Tame, Tedious and Tiresome Tuesday

142
Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 12:10pm

At least it's not "Terrible"...at least not yet. The only thing of interest, so far, was when gold had the audacity to approach 1620. The banks quickly beat it back and have seemingly decided to take the rest of the day off. Let's see if we can find something else to talk about.

First of all, the metals. We've had a couple of good days in a row and a nice little pop this morning. Apparently, that was all that would be allowed for now as gold was suddenly pressing up against 1620. There would appear to be quite a few stops between 1620 and the top of the range so The Cartel appears intent upon keeping a lid on things here. Silver is facing a similar issue. Having rallied over $1 from the Friday lows, it is now back into the very center of its 3-month range. It needs a propellant to shove it through 28.40 and on towards 29 and 30. Let's hope we see some propellant soon.

By far, the most interesting market right now is crude. The chart is compelling and the fundamentals are certainly heating up. For now, The Olympics have distracted the global press so everyone seems to be ignoring the major battles in Syria. For example, bubbling just below the surface is this: https://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/world/54635926-68/syrian-rebels-government-syria.html.csp. Of course, the Iranians aren't too excited about this development and have supposedly issued a warning to the U.S.: https://www.debka.com/article/22250/Iran-threatens-US-Turkey-after-Israel-with-spreading-Syrian-conflict.

You may be wondering why this is so important. Mainly, it's the geo-politics. We have the U.S., NATO, many Arab states and Israel on one side. The Assad Regime, Russia, Iran and even China on the other. First of all, the chances of a miscalculation or accidental escalation are high. All of those ships and aircraft in the same area can be very dangerous.

We'll Be Lucky to Live Through It
Russians don't take a dump, son...

Why is Russia so actively engaged in opposing NATO and supporting not only Syria but Iran? Can they be "talked into" standing down? Not likely. Why? Do you realize that crude oil and natural gas now account for 75% of the value of all Russian exports? Because of this, Russian industry and government (and political stability) is supported almost entirely by the revenue generated by energy exports. To mollify the masses, Putin has recently promised a new Keynesian-style stimulus program that increases government pensions and puts a freeze on domestic gas prices. The estimated "cost" of this is about $200B over the next 5 years. From where will this money come? Oil and gas exports! And it's estimated that the Russians need a crude oil price of at least $150/bbl to be able to meet these obligations. Clearly, the Russians have an interest in not only maintaining the current level of prices for oil and gas, they need to see higher prices, as well. Uh-oh.

So, here's your current daily chart. What was once resistance at $88 has now become stout support. A move through and close above $93.25 will set the stage for a run toward $98 and $100.

And here's a grain update for you. Things are sideways so far this week as the markets anticipate a major crop report on Friday. Soybeans, which still have time to be partially-rescued if decent rains can develop in the next 10 days, have been under significant pressure now for over two weeks and are close to completing a 50% retracement of the move from June 1 to July 20. This retracement will be complete near $15.50/bushel and that level would close the final gap on the chart, too. Let's see if we can get there. Corn, where most of the drought damage has already been done, is consolidating in a pennant ahead of the Friday report. It's poised to go either direction. Which direction will it be?

Finally, just a few random items. First, our pal Jim Quinn has typed out another, excellent two-parter. Both segments are well worth your time:

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=37087

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=38476

And because you likely have this stuck in your head now, I present this as a public service:

Billy Joel - A Matter of Trust (Official Video)

(Boyohboy, that takes me back. Maybe 1986 or 1987. A young Turd wooing a future girlfriend. Wow, where does the time go? Anyway, the Great Liberty Devito was on drums for Billy back then. He sure is fun to watch. Timeless music and timeless memories.)

OK, back to work. This story from ZH is well-written and, though it's a rehash of much of the same stuff we talk about daily here in Turdistan, I present it to you nonetheless:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-has-perfect-moment-kill-dollar-arrived

And lastly, my pal Big Red in Richmond sent along this chart yesterday. For me, it's a visual illustration of The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The accumulated debt is now so great that additional dollars of deficit spending are having a decreasing level of "effectiveness". If I were Romney (and I thank The Good Lord that I'm not), I'd publish this chart every day. I'd hand out pocket-sized versions at all my rallies and I'd make it the "poster child" for all of O'bottom's keynesian failures.

