Get Ready For Next Week

Fri, Jul 27, 2012 - 11:42am

Today's action, though disappointing, is meaningless when next week brings another FOMC meeting and the BLSBS. I hope you're ready.

Frankly, my biggest concern is that we've seen this all before. The Cartel allows the metals to rise in the days before some kind of Fed "news", only to rip the spec's guts out when the Fed, inevitably, disappoints. So, the most likely outcome next week is a rally on Monday and Tuesday as the Spec Sheep are led into the shearing barn.

The hammer falls on Wednesday and Thursday as the politically-handcuffed Fed "disappoints".

Then, a sharp rally on Friday when the BLSBS comes in lousy.

The Spec Sheep get sheared twice by being long on Wednesday and short on Friday. The Gold Cartel wins twice and laughs all the way to the bank.

{Now, let's get one thing straight. I am NOT trying to have it both ways. What I have described above is the most likely outcome for next week. Likely but not 100% certain. Regardless of what happens next week, I am still expecting a hot, explosive and historic summer and fall.}

OK, let's just wrap up some charts before we get to the weekend. First, The Pig. Where all looked strong earlier this week, the bluster regarding QEIII has buckled its knees, somewhat. It is still well within the channel that has driven it higher since late last year but, with all this talk of easing, it must be watched closely.

And a small note of caution in crude, too. In the short term, it looks fine as the more time it spends above 88-90, the more likely it looks to go tackle 93 and head toward 100. All crude traders most be cognizant, though, of this long term "dome" pattern. IF crude can continue to rally, it will eventually have to trade through 105-110 or it risks perpetuating this pattern and falling back.

And here are your daily charts for both gold and silver. Both look pretty good, actually. As you can plainly see, gold has broken free of the pennant formed by the Feb 29 highs and the May 16 lows. This is great but it is only step 1. For the remainder of the "steps to recovery", please read the text on the chart. In silver, we are still penned under the "Battle Royale" line. Do you recall that, back in late February, the line was near $36? Now, with the passage of time, it has fallen all the way to $29. This pattern must resolve itself in the next 6 weeks or so but I have a strong hunch that silver will break out and through well before then.

This week's CoT will be somewhat interesting. For the reporting week, gold was down $13 and total OI was also down by 11,000 contracts as August contracts were not immediately rolled into Oct or Dec. Silver was down 52c while total OI rose by 1800. Someone was busy creating new silver shorts at these levels. Was it the SSS (SpecShortSheep) or was it JPM? The CoT will provide some answers so please check back later this afternoon and search the comments section of this thread for my analysis.

Have a great weekend. Try to relax and have some fun. Next week promises to be exciting!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


tobydaniel · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:44am



tyberious · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:45am


I was soooo close :)

Mudsharkbytes · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:46am

I have nothing to say…

…and I'm saying it well.

tobydaniel · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:47am

So anotherwords 27.50.... 30 more times next week?

LOL. We should have a hat for the person who guesses the number of times we hit 27.50. I say 70 times we cross 27.50.

· Jul 27, 2012 - 11:48am


But I don't want to be sheared again already!

· Jul 27, 2012 - 11:48am
Biochar · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:51am

the Olympic flame

Here is a cool Royal Canadian Mint video on the making of the medals for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Games...

Anyone in Europe that can afford to do so, I urge you to spend at least one day in London during the Summer Games. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry is a great feeling, even if only watching the events in a pub. Here are two of my pics from Vancouver and Beijing...

Doctor J · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:52am

But, Doc

You're not a sheep. The mindless robots and hopeless status-quotians are The Sheep.

Mr. Fix · Jul 27, 2012 - 11:57am

Oh goodie! My computer works

Oh goodie!

My computer works today.

Turdville rules

QE to infinity · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:02pm

Anyone in Europe that can

Anyone in Europe that can afford to do so, I urge you to spend at least one day in London during the Summer Games. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry is a great feeling, even if only watching the events in a pub.

