Your Weekly Podcast

Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 1:27pm

A little something different this week. As a change of pace, I'm the one getting interviewed. I spoke yesterday with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney and I think you'll enjoy listening in.

The link to the interview is right here:

But it's also available on Youtube:

Turd Ferguson and Alasdair Macleod on the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment

As mentioned above, the NFP numbers this morning threw nearly everyone for a loop, at least initially. Then, once folks were able to "look under the hood", they discovered that things aren't quite so rosy. ZeroHedge opened the door ( and then Jim Quinn kicked it down (

Crude oil is really cooking today and must be watched closely next week. I've got the October crude pushing $92 as we head into the close. A move above the highs from late July near $93 and we'll see crude sets its sights upon $100. Obviously, $100 crude would have an impact on the metals.

This week's CoT is going to be very interesting. Once I see the numbers this afternoon, I'll add some thoughts in the comments section of this thread, so please look for that sometime after 3:30 EDT.

Lastly, "Turd's Army" just completed another stellar month under General Maguire's leadership. We know that it can sometimes be a logistical challenge to perfectly mimic Andy's trades and we're working on that. In the meantime, some folks have chosen instead to simply trade in larger size. I found a thread at where the service is being discussed. Please check it out. (If you're interested, August would be a fine time to consider a trial membership.)

And here's the link to the service:

Lastly, I promised you a wild week this week and it certainly was. Not surprisingly, it turned out almost exactly as we expected. Next week, however, promises to be very exciting as well. I urge you to take the weekend to relax and rest. The summer is getting hotter by the day and you need to be ready for whatever lies ahead.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


The Green Manalishi
Aug 5, 2012 - 10:58am

Cash-for-gold shops boom as Italians sell off their bling

Cash-for-gold shops boom as Italians sell off their bling

Italy's traditional goldsmiths are up in arms over a boom in the poorly regulated cash-for-gold sector that is making billions for the mafia as hard-up Italians rush to sell off their bling.

Traditional goldsmiths claim that out of an estimated 28,000 cash-for-gold stores in Italy, only a few hundred have registered with the Bank of Italy. Photo: Getty More:
Aug 5, 2012 - 11:10am

@ El Gordo

Hi El Gordo.

I have this recurring nightmare, in which Yamashito's gold has been found, & I am the last one to find out before it hits the MSM. In this nightmare, all the other Turdites have snuck off to sell their stack before the price tanks. To those of us not in the loop, it would just look like a quiet day in turdville, with tumbleweed blowing....

of course, that is just paranoia, and I uneasily laugh it off. ;-)

Aug 5, 2012 - 11:12am


Abbott and Costello explain the US Government’s Accounting System

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 9%…

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.


ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work, can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how you get to 9%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don’t want to read about 16% unemployment, do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening..

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an economist.

COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a politician.

Abbot and Costello - Who's on First
Abbot & Costello Explain Obama's Stimulus Plan For Workers
Abbott & Costello: "Two Tens for a Five"
Video unavailable

Aug 5, 2012 - 11:26am

Again, it's debka

But when The Mossad speaks, you should listen. Whether it is misdirection or actual intel, it sure seems that we are getting closer.’s-missiles-Israel-tackle-Syria-Hizballah-

Aug 5, 2012 - 11:40am

Nah, Just a Slow Death...

Just killing us off w/ a slow choke-hold on the PMs. No defined direction in price works to keep many on the sidelines. MoMo Chasers and Bottom Pickers alike.

(As well as some folks may be posting over on TTM pay site.)

Taking the wind out of the sails of Blogs such as this demonstrates masterful M.O.P.E. Which makes this entire sector depressing... Maybe I am drowning in Kool Aid, but is it not where to be accumulating, as everyone else looks the other way?

I would prefer a drawn out price increase for the PM's in proportion to the reduction of purchasing power of the $. Those taking notice would be able to preserve purchasing power.

Aug 5, 2012 - 11:44am

The Debka article

"This task is not as formidable as Iranian spokesmen would have the world believe. Tehran’s entire stock of those missiles is no more than 30-40. That quantity is not nearly enough to take on the entire gamut of potential wartime foes, the United States Middle East bases, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Turkey. "

The Israelis could have their own Yamashita moment if that assumption of 30-40 of the feared missiles is in error.

Aug 5, 2012 - 12:00pm

JOBS ???

