Get Ready For Next Week

Fri, Jul 27, 2012 - 11:42am

Today's action, though disappointing, is meaningless when next week brings another FOMC meeting and the BLSBS. I hope you're ready.

Frankly, my biggest concern is that we've seen this all before. The Cartel allows the metals to rise in the days before some kind of Fed "news", only to rip the spec's guts out when the Fed, inevitably, disappoints. So, the most likely outcome next week is a rally on Monday and Tuesday as the Spec Sheep are led into the shearing barn.

The hammer falls on Wednesday and Thursday as the politically-handcuffed Fed "disappoints".

Then, a sharp rally on Friday when the BLSBS comes in lousy.

The Spec Sheep get sheared twice by being long on Wednesday and short on Friday. The Gold Cartel wins twice and laughs all the way to the bank.

{Now, let's get one thing straight. I am NOT trying to have it both ways. What I have described above is the most likely outcome for next week. Likely but not 100% certain. Regardless of what happens next week, I am still expecting a hot, explosive and historic summer and fall.}

OK, let's just wrap up some charts before we get to the weekend. First, The Pig. Where all looked strong earlier this week, the bluster regarding QEIII has buckled its knees, somewhat. It is still well within the channel that has driven it higher since late last year but, with all this talk of easing, it must be watched closely.

And a small note of caution in crude, too. In the short term, it looks fine as the more time it spends above 88-90, the more likely it looks to go tackle 93 and head toward 100. All crude traders most be cognizant, though, of this long term "dome" pattern. IF crude can continue to rally, it will eventually have to trade through 105-110 or it risks perpetuating this pattern and falling back.

And here are your daily charts for both gold and silver. Both look pretty good, actually. As you can plainly see, gold has broken free of the pennant formed by the Feb 29 highs and the May 16 lows. This is great but it is only step 1. For the remainder of the "steps to recovery", please read the text on the chart. In silver, we are still penned under the "Battle Royale" line. Do you recall that, back in late February, the line was near $36? Now, with the passage of time, it has fallen all the way to $29. This pattern must resolve itself in the next 6 weeks or so but I have a strong hunch that silver will break out and through well before then.

This week's CoT will be somewhat interesting. For the reporting week, gold was down $13 and total OI was also down by 11,000 contracts as August contracts were not immediately rolled into Oct or Dec. Silver was down 52c while total OI rose by 1800. Someone was busy creating new silver shorts at these levels. Was it the SSS (SpecShortSheep) or was it JPM? The CoT will provide some answers so please check back later this afternoon and search the comments section of this thread for my analysis.

Have a great weekend. Try to relax and have some fun. Next week promises to be exciting!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 27, 2012 - 12:09pm

Bitcoins attacked in Brazil

The action I think is just fine! Gold is broken out to new highs for this range, and silver responded nicely as well. Platinum seems to want to start to run as well.


Jul 27, 2012 - 12:13pm

I hope there is a correction

I hope there is a correction next week. Just got a nice cash infusion and I want to park it in a half dozen oz of gold! Not that $30 - $50 an oz makes much difference, just makes me feel better I suppose. Keep stackin!

Jul 27, 2012 - 12:15pm


hahahaha... 70 x 27.5! Love it, reminds me of...

The Door To Hell

Darvaza, Karakum Desert, Turkmenistan 02 - Gas Crater
Dagney Taggart
Jul 27, 2012 - 12:16pm

My "Twin"

So Ron Paul says "Audit the Fed". Why not stop paying them interest on something they print out of thin air?

AnnBarnhardt Vendee PT1
Dagney Taggart
Jul 27, 2012 - 12:17pm


No wonder the satanists are flocking to that part of the world under the guise of terror.

Jul 27, 2012 - 12:19pm

Directionless Market

Like many of you, I'd have thought the PM's would have broken out (up or down) long before today... near end of July.

Just remember that the longer time these chart consolidation patterns take to resolve, the closer we get to the seasonally favorable period for both the metals and stocks, which tilts the odds farther in favor of a breakout upwards, rather than down.

Am using this short window of stock market strength to lighten up on non-PM holdings.

Still sitting on my PM stack, ~pickaxe

Jul 27, 2012 - 12:25pm


Same stuff different Month.

It must be obvious by now that the only ones trading are the hft's and the boys playing with themselves. Especially when their move can be called waaaayyyy in advance (and the regulators are off **).

Nice how opex bleeds into FD notice, which leads to BLSBS, which leads into stock and option exp., which leads into....

It will only stop when it's time, or when all those uncommitted finally take a stand and say enough BS.

Stackers win. Stackers rule.

Jul 27, 2012 - 12:26pm


As Vinnie Barbarino would say... gimmie gas, gimmie gas.

Dagney Taggart
Jul 27, 2012 - 12:28pm


Isn't gold overbought relative to silver? Ah, you probably have lost so much silver in boating accidents that it's a jinx. Your lake is probably so fill it's about to give up it's secret.

Well if it were me, I would park the difference in a few ounces of used silver rounds. Give them to your kids/grandkids/nieces/nephews and have a history lesson. Again, probably preaching to the choir.

Good for you, being at the ready. I made a lighter buy yesterday than was planned due to similar feelings. Fortunately, the work can wait until Wednesday next so there's time to see where this goes.

Jul 27, 2012 - 12:57pm

@ DT

I buy gold/silver at 80/20 ratio. Not that I dont think silver will gain more percentage wise. I just prefer the stability of gold. Hopefully we get a little beat down in gold next week. If not, I'll still buy. The worst thing someone can do is continue to 'wait until it gets cheaper'. Thats a no no in my book. I know a lot of guys who thought 1200 gold was coming. It may yet, but I'll have mine stacked regardless.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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