Alright, that's it. As I go to publish, I see that the metals are stable at 1612 and 28.15. That's OK. We'll live to play another day. Crude, though, is rolling and breaking out at $93.60. Again, IF it can close above $93.25 and not fall back below tomorrow, I would expect the next move to take it toward $98 and maybe even $100. Watch closely. Have a great day!

TF

p.s. Here's a little more Billy Joel for you. As a bonus, this video comes from the 100%-outstanding, 1980s television series "Moonlighting". Any Turdites too young to recall Moonlighting should check it out on Youtube or Hulu today!

Moonlighting - Billy Joel - Big man on Mulberry Street

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  142 Comments

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blue bird
Aug 14, 2012 - 11:00am

Open Season on Turd

Thanks again Turd for all you do. Take heart that you are brave enough to create and continue a site where open discussion and opposing view points can be expressed. It would be nice if those who comment would listen to the information provided (the podcast) before posting. To all others the operative words from my perspective are 'due diligence'. As with any investment, this site is another source of information. Do your own due diligence before making a decision on where to put your hard earned money. Consider the information and opinions and the source(s), then make up your own mind, investigate on your own, and act accordingly.

Cobalt Silver
Aug 9, 2012 - 12:15pm

Thank God for Specialists.

What the hell is a werbsite developer?

ClinkinKYAmericanFreedomfighter
Aug 8, 2012 - 10:31am

Pretty funny that a guy with the nick "AmericanFreedom"...

...would be complaining about VOLUNTARY donations to a website.

AmericanFreedomfighter
Aug 8, 2012 - 9:52am

Wow, that would be awesome!

I wish those stats were accurate. I'd sell this fucker in a heartbeat and put everything into silver.

Site traffic is down, actually. Currently only doing about 20,000 unique IPs/day and maybe 60,000 pageviews. So, worthoftheweb is only off by a factor of 4.

Currently, the site makes about $75/day from Google during the week. It makes about half that on the weekends. The monthly revenue from Google is usually between $2000 and $3000. Basic expenses of servers and tech support are also usually between $2000 and $3000 so when I "beg for donations", it's always because a little extra revenue is helpful.

AmericanFreedomfighterTF
Aug 8, 2012 - 5:12am

Total bogus!

Do you really think that the readers believe what you are saying? With over 222'000 daily pageviews your site makes OVER 300$ a day just with advertisement (standard return rate for the number of pageviews) PLUS some more because of the donations-button. (https://www.worthofweb.com/website-value/tfmetalsreport.com) I am a werbsite developer and I can't hear your begging for extra donations anymore! You earn about 10'000 bucks per month with the site, and continue begging for donations to "keep the site running". This is pathetic.

Boswell
Aug 8, 2012 - 2:22am

Hey!

Who's in charge of posting "New Thread!"???

I've been staring at this one for an hour or so.

Mumble, grumble, mumble...

question
Aug 8, 2012 - 12:55am

@Puck T. Smith

Lysander Spooner; he should be required reading for anyone who votes; sure had a way with words.

"I have no interest in the US being a "great" country, I would prefer it be a free one." May it come to pass.

tyberious
Aug 8, 2012 - 12:47am

Agreed

"That is not free trade, that is managed trade.'

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

tyberious
Aug 8, 2012 - 12:47am

Free and great

Are synonymous! I fail to see how the Walmarting of America has been positive or beneficial except for the very elite. In any self sustaining society the only products or services that should be acquired outside of that society are those that the society are incapable of producing themselves. WE as a society are INDEED capable of producing everything that we import.

As a personal note, I drive a German car, though I have driven Fords, I actually buy shoes made in the USA, though they are 3 times the price of cheap Chinese made shoes and last 10x as long, I go out of my way to purchase local, USA made or at least European made items. Price equals quality!!! I tend to think that the more cheap crap you have the more cheap crap you buy. But these are individual choices and are not for everyone, but I have the freedom to make that choice, at least for now!

Aug 8, 2012 - 12:39am

Oh, and BTW

The next time I hear someone call NAFTA a free trade agreement my head is going to explode. Free trade can be summed up in one sentence: if I want to buy from or sell to someone in another country I can with no restrictions. Period. NAFTA is almost 800 pages long and it full of you must do this, you may not do that, and then a bazzillion exceptions to those all those rules for special circumstances. That is not free trade, that is managed trade.

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