Wed, Aug 8, 2012 - 2:58pm

No, I'm not changing the name of the site but if I crank out a few more posts like this one, I may have to think about it.

So here comes the chart dump. I hope you're ready. Presented without much additional verbiage since I have already written most of my thoughts onto the charts themselves.


We are very close to the breakout. All we need is a little shove. Something to squeeze shorts and start the momentum to the upside. Gold has clearly bottomed and is trending higher. A break of the "Battle Royale" line near 1670 and IT'S ON. Silver looks much the same. The original Battle Royale line is now somewhere between 28 and 28.50. And you wonder why silver seems stuck just north of $28? The BIG FIGHT will be at Battle Royale II, which is currently near $32. Through there and it's off to the races, once again.


We've watched The Pig rally now for what seems like an eternity. From 73 in April 2011 to 84 last month. Keep your fingers crossed but the charts are starting to signal that the move may finally be over.


As discussed yesterday, there are all kinds of factors affecting the crude oil market, the topping Pig being just one of them. Crude bottomed in late June and has since moved steadily higher in $5 increments. Having now bested $93, could $98 be next? Probably...


The grains present a mixed picture. The soybean chart looks like crap and this is likely due to the outside possibility that rain may come and allow for a salvageable bean crop. We'll see. Corn, on the other hand, has double-topped at 8.25 (cash) but is putting in a series of higher lows as it consolidates around $8. This chart sure seems to foreshadow a burst higher but maybe I'm just seeing things. The crop report that comes out on Friday will tell the tale.

Just three homework assignments for you. First, Jeff Nielson has published an insightful piece that you should take a few moments to read:

Our pal, Mike Krieger, posted this item earlier today regarding the deteriorating conditions in Spain. Yikes!

And if you get a minute, please watch this "60 Minutes" expose from last March. It alarmed me at the time and, when I first heard of a possible, second California refinery fire this morning, it immediately came back to mind. Note that the tone of the report is not IF the Stuxnet virus comes home to roost, it's instead WHEN. 

Lastly, I think I'll take the day off tomorrow. The final golf "major" of the year is at Kiawah Island, South Carolina on a course that I had the opportunity to play recently. I plan to kick back and enjoy watching Tiger et al struggle and fight to conquer the links and the wind. I'll try to post something later tonight to give you something to discuss tomorrow. Until then, be relaxed and joyous. We are winning.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 8, 2012 - 3:06pm



silver foil hat
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:09pm

TURD! (repost from last thread...)

"Steve Adamske: "“we will decline to comment because the commission has not decided a course of action on this matter.” Since he is the official CFTC spokesman, then that is the official word thus far."

Maybe it's me, but reading too far into this statement could be interpreted as they have found manipulation has occurred, but as of now, they have not decided on the course of action ("penalty") to be sanctioned.

If the report is going to show 'no manipulation' (sfh coughs *bullshit*) then the statement that the commission has not decided on a course of action is extraneous, as no action or sanction would be needed.


Aug 8, 2012 - 3:09pm

Frequently I'll be at the

Frequently I'll be at the office and Instead of working, I keep hitting the Refresh button in order to read Turd's Singularly insightful and original Thoughts on gold and silver. Thanks, TF!

(edit: D'oh!)

I Run Bartertown
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:12pm

Rumbling from the Base

Obama That I Used To Know - Gotye Parody
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:13pm

Looking forward to PGA

Should be a lot of humility in the air at Kiawah. A good darkhorse pick is my homeboy David Toms.

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:15pm

Turd I Love You Man - Happy Golfing

I think WilliamBanzai7 gets credit for this one . . . .

QE to infinity
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:16pm

Top ten 

Top ten smiley

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:17pm

It wouldn't suprise me....

If the crop report is massaged like the BLSBS to make things look better than they really are.


Island Teal
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:19pm

Thank You TF


Great Chart work - Have a good time tomorrow - thanks for all that you do

Enjoy some wonderful music:

Video unavailable
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:21pm

Top Ten!

Nice coast to coast coverage Turd.

Also, enjoy the daily podcasts. I appreciate markets aren't moving much, grains excepted, but it is nice to hear a steady voice in these times where we (at least I) feel like we are in the eye of the storm.

For those worried that the TFMR would be adversely affected, I don't think so. Seems to still have the intelligent and freewheeling posts. From men and women with (mostly) good will toward each other. My non-scientific impression is that more newbies are joining in (not claiming to be an oldbie myself).

