Your Weekly Podcast

408
Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 1:27pm

A little something different this week. As a change of pace, I'm the one getting interviewed. I spoke yesterday with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney and I think you'll enjoy listening in.

The link to the interview is right here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/turd-ferguson-and-alasdair-macleod-on-the-end-of-the-great-keynesian-experiment.html

But it's also available on Youtube:

Turd Ferguson and Alasdair Macleod on the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment

As mentioned above, the NFP numbers this morning threw nearly everyone for a loop, at least initially. Then, once folks were able to "look under the hood", they discovered that things aren't quite so rosy. ZeroHedge opened the door ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-429000-statistical-jobs) and then Jim Quinn kicked it down ( https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=38358).

Crude oil is really cooking today and must be watched closely next week. I've got the October crude pushing $92 as we head into the close. A move above the highs from late July near $93 and we'll see crude sets its sights upon $100. Obviously, $100 crude would have an impact on the metals.

This week's CoT is going to be very interesting. Once I see the numbers this afternoon, I'll add some thoughts in the comments section of this thread, so please look for that sometime after 3:30 EDT.

Lastly, "Turd's Army" just completed another stellar month under General Maguire's leadership. We know that it can sometimes be a logistical challenge to perfectly mimic Andy's trades and we're working on that. In the meantime, some folks have chosen instead to simply trade in larger size. I found a thread at goldismoney.com where the service is being discussed. Please check it out. (If you're interested, August would be a fine time to consider a trial membership.) https://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?33861-4-month-results-after-using-Andrew-Mcguire-service&p=407494&posted=1#post407494

And here's the link to the service: https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

Lastly, I promised you a wild week this week and it certainly was. Not surprisingly, it turned out almost exactly as we expected. Next week, however, promises to be very exciting as well. I urge you to take the weekend to relax and rest. The summer is getting hotter by the day and you need to be ready for whatever lies ahead.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  408 Comments

The Green Manalishi
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:17am

Confidence

Just wanted to say thanks to Turd for instilling some confidence, I've just bought 4 cruise missiles worth (at 500oz per missile) this morning with my dry powder, and have reserved 2 London Good Delivery bars with my name on them via the Bullionvault.

I know this is against the principle of taking delivery at home - but we have to pay 20% VAT here in Blighty so I am taking the risk.

Got some more dry powder for later.

atarangi
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:32am

The blame game - - -

We are all to blame for this mess. Here we are playing the blame game when our taxes are feeding the monster that is doing the plunder. Take control and do your own thing. Don't let the inadequate fool you into handing over your wealth. Stand up and fight for the advancement of mankind. - - Long live the Turd. Collectivism kills progress. Individualism drives progress.

knavechild
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:51am

Banking Paradigm Demands

Pete Santilli urges patriot leaders to hold emergency summit and restore our constitution (and makes a pretty damned good list of demands regarding what to ratify in the current banking paradigm):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTmfUaUlFtk&feature=g-all-u

ClinkinKY The Green Manalishi
Aug 4, 2012 - 5:58am

@ The Green Manalishi

Man, I misread your post as you having "bought 4 cruise missiles" and quickly scanned my entire posting history to make sure I hadn't pissed you off at some point in the past:)

SRSrocco
Aug 4, 2012 - 6:02am

TURD...GREAT INTERVIEW & THANKS FOR THE KIND WORDS

SILVERCORP METALS Q2 NET INCOME DECLINES 72%

Well, it looks the second quarter is turning out to be a real killer for the miners. SilverCorp Metals just released their Q2 2012 financials, and it was a slaughter. SilverCorp’s net earnings were down 72% since the same quarter last year. This is exactly what I expected as the second quarter of 2011 had the spike to $49 silver.

Also, ore grades fell substantially in the second quarter for SilverCorp. Silver ore grades were down 26% just from the prior year.

If we look at the graph below we can see that SilverCorps Q2 2011 silver ore grades were 303 g/t while their Q2 2012 were only 225 g/t (a 26% decline). Even worse was their lead ore grades. Here we can see that SilverCorp’s lead ore grades fell from 5.5% in Q2 2011 to 3.6% in Q2 2012…. a staggering 34% decline.

These huge declines in ore grades on top of much lower prices paid for silver and base metals, lowered SilverCorps overall total revenues from 69.7 million Q2 2011 to a mere $44.5 million in this present financial report. Thus, second quarter 2012 net income declined a massive 72% yoy from $34.2 million Q2 2011, to only $9.5 million.

I must say, this is much greater loss than I would have thought. Some may think that the huge drop in revenue was due to lower amount of overall mining. However, this is not the case. I don’t have the charts, but I will list the total amount of milled ore from the two different quarters below:

Q2 2011 TOTAL OVERALL PRODUCTION

Total Milled Ore = 182,890 tonnes

Q2 2012 TOTAL OVERALL PRODUCTION

Total Milled Ore = 216,665 tonnes

————————

Q2 2011 YING DISTRICT PRODUCTION

Total Milled Ore = 174,926 tonnes

Q2 2012 YING DISTRIC PRODUCTON

Total Milled Ore = 186,455

——————–

Also, their cost of sales increase 35% yoy as you can see in the highlighted yellow area.

