Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

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  75 Comments

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Zoltan
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:48pm

@clink

I would hold off for as long as possible before selling because we are still near an unnatural low price for the metals (even at $28). Hope for and expect that higher prices are coming.

Z

ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:45pm

Just had to burn my LP of Michael Oldfield's "Tubular Bells"...

...which I bought after seeing "The Exorcist". (Yeah, I'm old:)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Managing to squeeze politics into the opening ceremony of the Olympics on Friday, NBC hosts Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira cheered a tribute to Britain's government-run National Health Service, with Lauer declaring: "Back in the states...we're locked in this kind of partisan debate over the future of health care in our own country. Here, they feel so strongly about their health care system, they're actually celebrating it as part of the Olympic opening ceremony." [Listen to the audio or watch the video after the jump]

Read more: https://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2012/07/30/nbcs-lauer-and-vieira-gush-over-olympic-tribute-britains-government-ru#ixzz227oUkZPl

Short StackClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:45pm

Re: Sincere question...

Just MHO but I suspect silver will go up this week until Friday when the jobs report comes out, then TPTB will do their utmost to crash the price down.

If this proves to be the case, and you must sell, Thursday would be the best time to do so.

But what do I know. I'm just another turdite in the ol' porcelain bowl of life !

(No, stop ! Don't pull that lever you'll- Ah, nuts. Flushed again.)

ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:29pm

Sincere question for the great minds here...

...if someone (let's just say a friend) had to sell a portion of his/her stack due to lack of income (due to medical problems or whatever) would you ( the collective you) sell today while metals are up, or wait a day or two to see if the "surge" continues? My friend is simply looking for an educated guess and wouldn't hold it against anyone if their prognostication was wrong.

My friend (oh, for shit's sake, it's me I'm talking about:) has diligently stacked for the last year and a half and is bummed out that I have to sell anything, but life must go on (or so they tell me) so any, and all, opinions will be taken into consideration. Thanks in advance.

JackPutter
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:23pm

The why of silvers rise

I thought I heard that there will be an ending to CFTC investigation of the silver price manipulation, this is supposed to happen in August? This may result in an exposure of JPM positions, so there may be a short-dump happening.

Not really sure if I understand it, or have it right.

codematrix
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:12pm

Minning down Silver Up

I've seen this before. The EE is trying to sucker in buyers to later pull their bids tomorrow morning in the early hours of EU trading. Don't fall for this.

codematrix

Istack
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:11pm

Huge!

tiny elvis says that future silver and gold prices will be "huge" !

https://www.imdb.com/video/hulu/vi3437338137/

BobbejaanBe Prepared
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:01pm

An (almost) impossible mission, perhaps?

Quote:
Be Prepared asked :-

August is shaping up to be an interesting battle time. Will silver launch or rattle around the $26 - $31 range? Will Bernanke finally do what he wants to do and push the formal "print" button? Will Tom and Jerry ever end their epic cat and mouse chase?

The answers to your questions are ... Never, Maybe, & Probably.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Now all you've got to do is figure out which answer matches up with which question !

Should you decide to accept the mission, Mr. Phelps, I will deny this conversation ever took place ... This post will self-destruct in 30 years or so.

.

Byzantium
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:54am

Why the surge in silver?

I might be showing my misunderstanding, but in my view.....

it has been noted recently by Turd, Norcini & others, that the hedge funds are historically net short, at a time when the commercials are now net long, bar JPM who though the only commercial net short, is increasingly reducing its short position.

Looks like some hedgies may be bailing out / short covering, noticing that they are out of step with the big boys.

This might start an avalanche, else it will force JPM to add extra shorts, and face down the market all alone.

Zoltan
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:53am

Down the Memory Hole

Okay third time I'm posting this chart.

Now, will it show the spike or not? Currently on my screen it shows the spike (but if you click on the link the chart is flat)

My second chart (where I commented that the spike was showing) is now flat? WTF?

Please comment on whether you can see the spike or not. And then check back later, cause it my change again.

Z

Edit: Now it is flat, boy that was fast.

Here is the data though that it is based on.

Gold Lease Rates

July 30, 2012
1 m -0.0903% +0.2397
2 m -0.0227% +0.3356
3 m 0.0486% +0.4386
6 m 0.2164% +0.7231
1 y 0.5245% +1.0462

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