Gut Bomb

Thu, Aug 16, 2012 - 12:05pm

Having only just now recovered from an early morning trip to The Waffle House, I'm ready to tackle the day.

First up, it seems like it has been so long since I've:

  1. Made a short-term prediction
  2. Been right

That I feel compelled to tout this one:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 15, 2012 - 7:50pm.
Kinda gotten out of the habit of making short term predictions but here goes.
I think the metals look to move higher overnight/tomorrow. Crude is currently basing above the old double top at 94.25 and the grains are stronger, too. Eventually this will translate onto the short term metals charts that look increasingly positive. A move through the 100-day MA in gold (near 1612) would send price back toward 1620 and beyond.

Let's just see now if gold can get above 1620-25 and if silver can finally get through 28.20. The algos will likely game it back down lower later today but we'll see. I spoke with Winston again this morning and he assured me that demand for physical metal remains "robust" in London and that "every dip below 1600" is being met with increased orders in size. As this physical market continues to create a rising floor in the paper market (see the higher lows on the charts below), eventually this buying pressure will burst the caps at the top of the now 100-day price ranges. WHEN that happens, momentum-chasing algos will flip long and we will accelerate to the upside. This is inevitable and only a matter of time.

Helping things along is crude. Look closely at the chart below and you'll see that we are simply continuing a pattern of breakouts and consolidations that stretches back to late June. As it appears that we have begun another breakout period, the next logical price target appears to be $98-99 before another period of consolidation. IF trend continues, there's no reason not to expect $98 crude at a minimum by late next week.

Just a couple of news items to review. First here's a story on David Walker and the fine work he is doing. I've met David before and he is a very nice gentleman. A true non-partisan, he couldn't care less about who wins the upcoming election, he just wants to see something done regarding the debt and deficits.

And then these two ZH stories regarding gold demand. These stories add credence to what I mentioned above about global, physical demand and the whole "China making a new currency" idea that we discussed yesterday.

And this is a really good, Chris Martenson article that everyone should take the time to read:

Lastly, I feel I must ask you again to keep the comments section of this post as close to on-topic as possible. As we near election season, I know that emotions are high (and getting higher) and it's easy to steer off onto a tangent. Therefore, please try to keep this discussion here focused on the metals and the economy. Discussions about prepping, politics, guns, ammo and insurrection must be taken to the forums. Always keep in mind that this is a public site. While it might be fun for you to type up and post your wildest thoughts regarding the future, you are not the one at risk of seeing black sedans pull up in front of your house. I am. So, again, please try to keep this main page focused on metals and take all other, coincident discussions to the forums. Muchas Grassyass.

It's already noon EDT so I'm going to go ahead and send this now. I hope everyone has a great day. Clearly, this week was not the "explosive, historic" one but next week holds promise. Be right, sit tight and keep stacking.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Silver Alert
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:07pm


<ashamed>Hey, I always thought that first stuff was silly. But I couldn't resist when the opportunity was staring at me. </ashamed off>

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:09pm

Thurds the man

Thurds the man

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:12pm

Worth a stop at KWN and Dan Norcini.

We see the baked cake confirmation this am @Philly. And Turds above.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:13pm

In light of the new renewed spirit of the community

My personal Fatwah against the firsters has been ceased. I will tell you that 75 poor souls made it onto my ignore list. All but 6 were taken off.

It feels like the end of the consolidation is close at hand, and with a renewed fighting spirit at this site, we can all enjoy the fruits together.


Aug 16, 2012 - 12:14pm
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:16pm

And so it begins...

Silver Hoarding: Investor Holdings Spike to Record

Analysts and investors are becoming increasingly bullish on silver as the summer winds down. As central banks around the globe are expected to bolster growth via new QE and related monetary policies, a silver rally appears to be inevitable.

For the past three months, silver held in exchange-traded products has consistently climbed its way up to a valuation of $16.2 billion, according to Bloomberg's data.

While hedge funds remain the least bullish in nearly four years, one has to ask if this is merely an attempt to control silver prices in a time when nearly everyone else is assuming that the allure of precious metals will only increase in the months and years to come...

If the Federal Reserve does follow through with further quantitative easing, all we have to do is rewind back to the years 2008-2011 and learn from the recent history to know what will happen to silver prices.

From December 2008 to June 2011, precious metals prices tripled on behalf of two solid rounds of quantitative easing.

Imagine what a third dose of easing will do to consumer mentality and the price of silver and gold. It's an unprecedented event for sure, but the prices have nowhere to go but up – and they're expected to do so rather sharply.

From Bloomberg:

While the metal is trading 44 percent below the 31-year high of $49.845 set in April 2011, it averaged $30.37 since the start of January, on track for the second-highest annual level after last year’s $35.27.

And hedge funds are likely to get more bullish – more than doubling their net-long position or betting on higher prices, to 9,323 futures and options in the two weeks to Aug. 7 – and as economic pessimism abounds silver demand continues to increase.

