Hot and Explosive?

155
Tue, Aug 21, 2012 - 10:43am

Yes, the past 24 hours have indeed been hot and explosive. Is it THE hot and explosive? Maybe.

As you know, I've been waiting for a "hot, explosive and historic" rally to begin. I'm sure most everyone is wondering whether or not this is the beginning of that move. In all honesty, I can only say "maybe". Let's talk about another option, first.

As you know, The Fed last met for an OMC meeting three weeks ago. At the conclusion of the meeting, the "Fedlines" were released, giving us all some idea of the things The Goon Squad discussed between steak dinners and trips to Cheetahs. Tomorrow, after a 3-week delay, we get the release of the official minutes of the meeting. As you also know, we have already had five or six occasions in 2012 where prices ran up ahead of a Fed/Bernank announcement, only to be summarily beaten back immediately following said Fedlines/press conference. This could be just another occurrence of the SpecSheep being led to the shearing barn. Could. It also might not be.

As we discussed last Friday and over the weekend, the CoT last week was very, very interesting. At 47,797, the gross commercial long position in silver is the highest I ever recall seeing it. Additionally, Uncle Ted suspected that the 4,752 increase in the gross commercial short position came almost entirely from JPM. From there, I began to wonder if we were about to witness a "civil war" in silver.

I used an analogy with Mister Hyde this morning that I think I'll use again here. Currently, the commercials in silver act collusively to crush the specs. In a way, this is similar to a pack of hyenas on the Serengeti. The pack works together to accomplish the kills but there is usually a leader, a bigger male dog that leads the pack. This is all well and good until and unless the the leader ages, becomes weaker and distracted, and becomes vulnerable. At that point, members of the pack may begin to collude to oust the leader. The remainder of the pack may begin to act collusively against the leader and, when the day comes that their confidence rises to the point where they are ready to attack, the pack turns on the leader for their own selfish, potential gain.

So, the question is: Is the silver "leader" vulnerable? Has "the pack" begun to sense the leader's vulnerability? Does the pack know something that you and I don't about the leader's health and viability and, sensing this weakness, have they turned upon the leader?

Here's that word again: Maybe. Though I am supremely confident that the metals, particularly silver, are about to charge off into uncharted territory, I cannot be certain that this is happening right now. This is coming, however, and it is coming very soon. Perhaps the leader will survive and even play along? Maybe. In the end, it doesn't mater. Prices are going much, much higher whether they like it or not.

The metals are almost certainly getting some support from crude. As we identified last week, once crude broke out of its latest consolidation spot, it was likely to head toward $98-99, perhaps as soon as late this week. Well, we're already there, all the Iran v Israel grumblings giving things another shove higher this morning. The next short-term top and consolidation looks to come in just below par, near $99 or so. Let's see what happens from there but anyone trading might ring the cash register a little if give the opportunity to take some off near $100.

Finally, our pal Ned was on with Max earlier today and he did an outstanding job of discussing unallocated/allocated and a number of other items. I strongly suggest that you take the time to watch this video. Perhaps an admin could embed it below so that you don't have to leave the site to watch.

https://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-330-max-keiser/

I also traded emails with Ned this morning and he asked me to alert everyone to the falling gold:silver. Ivars has been doing a great job of keeping us up-to-date on this and I hope he'll post another chart of the ratio soon. A drop below 55 would seem to be something for which you should keep a look out.

And one more thing...I am going to begin to actively remove political and other content that is posted to the main threads that doesn't promote the wider discussion. Everyone already knows that O'bomney is guaranteed to win in November so we don't need a daily barrage of left-wing and right-wing propaganda/marketing. If you want to start your own site and publish all of that stuff, go right ahead. (Be prepared, though, as it is way more expensive than you might think) This is my site and I decide what stays and what goes, what gets published and what does not. This site is not your personal political propagandizing tool. It is a site that I have built for all of us to discuss the precious metals and our personal preparations for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The "Main Street" thread our primary "front door" and I will not allow personal political agendas to slow or otherwise harm the growth of this site. Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward. The American election is less than 90 days away and if we don't correct this now, I fear our site will be destroyed by mindless, partisan infighting.