Last evening, we attended a free outdoor movie that was sponsored by the city. Ninety-five percent of the people were caucasians and it was interesting to view the people. Because it was 80+ degrees out at dark, one could see the many tattoos, and the nose rings and adult women with Mohegan haircuts. ( I wanted one of those cuts in the early 50's after watching Davie Crockett on our black and white t.v. but mom said NO) . Well this morning we had coffee at the large McDonald's and the place is booming. We again notice that ALL the employees were Asians, no tattoos, no piercings, no Mohegans, and a really active work force. Who would we hire if we had a business that serviced the public??

The American dream is still here for those who have arrived from the poverty of other nations. The wealth of America is quickly being transferred to those with a hunger to succeed. Most of the upper end homes that we have built over the last ten years were bought by Asians (they have the fiat).

I am thankful for all these hard working families that have come to our nation. They help to show us what we have lost and we could learn a lot from their drive to prosper. jmo

I Run Bartertown
Aug 5, 2012 - 12:05pm


But since it's slow, this is an awesome scene. Music, scenery, fighting.

The Last of the Mohicans end

Edit: OMG, I really am a Prophet! I guess it wasn't OT after all, NWVIEW.

"I am thankful for all these hard working families that have come to our nation. They help to show us what we have lost and we could learn a lot from their drive to prosper."

- Chief Tolerant Bear

Aug 5, 2012 - 12:09pm

Yamashita's gold

I suspect many of us Turdites could break Olympic running records if Yamashita's gold was found, too desperate to get to our local coin shops to remember that we have a car. No mean feat following frenzied digging in the back garden with our bare hands.

I think that the moral here is that we can expect such misinformation by the cartel at some point; major gold finds in Afghanistan etc etc. A bank run can be started by rumours, and so can a negative gold panic.

This is a tricky one; if we know they are bluffing, the market still has its own dynamic. We may have to dig and run even though we know they are bluffing.

Life is absurd.

Aug 5, 2012 - 12:35pm

Black Swans and probabilities

Black swans are unforeseen events that have very low Probabilities of occurring. So the following aren't black swans per se. Call them grey swans. Dangerous events that, although the probabilities of occurrence are less than 50%, combined, they portend an ominous future for our economy and portfolios.

What are the chances of the following events causing a 30% crash in the markets over the next 6 months?

1. Libor. The greatest fraud in the history of financial markets. Affects 500 -600 trillion dollars worth of derivatives. The lawsuits alone have the potential of destroying the banks to the tune of 2.5 trillion dollars (Rickards), making them insolvent. The chances of this occurring over the next 6 months and decimating our markets: 10%

2. China's economy imploding. Manufacturing is contracting. Statistics unreliable. Real Estate bubble on the coast on par with the U.S. Corruption rampant. A new regime in September with Chaos and jockeying for power behind the scenes (See Bo Xilai). The chance of this causing international market contraction? 10%

3. Syria blowing sky high. We have a classic standoff between Russia and NATO. Russian troops are enroute. Iran is behind the current regime. The CIA has acknowledged they are helping the rebels. Geographic Instability the world hasn't seen since the last World War. Chances that this could get out of hand and impede worldwide economic growth? 10%

4. An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Foreign minister of Israel announced that he 'wouldn't want to be an Iranian over the next 12 weeks. Iran has stated that they will close the straight of Hormuz if attacked. One mine in thatwater would have all insurance companies pull supertaker insurance and shut down transit for weeks if not months. Chances of the attack and closure of the Strait? 25%

5. The government of the United States being unable to address the fiscal cliff at the end of the year. They cannot agree on 38 million dollars worth of cuts, how can they possibly agree on the automatic 500 billion dollar cut in spending, and the tax issues? The chances of stalemate, tax increases, and massive budget cuts on January 1? 10%

6. A Greek default. Mathematically Greece is toast. They cannot pay their bills without Germany. Germany will suffer a 500 billion dollar loss if they bail them out. A 1.5 tillion dollar loss if they don't. They have repeatedly said that bailouts in the form of money printing are off the table. Chances that they will stick to their guns and cause Armageddon throughout the European banking system? 30%

7. A Spanish default. Spain is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. They are also bankrupt. Chances they will leave the Euro and default? 20%

8. Massive increases in inflation caused by food price increases. India moonsoon is short 21% of it's water. The U.S. (breadbasket of the world) is suffering it's worst drought in 80 years. Southern Europe (responsible for 17% of European food exports) is in drought. China is in drought. What are the chances that this is the spark that ignites massive worldwide price inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies to hold their value and thus large market dislocations? 20%

9. A collapse of the U.S. bond market. Already at all time highs, US bonds have no where to go but down, taking all our pension plans with it. This will exacerbate the budget deficit and strangle the economy, should it occur with the push from food inflation. Chances of a bond collapse? 10%.