For those worried that you are grossly missing out on the daily podcasts, IMHO the paid subscription expands on the TFMR site- perhaps 3-4 times more commentary that what is written. I think it is a good value for the reasons above, and is a good learning tool for me.


Aug 8, 2012 - 3:34pm

@bsong and karankawa

Yes, agreed, good synopsis. I, too, think he is close to correct. However, there is an anomaly that he doesn't discuss--he said he thinks U.S. still has some dumping-silver. I don't . . . I still wonder why China is allowed to take tons and tons of western gold off the shelf. Why would the U.S. and other western nations allow this? In my view, it must be a quid pro quo wherein China dumps silver into the market in exchange for the right to buy cheap gold. I recall a Fekete or Butler article years ago, wherein the big silver short behind BS/JPM was possibly China as opposed to U.S. government. China was also on a silver standard, and went off it in 1935. Supposedly, it had a huge silver stockpile which may have been surreptitiously used to quell the silver market, by dumping physical whenever needed, after western hordes were gone. Time will tell. The paper world is crashing around us. The big ace has yet to be played.

Repost from previous thread.

Dagney Taggart
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:35pm


What really gets a girl in the mood!

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:39pm

Dec options OTM

I have to say for a number of reasons I bought some also--but not that far OTM. We have the election, geopolitical, Europe, debt ceiling, seasonality, just to name a few things which could propel metals.

Money By Trading
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:40pm

Ugly Miners Candle

GDX is fixing to put in one hideous daily candle. Don't shoot the messenger.

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:42pm


"Why would the U.S. and other western nations allow this?"

I think the gold is being sold, er stolen. Legally of course. Why did the BOE sell half their gold under $275?

silver foil hat
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:44pm

Turd and others may remember a post from me last August or so...

regarding option volume on GLD...

Look at what I found today...

These are for November 2012.... expire after the election...

212.00 GLD121117C00212000 0.31 0.00 0.07 0.16 10 10
213.00 GLD121117C00213000 0.25 0.00 0.07 0.16 7 7
215.00 GLD121117C00215000 0.17 0.00 0.09 0.14 25,005 25,005
216.00 GLD121117C00216000 0.27 0.00 0.05 0.14 14 14
217.00 GLD121117C00217000 0.26 0.00 0.05 0.14 14 14

Someone's expecting some volatility in gold spot within the next few months...

Nothing remarkable on Silver I can find (for today anyway), other than a small spike in OI and volume around $39.00 for October expiration.

37.00 SLV121020C00037000 0.06 0.00 0.04 0.06 608 9,111
38.00 SLV121020C00038000 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.05 578 19,644
39.00 SLV121020C00039000 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.05 1,382 4,347
40.00 SLV121020C00040000 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04 644 15,096
41.00 SLV121020C00041000 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.04 646 2,511

edit: that GLD volume represents an approx $425,000 cost in expiring options at the price of 17 cents each.

(For those who don't understand options, they trade at 100x the cost per option share. The contract of 100 shares = 1 option. In this case, the buyer of the 25,005 option contracts is betting the price of (Gold) will go higher and rather quickly for these options to appreciate in value. It does not necessarily mean that (Gold) will be priced at or above around $2,600 per ounce in November, but that the price will appreciate so fast that the algos will assume so based on the trend and rapid increase in price, and by extension, the contract to buy GLD at $215.00 per share cost less than the price at the end of the contract in November).

silver foil hat
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:47pm

just refreshed kitco...

never seen this during trading hours.... 3 out of 4

very strange.

Buy gold Gold Charts










Buy silver Silver Charts










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Aug 8, 2012 - 3:51pm

Thanks Turd!

From Turd's link:

The Code of Hammurabi, more than 3,700 years ago, stipulated that any Mesopatamian who violated the terms of a financial contract – including the futures contracts that were commonly used in commodities trading in Babylon – “shall be put to death as a thief.”

In medieval Catalonia, a banker who went bust wasn’t merely humiliated by town criers who declaimed his failure in public squares throughout the land; he had to live on nothing but bread and water until he paid off his depositors in full. If, after a year, he was unable to repay, he would be executed…Bankers who lied about their books could also be subject to the death penalty.

In Florence during the Renaissance, the Arte del Cambio…made the cheating of clients punishable by torture…

But financial crimes weren’t merely punished; they were stigmatized…


This shows how utterly out of control the current bankers and markets have become and how little punishment they receive if any at all. The contrast is mind blowing!

