A Weekend Pass

Sat, Jul 28, 2012 - 1:09pm

The charts are so compelling that I felt I had to update the site today. I've also got a special promo for you some come on in..

First of all, the charts. I was alerted to this development yesterday by this terrific piece of analysis from KWN. Tom Fitzpatrick of Citigroup is a competent technician and his analysis here is spot-on.(https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/27_KWN_-_Special_Friday_Gold_%26_Silver_Chart_Mania.html) The metals then closed strongly yesterday and we did, in fact, get bullish outside reversals in both gold and silver. Again, this is not a be-all-end-all indicator of a pending bull rush...but...it's certainly another log for the fire. Note, too, that even on the short-term charts, the metals have broken out of their recent pennants and seem to be setting sights on the horizontal, top-of-range resistance levels of $1640 and $29.

Trader Dan has posted some excellent charts, too. When you have a moment, you should check them out. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/gold-chart-and-comments.html

Yesterday's CoT was very, very interesting...at least in gold. The silver CoT was lifeless but at least it maintains a very bullish posture. The gold CoT is where the action was but, even there, it comes with a caveat. The survey was taken so close to August contract expiration that it was undoubtedly affected by it. Some of this will come out in the wash next week but, for now, the gold CoT was very bullish. Below is a C&P of my comments written shortly after the report was published at 3:30 yesterday. If you want to see the report yourself, here's a link: https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1343417555.php

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on July 27, 2012 - 3:02pm.

Let's start with silver because it is a non-event, big zero. The Large Specs added 500 net long and The Evil Empire added 300 net short <yawn>. The EE net short ratio remains at an historically low (and extraordinarily bullish) 1.33:1
Gold, on the other hand, was crazy. Now, keep in mind that this report includes a lot of selling and some rolling of the August contract. Therefore, it's a little distorted and some of this distortion will undoubtedly be worked out in next week's report. That said, check this out:
Large Spec gold longs fell by 14,389. That's a lot. The Gold Cartel, though, covered 18,696 short contracts (total at 302,693) and added 3878 new longs (total at 166,448). This is a net change of 22,574. WOW! The new net short ratio for The Gold Cartel is a have-to-be-a-misprint 1.82:1. Again and for perspective, on 8/2/11, three days before The Great Cartel Panic post the S&P downgrade of the U.S., The Gold Cartel was short 442,ooo contracts and long 155,000 for a net short ratio of 2.86:1. This means that since the beginning of The Great Panic, The Gold Cartel has been able to reduce their net short position by 56%!! Simply amazing.
The other item of significance comes from the Small Specs. These are the ultimate outsiders and the consistent victims of Cartel shenanigans. Last week, the Small Specs dumped 1,810 longs (new total 53,970) and added 4,782 new shorts (new total 30,702). Their updated net long ​ratio is just 1.76:1. Again and for perspective, at the peak of the speculation in early April 2011, the small specs in gold were long 75,706 contracts and short 21,747 for a net long ratio of 3.48:1. This means that, since 4/5/11, the small specs in gold have reduced their net long excitement by over 70%!! ​Again, simply amazing.
As you know, the CoTs are not the be-all-end-all of fundamental statistics. They are already 72 hours old and nearly obsolete when we receive them. They are useful, however, in helping us get a general "feel" for bullish or bearish potential. With this in mind, this week's report is simply another signal that the next, major move in the metals will be UP...WAY UP...and not down. Take that to the (bullion) bank.

Like the charts, the CoT must be considered as part of the whole of your analysis. That said, both the gold and silver CoTs are obviously quite bullish in regards to the Cartel net short ratios.

Clearly, the table looks set for the "explosive, hot and historic" summer I've been predicting for some time now. There is just one problem: The FOMC meeting this week. All of this....the CoT, the charts, everything looks bullish and this is almost exactly where we've been on 5 or 6 occasions this year. The metals move up and look, or even begin, to break out and then The Bernank opens his mouth and The Cartels drop the hammer. We could very well be being set up again. I can see it now. Gold rallies near or through 1640 by Tuesday, sucking in a bunch of new spec longs (Spec longs that just sold last week. See above.) Then, The Bernank "disappoints" and gold quickly drops back toward 1600. The new spec longs sell out and even go short. Finally, on Friday with a whole new, fresh batch of spec shorts to squeeze, a horrific NFP number causes the metals to spike back higher and we finish the week about where we began.