Taken individually, these grey swans have low probabilities of happening. Taken together there is an 80% chance that one of them will occur over the next 6 months. And thus at least a 30% decline in the U.S. stock market. Those are not odds I want to take.

I attempted to be conservative in my subjective estimates of the probabilities occurring. Am I on the right track. Your opinions are solicited.

Got Gold?



Byzantium Icarus
Aug 5, 2012 - 12:37pm

Black Swans & probabilities

good post.

But someone wrote about the Euro crisis, as it dragged on and on, their realisation that it is possible to be both terrified and bored at the same time.

Here in the UK, when a snowstorm is imminent, and one shrewdly makes an unplanned visit to the supermarket to stock up on a few essentials, one sees that everybody else is at least as shrewd as you, and that a mini panic buy has started.

That's essentially the nature of today's public; 'Wake me up once something actually starts. Till then, party on!'

Aug 5, 2012 - 12:57pm

A shot across the goldbugs bows?

Please read the article linked to above, about the 28,000 cash for gold shops that have sprung up in Italy.

I can see what the newspaper is trying to do, they are implying that gold is the currency of crime (probably terrorism too). This is a prelude to the defamation / criminalisation of gold. We are under attack.

"Criminal organisations have at least 50pc of the cash-for-gold shops in their grip. They use fake figureheads to avoid leaving a trace and run illegal foundries in the backstreets of cities like Naples," said Razzante.

In March, Interior Minister Anna Maria Cancellieri said the sector had generated "a black market... which necessitates the constant monitoring above all in criminal circles linked to usury, fencing and money laundering."

and hell, why not? I mean, before these cash for gold shops, the Mafia were never involved in usury, fencing and money laundering. It all started because of gold, no?

TomMack Byzantium
Aug 5, 2012 - 1:27pm

yamashita gold

unlike works of Art looted during the fungibility of gold makes me certain that it has long been 'placed' with the victors. there are plenty of things to force down the price of gold and silver but discovery of large hoards isn't one of them. keep stacking and hope for orderly inflation versus a 'black swan' moment. imo that is the best way we will be able to appreciate our stacking activities.

Byzantium TomMack
Aug 5, 2012 - 1:40pm

yamashita gold

you are preaching to the choir. That's not the point.

If you and I know that they are bluffing, but the market nonetheless dives, then who is the fool?

I have a 'hold for life' portion, and a trading portion. anything that will make the price dip, and I mean anything (even unicorn gold for the gullible), then my trading portion gets sold if I am in time to front run it, to be bought back later at cheaper prices. If there is none later to buy, I still have the core stack.

With ref to my earlier comment in the thread, I adhere to both Sinclair's meme 'be right and sit tight,' and Norcini's 'the trading floor is frequently littered with the bodies of those who were right till the bitter end; don't be one of them.'

BillAuAg Menthalo
Aug 5, 2012 - 2:13pm

Wall Street under cyber attack ?


Although I did not read all of your screed, I would like to point out that America is NOT an EMPIRE.

Further, I see a lot of speculation and few if any facts.

Clearly you belong to the far left

Aug 5, 2012 - 2:14pm

Re: Black Swans and probabilities

For the most part I think you've got these rated about right, except the Iranian war. That is becoming more inevitable every day. Too many people have talked themselves into corners on it and there is no way to back down without appearing weak. Beside, it fits the playbook too well: Economy going south? Start a war.

El Gordo
Aug 5, 2012 - 2:30pm

Another bank experiences "difficulties"

More Sharing ServicesShare Share on facebook_likeEmail Comment Print Text Size - / + MINNEAPOLIS August 4, 2012 (AP)

U.S. Bancorp says service has been restored at its 8,000 automatic teller machines across the nation following a two-hour outage.

The owner of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank says a power failure in Oregon led to ATM outages Saturday between 7:30 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. EDT.

