Going Nowhere Fast

Tue, Jul 31, 2012 - 10:23am

I had hoped that Tuesday would provide some excitement. Nope. We are in Dullsville while everyone awaits the FOMC tomorrow. To kill the time, I found something we definitely need to discuss.

Last night, ZeroHedge decided to dip into their archives and recycle a post from September of 2009. In case you missed it, I thought I should focus on it here, while we wait for a tomorrow that will be about 1000% more interesting.

Here is the link to the story from last evening which begins with the following paragraph:

"Lately various media outlets have been swamped with stories and allegations of precious metal manipulation ranging from the arcane, to the bizarre to the outright ridiculous. At issue is not that these claims of price fraud are unfounded - they very well may be completely true - but without a notarized facsimile of an actual trade ticket signed by Brian Sack, or his replacement Simon Potter, or any of the BIS traders confirming they are indeed selling gold on behalf of the Fed, BOE, ECB, SNB or BOJ simply to keep the price of the metal down, what such constant factless accusations (and no, sorry, a chart showing that the price of gold may go up or go down sharply indicates merely that and nothing about the underlying factors for such a move) do is to habituate the broader public to the real issues surrounding precious metal, and other asset class, manipulation. So instead of searching for circumstantial evidence which one can easily find everywhere, we decided to go straight to the source. To do that we go back to a post we wrote back in September of 2009, based on an internal previously confidential Fed document, which conveniently enough explains everything vis-a-vis gold manipulation and leaves nothing to speculation or misinterpretation. Zero Hedge presents the smoking gun that may provide responses to all the various open questions regarding the Fed's Modus Operandi in the gold arena which answer the core question - motive - courtesy of a declassified memorandum, written by none other than the then Fed Chairman, and addressed to the president of the United States."


And here is the link to the original piece from three years ago which concludes with the following:

"So to all conspiracy theorists claiming that gold is being manipulated on a daily basis by the Federal Reserve: when it occurs over and over, and is so well documented, it is no longer a theory, it is merely sad. And the fact that the US government goes to great lengths to hide the illicit dealings of the Federal Reserve, which through its monetary tentacles, has prima facie control over not just US policy but also over sovereign governments, is an unprecedented failure in the checks and balances system that the founding fathers had planned when they created the United States of America. Yet saddest is that the United States no longer pursues strategic goals that are in the best interest of the majority of its citizens, but merely manipulates other, less powerful nations into a servile existence that only provides gain to a very limited subset of the American financial oligarchy. It is time for the Fed's unprecedented control over affairs, both global and domestic, to end."


Please take time to read the entire article and the 1975-era document which is attached in Scribd form. Lots and lots of juice discussion points here. Have at it.

I'll update later today if conditions warrant. I'm not expecting much, though, as both metals will likely remain in a tight range for most of the day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 31, 2012 - 10:25am

GOLDen slumbers fill your

GOLDen slumbers fill your eyes!

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:26am


Number 2

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:32am

Sad is the appropriate word...

The question is how does one...or a population...go about dismantling such an entrenched, parasitic elite? I have been asking myself this since BP trashed the Gulf of Mexico and became worried in the extreme when Fukushima happened. These were crimes against humanity, just as is the predatory financial terrorism forced upon so many by the war mongering scum who control most Western governments. Are we forced to pray for the destruction of that system which we were brought up in, to wish the roof would fall upon all our heads? I wish I knew the answer, and continue to prep while seeking a solution.

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:33am
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:37am

The Truth Shall Set You Free

Looks like us conspiracy nuts have been vindicated.

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:41am

Gold and Silver Lessons from Pawn Stars

These two segments involving Pawn Stars provide examples of three key characteristics for gold and silver. The two precious metals are a medium of exchange, unit of account and a store of value. These are also requirements for traditional money. Currently, the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world and is easily a medium of exchange and a unit of account. However, since governments and central banks have access to easily increase the money supply, the greenback’s store of value is being attacked by inflation...


Jul 31, 2012 - 10:45am
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:46am

Yesterday, GSR in accord with

Yesterday, GSR in accord with silver price development, made quite decisive move towards the uptrend support with a small break for the first time since March, so after straying away and up bit its back quite fast. That is encouraging and there is kind of triple top formation at resistance level 59,07.