Now let me state this clearly: This is not how it has to work. The charts and the CoT look great and we are likely on the verge of a big rally. However, would anyone be surprised if the week plays out almost exactly as I've described above?

Because this is a complicated scenario and because it is such an important week ahead, I decided to make yesterday's TurdTalksMetals podcast available to everyone. As I've mentioned before, it is much easier for me to clearly express myself verbally than through typed text and yesterday's podcast was quite effective (at least I think so). To access the podcast, simply clink the link below. Once you're there, hit the "play" button and the audio will begin.


If you like what you hear, please consider joining the community. The feedback from subscribers has been overwhelmingly positive so far, so I think you'll find that it's well worth the money. Additionally, next month we'll begin interacting with some industry "heavyweights". Gonzalo has lined up James Turk to be our first victim guest and the plan is to let members submit some of the questions. After that, I'll bring in Andy, Ned, Jim, James, Dan...you name it. My goal is to get you personal access to expertise you wouldn't otherwise have. It's going to be very informative and...a lot of fun. (And if you've been holding off on joining while we worked out "the bugs", come on in now. The site is safe, secure and fully-operational.)

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend...emphasis on relaxing. Next week promises to be crazy volatile so get ready. Come back Monday with your game face on. See you then!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


SV · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:15pm

AG Up to $27.75, Gold Tier 1, Game Face On For Fiat Devaluation!


This is a pretty convincing number for silver! Quite happy with it! And with gold rumored to become a Tier 1, why sell silver to raise cash in market selloffs? There is no point to it with gold as tier 1. Since they trade together 84% of the time, perhaps political and financial decisions regarding the metals' status follow each other about the same:

Gold tier 1 no pressure to sell amid market collapse:



Hrunner · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:17pm


If SV don't want it, I'll take it. The Olympic judges have ruled that Eirst is not a word.

Louie · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:19pm


Feed the TURD!

Fr. Bill · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:35pm

One harvest away from disaster ...

Sorry if this is already posted. I've been Most Puny (pneumonkey fever) for three weeks and haven't followed things here all that closely ...

Because of the worst drought since 1988 the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a federal disaster area in almost one-third of all the counties in the United States - more than 1,300 counties covering 29 states, the largest disaster declaration ever made by the USDA. Only in the 1930s and 1950s has a drought covered more land. The United States Drought Monitor shows 88 percent of corn, and 87 percent of soybean crops are in drought-stricken regions
More here. Plus, I'm Furdth!
Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:41pm

Jim Rickards on Capital Account

He co-hosted last week w/ Lauren and they interview Rick Rule of Sprott US.

From Natural Resources to Currency Wars w/Rick Rule & Jim Rickards

I was very disturbed by his defense of Sandy Weill and the late 90s US Congress and Bill Clinton. These criminals knew EXACTLY what they were doing. They are not victims of unintended consequences, as they are trying to make themselves out to be. This is ALL about creating destabilization and chaos, that they use to get people to beg them for ANY solution, even one that will lead them into more bondage.

This is not CT. It is from their own mouths. How many times to we have to hear it, "New World Order", "World Government", etc? And this middle-ground diarrhea-of-the-mouth from Rickards makes me want to puke.

Good charts, Turd. Waiting for the hood.....

Urban Roman · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:43pm

1dth, 2dth, dth, dth, dth!

... whatever ...

I need silver to re-cross the $30 level for my 401K and such ... paper trading, yeah, I know. Need to cash that sucker out.

But I need it to dip so I can collect some coins.

Decisions, decisions.

TomMack SV · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:48pm


highest for me so far...lucky for me i am reinstalling software has this site been slow last night 7/27-28 ????

