Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

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edvardd
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:52pm
FiredTF
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:40pm

Thanks for those charts from

Thanks for those charts from Santa, Turd. I was going to post them myself. Really gives folks "the big picture", in every sense of the word. Hang on to your giant yellow hats folks, its going to be one wild bucking bronco ride...

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:33pm

Two interesting charts

Ripped from Santa.

The first is a chart of historic 10-year treasury yields:

And you've likely seen this before but here it is again, nonetheless:

Torpedo Fish
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:31pm
BobbejaanClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:29pm

@ClinkinKY .... An Off-The-Wall alternative thought

Fair enough, Squire .... Sorry my original musings weren't any use.

.

Obviously I don't know your circumstances, but what about "The Bank of Mum & Dad" (or Brother/Sister/Rich Pet/etc) ?

Is there perhaps anyone in your close family that you could maybe arrange a Private Loan with, where you could perhaps use the portion of your stash you would (otherwise) have to sell as "Security" for the loan ??

That way, you could retain your stash, and the "Loan Interest" goes to more-deserving family rather than bastard-bankers or credit-card-companies.

.

I've made several similar such loans to family over the years (In my family, I AM "The Bank of Uncle Bob"), and IF this is a possible route for you I would strongly recommend drawing up a "Simple yet Solid" Legal Contract to protect BOTH you & them from "Judge Judy" scenarios ... IF you did indeed end up going this route, I would be happy to give you a copy of my own personal draft-contract which you should readily be able to adapt for your own personal needs.

Cheers

Bob

beardeus
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:15pm

Will metals rally or drop

Will metals rally or drop with the Bernank speaking this week?

Any chance we drop below $28 or further?

ivars
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:12pm

Silver is turning back to its

Silver is turning back to its exponential growth channel :

But at the same time I expect short outbreak of DXY to 88 very soon, followed by a mini crash (down to 84?) :

So where would the minimal silver price-cross of these two trends lie? Quite possible for it to happen within next few weeks, but at what silver value? My bet is no less than 26, perhaps close, as silver prices have lately diverged away from EUR ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/567147) but WTFDIN. Anyway, it should be a relatively short moment, then silver takes off like a rocket we all hope it is. But, so far 60-70 USD seems to be the sure limit for the first leg happening until somewhere in February 2013.

Vypuero
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:11pm

Have you guys seen this?

Ominous: Twitter has shut down ' account after complained about tweets he wrote that criticised its coverage.

It is unconfirmed, but his account is suspended.

murphy
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:00pm

from Quinn

THIS IS WHY WE’RE DOOMED

19 comments

Posted on 30th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

Jamie Dimon

I’ve spent three years of my life running this fucking blog and what good has it done? When you see the answers to this question from a random sample of 990 Americans, you realize that we’re finished. There is no hope. The willfull ignorance, utter stupidity, and general disinterest in the most important issues confronting this nation by the average American insures that nothing will be changed until complete devastation and ruin rain down upon this crumbling empire. It really makes it tough to get up in the morning.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=38114
Mr.Grey
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:51pm

Clink

Just do what you gotta do and don't worry about it. Thinking you might miss the boat on the big rise is only applicable to traders. I know I'm preaching to the choir but there are many things that have value in a post poop/fan situation, mindset and skills mostly. I think a man will rarely go wrong trying to do the right thing. Best of luck to ya!

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9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
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