Most of the silver from SilverCorp comes from the Ying District. They have two other smaller mines that produced the remaining ores. Either way, SilverCorp milled more tonnage this quartre than last year, and ended up with much less silver, zinc, and lead. They actually produced more gold.

Amazing…

UPDATE

I wanted to update the post to included the prior quarter results as a comparison. Some may think last year’s results were a bit optimistic due to the extremely high price of silver. Below is the past quarter and how it compares to the present financials and production:

Q1 2012 Financials & Production:

Total Revenue = $44.3 million

Cost of Sales = $14.3 million

Net Income = $14.1 million

Total Milled Ore = 160,184 tonnes

Silver Production = 1,084,000 oz

Lead Production = 14,670,000 lbs

Zinc Production = 2,890,000 lbs

Q2 2012 Financials & Production:

Total Revenue = $44.5 million (no change)

Cost of Sales = $19.0 million (+33%)

Net Income = $9.5 million (-33%)

Total Milled Ore = 216,665 tonnes (+35%)

Silver Production = 1,224,000 oz (+13%)

Lead Production = 13,744,000 lbs (-6.3%)

Zinc Production = 2,974,000 lbs (+3%)

———————————–

If we compare SilverCorps Q2 to Q1 2011, we see that the Revenues are virtually the same. However, cost of sales have increased 33% while net income has declined 33%. Moreover, SilverCorp milled an additional 35% more ore in Q2 and produced 13% more silver, but still showed a decline of $4.5 million in net income.

There are some analysts who believe a fair price of silver is below $20. I think they are complete FOS -Full of Sheet. If we reduce the overall price of the metals 20% that SilverCorp would have been paid in the second quarter, this is the result:

Total Revenues = $44.5 X 80% = $35.6 million

If we take that figure and input it into the Q2 Financials this would have been the Net Income:

Q2 2012 Net Income = $600,000

So, we see that if the price of silver which is currently $28.70 and multiply it by 80% it would be $22.25. That means if silver hit $22.25 and the costs stayed the same, SilverCorp would basically break even. However, this does not include all the future Capex and dividends it pays to its shareholders. For that to be a breakeven price of silver, it should be approximately $25-26.

There you have it. The real breakeven price of silver for SilverCorp if we figure dividends and CAPEX, is at least $25-26. Analysts who believe $15-20 is a fair price… need to find new work.

The Green Manalishi
Aug 4, 2012 - 6:02am

@ ClinkinKY

No need to worry, I'm not one to hold any grudges and as a man of peace, I'm glad to have removed 4 missiles from the potential arsenal. :)

atarangi
Aug 4, 2012 - 6:22am

That S.R.S dude has got attitude - - -

He puts into words stuff that i feel in places that if i mentioned i would be censored by the powers that be.

ClinkinKY
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:01am

Pretty Sad When The WH Disputes (and claims a victory)...

...over the "rounding up" of the latest numbers. What is even sadder is that the MSM won't report the actual numbers of unemployment:

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Obama adviser: Jobless rate is really 8.254%

The White House is really getting specific when it comes to the unemployment rate.

Rather than 8.3% -- the rounded-up figure -- Obama economic adviser Alan Krueger writes on the White House website that the real jobless rate is 8.254%.

Read more:https://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/08/wh-adviser-jobless-rate-is-really-8254/1#.UBz8EHDmXw7

---------------------------------------

Now, let's have Mr. Peabody and Sherman set the "Wayback Machine" to 2009. (Google Mr. Peabody and Sherman all you young whippersnappers). Google "whippersnapper" too:)

Team Obama said in ’09 stimulus would have unemployment below 6% by 2012

Today’s news that the unemployment rate moved up to 8.3 percent is as good of a time as time as any to revisit the promises the then-incoming administration made in 2009 regarding the economic stimulus bill. Back then they said the stimulus would have unemployment below 6 percent by now.

Read more:https://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-said-in-09-stimulus-would-have-unemployment-below-6-by-2012/article/2503947

We're in "good hands". Keep stacking and prepping.

ClinkinKY
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:20am

Don't Really Need An App For This...

...if he/she is driving a Chevy Volt or a Prius with bumper stickers espousing the glories of B.O., I'm pretty sure they're a Democrat:)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is Your Neighbor a Democrat? Obama Has an App for That

Curious how many Democrats live on your block? Just download the Obama campaign's new mobile app.

The app, released last week, includes a Google map for canvassers that recognizes your current location and marks nearby Democratic households with small blue flags.

For each targeted address, the app displays the first name, age and gender of the voter or voters who live there: "Lori C., 58 F, Democrat."

Read more:https://www.propublica.org/article/is-your-neighbor-a-democrat-obama-has-an-app-for-that

--------------------------------------------------------------

Tempted to check my name on this app. I'm pretty sure it would be "marked" with this:

I Run Bartertown
Aug 4, 2012 - 7:26am

It's Unanimous!

Even his detractors agree that Ron Paul would straighten some shit out!

The Wrong Side of History (2012) - #Carlson4MN

-blue eyed

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

by boomer sooner, 5 min 35 sec ago
by NW VIEW, 1 hour 11 min ago
by Blythesshrink, 1 hour 41 min ago
by Blackwatersailor, 2 hours 12 min ago

Forum Discussion

by atarangi, 15 hours 57 min ago
by atarangi, 16 hours 37 min ago
by atarangi, 16 hours 41 min ago
randomness