Waiting For The Fedlines

Wed, Aug 1, 2012 - 10:40am

Though it appears that the algos have decided NOT to wait, we humans eagerly await today's "Fedlines" to see what The Bernank has in store for us next.

First, for an overview of what was expected this week, please go back and review this:


Look, if you and I can discern the pattern that metal prices are allowed to rise before The Bernank speaks and then get thrashed after, is it not surprising that some HFT computer programmers could see the same thing. Beginning late yesterday and continuing this morning (with a shove from the ADP), the HFTs and SpecSheep have attempted to front-run the Fedlines and The Cartels. Silly computers. Don't they know that there is no "front-running The Cartel"? If the market is falling today, it's because The Cartel wants it to fall. Would anyone be surprised if prices now rise after the Fedlines as The Cartel squeezes the SpecShortSheep? I wouldn't be.

In the post referenced above, I speculated that we'd see an early week rally, followed by a Fedline dip and then a BLBBS rally. That pattern could easily play out by the end of today instead of Friday. What I mean is this:

  1. The rally last week and Monday drew in some longs.
  2. Instead of waiting for the Fedline release, front-running algos drop price now. Longs are scared out and new spec shorts are added.
  3. Price rallies on the Fedlines. New spec shorts are scared out.
  4. Price returns to 1600+ and awaits BLSBS Friday.

We'll see but, to me, that's the most likely series of events at this point.

Here are two daily charts for you. Note that gold has slipped back into its "pennant" but that silver has not. Also note that silver should have very strong support should price approach, or dip below, $27.

Lastly, my brother-in-law, sent me the email I've copied below. It's something for you to chew on as we kill time this morning. I'll have more later, of course, after the FOMC headlines are released and the markets assessed. TF

In 1887 Alexander Tytler, a Scottish history professor at the
University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the
Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always
temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent
form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until
the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous
gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority
always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from
the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally
collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the
beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200
years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 1, 2012 - 10:43am

Good post Turd

And that sequence from your brother in law is familiar.....and a wee bit worrisome. The wheel turns and grinds evermore.

Aug 1, 2012 - 10:43am


first finally?!?!?! yes!

Aug 1, 2012 - 10:44am

okay...never mind. dammit! :(

okay...never mind. dammit! :(

Aug 1, 2012 - 10:45am

Can I play the "FIRST" game

All in all: Thnx TF

Edit: Apparently, Not this time for I missed

Aug 1, 2012 - 10:50am

My brother-in-law...

...then concluded his email with this:

Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law in
St. Paul, Minnesota, points out some interesting facts concerning
the last Presidential election:

Number of States won by: Obama: 19 McCain: 29
Square miles of land won by: Obama: 580,000 McCain: 2,427,000
Population of counties won by: Obama: 127 million McCain: 143 million
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by: Obama: 13.2 McCain: 2.1

Professor Olson adds: "In aggregate, the map of the territory
McCain won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens
of the country.
Obama territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in low
income tenements and living off various forms of government
Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the
"complacency and apathy" phase of Professor Tytler's definition of
democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population
already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

Aug 1, 2012 - 10:51am

Down Once Again

It looks like they are going to bomb us with paper until the real metal runs out and paper won't make much difference any more.


Aug 1, 2012 - 10:54am


Turd: Thanks a ton for your heads up awhile ago on UCO . The rest of you might want to check out Debka.com to see what the Iranians are up to and then check out UCO again. TPTB can control gold and silver but they're going to have a hard time controlling the Ayatolla. I think this is getting very serious.

Just A Regular Guy
Aug 1, 2012 - 10:58am

Floating Rate Notes?

Anyone have any ideas? Am I incorrect in assuming that basically they'll not "insure" against inflation, people will buy the bonds, the US will have rampant inflation post -ve interest rates - bond holders of floating rates get real negative returns, debt held by external people is made worthless via inflation, and viola debt solved and currency destroyed?

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Aug 1, 2012 - 11:00am

Red Pill or Red Button

As the market once again awaits another QE announcement from Bernanke, are we not looking at the magician's left hand when he is stuffing the white Dove in his right pocket? In other words, has QE ever stopped for longer than a few months? Santa makes good, common sense when he states that the Fed will not do anything when we expect it. I've begun to see these Fedline days as just opportunities for the bad guys to do bad things.

My understanding is that the Fed, the ESF, the PPT, Central Banks and their bosom buddy banks worldwide create, hide and slosh trillions of digital/paper Dollars around behind the curtain every chance they get while they manhandle all assets that they deem a threat to their Ponzi.

Yet it seems we all forget what we’ve already seen and read and heard about the lies and demonic trickery of those that control the markets, paint the charts, bleed investors, bloat the banks and terrorize bullion and mining investors. Time and again, so many market participants devolve along with the talking heads and back into Pavlovian QE dogs every time Bernanke has a meeting or steps in front of a microphone.

Could traders and market participants of all shapes and sizes be the very ones perpetuating the Wizard of Oz syndrome by assigning a man and his lever the power to control the market with a single announcement? Is this a self-fulfilling prophecy of "to be or not to be"?

Gold and silver did just fine before QE became such a buzz-acronym-tail wagging us dogs. Have we all fed on the Fed bait and conditioned ourselves to wait for the dark master to pause from his tinker, toy and destroy levers long enough to toss us another dog biscuit of a metals spike?

Sometimes I envision the ‘controllers’ and the monkeys sitting around chuckling at how the market continues to whine, pant and push the red QE button begging for and expecting treats… only to get shocked instead. Over and over again.

Bullion may rise or be on sale with or without any announcement from anyone. Woof.

TreeTop Dweller
Aug 1, 2012 - 11:00am

The Fall of the Athenian Republic


The Fall of the Athenian Republic has been circulated for a number of years...

Q: What’s the deal with Prof. Joseph Olson’s "unreported stats" from the 2008 election?

A: This chain e-mail is a hoax. The "statistics" are grossly incorrect, and Prof. Olson says he didn’t write it.

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Forum Discussion

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