Quick Monday Morning Update

75
Mon, Jul 30, 2012 - 11:27am

Just a quick update. I'll try to come back with something more substantive later today.

As we begin what will certainly be a wild week, gold is coming back from its European lows while silver has surged higher for the fourth, straight day. With gold already near the top of its now 3-month range, there's not much to talk about. It will either break out soon or it won't. Silver, on the other hand, is quite interesting.

Take a look at these charts. All signs point toward silver heading back to the top of its range, as well. The first step is clearing the highs set in early July, near $28.50. Once that level is bested, it should head straight back toward $29 and the top of the range. From there, the key level will be 29.80-30.00. If there is going to be a Cartel line of defense, that is where you will find it. I for one, can't wait to see what happens!

"Turd's Army", led by Brigadier General Maguire, is having another outstanding month. Those able to precisely follow Andy's trades have pocketed another 5 AGEs and a tube or two of ASEs. I've mentioned before that plenty of very big dollar hedge funds, sovereigns and HNW individuals subscribe to Andy's services simply to get his weekly commentary. As a member of "The Army", you are privy to that information, too. This past weekend's commentary was fantastic but, of course, I can't c&p it in entirety here. I asked Andy, though, if I could copy the passage below and he obliged.

In this section of his commentary, Andy discusses the decline of The Comex and the rise of bullion banking in China and he references a note he wrote on 1/8/12. Great stuff.

"Another important aspect. We have noted some of the many ways China is moving to become the global centre for bullion trading, the latest factors being the upcoming introduction of international facing fully backed rolling spot contracts purposefully designed to compete directly with the LBMA bullion banks and soon the introduction of a Beijing gold and silver fix. This is all part of China’s bigger plan to move the RMB into the world stage on its way to being the world’s reserve currency. Since 2010, we have been reporting an accelerated move by China to purchase gold in order to facilitate the RMB becoming an internationally respected currency. This has been far above the quantities reported in the media. The reason for this accelerated move to purchase gold reflects Chinas biggest concern, not just the rate that the US is devaluing its currency but worst case, what if it is forced to devalue? For this devaluation to be sufficient (for the USA), it would likely be affected at a rate of $10 for $1 in order to front run a move to back the $ ahead of China as a global gold backed currency. It is no coincidence that in 2010 the China Business news wrote and expressed concerns on exactly this subject.
Another bullish piece of the bigger picture. After the MFG collapse we started to see an exodus of money leaving the CME exchanges. To save time I copied this form my Jan 8th Commentary...


"This change remains unnoticed and as I reported directly after my UK hedge fund meetings on the 3rd January, the bulk of the true ‘International investment’ funds that traditionally populated the Comex futures and options markets were, and now have, moved their very sizable flows into the spot and international markets. This continues to fly under the radar for most US centric participants. Spot, although somewhat opaque and difficult to discern, provides a much better read than Comex which is increasingly less reflective of wholesale activity. What is also missed by commentators is that it is for risk/compliance reasons a lot of prior fund demand has now migrated from the CME exchanges directly to the spot markets but what is particularly unnoticed, into EUR Gold and Silver. This has had and continues to have the effect of drawing down a lot of physical supplies and leaves Comex analysts scratching their heads as to why, without apparent long open interest, prices have risen, when in January they were forecasting prices $100’s below the December closing levels….”

Again, if you are an experienced trader or if you are interested in receiving Andy's insights on a weekly basis, just click the link below and we'll get you started.

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

A couple of other items...For those that missed it, I was interviewed back on Thursday by Kerry Lutz. I met Kerry at FreedomFest and he seems like a decent fellow. I apologize for the quality of the audio on my end. We'll work on that for next time.

The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets-Turd Ferguson--26.July.12

And if you haven't yet, I encourage you to have a listen to my Friday podcast at TTM. So much stuff going on that I thought I'd make it a freebie. (Obviously, I hope it inspires some to join, too)

https://www.turdtalksmetals.com/736-2/

And that's all for now. I see that silver is still hanging around $28 and gold is nearly unchanged while the grains are kicking some serious butt. I'll be watching the grains closely this week to see if they double-top or charge to new highs. Just another compelling issue for this very exciting and consequential week.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  75 Comments

ferretflat
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:31am
Be Prepared
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:36am

First-a-roni!

Turd.... you are really getting around with all these interviews! Thumbs up! I am super glad to see that things are really shaping up for you. I can't believe we are at the end of July already.... time flies...

August is shaping up to be an interesting battle time. Will silver launch or rattle around the $26 - $31 range? Will Bernanke finally do what he wants to do and push the formal "print" button? Will Tom and Jerry ever end their epic cat and mouse chase?

Thanks!

waxybilldupp
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:37am

I'll second that, Be Prepared

Where is everybody? Glued to the TV watching CNBS?

wax off

edit: What the hell happened? Just noticed the Italian and Spanish equity markets UP 3%! Did they win the lottery?

survivalwstyle
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:41am

Ag ~~ give us a break baby

fOOtbaLL starts this wEEk. are you ready?

edvardd
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:42am

Silver

Who knows the reason for the surge in silver?

ClinkinKYferretflat
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:42am

F...

...ourth.

(Just to piss off the "tradition" haters:)

Zoltan
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:53am

Down the Memory Hole

Okay third time I'm posting this chart.

Now, will it show the spike or not? Currently on my screen it shows the spike (but if you click on the link the chart is flat)

My second chart (where I commented that the spike was showing) is now flat? WTF?

Please comment on whether you can see the spike or not. And then check back later, cause it my change again.

Z

Edit: Now it is flat, boy that was fast.

Here is the data though that it is based on.

Gold Lease Rates

July 30, 2012
1 m -0.0903% +0.2397
2 m -0.0227% +0.3356
3 m 0.0486% +0.4386
6 m 0.2164% +0.7231
1 y 0.5245% +1.0462
Byzantium
Jul 30, 2012 - 11:54am

Why the surge in silver?

I might be showing my misunderstanding, but in my view.....

it has been noted recently by Turd, Norcini & others, that the hedge funds are historically net short, at a time when the commercials are now net long, bar JPM who though the only commercial net short, is increasingly reducing its short position.

Looks like some hedgies may be bailing out / short covering, noticing that they are out of step with the big boys.

This might start an avalanche, else it will force JPM to add extra shorts, and face down the market all alone.

BobbejaanBe Prepared
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:01pm

An (almost) impossible mission, perhaps?

Quote:
Be Prepared asked :-

August is shaping up to be an interesting battle time. Will silver launch or rattle around the $26 - $31 range? Will Bernanke finally do what he wants to do and push the formal "print" button? Will Tom and Jerry ever end their epic cat and mouse chase?

The answers to your questions are ... Never, Maybe, & Probably.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Now all you've got to do is figure out which answer matches up with which question !

Should you decide to accept the mission, Mr. Phelps, I will deny this conversation ever took place ... This post will self-destruct in 30 years or so.

.

Istack
Jul 30, 2012 - 12:11pm

Huge!

tiny elvis says that future silver and gold prices will be "huge" !

https://www.imdb.com/video/hulu/vi3437338137/

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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