Select Stocks Send Signal

289
Fri, Aug 17, 2012 - 10:43am

Perhaps we have a new acronym on our hands? The SSSS. Yesterday, quite by chance, I noticed that several of the best mining stocks are making 6-month highs. Is this another signal that higher metals prices are right around the corner?

Yesterday afternoon, I opened an app on my phone that is programmed to follow the major indices as well as 15-20 miners. I only opened it to see how the overall stock market was faring (which is something I rarely do) and then I scrolled down to look at a few miners (which is something I do even less). A couple of them caught my eye. I saw GOLD (Rangold) first and noticed that it was pushing 100. Then I noticed AEM (AgNico Eagle) and thought it looked noticeably higher, too. I pulled up charts and saw that they are both at 6-month highs. Wait a minute here. Hold on just a second. Isn't it curious that two, top miners would be moving to new 6-month highs while the metals are still stuck in a trading range?

The last time GOLD was near 100 was last March when gold was near 1700. The last time AEM was $46 was last November, when gold was close to 1750. What does this mean? Beats the crap out of me! But seriously...this could be phenomena specific to these companies...OR...it could be just another sign of the impending resurgence and rally in the price of the metals.

The next question should be: Do any of the other miners look like this? Well, not really. I did find two of our old favorites that are perking up a bit following recent earnings "disappointments" and need to be watched.

And the HUI itself is looking better. I can't give an ALL CLEAR yet but...if the HUI can keep rolling higher and post a few closes over 460...there may finally be reason for optimism in the mining sector.

And, of course, any mention if the term "HUI" here in Turdland comes with the obligatory posting of the SMOKING HOT Carrie Underwood singing about it. (Neo-turdites should know that, to my partially-deaf left ear, "undo it" sounds like "the hui".) (And I'll never understand what she sees in that meathead hockey player.)

Carrie Underwood - Undo It (Official Music Video)

OK, after I wipe off the cold sweat in which I suddenly find myself drenched, it's back to business. In an absolutely stunning development, the metals surged this morning at the open, only to be CAPPED ONCE AGAIN near 1620 and 28.25. Though I know many of you are getting sick of this crap and are dying to see the metals break out, you must remain patient. Fundamentally, gold and silver are extremely strong and, even when left to their own devices, are poised to eventually break out. ( https://stream.marketwatch.com/story/markets/SS-4-4/SS-4-9338/) But, screw that. I don't want to wait much longer so maybe we can begin forcing the issue next week. Until then, here are graphic representations of our current predicament.

And I'm not sure which of these two stories make me feel more nauseous. You'll likely read the NYT story before heading off to barf and then return to watch the video before getting sick again. First up, all of the conniving, criminal thieves at MFingGlobal are apparently set to walk free. Hmmm, I've got an idea. What do you say you and I start an investment firm where we take client money and use it to place huge, extremely risky trades. Then, when it all breaks down and the clients lose their money (which they were told was "safe" and "segregated"), we simply laugh it off as "porous risk controls" and walk away. How do you think that might work out for us? Maybe just a bit differently than it has for the criminal Corzine and his merry band of politically-connected, reprehensible outlaws? https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/no-criminal-case-is-likely-in-loss-at-mf-global/?hp And don't forget that just last week, your Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals established as precedent that the theft of client funds is now completely legal. God Bless the U.S.A.!

https://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-09/bank-of-new-york-mellon-wins-appeal-on-312-million-lien

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/us-sentinel-appeals-decision-idUSBRE87900T20120810

And then there's this. I found this video on ZH last night. It is a time-lapse progression of the ownership makeup of the U.S. treasury market. Note that, in 2003, the Fed had a nearly even ownership across the curve. Watch then how this progresses. Now, the Fed is nearly out of short-term treasuries but they have come to completely dominate everything with a maturity of 3 years to 30 years where they own as much as 70% of the market! Simply amazing. And disgusting! This is America, land of the free and home of the brave where capitalism and free markets create productivity by equitably deciding who wins and who loses. NOT!!!

Fed vs. Private Sector Treasury Holdings

Listen up, you witch. Your days are numbered. We're onto you and soon you and all of your monkeys will be sent scurrying into exile. Perhaps you will be lucky and be allowed the fate of that goon, Corzine. Perhaps not. In the end, it matters little. All that does matter is that the game is ending and you are going to lose.

Drago: You Will Lose

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  289 Comments

Nana
Aug 17, 2012 - 3:24pm

AND DON'T FORGET

That Russia derives 75% of its tax revenue from the sale of oil and gas. They have a distinct, vested interest in seeing prices continue to climb.

Aug 17, 2012 - 3:26pm

meathead hockey player?

Well, them is just fighting words, on topic or off. You use blond temptresses to lure away our young handsome athletes - even Missy Franklin - ah ... words fail me.

I think it might be a girl thing - man could he wear clothes well. Of course, I suspect his wallet was pretty thick too.

SilverWealth
Aug 17, 2012 - 3:34pm

Turd

Imo Turd if you post the big moving averages on those miners it will help those who may not know, how to see where they are on the chart.

silver foil hat ReachWest
Aug 17, 2012 - 3:45pm

@RW

That's it.

