Select Stocks Send Signal

Fri, Aug 17, 2012 - 10:43am

Perhaps we have a new acronym on our hands? The SSSS. Yesterday, quite by chance, I noticed that several of the best mining stocks are making 6-month highs. Is this another signal that higher metals prices are right around the corner?

Yesterday afternoon, I opened an app on my phone that is programmed to follow the major indices as well as 15-20 miners. I only opened it to see how the overall stock market was faring (which is something I rarely do) and then I scrolled down to look at a few miners (which is something I do even less). A couple of them caught my eye. I saw GOLD (Rangold) first and noticed that it was pushing 100. Then I noticed AEM (AgNico Eagle) and thought it looked noticeably higher, too. I pulled up charts and saw that they are both at 6-month highs. Wait a minute here. Hold on just a second. Isn't it curious that two, top miners would be moving to new 6-month highs while the metals are still stuck in a trading range?

The last time GOLD was near 100 was last March when gold was near 1700. The last time AEM was $46 was last November, when gold was close to 1750. What does this mean? Beats the crap out of me! But seriously...this could be phenomena specific to these could be just another sign of the impending resurgence and rally in the price of the metals.

The next question should be: Do any of the other miners look like this? Well, not really. I did find two of our old favorites that are perking up a bit following recent earnings "disappointments" and need to be watched.

And the HUI itself is looking better. I can't give an ALL CLEAR yet but...if the HUI can keep rolling higher and post a few closes over 460...there may finally be reason for optimism in the mining sector.

And, of course, any mention if the term "HUI" here in Turdland comes with the obligatory posting of the SMOKING HOT Carrie Underwood singing about it. (Neo-turdites should know that, to my partially-deaf left ear, "undo it" sounds like "the hui".) (And I'll never understand what she sees in that meathead hockey player.)

Carrie Underwood - Undo It (Official Music Video)

OK, after I wipe off the cold sweat in which I suddenly find myself drenched, it's back to business. In an absolutely stunning development, the metals surged this morning at the open, only to be CAPPED ONCE AGAIN near 1620 and 28.25. Though I know many of you are getting sick of this crap and are dying to see the metals break out, you must remain patient. Fundamentally, gold and silver are extremely strong and, even when left to their own devices, are poised to eventually break out. ( But, screw that. I don't want to wait much longer so maybe we can begin forcing the issue next week. Until then, here are graphic representations of our current predicament.

And I'm not sure which of these two stories make me feel more nauseous. You'll likely read the NYT story before heading off to barf and then return to watch the video before getting sick again. First up, all of the conniving, criminal thieves at MFingGlobal are apparently set to walk free. Hmmm, I've got an idea. What do you say you and I start an investment firm where we take client money and use it to place huge, extremely risky trades. Then, when it all breaks down and the clients lose their money (which they were told was "safe" and "segregated"), we simply laugh it off as "porous risk controls" and walk away. How do you think that might work out for us? Maybe just a bit differently than it has for the criminal Corzine and his merry band of politically-connected, reprehensible outlaws? And don't forget that just last week, your Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals established as precedent that the theft of client funds is now completely legal. God Bless the U.S.A.!

And then there's this. I found this video on ZH last night. It is a time-lapse progression of the ownership makeup of the U.S. treasury market. Note that, in 2003, the Fed had a nearly even ownership across the curve. Watch then how this progresses. Now, the Fed is nearly out of short-term treasuries but they have come to completely dominate everything with a maturity of 3 years to 30 years where they own as much as 70% of the market! Simply amazing. And disgusting! This is America, land of the free and home of the brave where capitalism and free markets create productivity by equitably deciding who wins and who loses. NOT!!!

Fed vs. Private Sector Treasury Holdings

Listen up, you witch. Your days are numbered. We're onto you and soon you and all of your monkeys will be sent scurrying into exile. Perhaps you will be lucky and be allowed the fate of that goon, Corzine. Perhaps not. In the end, it matters little. All that does matter is that the game is ending and you are going to lose.

Drago: You Will Lose


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2012 - 12:11pm

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:14pm

Must. Cap. 28.20




Aug 17, 2012 - 12:16pm

Must. Hold. 1620




Barth Vader Monedas
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:18pm

that's sick

Kill a few more miners .... please !

That is just not funny, i hope you meant it funny.

go and tell their families and co-workers

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:20pm


That's incredibly beautiful!

I want one. I think we'd all like one....or two....

How about it 'peeps'? Consider what I said in that 50/50 post up above

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:21pm
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:22pm
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:26pm

platinum is smoking...

not sure what's going on with Platinum but its running up crazy today.

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:29pm
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:32pm
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:32pm

Up, up and away...

Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Sep 2012


Crude chart at MW... Aug. 17, 2012, 12:03 p.m. EDT

Oil turns higher as reserve talk ‘debunked’

By cassis[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Claudia Assis) and mkitchen[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Michael Kitchen), MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures reversed course Friday, rising on optimism about the U.S. economy and as investors turned skeptical the U.S. government could be readying the release of some of its oil reserves...


