARE READY to EXPLODE .

After much aggravation of late, BOTH gold and silver have
taken out their key resistance points of $1630 and $29
respectively. The bases formed over the past many months
are powerful ones and can support moves to much higher

Thus far the info provided to me by my three sources
about an August precious metals breakout, which will lead
to all-time high prices for gold and silver, is on target.

In addition, it will be helpful to know that it is only
a matter of time before the problem JP Morgan has with
their massive silver short position goes VIRAL! Think
Libor scandal type thing!

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:39pm


at this point I think that if money starts going back into bonds it will probably be coming out of equities....kind of got themselves in a lose, lose situation right now it looks like. Probably let some steam out of the equities for a bit just to get those interest rates headed back in the other direction.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:50pm

One Answer Off The Top Of My Head

"What makes America the greatest country in the world?"

Compassion, and willingness of it's people (Normal People) to go to great lengths to help there fellow man and woman in times of desperation. In my short 50 years I have seen amazing acts undertaken by average people to come to the aid of others in trouble.

This forum is one small example of that. A group of people have come together in the most desperate times many of us have ever known. To share information freely that will help others be able make it through the extremely tough times that are on the horizon. Without thought of payment or compensation.

That is just one reason I believe America is the Greatest Country in the World.


Aug 21, 2012 - 5:51pm

Ruh Roh

Now something else wicked this way comes.

I had to do a double take because I thought it was a typo but noooooo these goofs are actually going to use unallocated gold for margin collateral.

Can someone tell us why this isn't a disaster in the making?

From 28 August 2012 unallocated Gold (Loco London) will be accepted by LCH.Clearnet Limited (LCH.Clearnet) as collateral for margin cover purposes.

Aug 21, 2012 - 5:52pm

But, but every country says this!

"Compassion, and willingness of it's people (Normal People) to go to great lengths to help there fellow man and woman in times of desperation."

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:13pm

Jim Rickards

The more I read and listen to Jim Rickards, the more impressed I am about his depth of knowledge on monetary and fiscal issues.

He really has his shit together and is not afraid to call out the fraudsters, including fuck sticks like tiny Tim Geithner- tiny in ethics and stature!

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:20pm


"That is just one reason I believe America is the Greatest Country in the World."

It's because you believe that, or anyone beliives anything that we are all at constant war.

Who needs belief? We are all alive now, in this moment now. If I judge myself as better than someone else they will attack me if they judge themselves to be better, or worse, than me - which they will if I believe my country is the best - ie that I am more privileged than them.

Judgment means never ending war.

It's not your country anyway. It's a part of the earth. There were no boundaries on earth until I started to make them. Then came never ending war.

Belief is the greatest barrier to truth that there is.

The Vet Xeno
Aug 21, 2012 - 6:26pm

unallocated gold for margin collateral.

They are simply trying to provide confidence in "unallocated" gold. What would happen if they refused to recognize unallocated gold as having any value?

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:39pm

@ tyberious

But, but every country says this!

Which is exactly why I have hope for the future of the planet not just the U.S.

In the coming storm, I believe there will be quite an awakening and entire populations will be shaken from their slumber. Which is exactly what the TPTB are positioning themselves for now. They know the time is coming.

And your post about the stars being aligned I believe to be spot onyes. Except that I personally with my purchases believe Silver to be an absolute Christmas Gift anywhere under $50 an oz.

There are so many applications that call for silver in the electronics industry that are critical to everyday life now in this electronic age. Also the recent and ongoing increases in applications in the medical area due to Silver's anti-microbial properties. Along with Silvers place as money (or investment) how ever one chooses to look at it.

And on the supply side with the mines measuring silver in Grams per Ton of Ore. Per SRSRoccos research.

This may sound a little insane even for our little community. But it would not surprise me even a little bit if one day we wake up one the morning to find that Silver has surpassed Gold in price by quite a bit.

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:45pm

@ Katie Rose

Love your stories. 

I'm just glad you breed goats, and not horses, otherwise you would probably not be on the internet relating your 'tail'...pardon the pun.

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:49pm

Re: unallocated gold for margin collateral.

I was thinking the same thing. The banks know that their holdings are rehypothecated and re-rehypothecated, leased, re-leased and re-re-re-leased and the only physical they have is paper receipts.

Katie Rose
Aug 21, 2012 - 6:50pm

Silver's recent move up

I expected to awake this AM with a black and blue bruise on the right side of my face. Lucky for me it is just tender with no bruising.

Seems my little 2 month old buckling mistook my pony tail for a goat's tail, and the little guy threw his hooves up on each shoulder, hitting my face HARD, as he proceeded to try to impregnate my pony tail. I was sitting out in the pasture enjoying the breeze, when the attempted mating occurred. I don't know when I have ever laughed so hard... blush

I'm thinking that the action in silver is very similar to what went on outside yesterday with my buckling.

I think that another screw job is in progress. It's going up too fast with nothing new to propel it. Unless there is some insider information I am not privy to, this makes no sense.

Don't get me wrong. I love silver! But there is something about this current movement that I just don't trust. I have gotten much more conservative since I bought silver eagles at $46.00 an oz.

Be careful out there! There is no sheriff on duty to protect your interests. The CFTC is dirty. The SEC is dirty. The recent court rulings (7th District Court) are dirty. And our Justice Department under Eric Holder is, I believe, the most corrupt Justice Dept in my lifetime.

The EE isn't like my innocent buckling. They are mature in their evil, and delight in stealing your money.

Aug 21, 2012 - 6:56pm


Not be to all new age but Humanity could live in quite a wonderful world and have a beautiful existence. All the resources are readily available, the ingenuity exist, as does the will, the resistance is there are people and forces that need and exist on chaos!

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