​You are making the mistake of attributing your feelings to others. Being a part of the Olympic pageantry may feel great for YOU, but others may have entirely different ideas about what gives them great feelings. For my part, I wouldn't go near this stinking crap if I was paid to do so (unless the pay was just too good to turn downsmiley). Being as far from this ridiculous overhyped money-drain as possible does make me feel good though :)

​Britain is broke, 9 billion pounds wasted on this, and apparently former prime minister Blair comes out and says anybody who thinks it's not worth it is lacking patriotism.angry

SV · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:09pm

Bitcoins attacked in Brazil

The action I think is just fine! Gold is broken out to new highs for this range, and silver responded nicely as well. Platinum seems to want to start to run as well.


Punk-Assets · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:13pm

I hope there is a correction

I hope there is a correction next week. Just got a nice cash infusion and I want to park it in a half dozen oz of gold! Not that $30 - $50 an oz makes much difference, just makes me feel better I suppose. Keep stackin!

Xeno · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:15pm


hahahaha... 70 x 27.5! Love it, reminds me of...

The Door To Hell

Darvaza, Karakum Desert, Turkmenistan 02 - Gas Crater
Dagney Taggart · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:16pm

My "Twin"

So Ron Paul says "Audit the Fed". Why not stop paying them interest on something they print out of thin air?

AnnBarnhardt Vendee PT1
Dagney Taggart · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:17pm


No wonder the satanists are flocking to that part of the world under the guise of terror.

pickaxe · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:19pm

Directionless Market

Like many of you, I'd have thought the PM's would have broken out (up or down) long before today... near end of July.

Just remember that the longer time these chart consolidation patterns take to resolve, the closer we get to the seasonally favorable period for both the metals and stocks, which tilts the odds farther in favor of a breakout upwards, rather than down.

Am using this short window of stock market strength to lighten up on non-PM holdings.

Still sitting on my PM stack, ~pickaxe

Xeno · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:25pm


Same stuff different Month.

It must be obvious by now that the only ones trading are the hft's and the boys playing with themselves. Especially when their move can be called waaaayyyy in advance (and the regulators are off **).

Nice how opex bleeds into FD notice, which leads to BLSBS, which leads into stock and option exp., which leads into....

It will only stop when it's time, or when all those uncommitted finally take a stand and say enough BS.

Stackers win. Stackers rule.

Xeno · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:26pm


As Vinnie Barbarino would say... gimmie gas, gimmie gas.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:28pm


Isn't gold overbought relative to silver? Ah, you probably have lost so much silver in boating accidents that it's a jinx. Your lake is probably so fill it's about to give up it's secret.

Well if it were me, I would park the difference in a few ounces of used silver rounds. Give them to your kids/grandkids/nieces/nephews and have a history lesson. Again, probably preaching to the choir.

Good for you, being at the ready. I made a lighter buy yesterday than was planned due to similar feelings. Fortunately, the work can wait until Wednesday next so there's time to see where this goes.

Punk-Assets · Jul 27, 2012 - 12:57pm

@ DT

I buy gold/silver at 80/20 ratio. Not that I dont think silver will gain more percentage wise. I just prefer the stability of gold. Hopefully we get a little beat down in gold next week. If not, I'll still buy. The worst thing someone can do is continue to 'wait until it gets cheaper'. Thats a no no in my book. I know a lot of guys who thought 1200 gold was coming. It may yet, but I'll have mine stacked regardless. 

beinki · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:00pm

Who says you can't eat SILVER

I drink my colloidal silver nearly every day and have turned on many friends and relatives to the endless uses of ionic and true colloidal silver. Fellow turdites check out my testimonials. Stay safe.

gearhead_24 Punk-Assets · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:16pm


I just love your avatar. I gotta know, was that you when you were a baby? :-)


Igiveup2 · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:21pm

What you wish for

To those of you who incessantly blather about hoping for lower prices on gold and silver so you can buy an extra silver round next week "on sale", there are likely a large number of investors on this site who have some serious money invested in PMs who are not interested in buying a couple of rounds next week at a discount. If silver goes down a buck next week, you save $3.00 on your next purchase and they lose thousands on their investment. I realize your blather doesn't change the market price but it annoys the shit out of me.

