Expecting A Bounce

Thu, Aug 2, 2012 - 3:55pm

Well this week has certainly played out as expected, hasn't it? The question now is: Will tomorrow be the final piece of the puzzle? Will price rally off of a lousy BLSBS report? I'm quite sure that it will. Come on in and I'll explain why.

At the risk of seeming to beat a dead horse, regular readers of TFMR (and subscribers to TTM) know that this week is playing out almost entirely as expected. Last Friday, I had hoped that his week would be an UP week but I put the chances at just 25%. The more likely outcome was an early-week rally, followed by a mid-week beatdown, followed by a Friday rally that leaves the week virtually unchanged. If you haven't yet, you can read all about it here (complete with the obligatory images of the spec sheep being sheared).


So what do we have so far? The early week gold rally never quite materialized as prices mainly attempted to consolidate last week's gains. Silver rallied though, rising by 54c back on Monday. But the rally toward the top of the ranges never happened because the HFTs decided to front-run the Fed and they began to sell in earnest Tuesday afternoon. From there, the gold price fell over $30 from Tuesday high to Wednesday trough and the selling has continued today. After a brief, Draghi-induced rise toward $1615 this morning, The Gold Cartel was able to smash price and even succeeded, by around noon or so, to drop price back through the 50-day MA, which is currently near $1593. Further HFT/algo selling ensued and, before you know it, price dropped all the way to $1583. With the HFTs and assorted other specs sufficiently short, price has reversed and stabilized just below $1590.

So, why do I expect a rally tomorrow?

  • Well, first of all, why not?? So far, the week has played out almost exactly as forecast so why wouldn't it continue? Seriously. The BLSBS will likely drive price back UP through the 50-day MA...which will inspire short-covering...which will push price back above $1600...which will inspire even more short-covering...and so on and so on.
  • Physical demand in London remains robust sub-$1600 in gold and near $27 in silver. This demand continues to put a floor under the paper price and will soon cause another rebound, as well.
  • And look at these charts. The correlation is undeniable. Note that, over the past month, every single time the RSI drops below 40 on these 6-hour charts, price almost instantly rebounds. The average short-term bounce in silver is around 85c and the average bounce in gold is around $30.

The final part of the "prediction" from last Friday was that, in the end, price would finish roughly unchanged for the week. (Upon further review, I'd expect The Cartels to step in late in the day with the intention of assuring a slightly down week and a red candle on the weekly chart.) Last Friday, the Oct12 gold closed at $1618. An "average" rally tomorrow would push it back to...drum roll, please... $1618. Last Friday, the Sep12 silver closed at $27.50. An "average" rally would push it back toward $27.75, up on the week but still below the early week highs near $28.30.

Of course, how would I have any idea what the NFP number will be tomorrow? I'm not a Fed governor or sleazeball, WallSt banker with inside info. I'm simply stating that, because the metals markets are so grossly manipulated on a daily basis, sometimes it's rather easy to predict what will happen next. We'll see.

Of course, if tomorrow does, in fact, play out almost exactly as forecast above, I will graciously accept all platitudes and honoraria. If it doesn't...well, I'll simply delete this post and pretend that I never typed it.

Have a great evening! TF

5:00 pm EDT UPDATE:

​I can't confirm it yet but it appears that silver margins are being reduced on Monday. Keep checking the comments of this thread for updates and/or confirmation.

Also, I just came across this GoldMoney podcast. Alasdair Macleod interviews John Butler. I haven't had a chance to listen to it yet but I'm supremely confident that is is well worth your time.

Death of the dollar: John Butler talks to Alasdair Macleod

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2012 - 11:56am

What Are They Telling Us

There are 2 vids that currently intrigue me.

First one:

Video unavailable

Partial Statement given under vid: Everyone please go to 24:28 you are all going to see these numbers #338.54.. # 3= March 38 = 3+8 = 11 , 54 = 5+4 = 9 the Magnitude 9.0 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011 March 11 05:46:23 UTC 5+4 =9 6+2+3=1 and their is what this code represents March 11, 9/11 2011.

Then couple that with this: The ghost towns of China: Amazing satellite images show cities meant to be home to millions lying deserted


and: Recent chatter about evacuating the entire country of Japan and 7/27/2012 — VERY LARGE night time eruption of Sakurajima Volcano in Japan


Then these vids:


Video unavailable

From vid: The 2009 released Fema commercial shows a family sitting down at home then suddenly their world is UPSIDE DOWN!!

