Select Stocks Send Signal

Fri, Aug 17, 2012 - 10:43am

Perhaps we have a new acronym on our hands? The SSSS. Yesterday, quite by chance, I noticed that several of the best mining stocks are making 6-month highs. Is this another signal that higher metals prices are right around the corner?

Yesterday afternoon, I opened an app on my phone that is programmed to follow the major indices as well as 15-20 miners. I only opened it to see how the overall stock market was faring (which is something I rarely do) and then I scrolled down to look at a few miners (which is something I do even less). A couple of them caught my eye. I saw GOLD (Rangold) first and noticed that it was pushing 100. Then I noticed AEM (AgNico Eagle) and thought it looked noticeably higher, too. I pulled up charts and saw that they are both at 6-month highs. Wait a minute here. Hold on just a second. Isn't it curious that two, top miners would be moving to new 6-month highs while the metals are still stuck in a trading range?

The last time GOLD was near 100 was last March when gold was near 1700. The last time AEM was $46 was last November, when gold was close to 1750. What does this mean? Beats the crap out of me! But seriously...this could be phenomena specific to these could be just another sign of the impending resurgence and rally in the price of the metals.

The next question should be: Do any of the other miners look like this? Well, not really. I did find two of our old favorites that are perking up a bit following recent earnings "disappointments" and need to be watched.

And the HUI itself is looking better. I can't give an ALL CLEAR yet but...if the HUI can keep rolling higher and post a few closes over 460...there may finally be reason for optimism in the mining sector.

And, of course, any mention if the term "HUI" here in Turdland comes with the obligatory posting of the SMOKING HOT Carrie Underwood singing about it. (Neo-turdites should know that, to my partially-deaf left ear, "undo it" sounds like "the hui".) (And I'll never understand what she sees in that meathead hockey player.)

Carrie Underwood - Undo It (Official Music Video)

OK, after I wipe off the cold sweat in which I suddenly find myself drenched, it's back to business. In an absolutely stunning development, the metals surged this morning at the open, only to be CAPPED ONCE AGAIN near 1620 and 28.25. Though I know many of you are getting sick of this crap and are dying to see the metals break out, you must remain patient. Fundamentally, gold and silver are extremely strong and, even when left to their own devices, are poised to eventually break out. ( But, screw that. I don't want to wait much longer so maybe we can begin forcing the issue next week. Until then, here are graphic representations of our current predicament.

And I'm not sure which of these two stories make me feel more nauseous. You'll likely read the NYT story before heading off to barf and then return to watch the video before getting sick again. First up, all of the conniving, criminal thieves at MFingGlobal are apparently set to walk free. Hmmm, I've got an idea. What do you say you and I start an investment firm where we take client money and use it to place huge, extremely risky trades. Then, when it all breaks down and the clients lose their money (which they were told was "safe" and "segregated"), we simply laugh it off as "porous risk controls" and walk away. How do you think that might work out for us? Maybe just a bit differently than it has for the criminal Corzine and his merry band of politically-connected, reprehensible outlaws? And don't forget that just last week, your Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals established as precedent that the theft of client funds is now completely legal. God Bless the U.S.A.!

And then there's this. I found this video on ZH last night. It is a time-lapse progression of the ownership makeup of the U.S. treasury market. Note that, in 2003, the Fed had a nearly even ownership across the curve. Watch then how this progresses. Now, the Fed is nearly out of short-term treasuries but they have come to completely dominate everything with a maturity of 3 years to 30 years where they own as much as 70% of the market! Simply amazing. And disgusting! This is America, land of the free and home of the brave where capitalism and free markets create productivity by equitably deciding who wins and who loses. NOT!!!

Fed vs. Private Sector Treasury Holdings

Listen up, you witch. Your days are numbered. We're onto you and soon you and all of your monkeys will be sent scurrying into exile. Perhaps you will be lucky and be allowed the fate of that goon, Corzine. Perhaps not. In the end, it matters little. All that does matter is that the game is ending and you are going to lose.

