Your Weekly Podcast

Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 1:27pm

A little something different this week. As a change of pace, I'm the one getting interviewed. I spoke yesterday with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney and I think you'll enjoy listening in.

The link to the interview is right here:

But it's also available on Youtube:

Turd Ferguson and Alasdair Macleod on the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment

As mentioned above, the NFP numbers this morning threw nearly everyone for a loop, at least initially. Then, once folks were able to "look under the hood", they discovered that things aren't quite so rosy. ZeroHedge opened the door ( and then Jim Quinn kicked it down (

Crude oil is really cooking today and must be watched closely next week. I've got the October crude pushing $92 as we head into the close. A move above the highs from late July near $93 and we'll see crude sets its sights upon $100. Obviously, $100 crude would have an impact on the metals.

This week's CoT is going to be very interesting. Once I see the numbers this afternoon, I'll add some thoughts in the comments section of this thread, so please look for that sometime after 3:30 EDT.

Lastly, "Turd's Army" just completed another stellar month under General Maguire's leadership. We know that it can sometimes be a logistical challenge to perfectly mimic Andy's trades and we're working on that. In the meantime, some folks have chosen instead to simply trade in larger size. I found a thread at where the service is being discussed. Please check it out. (If you're interested, August would be a fine time to consider a trial membership.)

And here's the link to the service:

Lastly, I promised you a wild week this week and it certainly was. Not surprisingly, it turned out almost exactly as we expected. Next week, however, promises to be very exciting as well. I urge you to take the weekend to relax and rest. The summer is getting hotter by the day and you need to be ready for whatever lies ahead.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2012 - 1:51am

The Internet has nothing to

The Internet has nothing to do with what is in your heart, and no country will survive with freedom as it's mantra if the people don't not only understand it but hold it deeply.

It's late here, but I suggest you check back to see what a Republic realy is. I've posted it and it's in the archives.

Please don't see this as an insult, but as an opportunity for education.

Respecting Reality, and our fellow man that does the same is what it's all about.


Aug 4, 2012 - 2:01am

And then there were six...

Tropical Depression number 6 has formed in the Eastern Atlantic.

looks like Ernesto is goin' to party in Cancun before heading into the Gulf.

Aug 4, 2012 - 2:25am

@NW View

Yes, I was hoping to spark a rousing debate on the Private Economic Zone idea. If there are those here that believe, fervently, as I do, that an economic collapse is guaranteed here in the USA, then we need to start offering solutions that can lift us up after the collapse, instead of just screaming that the sky is falling. If there is no collapse, fine. But what if there is? Would not all of us best be served by trying to get back to a sustainable model, whereby productivity is rewarded? Is the illegal alien argument driven by a focus on productivity, or something else? Is the occupy wall street protest movement driven by productivity or something else? Where is the public discourse focused? No one should or would care about illegals, if productivity were honestly rewarded. If revenue was pouring into the governments, there could be a huge safety net. The illegals could get all the free stuff they wanted, because no productive person would mind. But, because the productive are taxed to death, the productive grow increasingly resentful of the unproductive, whether illegals or otherwise, and this drives the public discourse. The solution is so simple: shrink government and let the private sector work us out of the hole. If this is is not done, then the natural progression of this constant increase in size and scope and therefore intrusiveness of government is constantly shrinking private enterprise, entrepreneurs, risk taking and capital investment, all of which decreases revenues. Guaranteed. The other nasty side effects are a growing black market, based on the natural and unbreakable will to live and utter contempt for authority, which only acellerate societal callapse even faster. Who will have the courage to speak the truth about all this and be excoriated publicly and privately? I will try to repost the PEZ post tomorrow.

Aug 4, 2012 - 2:41am

Friday just proved that value of the USD

Friday just proved that value of USD is not tied to what is going on in the USA, but depends on flight to safety ->fear level. Any bad news from Europe or USA or elsewhere will increase its value. Good news-decrease. That is working against easing effects.

e.g Turd saw this weeks price action excellently, unbelievable, but he based Friday spike on bad payroll stats, but they were good ( I mean at face value that moves markets). Even though the assumption was wrong, the price action was correctly predicted, but, as many noticed here , it had direct link to USD going down after good news, especially in gold-> 1:1. Silver is starting to feel additional acceleration from GSR dynamics.

So one way to see PMs up is to hope for better news from the USA. Would not that be interesting as endgame will be much prolonged? It seems that with elections coming, that is generally achievable, to produce good news from statistical departments. However, price of oil will see some of good news capped a bit.

However, Europe will weigh on the USD and move it up still (as flight to safety returns with each bad EURozone news, which are waiting to come out in abundance every week as Spain and Italy deteriorates ) , on other hand, bad news from Europe means that physical demand in Europe will increase, which might be not a small issue.

So the volatility in PM prices is still there as USD value is prone to sharp changes in such situation with an unpredictable mix of developments going on. GSR gives some hopes that silver will hold and do better than gold this autumn.

Also, the effects of planned and unplanned US debt increases will be PM positive. More debt will be bought by the FED again in a way which will continue to increase its balance sheet.

That is just my ideas forming as they are being written.

Aug 4, 2012 - 3:00am
Aug 4, 2012 - 3:06am

GSR breaks daily uptrend support, closes on weekly

That is good news for silver in environment where USDx value is uncertain.

Daily uptrend support is broken, has already once demonstrated properties of resistance:

And there is a longer GSR uptrend which might be broken on a weekly chart very soon:

So far, so good. Would be nice if GSR starts to move down decisively.

Aug 4, 2012 - 3:45am

Ivar's is the man - - -

No no, not the clam chowder man. The Latvian guy who looks at the patterns that drive events. Where would we be without him?

Aug 4, 2012 - 3:49am

Chilean Miners: Still Trapped?

For the mining enthusiasts... (48 min. video report)

Pretty good follow up on the 33 trapped Chilean miners today. Some interesting mining tech stuff between the human interest stuff.

Aug 4, 2012 - 3:51am

not much to contribute tonight

but wanted to say thanks to Mr. F for throwing us a podcast today and that TTM freebee last weekend.

Very awesome!

And everybody in the community adds so much to this site. Thanks to all!

I have no doubt that we will see some major action in the PMs soon. When the fight moves to Iran, oil will shoot up, money that we do not have will be needed for more death machines, bombs, etc and the printing will begin. And the metals will act accordingly. Real money in a debased fiat addicted society... Anyone who cannot see the connection between QE and the huge rise in metals value in US dollars has their head in the sand(and there are alot of these folks). Printing money is far from done, so your metals will only go up.

Didn't say much that most on here don't already know, but i I'm still seeing posts questioning the explosive moves in PMs that Turd has been trying to warn people about. Either you're stacking or you're not... Hope you are. Good luck.

p.s. sorry I dont have a lot to feed the Turd, but every bit helps keep this site the way it is. so my next stop is the collection plate. Please join me.

LouiePuck Smith
Aug 4, 2012 - 4:25am

@Puck T. Smith- Tax free friend

Tell them that Harry Reid said that the income tax was voluntary?

Don't answer the door?

What I would do is to get all my money out of any/all accounts, then file my tax returns I have heard that it is a bigger problem to not file, than it is to not pay, so he should at least file the returns.

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
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9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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