Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

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  75 Comments

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edvardd
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:55pm

@ cowdiddly

This coin is Pushkin's fairy tales, one kilogram of

babaganoush2307
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:51pm

@ Edvardd ^^^

That is the coolest coin I have ever seen!

Punk-Assets
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:44pm
ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:35pm

On This Week's Edition Of "Egyptian Punk'd"...

...because there's nothing funnier than a kidnapping with gunfire and blindfolds.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Video unavailable

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In case you missed last week's edition:

TV Prank Goes Bad

------------------------------------------------------------------

WTF is wrong with these people? (rhetorically speaking)

cowdiddly
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:29pm

Damn Edvardd

Is that a hub cap off a Cadillac or a silver manhole cover?

agrock
Jul 30, 2012 - 4:22pm

@ turd .... hat contest

you should run another hat contest on when the next debt ceiling debacle rolls out (date of breach)

it will be so close to the election just don't know if this debacle will be 'pre-election' or 'post-election' </sarc off>

Sad what America is coming down to...

Treasury Admits It Underestimated Debt Needs, Predicts Ceiling Breach In 2012; $600 Billion More Debt In Second Half

Back on April 30, when the US Treasury, together with the TBAC chaired by Matt Zames (who as everyone knows is being groomed to take over JPMorgan after Jamie gracefully steps down) sat down put together its latest debt funding needs projection, we openly mocked the numbers when we said "Now obviously we are all for the US needing less debt, however we wonder: did the US discover some magical source of tax revenue: last we checked the companies with $100+ billion in cash were paying virtually zero taxes, and US workers were making less and less courtesy of more and more jobs being converted into temp jobs with lower wages, and less withheld tax as a result." Sure enough, minutes ago the Treasury just admitted what we and our readers knew all along: in its quarterly Treasury refunding appetizer, it noted that during the "September 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $276 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $60 billion. This borrowing estimate is $12 billion higher than announced in April 2012. The increase is primarily due to lower receipts, higher outlays, redemptions of portfolio holdings by the Federal Reserve System, and higher issuances of State and Local Government securities." In other words: if only it wasn't for that pesky lack of revenue and excess spending our mocking would have been for nothing. Alas, it was spot on, and as a result instead of needing $253 billion in fiscal Q4, the US will need $272 billion (after having a $5 greater financing need in fiscal Q3, calendar Q1 as also expected).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-admits-it-underestimated-debt-needs-predicts-ceiling-breach-2012-600-billion-more-debt

G00dfella
Jul 30, 2012 - 3:17pm

today

Too many people think this ISN'T the breakout, so it could very well be the opposite

Firedtobydaniel
Jul 30, 2012 - 3:09pm

Silver action

Up before down. Ben has a meeting tomorrow or the next day.

tyberious
Jul 30, 2012 - 3:05pm

Nice

I wish the Mayan's, Silver Libertads where in a smaller denomination.

tobydaniel
Jul 30, 2012 - 2:57pm

Todays action in silver

Im not buying it at all. The action is WAY too controlled. I mean spike up exactly at 28 and then a couple hours later a small spike exactly to 28.20. LOL. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Am I the only one who thinks that this action today is just way too controlled? If we were experiencing a breakout, this thing would be all over the frickin place. Not these pansy moves that a you need a ruler just to draw the preciseness of todays move in silver.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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