The first scene is a boy staring at 3 candles and a Dinosaur. Then the event takes place.
Also There are 12 oranges that fly in the air.

Lets think. Dinosaurs were extinct due to a cosmic event. Could this signify that humans will become extinct from a major pole shifting event in 2012.??

Why would there be a dinosaur? Why three candles? (three years later is 2012) WHY TWELVE oranges in the air???

The world will go through a major sudden polar shift VERY SOON.


I noticed the clock, 5:10? and when ending the room has done a 160.

Interesting things, am I crazy? Don't answer that, lol.

Dagney Taggart
Aug 3, 2012 - 6:57pm


Even though I personally find it repulsive, objectively speaking, it must be nice for the elite to see how they have succeeded in brainwashing the people so thoroughly.

Now that's entertainment: walking around with a dirty secret and watching it play out all around you.

Aug 3, 2012 - 6:33pm

@ Dagney

Interesting, uh!

Their code (yes, they have a code) is they have to tell you what they are going to do before they do it and who they are. Strange code they have, they believe if they tell you before hand you consent to their actions and they believe they are absolved of any wrongdoing, crime, etc..

All sorts of things in cartoons, movies and so on. In the fairytale Cinderella the cats name is Lucifer. It's not called programming for nothing.

a_guy_in_hainesvilleI Run Bartertown
Aug 3, 2012 - 4:55pm

@Criminal Dereliction of Duty

I know the lawyer cited in the article.

He has NOT been representing the people who broke into the house and are trying to stay.

I called to make sure everything was in line and he was like I was their atty for another matter with a foreclusure when they were not even in default or behind.

The media has a win win here. Tie a Christian atty to a case where we plant the social theme of we don't really have property rights and there is always a way for the gov't system to keep you from it. This is perfect for them.

Sadly, the Christian angle on it is false. I just hung up with his wife.

Aug 3, 2012 - 4:49pm

Drought worsens in midwest

Drought worsens in midwest and threatens next year's corn crop Obama administration under growing pressure to end support for corn ethanol as gas and food prices continue to rise https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/02/drought-worsens-midwe...

Aug 3, 2012 - 4:36pm

Treasury audit-partial audit of fed gold

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Los Angeles Times reported yesterday that the U.S. Treasury Department is "auditing" the gold vaulted at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, most of which is held in custody for other countries, but only to the extent of confirming the gold content of the bars kept there, and not touching on issues of ownership impairment, like swapping and leasing, the issues raised by GATA and others aggrieved by manipulation of the gold market.

Indeed, the "audit" seems intended to dispel "conspiracy theories" without actually having to disclose anything about the U.S. government's gold market intervention policy, the issue at the heart of GATA's freedom-of-information lawsuit against the Fed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, a lawsuit that was decided more or less in GATA's favor last year and revealed that the Fed has secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks as well as many other gold-related records that are being kept secret:


Responding to the L.A. Times story, Zero Hedge quickly explained why the Treasury's "audit" of the New York Fed's gold is a fraud. "What the 'conspiracy theorists' allege," Zero Hedge notes, "is that claims existing in paper format on the physical gold held under Liberty 33 are orders of magnitude greater than the actual physical gold these claims supposedly have recourse to":


But the L.A. Times story does quote U.S. Rep. Ron Paul on that point and even mentions the movement in Germany to repatriate that nation's gold reserves from foreign vaults. And if the Treasury Department has felt compelled to commission exactly the wrong kind of audit to deflect rising concerns about gold issues, that's progress too.

The L.A. Times story is appended.

Dagney Taggart
Aug 3, 2012 - 4:15pm


The Duck Tales vid is just a coincidence and I am so kidding.

Dagney Taggart
Aug 3, 2012 - 4:12pm

Looking Good

Comex silver closes above 50dma. Retests at 3:30.

Interesting jump in the XAU and HUI the last 3 minutes.

I always wanted to play this:

Looking Good Billy Ray!

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Aug 3, 2012 - 4:05pm

Taco Hell

No more peeing in cheerios.

Peeing in cheerios is so last week.

Peeing in Taco Bell is the new thing, yuck!


Taco Bell employee pees on order and posts photo online

Aug 3, 2012 - 4:00pm


look at the perfect "V" the last 15 minutes

1% down then up

real normal trading

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
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8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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