At least this chart now is setting up for a serious breakout upwards for silver more and more with each day passing. Can not wait for final decisive turn down as that will allow me to "repair" my longer term silver and gold charts. Its seems initially that , by the character ( flat) of this price movement in silver since May and GSR since mid June, I will just have to stretch a certain period in gold and silver charts=move the same shape forward by at least 2,5 months. However, I have to look into those deeper- perhaps every 1,5 years requires and extra 2-3 month stretch, which would mean the top of silver-gold bubble would move to 2018, which is a bit contradictory to Turd's chart above with comparisons to previous bubble development here :


One may only think that this time, as the price of gold is also signaling certain collapse of current system, no effort will be spared to keep it down=stretch out (keeping it within exponential growth channel borders anyway) , including market rigging and legislative means ( taxation, margins, cash control, limits on possession, other new laws and regulations etc etc ) which will all be made into direction of suppressing the gold price as long and as low as possible against market forces=changing the rules in the market to make gold investments as unattractive as possible thus reducing demand.

So idea that this gold bubble will be ridden out longer than 13 years which signalled the length of Nasdaq and previous Gold bubble might be not so far from truth. Question is, how much longer this road to the peak might last ( I bet 3-4 years=16-17 years till 2017-2018) and what will happen in the meantime with possibilities to acquire, hold, sell physical PMs in each and every country, as well as in the futures market and how the prices for those transactions that will be allowed to happen will be set.

What will take place after this gold bubble collapses is also interesting.

1) Real estate backed money?

2) Phasing out of USD so the price of gold in USD will fall as USD will become more rare ( contracting money supply =deflating US economy- by the way, one of suggested outcomes in E.Griffins book "The Creature from the Jekyll Island" -which I HIGHLY recommend for anyone like me who wants to get fast general understanding of debt based monetary system in a simple and concise way with interesting narrative)

3) else way?


Jul 31, 2012 - 10:47am

Extrapolation of exponential

Extrapolation of exponential channel (log chart=straight lines) of silver within which it sits since 2001 till 01.01.2013 marks the most likely quite wide value range in USD at that date-none of them is bad from todays point of view, even if it trails along the lower border as it has done before- but most likely it will move up from that support closer to the middle. 40-49 looks quite realistic to me-it corresponds to the idea I am slowly cultivating that my silver chart here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/521022#comment-521022 showed the final raise 2-3 months too early. I am getting closer and closer to producing a new silver prediction chart, but not there yet. GSR has to clearly top out for that. But basically it (the new silver chart) could say 38-40 in September October, 40-45 in November-December with a pullback to 38-40, peak January-February 2013 at around 60-70 ( very difficult to predict the actual one), mini crash to 40-50 in March -April 2013. After that I will look at gold chart.

From the chart below at 01.01.2013:

Lowest: 35 USD

Middle: 49 USD

Highest:69 USD

Looks good to me!


Jul 31, 2012 - 10:47am

Yeah It's Boring

Yeah, watching the bullshit every day is boring as heck. The MSM news is all fabricated bullshit, the "official" report numbers are for the most part all bullshit, and the moves of the criminals running the country are so obvious it's also painful and boring to see.

At least 300 million people saying WTF? Nothing jives with reality. Cognitive dissonance is the order of the day. It's all just a land of confusion.

Video unavailable
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:48am

Or It's A Ball

Ball Of Confusion
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:48am

New USDx chart with prognosis

New USDx chart with prognosis 2012-2018. Little bit got carried away with speculative headings. MS- means contraction of money supply.

It comes instead of the old one from October 2011: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/521033#comment-521033https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/521033#comment-521033

Here is the new one:

All charts are here:


I have vacation hence speed of chart generation increases, but this is a repost.

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:49am

$1622.70 is not not going anywhere!! :)

Hi Turdites,

I have not been by for a while due to all the continuing idiotic posts of first!, second!, thurd! etc that is always on here.

A pity it is still happening and detracting from the good work Mr.Turd does.



Jul 31, 2012 - 10:54am

Good article

while you are killing time.

Snippet from within Joan's article. Parts in red are Maudlin's. This is from the part of our program we call "You can't make make this shit up".

The time frame is the mid 1850s/60s. Right around the time of the US Civil War. But we are in London. At a firm called Overend, Gurney & Co. Got that? Good.

This was a hot, steamin’ bank. They had a big business buyin’ bills of exchange at a discount. They don’t use ‘em anymore. But in their day, bills of exchange were the way the commercial markets got business done.

For the Newbies only: I am in France. You are in England. I sell you a cargo of X. You write a bill of exchange ( a draft) payable to me on January 10, 1860 drawn on the Bank of Oo-la-la. But I would rather not wait until the 10th of January. Because I have other fish to fry/business to push thru. So I endorse this bill of exchange over (sell) to Overend, Gurney & Co who purchases it from me at a discount. They then sit on it and collect full face value from my French Bank, Oo-la-la, come the 10th of the new year.