These are the lyrics that the bubble blowers on Wall St whistle to... Do we live in the age of..... ?
Katie Rose
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:35pm

@ CA Lawyer and WA State ruling on MERS

I am embarrassed by posting this here, but for some reason am unable to send you a private PM.

I'm way too busy to read through the comments at this time. It is harvest time here at the farm. So I don't know if this has been commented on yesterday or today.

A friend called and stated that yesterday the WA State Supreme Court ruled against MERS being a legal beneficiary of the notes on WA State Deeds of Trust. They also ruled that BOA's ReCon Trust is not a legal Trustee and can not foreclose on WA State Notes.

Both cases were remanded from Federal Courts to the WA State Supreme Court. This was a WA State Supreme Court ruling.

I'm writing because I have a friend who has been battling BOA over his mortgage for a few years. He is uneducated but courageous and a righteous man in every sense of the word. Kinda like David going up against Goliath. He is a contractor who has watched his business and livelihood be destroyed by the EE and the crooked banks.

He wants to go to the Title Company and demand that MERS be taken off his Deed of Trust as beneficiary.

Any thoughts?

Sorry this is so disjointed, but I am soooo far behind this AM. I have alfalfa being delivered, have to milk still, have peas to pick and freeze, etc., etc.

I bet the whole board would love to hear your thoughts on this ruling.

Thanks for all that you have shared with us so far about this huge fraudulent mess!

Katie Rose

Lamenting Laverne
Aug 17, 2012 - 12:37pm

@ DPH - 50/50 draw

What does TGIF stand for? And what do you mean by 50/50 draw? Sorry for being clueless.

@all: Please disregard the forum question from last thread. I see Clinky got it covered.

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:38pm


We may be liberal here, but we have a great judges! Good on them!

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:40pm

Brooklyn Deli Clerk's Face Slashed Open For Refusing To Sell Bee

Just damn ridiculous, but it is NY!

The face of Yemeni deli clerk Mutahar Murshed Ali was slashed nearly in two for committing that most grievous of offenses: refusing to "sell" a Colt 45 to a drunk 20 year in exchange for foodstamps (whose usage Zero Hedge readers know, recently returned back to all time highs). Of course, Ali was perfectly in his right to refuse to exchange booze for EBT: we reported recently that "New York would prohibit welfare recipients from spending their tax-funded benefits on cigarettes, alcohol, gambling, and strip clubs under a bill passed overwhelmingly by the state Senate." That however appears to not have bothered the assailant, who nearly cut off the deli vendor's face off in retaliation for not getting the "entitled" quid-pro-handout.

From NY Daily News:"His face almost fell off,” said witness Abdul Bin Ock, 17. "His cheek ripped. There was so much blood. Every time he looks in the mirror, he has to see the same scar the rest of his life," Ock added. The suspect fled the blood-spattered bodega on Broadway near Gates Ave. — and is being hunted by cops. Ali, a married father from Yemen, was rushed to Kings County Hospital, where he received multiple stitches... The slasher "was drunk, falling and stumbling." Prior to the confrontation, Ali said, he saw the man receive cash from an underage girl outside the store. Ali believes the man was planning to buy the beer for the girl — and make money on the deal by using his food stamp card."

In retrospect: cash in exchange for barter in exchange for handout... Not a bad idea for a nationa increasingly reliant on "assured" entitlements for its survival.

As for Ali: did the cut up foreign father and husband file for immediate disability benefits (for which he is ineligible)? "A shaken-up Ali returned to the store hours later."

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:52pm

LL ~ 50/50 idea

TGIF = Thank God/Goodness It's Friday. No TFMR or PM related acronym involved this time.

The 50/50 idea to raise founds was discussed here...

I think if those that are interested could include it into their subscription or donation that it wouldn't be considered gambling and it would essentially amount to TF giving away the item(s) like we have done with BHY's and the Au/Ag closing price guesses and not us gambling or betting on them. And probably a whole heck of a lot easier to keep track of as he would be the person just picking a slip of paper, period.

No closing price guess lists to keep track of. It appears to be a headache from what I can see.

Aug 17, 2012 - 12:57pm

29.05 by September 21, 43.00 by March 21?

Lowest 5 points on the BullionVault chart (12 hourly closes) in the last couple of months (supportive curve):

26.39 on 6/28

26.70 on 7/12

27.00 on 7/24

​27.21 on 8/02

27.69 on 8/15

Plotting these: the result is upward curving. It is clearly a single consistent curve. I recognise this pattern from swing trading long ago: the bottom slowly grinds into an upward curve as fundamental buying gradually overwhelms downward momos etc. Tops are often flat, representing some kind of resistance. When accompanied by very poor sentiment it's a gift. The poor sentiment after a downtrend means that people interpret it like a deadly weak upleg on an Elliot chart, and the slowness of the curve does not set off many technical indicators.