Historically, silver has been a volatile metal, but investors shouldn't be swayed by the price swings too terribly. Generally speaking, silver investor confidence is reaching all-time-highs.

“People like me who have tremendous confidence in silver and are invested in the market see it rising once the easing begins,” said Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management, who helps oversee about $1 billion of assets. “I expect an acceleration in the fear trade. Most of the hedge funds who sold will be back once the market gathers momentum.”

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:18pm

Spectacular day for mining and metals

Powerful moves in my IRA portfolio today. If this is the slow start to what Turd is predicting, I better get me a 5-point harness. GGN, PPP, UGLD, USLV, NUGT, and my winner of the day, GSV. I have a big chunk locked on the Barkerville saga, yet still up 3.7% today.

I could really use a speedy and at worst neutral resolution of Barkerville, though.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:19pm

Change or Change

Silver up

Gold up

Dollar down

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:21pm

Black sedans

"you are not the one at risk of seeing black sedans pull up in front of your house. I am."

So true,

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:23pm

Silver Hammering on the Trapdoor

Kinda looks to me like SILVER is hammering hard this morning on that trapdoor that the cartel has in place to keep it in the basement. Turd called it - yesterday - nice!

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:23pm

Canadian MintChip

20120405 MintChip cashless economy
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:24pm


From a cursory glance at your and some other charts TF, it looks like gold is not quite to the traditional breakout point of the chart formation and have the chains holding it back busted.

Silver is closer but it has a smaller range it can waffle in until gold is unchained and let loose.

Seems to fit the calendar with in about 10 days we'll all be talking about first day notices and then the traditional BLSBS smack downs. Not to mention the upcoming republican convention where as we all know a big contingent of freedom lovers will be gathering to defeat Robomny so they will likely try to extend the cap until then.

But the end game is in sight and our favorite metals will soon be unchained and unleashed in an unforgiving way for how they've been treated.

Big Buffalo
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:25pm


I think most already have this information but I'll type in anyhow. Gold demand is down, mostly caused by India, and basically their deflating value of their currency. However, the Central Banks have been adding their gold holdings since 2008, compared to being net sellers for the previous 15 years.

Turd: thanks for the charts, I really enjoy them and they DO tell a story. (Can I still make fun of FB on main st?)

Jan Roos
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:28pm

Silver Alert

It feels good doesn't it? I hated the first thing until I got it. lol

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:31pm
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:32pm

Probably Black SUV's rather than sedans


(well, maybe a chevy volt, or an Obamacar)

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:32pm

Those two particular ZH stories appear... be remarkably similar.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:34pm


In case the slight humor of my previous post obfuscated the message, just wanted to point out that you linked the same ZH story twice in your post there.

Dyna mo hum
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:37pm

Black sedans

Some of the black sedan folks are a little more friendly and caring than you know. Some are downright nice while others will do anything for a paycheck.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:38pm

Ebay is a great indicator... to what people are "willing" to pay for PM's, go to ebay, type silver bullion, and take a look. The majority of bids are going for between $33-36 w/o shipping. To most people, these prices are a joke compared to spot. Yet multiple people are still willing to pay between 17% and 20% over spot. To me this is another indicator that the crimex price is far far far undervalued...

Dagney Taggart
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:38pm


Even Turd could outrun (literally) that POS with 2 monster boxes strapped to his back.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:41pm

Stop the manipulation!

or i'm gonna sink

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:44pm

What's the topic?

What is the topic of this thread? Not complaining, just asking...

Respectfully submitted.


Aug 16, 2012 - 12:46pm

Aaaaaaaand, it gone!

Southpark was a couple years ahead of the fund "vaporization" meme. They also had an episode a year ago in which the internet went down and people voluntarily went to FEMA camps just to they could surf the net.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:46pm

interesting tidbit from Santa's site:

"If you consider that there has been an average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq Theatre of operations during the past 22 months, and a total of 2112 deaths, that gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers.

The firearm death rate in Washington , DC is 80.6 per 100,000 for the same period. That means you are about 25 per cent more likely to be shot and killed in the US capital which has some of the strictest gun control laws in the U.S. , than you are in Iraq .

Conclusion: The U.S. should pull out of Washington… but, only if you want them to be safer. Otherwise leave them there, and let nature run its course.

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:47pm

Found it. Thanks


"Therefore, please try to keep this discussion here focused on the metals and the economy"

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:49pm


I don't get it......

Aug 16, 2012 - 12:50pm

Faceplant lost...

...55.49% of it's value in less than 3 months. Wonder how many people lost money on that one...? Pray that everyone that was considering buying that I told IPO stands for "It's Probably Overpriced" listened.

Stacking is the only way to go these days, gonna go add some more Pre-65 coins to the collection

Dagney Taggart
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:51pm


The camps probably have their own power and internet.

Dyna mo hum babaganoush2307
Aug 16, 2012 - 12:52pm


If you are are a careful bidder you can stay below $33 with free shipping. Not the best price but no gasoline burned on my part and in my case fuel cost is a deal killer.


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