Drago: You Will Lose


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 18, 2012 - 12:03pm


Lets hope it's catching!

ClinkinKY daveyboy
Aug 18, 2012 - 12:06pm

@ daveyboy

Serial killers also present a "normal" persona. (Unnecessary politically correct disclaimer--I'm not saying LF is a serial killer, just that some people "say what you want to hear") And I'm done with Calypso Louie.

Aug 18, 2012 - 12:12pm

Promises, promises - the can reaches Sept 6:

Four crucial days to decide Europe's fate

Whatever it takes: ECB bank chief Mario Draghi needs to deliver. Photo: AP

AFTER yesterday announcing a 5.5 per cent higher $4.5 billion profit for the nine months to June, ANZ chief executive Mike Smith said - as others have said in this profit reporting season - that he isn't running the business on the assumption that subdued trading conditions will soon end.

Even if Europe comes up with a plan to resolve its sovereign debt crisis, the world is in a ''multi-year debt workout,'' Smith says. The short-term outlook for Europe is, however, crucial and there are four deadlines looming: next Friday, September 6, September 12, and October 8.

September 6 is a big one. It's the day the markets want European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to definitively explain his July 26 promise to ''do whatever it takes to preserve the euro''.

The ECB met a week after he spoke, and Draghi announced that the central bank was considering ''outright open market operations'' in sovereign bond markets....

The ECB will step into the markets and begin buying sovereign bonds that Spain and Italy have already issued, focusing on shorter-term paper where its buying gets the most traction. The EU will separately buy new longer term bonds from Spain and Italy - but only if they agree to tighter EU fiscal controls.

Draghi said on August 2 that the buying would be ''of a size adequate to reach its objective''. That objective is a sustained rise in Spanish and Italian bond prices and a proportional fall in bond yields and borrowing costs.

Draghi wants to eliminate a ''convertibility discount'' in Spanish and Italian bond prices that reflects fears that the two nations will fall out of the euro system....

Read more:

Meetings, and announcements, and meetings and announcements and all the while the fiat crumbles, structural weakness indeed. I'll bet they wish they could just take it down quietly too.

ClinkinKY Really-
Aug 18, 2012 - 12:12pm

Damn Really-

You know your stuff:)

I agree with that lineup. We must be in the same area code.

Except it's Hannigan, not Harrigan:)

And Ludwick, not Ludwig. I'm starting to think you're A Redbird fan, not a Redleg fan:)

Really- ClinkinKY
Aug 18, 2012 - 12:21pm


Nah, a Redbird fan would spell Votto wrong.

Aug 18, 2012 - 12:33pm

SaTURDay !

It's kind of like "Open Line Friday" ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Inmates Run Assylum

Aug 18, 2012 - 12:44pm

3,500% profit approx.

Xeno.....with all due respect.

It could be said that anyone who didn't take profits at $55K might be moronic or at the least a bit greedy. My math could be off but it seems like an approx. 3,500% profit and knowing enough to sell at a possible peak is wise. I don't think they'll bid gold to $55K/oz. and even if they did, does anyone think they'll just keep letting it get higher and higher at that point?

When gold is revalued that high (if ever) is when nationalization happens shortly thereafter. We'll be fortunate to be able to redeem it that high of a price because there are so many things they can do before it ever gets to that point. I'd be happy with and wise to take 1,000% any day of the week and thinking that we will have lots of options in their monetary decision as they bid it higher is wishful thinking. Holding out for the moon and anything over 3500% is just asking too much imho.

What would your sell price need to be? I don't see $55K gold anytime soon. And I especially don't see them allowing private holders to be allowed at that point to own gold. $55K gold means things are so out of whack that the free market concept and the current fairness part of it will be gone also. Taking profits at whatever top forms is where it's at imho. Look at a gold chart of the early 1980's and I bet there were lots of people hoping for $900 or higher.