So what Overend & Gurney were doing was accommodating international trade thru short-term financing. That is the key. Short-term financing. They kept things humming along nicely. This was a function belonging to the free market system. And it worked very nicely until O & G got stupid.

Right. I gotta’ go with the idea that at some point they got a tad over-creative with their financing biz as the tide of the day was changing in that segment. Meanwhile, they had some nice profits, so they decided to invest them in long-term projects. Oh boy. They were short-term financing experts. Now they decide to go long-term investor? Uh-oh.

Well, this tack turned out to be a nightmare. So in order to raise cash, they went public (became a limited liability company which hid certain liabilities) by offering their shares at a big premium. Which got them liquid again.

But before a year was out, wouldn’t you know it, but the financial system was under a lot of duress in London. I’ll try to make this snappy as it could get quite long.

This is about limited liability companies. Laws were passed in the early 1860s in England to accommodate these entities. All they had to do was scare up 7 or more members and register as a firm. And bingo, they were relieved of a lot of the usual responsibilities such as disclosure. As you can guess, this was abused forthwith by some. In the financing sector in particular. Kinda’ like subprime: some of these newly-registered, limited liability entities were willing to lend vs. crappy collateral … and at much higher rates. So there was liquidity but at the end of the day, as always, no stability and that’s what eventually brought the house down. A bank run by any other name … is still a bank run!

So, eventually, London got its own “Black Friday” which involved the collapse of stocks such as railroad names in which there had been great speculation. (Think of O &G’s “long-term investments”!) Thus began the “Panic of 1866”, the catalyst for which was the declaration a day beforehand that Overend & Gurney, WHO HAD RECEIVED A NOTHIN’ DONE FROM THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO A REQUEST FOR AID… could not meet their obligations. (Remember that long-term investment portfolio? Right. Sayonara.)

Needless to say, Overend & Gurney went down the tubes which was bad enough. But the really bad part was that they took a boatload of other companies … including financials … down the rathole as well.

Aside: Gurney eventually got on its feet. And became part of Barclay’s. I just spit my tea out my nose. How funny is that, eh? It survived to go on another 150 years to make headlines in the LIBOR mess. <OMG, Murphy>

As the buffs know, O & G was located on Lombard Street.

Enter Walter Bagehot. Who wrote “Lombard Street: A description of the money market” back in 1873.

From his writings, developed what is known as the Bagehot rule. Which goes something like this: In time of crisis, the central bank must nip any panic in the bud. By making abundant loans … but against proper collateral and charging a premium.

This jibes with our opening quote which offers that the State can indeed step into any weak spot in order to facilitate the market if this action is for the common good. But they must not overstay lest they impose on our economic and civic freedom.

I think you need to subscribe for free to read the article from

Joan McCullough, East Shore Partners

make sure your read to the end.


Jul 31, 2012 - 10:56am

Trillions missing

2.3 Trillion Dollars 9 years later is Still Missing Where is the money

2.3 Trillion Dollars 9 years later is Still Missing Where is the money

Economic Crisis 9 TRILLION Dollars Missing Federal Reserve

Economic Crisis 9 TRILLION Dollars Missing Federal Reserve

11.3 TRILLION missing......?

Island Guy
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:57am

Proven Right Years Ago

Today's posting points out that we can point to proof from years ago and say, "see, we told you so." But let's not lose sight of the real, underlying message here: The existence of Fed and bullion bank manipulation was proven years ago, and yet it still continues!

That's the most depressing part of today's posting. It doesn't matter that the proof is out there. The manipulation continues, and even gets more blatant. What good would it do any of us to prove again and again that the manipulation is taking place, laws are being broken with impunity, and the agencies charged with stopping this behavior are actually in on the whole thing?

If Turd is right and the proof is already out there, and it has not mattered, where does that leave us? What options to we have to defend ourselves from illegal behavior.

Instead of being reassured by today's posting, confirming that we as a community are right, I am actually more depressed.

spotgoldprice ivars
Jul 31, 2012 - 10:58am


Why would the gold "bubble" collapse at all?

I see it as Soros meant "ultimate bubble" as in the last bubble not as in the biggest?

For gold to hit this high, "something" has to happen, like the end of the USD as the world reserve currency perhaps, so if/when this transpires, then the value of gold in USD will skyrocket....and continue to skyrocket as the dollar dies it's death and gold becomes the backbone of the new financial system.

What would then change that and cause this "bubble" or "gold basis of the new financial system", to then collapse?