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:53pm

Hard Purchasing Decision...

Anybody purchased from SD Bullion before over at SilverDoctors? Apparently they sell silver as well as have connections with the mullet? Looks like they have a pretty good sale going on- advertising .10/oz off any purchase over 500ounces, and .15/oz off any purchase over 1,000 ounces.
I calculate that makes silver buffaloes .84 over spot, and silver eagles 2.54 over spot.

Seems like a pretty good deal if they're trustworthy, i've always used apmex and they currently have buffalos for 1.49 over and eagles for 2.99 over if you buy 500.

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:53pm

@ silver foil hat

re: the gold chart.

If I were a true cynic I'd say all the black boxes have be properly prepared for the election and the results are already known by some . That said, has a bet has been placed in favor of big brown chunks (can't say "turds", can I? wink ) hitting the oscillating device shortly thereafter?

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:55pm

Silver Foil

That does look suspicious. I'm looking to back up the truck before Spain comes crashing down. Won't be long now....

ancientmoney Karankawa
Aug 8, 2012 - 3:56pm



Why would the U.S. Treasury all of a sudden start "auditing" Federal Reserve gold? Especially when the FR owns no gold--only certificates issued by the Treasury. No, it's a show--to show the sheeple that yes, by golly, we still own the gold (taken from the people in 1933).

Some commentators say the Chinese want gold to back the yuan, for market supremacy. I don't think so. I think the elites worldwide have come to an agreement, that to keep the current financial infrastructure intact and to keep the elite in positions of power, the unpayable debt must be counterbalanced against something, that something being gold.

Once the gold is where the players want it to be, a new wrinkle will be announced worldwide. Governments will announce they are putting a bid out for gold that will rise to a level needed to easily handle the debt they've created. Gold could go to FOFOA's $55,000/oz. or to whatever level in fiat currencies they feel will work.

I am not sure where silver fits into this equation. I do think silver will be repriced much higher, just not sure if governments will bid for it as well, or if marketplace will do it. Of course, as I've said before, paper gold and silver will be relegated to the trash-heap before this happens. So, GLD, SLV, futures, etc. will be terminated at or about the same time this big ace is played.

Aug 8, 2012 - 3:59pm

Food Want. Take It!

This is from an area in Spain with an unemployment rate of 40% Youth unemployment over 60%

Aug 8, 2012 - 4:01pm

Thank you

And by the way, I think we finally have the merchant provider link fixed so we are officially re-open for business.

Aug 8, 2012 - 4:12pm

Hey Turd...dont forget........

Turd said: "We've watched The Pig rally now for what seems like an eternity. From 73 in April 2011 to 84 last month. Keep your fingers crossed but the charts are starting to signal that the move may finally be over."

​YOU GOTTA STRENGTHEN THE DOLLAR BEFORE YOU "DILUTE" THE DOLLAR........because, you know....appearances are important. We be a buncha suckas..........again and again.

Aug 8, 2012 - 4:14pm
Aug 8, 2012 - 4:16pm
Aug 8, 2012 - 4:21pm

Lookin good Billy Ray

Yet I don't think we have topped in the Pig just yet.......maybe we get a short term drop for a few weeks or so, but rest assured the FUBAR which is the Euro will raise it's ugly head again soon which will IMO be Pig positive higher than the 84 we saw.

Aug 8, 2012 - 4:23pm

Just in from Bix

Are The Metal Markets On A COMPUTER PROGRAMMED LOCK DOWN? You be the judge. Here's a screen shot of PM prices at 15:44 today... What are the odds of having NO CHANGE in all these metals at the exact same time?! Gold was at 0.00 as well. The last time the market riggers were so obviously sending a message like this was when gold kept closing at $666 in July 2007 before running up over $900/oz by January. One day, very soon. The computers will turn on each other and it will be GAME OVER for this rigged casino. Until then.....we WAIT. May the Road you choose be the Right Road. Bix Weir
Aug 8, 2012 - 4:25pm


So a guy is driving down the road after purchasing a bottle of wine when he spots an Indian hitchhiking. He pulls over and offers the Indian a ride. The Indian gets in the car and sees the brown bag on the seat and asks the driver, "What's in the bag?"

The driver says, "It's a bottle of wine I got for my wife."

The Indian says, "Good Trade!"

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