A moon shot to $55K and I'm mostly out of the market or gold/silver (not all of it) because at that point their decision will be long lasting and carry everyone for another 50-100 years hopefully. That's what history has shown unless it completely implodes.

Try getting $55K or higher at that point from anyone.

Aug 18, 2012 - 1:04pm

New Thread, fellow Turdites!

New Thread, fellow Turdites!

Aug 18, 2012 - 2:28pm

DPH, withall due

DPH, with all due respect,

Where are you coming from man? Don't you realize that gold is becoming an asset just as or better than cash? That it's being implemented as a Teir 1 asset?

After a revaluation why would anyone sell it instead of use it? Even if you only had 1oz. would you sell it or pledge it as collateral against a home loan or some such?

At that point, what physical holder would care about x% profit, it wouldn't matter since it would be a recognized asset which could be used in so many more profitable ways than just selling it to take profits and pay some taxes.

Now, traders and paper holders, that's a different story altogether if there'd be any gold paper hangers left around.

Aug 18, 2012 - 2:49pm


Good conversation I don't think your a moron

I just think that if were at $1600 right now and it took 30 years or so from the peak of the early 80's to get where were at (1600) that the CB's and Govt.'s aren't just suddenly going to go from $1600-ish to $55K.

Don't get me wrong, a large part of me wants gold to skyrocket like crazy. Past $55K or more!

BUT...I don't think they'll let if get that way out into the stratosphere suddenly and I don't think they'll let a genuinely free open market suddenly happen with an evolving price disclosure (from $55K up)because if anything we've seen them probably trying to do prevent that forever it seems.

This doesn't mean that I don't think that some true price discovery can't happen at these lower levels once China or whomever else starts to get involved. China though from what we've seen likes to keep most items and their prices pretty much in check and not wildly to the upside in almost anything they do. Their very conservative and controlling. I don't see them letting their sovereign monetary asset be subject to fluctuation unless they want it to.

I could see where we are right now that the price discovery that's probably going to unfold in some manner allows for bidding up towards $10-15K and I think at some point if gold (I think it will be ) is going to become one of the, if not the core asset of value then i think they'll confiscate or nationalize every bit they can and have to have in their hands.

I think portends many drastic things taking place before it's allowed to get there. Basel III will happen in 2013 and gold will rise for various reasons but I'm not sure the general public and the sovereigns bidding it up to and past $55K will be allowed to get to that point.

I hope I'm wrong on some level. $55K gold and $500 or so silver sounds pretty awesome to me. Will it happen? Idk.

benque Mickey
Aug 18, 2012 - 3:42pm

HUI components


Oh, well...excuse me. I thought we were starting from scratch, but instead, what you already have makes my efforts look like chicken scratches. At least I learned something...LOL

Love to see what you find, if you do find "real-time" weightings. Do you track XAU as well?


Aug 18, 2012 - 4:13pm

Likewise DPH. Yeah it's taken

Likewise DPH.

Yeah it's taken 30yrs. to get to 1600, but it's still far short of where it should be.


The trouble getting from here to there, imho, is the debt load a.k.a. the bond bubble. Not sure getting there without crashing that bubble is possible and a crash in the debt and bond mkts. will no doubt completely crash and burn the real economy.

At this point, with the fed holding a very larger portion of the debt, the only way out I see is a revaluation against the debt and/or writing off a portion of the debt combined with a revaluation. And I believe either case necessarily involves a new currency and a reformed govt. in some way shape or form. Oh, and don't forget prison time. And a whole lot of it.

Trading? If a reval. happens I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a force majure’ to save the short institutions and the system, so that would necessarily also cancel the long side trading positions as well. No? Well, as far as commodity and levered/unbacked ETF positions goes anyway. Miner stocks? I’m sure only unmargined rock solid positions will survive. Like JS said, get your shares in hand or in DRS. You may think you own them but you only really borrowed them from your broker.

Men and boy stuff this.