Eman Laer · Jul 28, 2012 - 1:53pm

Join, bitches!

And if you've been holding off on joining while we worked out "the bugs", come on in now. The site is safe, secure and fully-operational.

Mr.Grey · Jul 28, 2012 - 2:12pm

Fr. Bill

Glad you're feeling better, here in ne south dakota we are the garden spot of the state but it's getting dry again. 

Mr. Fix · Jul 28, 2012 - 2:14pm

That's progress!

Did I really make the top ten?

That's progress!

Monedas · Jul 28, 2012 - 2:28pm

The Tender Trap vs. The Bear Trap !

Wegiveup2 ! You could learn a lot from Dagney .... a smile opens more doors than a frown ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Show Them How Well You're Doing By Exuding Smugness, Impertinence and Good Cheer .... Like Me ! devil

murphy · Jul 28, 2012 - 2:30pm

Sandy Weill

Beyond that, I think that this is very telling. The financial institutions will do anything to avoid the ultimate free market solution — the disorderly liquidation of the system they created via default cascade. If high-ranking members of the financial elite are willing to talk about reimposing Glass-Steagall, they must be seriously concerned that the system they built is getting dangerously close to self-destruction.


Stoxxman · Jul 28, 2012 - 3:25pm
dropout · Jul 28, 2012 - 3:28pm


Getting Real;

I have been of the firm belief since the early Winter of 2007 - 2008 that we were heading for another "Great or Greater" Depression. Since that time, I now firmly believe this to be the case. When at the time, I discussed this with family and friends, I was strongly pooh-poohed by one and all. Most have now changed their minds and opened their eyes.

As put so succinctly in the attached video by Doug Casey, he believes that in 2007-08 we entered into a "Greater Depression" as this leading edge financial hurricane washed over the economy. He now believes that we are in the "eye" of this hurricane and that the back side coming will be much worse. I concur.


punchbowl · Jul 28, 2012 - 3:30pm

Olympics -- Nothing to see Here, Move Along

Oh yeah, just a typical Olympics ceremony. Hospital beds, dying happy patients, blue spirits looking at corpses, black souls, and a giant Grim Reaper casting spells while ringed by capstone pyramids with one eye are normal Olympic fare.

But apparently I (we) just don't understand British entertainment or Chinese for that matter. All of this nonsense is perfectly explainable especially to us softheaded ones.


note: video is a little annoying at the Mary Poppins part but perseverence is worth it.

And when does the "surprise" get unveiled?

a little disturbing? LaLaLa

PS Yes it is a little conspiratorial but not really. And it is the weekend. Thx for the podcast Turd.

Teach · Jul 28, 2012 - 3:43pm

You can see the economic effects

in Costa Rica for sure. I've been here 12 times since 07, and it started out as a boom, crashed in 08, struggled in o9, 10, and 11. This time, you can really tell that people just have no more holes in their belts for tightening. A lot of the people I have known that have lived, married, and had children here, have left. The choice was that or starve. Those that are still here, that I know, are talking about what their next move is and many are planning on returning to their countries of origin. I have been asked several times whether or not I needed an employee..etc. It is sad to see as these are good people who took the plunge, had the guts to live the dream, and are now being forced to accept that things are not working out as hoped and intended..through no fault of their own, just timing and global economic realities. Worse yet is the plight of those who were "all in" and have no market for their investments before heading for home. Hotels are flooding the market with no buyers in sight. Pura Vida mae.

dropout · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:16pm

@Teach Re: Costa Rica

Two years ago while on a Panama cruise, we stopped in at Puerto Caldera for the day. This port has a large cargo container handling facility. The onshore container storage capacity area was only running at approx. 10%-20%, with hardly any freight being handled in the covered warehouse.

Our tour guide was an environmental scientist, who 'moonlighted' on these cruise ship excursions to make ends meet.

Pura Vida

Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:31pm

Hi Monedas!