Bank spokesman Tom Joyce says the problems were sporadic and power was restored in geographic blocks over time. He says not all 8,000 machines were down for the entire two hours.

Joyce says the failures weren't due to hacking or security violations. He says the entire network should be back online and working fine.

U.S. Bank has more than 3,000 bank offices in 25 states. It's the fifth-largest commercial bank in the U.S., with $353 billion in assets.

Aug 5, 2012 - 2:35pm


Please define empire. You can't say "America is NOT and EMPIRE" with any credibility if you do not define that term. Encyclopedia Britannica:

imperialism, state policy, practice, or advocacy of extending power and dominion, especially by direct territorial acquisition or by gaining political and economic control of other areas. (Emphasis added.)

Tell me how that does not apply to Anglo-American foreign policy in general or NATO and the IMF in particular. Now, call me a lefty if you want, but that only means you don't know much about me.

I Run Bartertown
Aug 5, 2012 - 2:38pm

What Are We?

empire (ˈɛmpaɪə)
1. an aggregate of peoples and territories, often of great extent,under the rule of a single person, oligarchy, or sovereign state



[ney-shuhn] Show IPA noun 1. a large body of people, associated with a particular territory,that is sufficiently conscious of its unity to seek or topossess a government peculiarly its own: The president spoketo the nation about the new tax. 2. an aggregation of persons of the same ethnic family, often speaking the same language or cognate languages.


republic (rɪˈpʌblɪk)


any community or group that resembles a political republic inthat its members or elements exhibit a general equality, shared interests, etc: the republic of letters


country (ˈkʌntrɪ)

n , pl -tries

a territory distinguished by its people, culture, language,geography, etc

leeson_was_framed GoldMania3000
Aug 5, 2012 - 3:20pm

Price of Food

What is a family to do?

In the past we did a lot more with a lot less.

1. With the cat. Pottinger showed eighty years ago that cats thrive on a raw food diet. If you can wean your cat onto a mixed cooked and raw food diet you could save a lot of money. Offal is cheaper that cat food and lightly cooked or raw it is better than cat food.

2. Putting a little coillidal silver (home made) boost immunity and will keep the vet bills down.

3. Start taking more probiotic foods, kefir, sauerkraut, etc. These will boost digestion and reduced the amount of food you need to eat. You will extract more nutrients from food, and enjoy better health.

4. Learn about lacto-fermentation it not only adds probiotics to food, it also enables you to prepare vegetables and meat for consumption without cooking.

5. Sprouting is a great way to get fresh nutritious food on demand.

6. Eat as much fresh food as you can, organic if possible, and avoid irradiated foods as this process destroys enzymes.

7. Learn about the food myths. Saturated animal fats are nutrient dense, and because of misinformation relatively cheap. Organic is to be preferred for obvious reasons, but remember, machines pressed vegetable oils are mostly junk, GMO and contaminated with trans-fats from heating during the pressing process.

8. Try to get in some raw vegetable juice, the enzymes will boost digestions and help cleanse the body.

These tips can save you a meal a day as it can allow you to extract 30-40% more nutrients from food. The enzymes form probiotics are particularly beneficial.

If you have a flower pot or a little garden, start growing your own food. A cool trick is to lacto-ferment food leftovers as it makes a great soil nutrient.

Katie Rose
Aug 5, 2012 - 3:44pm

El Gordo

In response to your query about where everybody is...

I've been too darn busy to even visit. It's Summer! For non-city folks, that means dawn to dusk work.

I get up around 4:50 AM. Have my breakfast and many cups of tea. Head out to the garden and weed. Stay till it is too hot to do anymore.

Then go to the barn and take the goats outside, change their water, give them some dry grass hay so they won't bloat, and begin milking. It takes an unbelievable two hours to get all the goat stuff done, and the milk filtered and in the freezer for a quick cool down.

Then have another cup of tea. Make my elderly Mom lunch.

Then the canning begins. The last two days we have put up 60 lbs of apricots and dozens of jars of sweet dill pickles and sweet pickle chips. The cukes come from our greenhouse and are delicious.

Then nap time as we are worn out.

Make dinner, then head back out to mow and get the goats ready for sleep. Then milk again, bottle feed little buckling, filter the milk and crash.

And somewhere in there we have picked raspberries and frozen dozens and dozens of boxes. We have no time to make jelly or syrup. That can wait till later.