Aug 18, 2012 - 5:23pm


a crash in the debt and bond mkts. will no doubt completely crash and burn the real economy.

I'm no so sure of that. It would definitely lead to a sharp downturn--even a crash--but the Austrian Schools guys, e.g., Tom Woods, Peter Schiff and even Rothbard and Mises himself say such a crash is necessary to liquidate the malinvestment and free up resources for productive uses.

You might find this link

The Forgotten Depression of 1920

and this video to be instructive.

Why You've Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.

I know I did.

The Green Manalishi
Aug 18, 2012 - 5:50pm

Bullionvault investor bets against Euro.

Lord Rothschild takes £130m bet against the euro

Lord Rothschild has taken a near-£130m bet against the euro as fears continue to grow that the single currency will break up.

Lord Rothschild has led RIT since 1988 Photo: AP

The member of the banking dynasty has taken the position through RIT Capital Partners, the £1.9bn investment trust of which he is executive chairman.

The fact that the former investment banker, a senior member of theRothschild family, has taken such a view will be seen as a further negative for the currency.

The latest omen follows news in The Daily Telegraph

late last week that the government of Finland is already preparing for the euro’s break-up.

RIT, which Lord Rothschild has led since 1988, had a -7pc net short position in terms of principal currency exposures on the euro at the end of July, up from -3pc at the end of January. Given a net asset value of £1.836bn at the end of July, the position is worth £128m.

Sources close to RIT suggested that the position was not a dogmatic negative view on the euro as a currency, but rather a realistic approach on a currency that remains relatively weak.


Jeremiah Jr
Aug 18, 2012 - 8:42pm

Hobgoblin Tagert

Re: Farrakhan: he's closer to the truth than most. The Rothschilds (Bauer) are just as Jewish as Soros is, which is they aren't. Identity theft of a historically-persecuted people was the perfect cover. Religion does not equal ethnicity and their satanic cult religion grants them the right to lie, cheat, steal, and kill all of us here. It's just a matter of time before it is out. This is discussed in the CF forums.

Still at it I see.

Agreed, Even Farrakhan knows who America is. Ironic and as twisted as his theology is, the guy actually knows our scriptural identity, Tell me the Lord does not have sense of humor.

How ironic that a II Peter 2 false profit can see who we are yet the masses are blind. As for Israel go to the forums.

Dagney Taggart
Aug 18, 2012 - 8:58pm


Hobgoblin now? Thank you.

They are going down and there are no lies that can be told to prevent it.

Jeremiah Jr
Aug 19, 2012 - 4:08pm

Your are right

They are going down, but it won't be by yours, or the hand of any mere human, or even some sort of 'collective awakening'.

Ain't going to happen. Don't mislead people on this. You cause them to put their hope in the wrong place.

Just watch what happens when someone finally attacks Jerusalem. Ezk 38-39

"As birdsflying, so will the Lord of hosts defend Jerusalem; defending also he will deliver it; and passing over he will preserve it." Isaiah 31:5

He is not coming back to defend and deliver white Anglo Saxon protestants, regardless of the nation.

You best chose your words carefully when speaking on matter such as this, Metals.. & financial commentary have at it, your smarter that I on this. I know who the true Israel is, and the God behind them. Please don't confuse who is who.

Aug 19, 2012 - 4:16pm

C'mon now...

...let's not go there on a nice Sunday and pleasant weekend.

TGIF & This Weekend

Dragging this forward from the end of the last thread in response to DT

Market opens up pretty soon. I'm not sure what to expect any longer.

Just when we settle into "A'www, it'll probably be flat" ... is when it'll happen...I hope!

Aug 19, 2012 - 6:37pm

@Puck T. Smith

I don't disagree with you at all and actually that's kind of what I implied.

When I said completely, I meant that there are multitudes of people that won't understand what's happening and they will as a result most likely panic, riot, and make other bad choices that will render most things crashed and burned. That's the trouble with getting from here to there.

Sorry, I should have expounded more.


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