It's good to be an intelligent, confident woman for a reason:

When I kick in the door of the good ol' boys society, frown, and tell them to "suck it", they let me play.

Strongsidejedi · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:32pm
Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:38pm


Think you nailed it. The elite, no matter what century we're in, will never change in their thinking. And history tells us they wake up every morning now and make sure their neck is still intact.

It's coming and they are sensing it. They better make nice, and I mean very soon.

Just bought 1000 July13 Popcorn callswink

Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:42pm


Not sure what to make of this. The CFR is FULL of liars and thieves who are behind the MOPE.

tpbeta · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:49pm
Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:54pm


Here you go. Next time, take out everything between and including feature and &.

DEBT BOMB - The Global Financial Crisis Stripped Bare by Dominic Frisby
Desert Fox Dagney Taggart · Jul 28, 2012 - 4:54pm

Popcorn Calls

Too funny!cool

Something else to stock up on for the "duration"

Bound to be plenty to see.

Rico · Jul 28, 2012 - 5:36pm

Costa Rica

Are you guys talking about American expats running into trouble living there? I'm asking because you hear a lot about CR as a retirement destination. Is it coming unravelled? Can you explain why?

Lamenting Laverne · Jul 28, 2012 - 5:44pm

Debt Bomb Indeed

Although I thoroughly object to the perpetual use of wiggling naked women to sell any message, I have to admit this one comes across loud and clear:

In a debt bomb scenario Gold Coins WILL keep you covered!

(Maybe a new summer attire fashion statement ladies?)

Teach · Jul 28, 2012 - 6:08pm

Costa Rica

I would not say that it is coming unravelled...but it is definitely feeling the pinch. There are still people moving here for retirement, but it is a small fraction of what was going on in '07. The cost of living has doubled in the 6 years I have been coming here. Building materials are high...$12 for a 10 ft 2x4, gas is high...about$6 / gallon, food is high...$3.50 lb for hamburger, beer is about $1.10 apiece at the store, $2 to 2.50 in the bar. There is no real infrastructure to speak of..although the health care system is pretty good. Forget about the police or fire departments being there for you in any way shape or form. Security systems are a must. If you dig living hippy and are okay with a lap top and sound dock for a sound system it's all good. If you want a big ass house with all the trimmings and a new Landrover, prepare to defend it. Theft here is not looked on the same way as in North America. When the cost of living is similar to Canada (except rent which is way less) and the income of a police officer or teacher is under $600 / month, there is no legitimate way to get ahead. Personally, I am not that concerned with keeping up with the Jones's, but I still need a reliable car, a secure house that locks up when I am not there or am sleeping. I have had no really negative experiences other than the adventures of living in a place where you have to be alert and where the skill level is generally several notches below what we would call competent in Canada. The country is beautiful and the more outdoor way of living is great with the tropical climate. It's not for everybody...but I like it a lot here. The locals are a mixed bunch, some good, some bad, some jealous, and some trying hard to increase their skill level and competitive abilities. Oh...get a chain for your wallet! Pura Vida!!

Terp · Jul 28, 2012 - 6:23pm
Lamenting Laverne · Jul 28, 2012 - 6:29pm

@ Turd - Questions for Mr. Turk

I am not even a member of TTM, so I am not supposed to post questions at all, but I thought these two might be of interest to others than me.

1) Some time ago, GoldMoney introduced a Sales Fee option field, which was described as needed in case the market would see particularly great volatility one day in the future. Can James Turk explain what market scenario they were thinking about in a bit more detail, and can he confirm that it was not preparation for introduction of a sales tax implementation, that he may have become aware of plans for?

2) GoldMoney has suspended the feature of payment in gold or currency between different GoldMoney account holders, due to pressure from different authorities. This takes out some of the teeth that GoldMoney had as a viable alternative to banks and bank wires after the fall of the current system. What was the precise reason presented by authorities for not allowing the payment facility and does James Turk have plans to fight these pressures from authorities, possibly in court, in order to re-establish his position as an "outside the banking system trustworthy and safe deposit and payment facility"?

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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