Jul 31, 2012 - 10:58am

New TA from Alf via Santa

What Happened To Gold? – Part 2

July 31, 2012, at 8:51 am by Alf Fields in the category Alf Field | Print This Post | Email This Post

Dear CIGAs,

There are no certainties in the investment universe. Investors are forced to weigh up the various risks and assess the probabilities involved before committing themselves to a course of action. Current Elliott Wave and technical studies suggest that the probabilities now favor a strong rise in the gold price.

It may be helpful to consider my personal assessment of the various probabilities at different points in the recent gold market correction. On 23 August 2011 when gold pushed above $1910 my guess was that there was a 90% probability of a severe correction. The target for the decline, as given in my keynote speech at the Sydney Gold Symposium in November, was circa $1480, the point at which the explosive extension in the gold price had started.

Extensions have a good record of retracing to the approximate point from which the extension began, in this case $1480. Market action during the decline is used to fine tune a more accurate end of the correction. Gold never got down to target of $1480, stopping not very far away at $1523 in late December 2011. At $1523 all the minor subdivisions suggested that there was a 75% probability that this was the low and that the market would move into a strong upward move, probably the most vigorous of the bull market. A lesser alternative considered was that $1523 might only be the A wave of a larger A-B-C correction.

see more here: https://www.jsmineset.com/2012/07/31/what-happened-to-gold-part-2/

bam Island Guy
Jul 31, 2012 - 11:06am

@Island Guy

The last part of the ZH piece is the most important:

"As a post-script to all those complaining about gold, silver and other PM price suppression, here is one simple question: can one buy more gold at $1,600 or at $16,000? This is not a trick question."

Be happy. The game is in your favor.

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:09am

Yes, we all "hope" for some excitement

But we can hope all we want because until "HOPE" gets re-elected this November, hope is likely not going to work. Until then, lets enjoy this nice pretty range of 29 to 26 to 29 to 26 about 5 or 6 more times.... though "hopefully" less:)

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:09am

Fed Fear and Rigging

Thanks Turd. Can't say that I'm surprised after reading those articles about Fed manipulation of Gold prices. I think it folds into what most Turdites have intuitively known for some time. Gold is a threat to the Fed and to the Ponzi economy they have set up. They (the Fed) will do what's necessary to control the role Gold plays.

A read through the original Memo from Fed Chairman Burns is definitely interesting. The general tone is that they are afraid of free market Gold prices and that they are herding other Central Banks to fall in line with the US Fed. If the other banks (specifically France) do not, they would seek leverage to force them to fall in line.

Some salient quotes from the memo:

from page 4 wrote:
"early removal of the present restraints on inter-governmental gold transaction and official purchase from the private market could well release forces and induce actions that would increase the relative importance of gold in the monetary system"
from page 6 wrote:
"I have a secret understanding in writing with the Bundesbank -- concurred in by Mr. Schmidt -- that Germany will not buy gold, either from the market or from another government, at a price above the official price of $42.22 per ounce."

Bottom line in the memo - Mister President, get your Treasury Department in line with what the Fed on Gold pricing. We don't want Gold to trade freely. We will control it by whatever means is necessary. Gold is a threat.

Fast forward a few years from when this memo was written and the computer technology exists to automatically control and rig the Gold and Silver markets - I'm sure the Fed was happy to take the lead in that endeavor.

Certainly makes you wonder .. What would the true price of Gold be today if the restraints were removed and the free market was allowed to honestly determine the value?

El Gordo
Jul 31, 2012 - 11:11am


I continue to read about the need to stop Blythe and her monkeys from manipulating PM markets; that the Fed should be abolished because it is manipulating markets; that the bankers should all go to hell for manipulating markets; and that even Turd should be ashamed for pimping PM's or whatever. Well, my question is why do we want to change any of this? Aren't we stacking PM's as a hedge to offset the very things we are hearing complaints about? Personally, I think it's in my short term best interest for the whole thing to come tumbling down, but I don't necessarily pray for that to happen. Since I cannot personally do anything whatsoever to change any trades that Blythe makes; have absolute no ability to influence Fed policy, do not have the ear of any of the world's major banksters, and wonder why Turd continues to let me post here, I do the next best thing - I try to stack a little PM from time to time as a hedge. All the complaining in the world will not change it, so my objective is to try to figure it out and devise a plan to counter these evil forces. OK, that's all for now.

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:22am

@ Reach West

Interesting read.


The Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar Begins in Earnest
Following in Roosevelt’s footsteps, Nixon saw an opportunity to liquidate more governmental debt by taking the dollar off the gold standard. Naturally he seized the opportunity, and in December 1971, he increased the official price of gold from $35.00 per ounce to $38.00 per ounce. This same phenomenon occurred again on February 12, 1973, when the U.S. dollar was devalued again for a third time with the official price of gold being increased to $42.22 per ounce.

The Official Price of Gold is Only $42.22/oz.
For many decades now Americans have been allowed to own gold and silver and, despite gold and silver trading in the vicinity of $1200/oz. and $18/oz. respectively, the “official” price of gold is still $42.22 per ounce.

As such, all holders of gold bullion coin should take the “official” price of $42.22 per oz. very seriously when accumulating gold for protection. If not, you could be setting yourself up for a hard lesson in how our government may treat that bullion in the future. If you think that cannot happen read this:

In 1979 The Franklin Mint shipped a substantial number of Krugerrands on TWA. The shipment was lost by TWA, so the Franklin Mint sued to recover its loss at the actual market price of gold. In Franklin Mint Corp. vs. Trans World Airlines, the Supreme Court ruled that gold bullion values in commerce are limited to $42.22 an ounce. That’s all they received!

Could Gold Confiscation Happen Again?
The United States has seen four different gold confiscations — the last of which was in 1933. Few people realize that when the freedom to own gold was restored in 1972, the President retained the power to require us to surrender our gold which he can do again any time (probably on a Friday) with the mere stroke of a pen.

That means all confiscated gold could possibly be compensated at only $42.22 per 1oz. and not at the world market price. Don’t take this decision lightly. It is a blatant warning that the government may be contemplating grand larceny — AGAIN.

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:24am


my 1st post, been lurking for awhile.

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:24am

Bam just posted Alf

from JS, the line that stuck out: "Every time I made a forecast based on time, I got it wrong."

It going to happen, but the waiting is painful sometimes. Keep the faith.

Big Buffalo
Jul 31, 2012 - 11:26am

Since it's slow...I'm buying Facebook

when it hits $5.00


Dyna mo hum
Jul 31, 2012 - 11:34am

Facebook HaHa

Still " face down on the floor"

Jul 31, 2012 - 11:34am


Has anyone seen this yet?

I Run Bartertown
Jul 31, 2012 - 11:38am

Already on a bus

and good to go!

Only 30 on a bus? I've seen that many in a '72 Impala.

A busload of illegal immigrants has begun a month-long, cross-country tour of protests culminating at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., according to reports.

Approximately 30 men and women departed Phoenix, Ariz., on Sunday on a trip scheduled to hit states that have passed aggressive laws against illegal immigration

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/79183.html#ixzz22DLC8VGw


It would cost at least $94 billion to find, detain and remove all 12 million people believed to be staying illegally in the United States, the federal government estimated Wednesday.



The cost of harboring illegal immigrants in the United States is a staggering $113 billion a year -- an average of $1,117 for every “native-headed” household in America

Read more: https://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/07/02/immigration-costs-fair-amnesty-educations-costs-reform/#ixzz22DNR14fu


Amnesty Costs 70 Times More Than Enforcement

The cost of amnesty: $999 billion.
The cost of attrition by enforcement: as little as $14 billion.
Amnesty would cost up to 70 times as much as enforcing existing law.


Jul 31, 2012 - 11:43am


Fresnillo H1 profit dips 9% on silver price fall

Fresnillo has been hit by a 13% fall in the price of silver and says the cost of sales rose 34.5% compared with the first half of last year, fuelled by higher production and labour costs.

Mexican miner Fresnillo, the world's largest primary silver producer, said first-half profit dipped 9 percent on the back of weaker average silver prices and rising costs.

Core profit, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), dropped to $684.4 million, a better result than some analysts had expected, while attributable profit fell 25 percent to $366.7 million, also less steeply than forecast as margins held up

Fresnillo, also Mexico's second-largest gold miner, has been hit by a 13 percent fall in the price of silver and said the cost of sales rose 34.5 percent compared with the first half of last year, fuelled by higher production and labour costs.


The reason why Fresnillo's core profit held up better than expected is due to the fact that Fresnillo is producing a great deal of gold. It was its gold portion of the balance sheet that kept the company from showing a much larger loss. However, it does state that there overall ATTRIBUTABLE PROFIT FELL 25%. This is the profit margin. That is still good decline.

This chart shows that Fresnillo is actually moving more gold ore than silver. So, the increased costs in mining gold have hurt their profit margins more than their silver. Furthermore, the decent price of gold in the 1st half has kept Fresnillo's profit margins from falling even lower.


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