That is all for now. As I go to publish, I see that the metals are hanging in there. This is good. One step at a time. Today's goal should be to close above $29 in silver and above $1635 in gold. Let's worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Have a fun day.

TF

12:35 pm EDT UPDATE:

On the heels of he very impressive action this week, I am ready to declare that Battle Royale I has now finally been won by the good guys. Any attempts to raid price and dip it lower will now find support at the descending line. The next major battle will now be at Battle Royale II, the line connecting the 4/11, 9/11 and 2/12 peaks. This line currently resides near 30.50, which is the area where we also find the 200-day moving average.

I plan to write up a new post later this afternoon or early evening so please be sure to check back.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  155 Comments

Orange
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:22am

Silver pricing

Anybody notice that the price of silver seems to be priced lower on CNBS than these real time charts.

https://pennystockjournal.blogspot.ca/p/silver.html

or

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilverw.html

CNBS showed 29.29 when the others showed 29.36 and 29.37 respectively.

I know there is a slight delay, perhaps 5 seconds for CNBS but checking the charts, it would not account for the difference.

ReachWest
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:23am

Great Analogy

Thanks Turd. Great analogy re the pack of Serengeti hyenas.

Perhaps, the Silver worm has turned. Time to move prepping into final high gear.

Istack
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:27am

I will not start celebrating yet

but i am thinking about icing up the champagne

because its the right thing to do

Larry
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:28am

Silver lord of the flies?

Could the hubris filled, Dubious Dapper Dimon be losing the pack of jackals? No more Dapper? Maybe he'll revert back to his Diminutive Dimon status after the competing alphas take him out. I have a theory that this was the plan for him for quite a while now. Give the little Beta dog some easy meat, let him run ahead of the pack. Watch him get too cocky, thinking he's an alpha while getting too greedy, thinking he's politically untouchable and allow him to get way over extended... and then let him lead himself and maybe even JPM to financial demise. The little fall guy that caused silver to explode higher than anyone ever imagined.

Or something like that.

¤
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:28am

TF said... (WR w/BC)

"And one more thing...I am going to begin to actively remove political and other content that is posted to the main threads that doesn't promote the wider discussion. Everyone already knows that O'bomney is guaranteed to win in November so we don't need a daily barrage of left-wing and right-wing propaganda/marketing. If you want to start your own site and publish all of that stuff, go right ahead. (Be prepared, though, as it is way more expensive than you might think) This is my site and I decide what stays and what goes, what gets published and what does not. This site is not your personal political propagandizing tool. It is a site that I have built for all of us to discuss the precious metals and our personal preparations for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The "Main Street" thread our primary "front door" and I will not allow personal political agendas to slow or otherwise harm the growth of this site. Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A White Room w/Black Curtains @The Watchtower

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/569581#comment-569581

On the heels of what TF just posted I'll reiterate that everyone has a thread where they can quickly go if they're not sure if they're on topic or if a developing conversation starts to get a little 'hot/explosive".... 'White Room/Black Curtains is a quick click away and an outlet for just that reason.

I think it's safe to say you can let it rip over there (within the sites rules of decorum) and have at it. Consider it to be a thread for all of you who don't want to or know how to start a thread or where .

Everyone needs an outlet....The White Room w/Black Curtains is that place maybe and it belongs to all of you if you want to use it

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/569581#comment-569581

tmosleyswampman
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:29am

Depends on where they are

Depends on where they are traded, and the willingness of market players to continue to participate in less manipulated markets given truly massive market manipulation in other sectors.

Spot price going to zero does NOT mean that silver will be worthless. It means that the market is broken, and transactions will have to move off market, which will expose a lot of people to a lot of potential for fraud. It also means that a lot of paper instruments that are based off of spot prices will become worthless (I'm looking at you, SLV).

exiledbear
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:29am

Yup capped at 1%

For a $16 move. They're not getting overrun yet, I wouldn't get too excited just yet. They will get overrun.

Nana
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:30am

Hot Hot Hot

Feelin Hot Hot Hot!!
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:34am
Missiondweller
Aug 21, 2012 - 11:37am

Gold price standard deviation

Great chart on gold

We know the fundamentals for gold have been great and even improving. This graph indicates that the timing is likely quite good as well.

And compare the consolidation to 2008:

The graphs came from a pretty good SeekingAlpha article here.

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