​Simplest polynomial extrapolated to 21 September, the end of the period mentioned by our favourite Turd gives 29.05. ​Not sure whether that represents hot and explosive, but it would set a few synapses clicking and tongues wagging.

​Another 180 days to encompass the winter season through to the usual seasonal high spot takes the same curve to 43. Not the instant riches many expect, but roughly concordant with the first winter of positive action after the 2008 crash. Remembering that the worst human economic foible is the tendency to extrapolate. And that one should never mention an event and a date in the same sentence. Hence the question mark.

​PS. 27.63 at today's close renders the whole thing linear (and therefore useless/bearish).

This is the unbearable fragility of a bottom.

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:14pm

Good stuff

Nice job.

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:18pm

Turd- Policy Question

Hey TF, I was wondering if you have any stated policy regarding members of TTM discussing what we hear there on the comments here at TFMR- I was going to prepare a post mentioning something you discussed yesterday, but realized I didn't know if I was crossing a line or not.

Could you please let us know what your policy is in that regard? Just want to be sure I am not stepping on toes or giving away content that I shouldn't. Thanks.

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:21pm


TF agnico and randgold have both had big problems during this year long consolidation (agnico with Goldex being closed and randgold being in Mali where there was a coup) - so are rallying back from especially oversold conditions. This doesn't challenge your premise of them being an indicator, just a fwiw.

ratioarbitrage TF
Aug 17, 2012 - 1:27pm

Re: Good stuff

Thanks Turd. Yurragennelman.

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:27pm

This is just like a bad dream

Corzine should be in jail, but what is he doing instead? Trying to steal more money!

The Doc
Aug 17, 2012 - 1:30pm

Sorry Turd, forgot to post

Sorry Turd, forgot to post Ann Barnhardt's rant for you as requested yesterday.
Rant is an understatement. lol

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:33pm

After the close & Globex/ Hey TF

Let's see what happens afterwards. I like what I'm seeing right now on a Friday at the close here.

No smack down as of yet and the 'caps' in place right now seem positive going into next week if they stay close to it. The possible smallish FUBM after 4:00 p.m. will speak about sentiment.


TF....I'm not trying to be overbearing about this (truthfully ) but would like to see if anyone is interested in the 'draw' thing. If you can clear $300-$500 extra week (or more$$$) that didn't previously exist, the monthly benefit seems significant to consider.

The site is slow right now it seems (comment wise) but it's Friday and the market is still sideways. I'll get input tonight and over the weekend about this.

Would you consider putting out a post with this link (below) from my earlier post and ask for input from everyone? They listen to you and I think I'm probably on quite a few IU's (I understand why/familiarity breeds comtempt/no problem with that from me) and they'll see your post/my post and they'll pay attention to it or show their interest or not. Then we'll both know.

Hopefully a BIG number shows up that is too big to ignore, revenue potential wise. Thanks for just considering this. I'll completely drop it if no one is interested.

But if it's overwhelming...

Here's the link...

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:33pm

MK on AJ

Max Keiser on Pumpkinhead's show right now talking gold reserves, silver, Soros, China, corruption, etc..

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:36pm

Recent Platinum market action and the miner strike

You know that whole platinum action is a diversion in my honest opinion.

Platinum is not the jewelry of choice. It's like diamonds - the ancients did not consider it 'money' and the moderns will not put it in Ft Knox. The Egyptians did not even know platinum. It is a relatively new element in human history over the last century.

Platinum is needed for EPA mandated catalytic converters. When cars go green/electric, platinum will quickly lose it's luster.

And, there are many more rare metals on the period table which won't be used as currency.

Silver on the other hand is both money and necessary for modern human industrial needs.

Only SILVER and GOLD are specifically listed in the US Constitution for payment of debt (money).

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:41pm

Pussy riot?

Seems like there's just never enough to go around.

wax off

MOSCOW — A Moscow judge sentenced three members of the provocative punk band Pussy Riot to two years in prison on hooliganism charges on Friday following a trial seen around the world as an emblem of Russia's intolerance of dissent.

The trial inspired a wave of small but raucous protests across Europe and North America in support of the feminist rockers, who have been dubbed prisoners of conscience by Amnesty International. Hundreds of Pussy Riot supporters waiting outside the Moscow courtroom chanted "down with the police state" when the sentence was announced. Dozens were detained, including several opposition leaders.


Aug 17, 2012 - 1:52pm

Think Pink

Ann has the nicest accessories.

Aug 17, 2012 - 1:53pm


Any idea how long it will be down?

Aug 17, 2012 - 2:02pm

It's killin me

GL is lining up a different merchant processor for new subscriptions so we can't take any new members until it's set up.

I had hoped that it would be this week but I guess not. I'll keep you posted.

Pining: While I try to share some of the same stuff here, there's not much point of a "paywall" if we share everything.

DPH: Just not sure I want to go down that path. I'll keep you posted.


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