If you draw a channel on the 8 hour chart you will see that the lines already intersected, and when they did silver dropped to the 26 handle. It has been in an up channel since then, however. The best they could do after failing the DB at the close of the pennant was to get a 26 handle, but now it is trading at or above the lower long trend close line depicted on your chart.

tyberious
Aug 17, 2012 - 3:56pm

I wanted to post this in it's entirety

ll that is needed…

by Bill Holter, MilesFranklin.com:

…is just one Billionaire to place an order on the COMEX for Silver and POOF…it’s all over! Seriously, this is true, just a single $1 Billion order would basically wipe out ALL deliverable Silver held at the COMEX. Not only that, I suspect that if a huge order came through (which is discouraged by position limits on the long side), much of the supposed “deliverable” Silver would change categories or even evaporate prior to being delivered. Think about how small $1 Billion is. It is equal to roughly a mere 8 hours time of which our government borrows 24/7. It is like going to bed and getting a good 8 hours of sleep…wake up and we borrowed another $1 Billion. Only in this case, once this market gets broken and trust me, $1 Billion will do it, we will go to sleep, wake up, and no Silver will be available.

Years ago, Warren “Gold ain’t money, it’s barbaric” Buffett held 129 million ounces of Silver (equal to nearly $4 Billion at today’s price). It was speculated at the time when he sold it that he had his arm twisted to do so, maybe, maybe not. I bring this up because there are now no hordes of this size available, ANYWHERE and the “threshold” to breaking this market goes down every single day. Have you ever wondered what will happen if (when) this market does get broken? You might at first think “who cares?” but that would be shortsighted. I say shortsighted because any action in Silver will surely spill over into the Gold arena and Gold exploding higher is definitely not a “confidence” builder, on the contrary, fear is THE greatest financial emotion of them all.

Read more @ MilesFranklin.com

August 17th, 2012 | Category: News

2 comments to All that is needed…

  • Hman August 17, 2012 at 1:58 pm · Reply

    All the billionaires are looking at silver like it’s the forbidden fruit, because they know it will be a personal war against the US government and western powers and that what’s stopping them from pulling the trigger.

  • GoodOleBoy August 17, 2012 at 2:13 pm · Reply

    I am definitely a silver bug and believe tight physical supply because of artificially low prices will eventually force prices higher. That said, the talk about about a shortage at the COMEX will, in my opinion, not be the catalyst. According to their prospectus, the COMEX has the ability at any time to force a cash settlement on any trade. They could do this with deliverable silver still in their vaults. I’m sure that the would issue a blatant lie to accompany such an action, one the sheeple would buy as it is delievered by the MSM. I think a more likely scenario would be some sort of scandal in the SLV or GLD. Or maybe a scandal involving JPMORGAN and their silver short position.

    Point being there will never be a verified shortage at the COMEX as long as they are able to cash settle any trade they choose. That is probably the reason Soros and Paulson will raid the deliverable SLV and GLD

Aug 17, 2012 - 3:59pm

Really, really interesting silver CoT

I had expected gold to be a non-event and it was. For the reporting week, price fell $10 and OI only fell by 67 contracts. The only item of minor note was the 2,478 net drop in The Gold Cartel net short position which brings their net short ratio back under 2 at 1.98:1. Again, this is historically low and very bullish.

The action and the intrigue is in silver. For the reporting week, silver fell 32c but total OI rose by 4700. Obviously, there was a lot of new buying and selling going on. The question was/is: Just whom was on each side? Well...whaddayaknow...it looks like we have a civil war starting in silver.

For the week, The Silver Cartel total long position grew by 3,202 contracts. This is likely the silver "raptors", as Uncle Ted likes to call them. However, The Silver Cartel total short position also grew by 4,752 contracts. This is likely JPM but I'll wait to see who Ted fingers in his report tomorrow.

I've never seen a Silver Cartel long position this high before. Never. Maybe it has been but I sure as heck don't remember when. For perspective, on 2/28/12 it was 33,802 and on 4/20/11 it was 34,043. Nearly identical levels before sharp beatdowns. On 12/27/11, just before a 2-month, 20% UP move, the total long position was 41,224. Now it's 47, 797!

Similarly, the total short position is unusually large. The last time it was this high was on 3/6/12, just after the peak and subsequent beatdown of late February. In the recent past, it has been as high as 89,827 on 4/6/11 and as low as 55,356 back on 12/27/11.

At first glance, we appear to have the makings of a civil war. Instead of acting collusively, the smaller banks seem to be buying and thus attacking the short position of JPM. To contain price, JPM is being forced to issue new paper independently. Again, this is how it appears. Let's wait until Uncle Ted dissects the report before jumping to any more conclusions.

Perhaps the smaller sharks smell blood in the water. Maybe they sense the opportunity to trap JPM on the short side and squeeze the daylights out of them. Could these banks be expecting an historic, hot and explosive move in the weeks ahead???

George Clooney
Aug 17, 2012 - 4:01pm

xty

I think your picture speaks for itself. The guy is clearly a meathead.

SilverWealth
Aug 17, 2012 - 4:02pm

Excellent advice, SW.

Excellent advice, SW.

Nana
Aug 17, 2012 - 4:20pm

Thanks Turd

I didn't know Russia derived 75% of its tax revenue from the sale of oil and gas, wow that is huge.

I have heard that BP has stopped the Liberty Rig drilling on Gull Island until oil hits around $150.00 a barrel.

Then I heard O'bottom may open the oil reserves too, so do you think it could be used to pressure Russia to back off Syria and to keep prices down until after the elections? Thanks.

Sisyphus
Aug 17, 2012 - 4:31pm

@tyberious All it needs....

Is that something like what the Hunt bros. tried? It was before my time (not my time on Earth, but well before I got interested in all this stuff). Anyone got a cheat sheet on how exactly they "cornered the market" back then, and what's different now?

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