Quick Monday Morning Update

Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...

"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.


A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)


And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 30, 2012 - 1:11pm

Thanks for the responses...

...PM and public. This place really is a "community".

Thanks TF for providing it!!! (Most exclamation points I've ever typed:)

I Run Bartertown
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:14pm

No Rifles?

"Farmers in Fauquier County are planning to bring their pitchforks to an Aug. 2 hearing before the Board of Zoning Appeals to protest the arbitrary treatment of one of their own. On April 30, Zoning Administrator Kimberley Johnson sent Martha Boneta an official cease-and-desist notice for selling farm products and hosting a birthday party for her best friend's 10-year-old daughter on her 70-acre Paris, Va., farm without a special administrative permit."


Jul 30, 2012 - 1:14pm

Re: Sincere question

If you've only been stacking for a year or so then the chances are you'd currently be out of pocket by cashing in now. Silver is also down circa 14% more than Gold since April (ex $ variations), so if you've got a Silver stack it's got a fair chance of outperforming Gold at these levels.

Just a thought but have you considered funding your hopefully short term cash flow deficit through a credit card (0% for 24months here in UK at the mo). Cash in just enough physical to fund the minimum payments and hopefully your retained PM's will increase in price sufficient to repay the balance in 2 yrs?

ClinkinKY Maximillion
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:23pm

@ Maximillion

My DCA is approx. $30. Most of my stack was purchased below $32. As for your suggestion of funding shortfalls through credit cards, that's a "last resort". Thanks for your input. Appreciated.

Bobbejaan ClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:28pm


...if someone (let's just say a friend) had to sell a portion of his/her stack due to lack of income (due to medical problems or whatever) would you ( the collective you) sell today while metals are up, or wait a day or two to see if the "surge" continues? My friend is simply looking for an educated guess and wouldn't hold it against anyone if their prognostication was wrong.

My friend (oh, for shit's sake, it's me I'm talking about:) has diligently stacked for the last year and a half and is bummed out that I have to sell anything, but life must go on (or so they tell me) so any, and all, opinions will be taken into consideration.

Hmmm, difficult question .... For what it's worth, I recently faced a similar position over getting my dad's cataracts & macular degeneration done privately rather than waiting on the NHS (UK-equivalent of US-MediWhatever) waiting-list until many months after he became totally blind for it (eventually) to get done (by which time the AMD damage could be irreversible).

I was very tempted to sell some of my PM-stash to cover the cost as being "the easiest option", but was VERY scared that Sod's Law would kick in & make it hard/expensive to replace what I sold (now) at some unknown point in the future.

As my stash is primarily for long-term family-insurance & potential off-grid retirement-savings, I am personally extremely loath to part with it just in case the SHTF, so I eventually decided to sell off some of my old motorbikes & other non-essential personal-junk on the basis that these would be of lesser value in my old-age OR if the SHTF .... It is amazing how much "generally useless, but collectively valuable in TODAY'S society" Crap one acquires during the course of a lifetime.


If you deep-down believe that "a financial hurricane is approaching" (as many of us here do), have you perhaps got anything else "sellable / tradeable" that might become of little/no "practical value" in the event of such a financial shitstorm (or even just a sudden PM-price-rise) ? .... This might possibly allow you to fund your current needs whilst keeping your stash intact for a future Rainy Day ?

I hope my musings may be of some small use in your difficult considerations.




ClinkinKY Bobbejaan
Jul 30, 2012 - 1:41pm

Thank you Bobbejaan

Hmmm, going through my closets/storage space now. 8-Track player/tapes...no. Cassette player/tapes...no. You get the picture

(I sold off most of my "crap" a couple years ago when I "woke up":)

I sincerely appreciate the suggestion though.



Jul 30, 2012 - 1:51pm


Just do what you gotta do and don't worry about it. Thinking you might miss the boat on the big rise is only applicable to traders. I know I'm preaching to the choir but there are many things that have value in a post poop/fan situation, mindset and skills mostly. I think a man will rarely go wrong trying to do the right thing. Best of luck to ya!

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:00pm

from Quinn



Posted on 30th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

Jamie Dimon

I’ve spent three years of my life running this fucking blog and what good has it done? When you see the answers to this question from a random sample of 990 Americans, you realize that we’re finished. There is no hope. The willfull ignorance, utter stupidity, and general disinterest in the most important issues confronting this nation by the average American insures that nothing will be changed until complete devastation and ruin rain down upon this crumbling empire. It really makes it tough to get up in the morning.

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:11pm

Have you guys seen this?

Ominous: Twitter has shut down ' account after complained about tweets he wrote that criticised its coverage.

It is unconfirmed, but his account is suspended.

Jul 30, 2012 - 2:12pm

Silver is turning back to its

Silver is turning back to its exponential growth channel :

But at the same time I expect short outbreak of DXY to 88 very soon, followed by a mini crash (down to 84?) :

So where would the minimal silver price-cross of these two trends lie? Quite possible for it to happen within next few weeks, but at what silver value? My bet is no less than 26, perhaps close, as silver prices have lately diverged away from EUR ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/567147) but WTFDIN. Anyway, it should be a relatively short moment, then silver takes off like a rocket we all hope it is. But, so far 60-70 USD seems to be the sure limit for the first leg happening until somewhere in February 2013.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 3 min 25 sec ago
by Scarecrow, 2 hours 26 min ago
by Scarecrow, 2 hours 41 min ago
by SteveW, 2 hours 55 min ago
by NW VIEW, 4 hours 23 min ago