Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

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  75 Comments

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Jul 30, 2012 - 9:18pm
waxybilldupp
Jul 30, 2012 - 9:03pm

Europe on the brink?

After reading this evening's offering from Harvey Organ, it sure sounds like the Euro/Spain are on the brink. Nothing has happened to improve Greece's situation and Italy is on life support. It seems that things are rapidly reaching the point of no return without late-2008 type drastic measures as implemented in the US banking system. It looks to me like the bullshit and bandaids have just about run their course.

With that intro, here's my question: What is the thought here in Turdville about some massive FED intervention in the European banking system that somehow twists and turns it's way into some form of QE that feeds the US banking system as well? I'm not totally convinced that the "dual mandate" is of any particular interest to The Bernank right now. I'm thinking the biggest issue for our FedMeister right now is to keep our TBTF banks from puking on all the Eurozone debt they have eaten. Bennie and the Jets might be more concerned about keeping Eurozone banks alive so ours don't die as well. Their track record regarding employment improvement has been a dismal failure and they probably realize they can't do jack about it anyway. They don't give a rat's butt about inflation, and in truth, would probably like some. So much for their "mandate".

"Fixing" Europe helps the US two ways (is seems): 1). Goosing the Euro lowers the dollar, which, in turn, should drop the hammer on oil and PM prices. Bennie and OBAMA! would like that. 2). "Saving" Europe takes a lot of pressure off of the stock market which should goose equities, as well. A stock market bull run and falling oil prices would certainly put a grin on the ever-smiling OBAMA! face going into the election campaign.

What do you think folks? Is our next "QE" going to be somehow, someway the "salvation" of the Eurozone?

wax off

I Run Bartertown
Jul 30, 2012 - 7:22pm

Tail wagging the Dog

From Jamestown in 1607 to Yorktown in 1781, there was no federal government. There was no United States. Yet generations of colonists had built forts, cleared lands, created farms, established workshops. Americans fed, clothed and housed themselves, creating one of the highest standards of living on earth for 3 million people.

https://www.humanevents.com/2012/07/24/pat-buchanan-obama-america-and-ours/

How could the U.S. government have built the roads and bridges if the U.S. government did not exist before 1789? There were no public schools until the 19th century. Colleges were the creations of religious denominations. The Pell grant had not yet been invented.

Was government indispensable to Eli Whitney’s invention of the cotton gin, Robert Fulton’s invention of the steam boat, Alexander Graham Bell’s invention of the telephone, Guglielmo Marconi’s invention of the radio and Thomas Edison’s invention of the light bulb, and just about everything else?

Seeing government as antecedent to enterprise, Obama has it backward. In America, individuals, families, communities came first. Hardworking men and women built the society. Only after that did they send their best and brightest off to the House of Burgesses to discuss colonial issues.

Karankawa
Jul 30, 2012 - 7:17pm

Understanding Different Forms of Government

Ran across this somesimes back and think it does an excellent job in explaining the different forms of government. Though I'm saddened when I realize how far we have fallen from our true beginning, I find hope with the increased awareness of the Federal Reserve and the growth in Dr. Paul's message over the last 5 years.

Understanding Different Forms of Government
Short Stack
Jul 30, 2012 - 6:58pm

Property Rights

It's called Socialism. Liberal/Socialists are out to control everything. That's what they do. They want to control land, homes, businesses, our children and everyone and everything else.

Both Socialism and Communism lead to the same goal - Totalanarianism. (need a spell check on that) The only difference between Socialism and Communism is in the method taken to achieve the goal.

Communism is taking control by force ie. Russia, China and Cuba. Socialism is taking control by deceit and law.

QE to infinity
Jul 30, 2012 - 6:37pm
tyberious
Jul 30, 2012 - 6:23pm
tobydanielClinkinKY
Jul 30, 2012 - 6:18pm

Most crazy thing Ive almost ever seen

Thanks for sharing that. Im speachless.

babaganoush2307
Jul 30, 2012 - 5:12pm

^^^

So f'en epic!

If you don't mind me asking, how much you drop on that bad boy?

edvardd
Jul 30, 2012 - 5:03pm

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9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
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9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
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9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
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8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
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8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
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8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
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8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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