And watering, somewhere in there we are watering the orchard and garden. We ran out of money before a drip system could be installed.

Today I have gone on strike. That is why I am on the computer. I need a day off, except with goats there is never a day off, more like a half day off.

Farm work is sooooooooooo hard. I believe that is why most US farmers are over 50 and their children have fled the farms and moved into the cities.

So what happens when the results of the drought really begins to hit the grocery store shelf prices? I've no idea. What I do know is that very few of my professional friends are willing or even capable of the kind of work we do. And on a farm, you can't put off till another day what needs to be done today.

When the apricots are ready, they need to be canned NOW. Same with the raspberries. Same with green peas. Procrastination is not an option. Laziness is not an option. Computer time is not an option. There is simply too much work to be done.

Aug 5, 2012 - 3:48pm
Aug 5, 2012 - 4:01pm

Gold bubble or not

Was talking to a friend in Spain this morning. He is pretty conversant on economic matters. I was talking about gold and he suggested that gold was in a bubble with prices so high. He noted that there are so many shops in Spain popping up (like in Italy?) that will buy your gold - quite common now that many have to sell their gold to live. My comment was that gold will be only be in a bubble when the shops are selling gold to the public (not buying from).

Fired Katie Rose
Aug 5, 2012 - 4:04pm

@Katie Re: Summer Harvest

Just finished three hours of picking the last of the peas with my 86 yr old father. Beans tomorrow. Plums, figs next week. Still to come: grapes! lots and lots of grapes! potatoes, beets, zucchini, squash, tomatoes and cukes as they come, apples and pears. The horses are much less work than goats (not ours, boarded for people with fiat to spend). Oh yeah, I still have a couple of cords of firewood to get in before October.

Oops! Forgot about the blackberries. Got to pick them @ 6AM to avoid the wasps and the snakes (my wife HATES snakes).

Aug 5, 2012 - 4:12pm


I just read the the ZH article about inflation and looked over the graph (and that is simply what the FED admits), curious of what my Benjamin is worth today, I ran some numbers through a speradsheet that compounded the inflation rate on $100 for that ten year period and found that my 2002 C-note will only purchase $76 worth of goods today. And Obama says the private sector is doing fine!


I think your black swan probabilities are realistic. I suspect that TPTB will dodge the financial swans, but war, hunger and its effects can't be MOPEd or printed away.


You are amazing.

Louie Puck Smith
Aug 5, 2012 - 4:18pm

Black swans and probabilities- Iran

I have been spreading the conspiracy theory for some time that President Obama will attack (or help Israel attack) Iran this fall in the run up to the election. President Obama lost a lot of support from the Jewish community with his "Pre-1964 borders" remark. He needs to show that he is a big supporter of Israel before election day, even better if he can do it in time to re-energize the Jewish donors.

If I was President Obama, I would do it during the Republican National Convention. August 27th-30th.

Aug 5, 2012 - 4:33pm

busy here,too

Weeding, picking, canning.....every single day. I'm not a busy as Katie Rose, though, as I am usually done by 4 or 5 and still have time to read here every day. Sometimes I'm just too dang tired to read other sites and bring the news over here. Haven't taken a summer vacation in years. But it's worth it. My labor in exchange for organic food.....I will do it until I can't anymore.

Aug 5, 2012 - 4:33pm

@teach, I don't get it: if


I don't get it: if this guy knows in advance what the gold price is going to be, and he can make ~$1600/contract with certainty, why is he complaining? Please explain.

Fired Rico
Aug 5, 2012 - 4:42pm


Because its wrong?

Aug 5, 2012 - 4:51pm


Louie, don't give them any ideas!

And don't suggest that they release oil from the strategic reserves to cover up the price spike. Otherwise we may have $4.25 gasoline the week before the election

Anyone want to bet that Nancy Pelosi or some other shill Dem will come out with some remark about evil oil speculators in the next ten days? [I won't torture you with her pic here] Then we will see oil futures crash two days later due to short selling bullion banks, or 10 billion barrels of strategic reserves released. And a week later the SEC will announce charges against some scapegoat traders with their puny million dollar hedge fund that slapped the world oil markets around last week! Well, that's my prediction for the month.

Good thing we have Obama to straighten out all these messes for us! Where would we be without him?

I going to go puke right now.


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs