Get Ready For Next Week

169
Fri, Jul 27, 2012 - 11:42am

Today's action, though disappointing, is meaningless when next week brings another FOMC meeting and the BLSBS. I hope you're ready.

Frankly, my biggest concern is that we've seen this all before. The Cartel allows the metals to rise in the days before some kind of Fed "news", only to rip the spec's guts out when the Fed, inevitably, disappoints. So, the most likely outcome next week is a rally on Monday and Tuesday as the Spec Sheep are led into the shearing barn.

The hammer falls on Wednesday and Thursday as the politically-handcuffed Fed "disappoints".

Then, a sharp rally on Friday when the BLSBS comes in lousy.

The Spec Sheep get sheared twice by being long on Wednesday and short on Friday. The Gold Cartel wins twice and laughs all the way to the bank.

{Now, let's get one thing straight. I am NOT trying to have it both ways. What I have described above is the most likely outcome for next week. Likely but not 100% certain. Regardless of what happens next week, I am still expecting a hot, explosive and historic summer and fall.}

OK, let's just wrap up some charts before we get to the weekend. First, The Pig. Where all looked strong earlier this week, the bluster regarding QEIII has buckled its knees, somewhat. It is still well within the channel that has driven it higher since late last year but, with all this talk of easing, it must be watched closely.

And a small note of caution in crude, too. In the short term, it looks fine as the more time it spends above 88-90, the more likely it looks to go tackle 93 and head toward 100. All crude traders most be cognizant, though, of this long term "dome" pattern. IF crude can continue to rally, it will eventually have to trade through 105-110 or it risks perpetuating this pattern and falling back.

And here are your daily charts for both gold and silver. Both look pretty good, actually. As you can plainly see, gold has broken free of the pennant formed by the Feb 29 highs and the May 16 lows. This is great but it is only step 1. For the remainder of the "steps to recovery", please read the text on the chart. In silver, we are still penned under the "Battle Royale" line. Do you recall that, back in late February, the line was near $36? Now, with the passage of time, it has fallen all the way to $29. This pattern must resolve itself in the next 6 weeks or so but I have a strong hunch that silver will break out and through well before then.

This week's CoT will be somewhat interesting. For the reporting week, gold was down $13 and total OI was also down by 11,000 contracts as August contracts were not immediately rolled into Oct or Dec. Silver was down 52c while total OI rose by 1800. Someone was busy creating new silver shorts at these levels. Was it the SSS (SpecShortSheep) or was it JPM? The CoT will provide some answers so please check back later this afternoon and search the comments section of this thread for my analysis.

Have a great weekend. Try to relax and have some fun. Next week promises to be exciting!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  169 Comments

tobydaniel
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:44am

First!

Finally

tyberious
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:45am

Friday

I was soooo close :)

Mudsharkbytes
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:46am

I have nothing to say…

…and I'm saying it well.

tobydaniel
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:47am

So anotherwords 27.50.... 30 more times next week?

LOL. We should have a hat for the person who guesses the number of times we hit 27.50. I say 70 times we cross 27.50.

Jul 27, 2012 - 11:48am

Baaaaaa

But I don't want to be sheared again already!

Jul 27, 2012 - 11:48am
Biochar
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:51am

the Olympic flame

Here is a cool Royal Canadian Mint video on the making of the medals for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Games...

https://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn/vancouver-2010-medals-2700002

Anyone in Europe that can afford to do so, I urge you to spend at least one day in London during the Summer Games. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry is a great feeling, even if only watching the events in a pub. Here are two of my pics from Vancouver and Beijing...

Doctor J
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:52am

But, Doc

You're not a sheep. The mindless robots and hopeless status-quotians are The Sheep.

Mr. Fix
Jul 27, 2012 - 11:57am

Oh goodie! My computer works

Oh goodie!

My computer works today.

Turdville rules

QE to infinity
Jul 27, 2012 - 12:02pm

Anyone in Europe that can

Anyone in Europe that can afford to do so, I urge you to spend at least one day in London during the Summer Games. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry is a great feeling, even if only watching the events in a pub.

​You are making the mistake of attributing your feelings to others. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry may feel great for YOU, but others may have entirely different ideas about what gives them great feelings. For my part, I wouldn't go near this stinking crap if I was paid to do so (unless the pay was just too good to turn down). Being as far from this ridiculous overhyped money-drain as possible does make me feel good though :)

​Britain is broke, 9 billion pounds wasted on this, and apparently former prime minister Blair comes out and says anybody who thinks it's not worth it is lacking patriotism.

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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