Get Ready For Next Week

Fri, Jul 27, 2012 - 11:42am

Today's action, though disappointing, is meaningless when next week brings another FOMC meeting and the BLSBS. I hope you're ready.

Frankly, my biggest concern is that we've seen this all before. The Cartel allows the metals to rise in the days before some kind of Fed "news", only to rip the spec's guts out when the Fed, inevitably, disappoints. So, the most likely outcome next week is a rally on Monday and Tuesday as the Spec Sheep are led into the shearing barn.

The hammer falls on Wednesday and Thursday as the politically-handcuffed Fed "disappoints".

Then, a sharp rally on Friday when the BLSBS comes in lousy.

The Spec Sheep get sheared twice by being long on Wednesday and short on Friday. The Gold Cartel wins twice and laughs all the way to the bank.

{Now, let's get one thing straight. I am NOT trying to have it both ways. What I have described above is the most likely outcome for next week. Likely but not 100% certain. Regardless of what happens next week, I am still expecting a hot, explosive and historic summer and fall.}

OK, let's just wrap up some charts before we get to the weekend. First, The Pig. Where all looked strong earlier this week, the bluster regarding QEIII has buckled its knees, somewhat. It is still well within the channel that has driven it higher since late last year but, with all this talk of easing, it must be watched closely.

And a small note of caution in crude, too. In the short term, it looks fine as the more time it spends above 88-90, the more likely it looks to go tackle 93 and head toward 100. All crude traders most be cognizant, though, of this long term "dome" pattern. IF crude can continue to rally, it will eventually have to trade through 105-110 or it risks perpetuating this pattern and falling back.

And here are your daily charts for both gold and silver. Both look pretty good, actually. As you can plainly see, gold has broken free of the pennant formed by the Feb 29 highs and the May 16 lows. This is great but it is only step 1. For the remainder of the "steps to recovery", please read the text on the chart. In silver, we are still penned under the "Battle Royale" line. Do you recall that, back in late February, the line was near $36? Now, with the passage of time, it has fallen all the way to $29. This pattern must resolve itself in the next 6 weeks or so but I have a strong hunch that silver will break out and through well before then.

This week's CoT will be somewhat interesting. For the reporting week, gold was down $13 and total OI was also down by 11,000 contracts as August contracts were not immediately rolled into Oct or Dec. Silver was down 52c while total OI rose by 1800. Someone was busy creating new silver shorts at these levels. Was it the SSS (SpecShortSheep) or was it JPM? The CoT will provide some answers so please check back later this afternoon and search the comments section of this thread for my analysis.

Have a great weekend. Try to relax and have some fun. Next week promises to be exciting!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 28, 2012 - 12:53pm

@ bum in the library

Another reason why your question may go unanswered here. Many of us believe that GLD and SLV are just paper ponzis waiting to crash. While it may be okay to trade them very short term ( ala PTC) I wouldn't want to hold them when the big boys run for the exit with their phyzz and leave everyone else who don't hold a million shares in order to obtain the metal. As they say, better to be years early than a minute too late.

From JS Kim

A key weapon in the Central Bankers’ war to suppress gold and silver prices over the past decade has been the creation of paper gold and silver ounces that has little to no real physical backing. Current data provided by the CME regarding gold and silver futures contracts that trade on the COMEX reveal that about 100 times more paper gold ounces trade on this exchange every year than all the physical gold that exists in the world and somewhere around 160 times paper silver ounces trade every year than all the physical silver that exists in this world. By expanding the supply of paper ounces of gold and paper ounces of silver at the same time that real physical supply of gold and silver are shrinking, the bankers have been able to suppress the price of gold and silver from reaching its true free market prices for decades. The GLD and SLV very likely participate in this fraudulent scheme in helping to creating massive illusory supply of gold and silver that simply does not exist.

<read the above article to learn more about GLD and SLV>

Thus if gold and silver are freed from the criminal global banking cartel’s scheme to suppress their prices, this will help all people in the world, even the Doubting Thomases, to recognize the fraud of our current fiat currency system. Under our current monetary system, a businessman will never be able to receive the same value for the money he receives for any goods and services rendered unless he immediately spends all of said money. The fact is, it is impossible for a businessman that holds fiat currency for services rendered for a duration of time any longer than a few months to then receive the equivalent value of that fiat currency when it was first received. This fact about our current monetary system is a massive disincentive for any businessman anywhere in the world to work harder as the reward of additional nominal amounts of money can never be equivalent to the effort put forth. Thus, our “modern” fiat currency system literally destroys any chance to achieve sustainable economic efficiency. If a businessman works harder to earn 17.65% more money than last year, but that 17.65% boost in the nominal amount of money only enables him to purchase the exact same goods and services as last year due to an annual 15% inflation rate ($117,647 * 85% = $100,000), at some point and time, the destruction of efficiency that our fiat currency system imposes upon all businesses will inevitably lead to business contraction instead of sustainable business growth.

Jul 28, 2012 - 12:31pm

Getting ready for next week

Well, of course we should all be! I mean, how much crappier can next week be that we have not endured for an entire year in the precious metals? Next week will be a cake walk no matter what happens. I hear all of these statements like buckle my seat belt and be prepared. What the heck?! Be prepared for what? It going to 26.80 again and shooting back to 27.50 like always? lol. Common, if people are not prepared now, they will never be. Ive been stacking sine 2009. Its been a great ride but the last year has sucked. Regardless, I can still sleep well knowing that it aint going to zero:) So all of you that have been stacking, you hardly need to even be awake next week. It will be boring because I doubt that its going above 30. If it does, then it might get a little interesting. Otherwise, go back to sleep. My heart has not skipped one beat and will not next week either. After the elections... well, thats another story:)

Jul 28, 2012 - 12:22pm


There are a lot of people out there trying to set up schemes where you give them bitcoins now with the promise of more bitcoins later. You know what they say about something for nothing.

There are a LOT of exchangers that are run by the equivalent of 12 year olds, with poorly designed backends and poorly designed security. Be careful which exchanger you do business with. If it's one you haven't worked with before, do things in small amounts first.

I use MtGox and Aurumxchange for all of my BTC stuff and I've had no problems with them at all. I've heard horror stories about bitinstant and botcoinica. Stories that make you wonder how old the people are who run those places.

But if you use it for what it was intended to be - a medium of exchange first and a store of value second, you should do OK. I mean, with bankers jerking their customers around with ATM outages, your bitcoins are always as accessible as the internet is for you. If you can reach the Intarwebs, you can get to your bitcoins :P

Just stay away from the hucksters offering interest for your bitcoins or wanting to take your bitcoins and place them into some sort of investment pool.

QE to infinity
Jul 28, 2012 - 12:22pm

Regarding the expectation for

Regarding the expectation for gold and silver to go down in a 2008 style market crash. I have no idea what's going to happen, but it seems this expectation has been around for so long, that lately I can't help feeling that "if everybody expects something in the market, then something else is going to happen".

Bongo Jim
Jul 28, 2012 - 12:14pm

Thunderbirds are go!

Just not at the Olympics.

Video unavailable
Jul 28, 2012 - 12:09pm

@tpbeta- August crash & QE

If we do have an August crash, the paper queens will drive the spot price of G&S lower. If you don't mind risking it all in the casinos short the Euro Monday. When Merkel gets off vacation and squashes the idea of Euro bonds, go long dollars. When the crash happens and the dollar rockets, go G&S.

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Admiral Ag Bar
Jul 28, 2012 - 12:05pm

bum in the library

Yougotta drill down further on Turd's forums to answer your SLV and GLD questions. Try Palin's Trading Corner in the Silver forums. Most of us here on Main St. could give flip about entry and exit points in the paper ponzi bullshit. That's why your question goes unanswered.

This is Pain St. (as SW and Rico like to call it). We are the dumb schmucks who just stack metal and canned hams. Its all good, I love reading PTC - very smart folks over there. Interesting to hear about trading strategies and read the war reports from Granny (SW). Friggin good stuff. Should be a part of your daily reading assignment.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 28, 2012 - 12:04pm

"The Real Reason ‘You Didn’t Build That’ Works"

"Mitt Romney’s plan of blatantly lying about President Obama’s “you didn’t build that” speech is clearly drawing blood. But what makes the attack work so well is not so much the lie itself but the broader subtext of it...The key thing is that Obama is angry, and he’s talking not in his normal voice but in a “black dialect.” This strikes at the core of Obama’s entire political identity: a soft-spoken, reasonable African-American with a Kansas accent. " "I certainly do think that race is deeply embedded"

Jonathan Chait


A usual suspect spouting the usual allegations.

He's here to tell you that you weren't offended by the snarling tone and collectivist ideas, even if you thought that's what bothered you.

Jul 28, 2012 - 12:03pm

Something to Watch (Other than the Olympics)

Keep an eye on the Syrian news this weekend.

Here is a snippet of what's making news from the region, over the past 24 hours.

Jul 28, 2012 - 12:03pm


It looks like the bottom is in for G&S.

But it looks like the Dow should go down this fall.

And it does not seem the Fed will print soon... and they would have to print much more to keep the Dow from falling.

So: how will Gold and Silver react in this situation?

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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