Punk-Assets · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:22pm

@ gearhead_24

No, thats me now. lmao

Excalibur · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:24pm

In case you missed it. Too good not to repost.

From the Slog (John Ward):

Obama against Romney: Butterfingers v Sticky fingers

Americans must choose: do they want an incompetent gamekeeper, or an inveterate poacher?

The President in Office is Barack Obama. This is a brief resumé of his First Term:

1. Repeated signs of economic and fiscal illiteracy

2. Ignorant on Europe and chilly towards the traditionally reliable US ally, Great Britain

3. Pushes through a Public Health Bill during the worst deficit in American history

4. Fails to regulate Wall Street, or bring serious felons to justice

5. Obfuscates and dissembles about the American economy, and then gets found out

6. Fails to exert any influence over the collapse of the eurozone

7. Reaches out to Islam, and gets a spit in the face for his trouble

8. Introduces a Mortgage Relief Bill that costs billions and achieves zilch

9. Fails to use status as President to end deficit wrangle in Congress

10. Takes naive view of Arab Middle East rebellions.

The Republican challenger is Mitt Romney. These are his credentials for restoring American wellbeing:

1. Achieves support for his first Wealth Fund from international fraudster Robert Maxwell, San Salvadorean drug families, and Guinness booze perjurer

2. Makes $100m profit from buying and floating Ampad, 1992-96, during which period the company sees 53% compound growth. Ampad then ‘sees profit fall-off’, sues for bankruptcy in 2001. Investors lose their shirts.

3. 1993, Romney aquires Armco, plant closes 2003, all workers lose their jobs, creditors lose $553m….but somehow Romney’s Bain declares $58.4m profit, alongside a $44m hole in the Company pension fund. (Very Maxwell, that one)

4. In some 30% of all Bain deals, Romney moves jobs offshore, thus adding to US unemployment

5. By the time Romney leaves Bain to run 2002 Winter Olympics, it is revealed by SEC that he is 100% shareholder. Takes little role in running Bain but keeps all the action for himself.

6. In 2007, Howard Anderson, a professor at M.I.T.’s Sloan School of Management, tells the Boston Globe “Bain Capital is the model of how to leverage brain power to make money.” Cites closure of factories, elimination of jobs, use of tax-sheltered offshore accounts, and driving the companies it had bought into bankruptcy as the key factors defining Bain Strategy. (Pure Gordon Gecko)

7. Attacks Tim Geithner for tax avoidance, but keeps most of his fortune in offshore tax havens

8. During 2011 candidature run-in, steadfastly refuses to release any data on his tax affairs from before 2010

9. Staunch Republican Rick Perry observes “something inherently wrong when getting rich off failure and sticking it to someone else” are Romney’s modus operandi.

10. Vows to restore Special Relationship, visits London and predicts Brits might cock up the entire Olympic Games event.

So there you have it America: it’s a guy who promises to do something good, and then does nothing at all; or a guy who promises he’ll put things right in the future, having done all the wrong things in the past.

Seems to me it’s a clear choice. That’s democracy, my friends. So make your vote count.

tyberious · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:25pm

Greenspan's Golden Testimony & After the Crash

I've had quite a few people send me emails doubting that Harry Reid is working with the Good Guys to assist in the take down of the Banksters. Nothing new for the long time followers of the Road to Roota. In the "conspiracy world" often times Black is White and White is Black. Mark my words: the Senate WILL pass the Audit the Fed Bill - WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT. One day the truth will also come out supporting my analysis of Greenspan, Feinstein, Volcker, Frank, Palin and many of the others that on the surface seem to be Bad Guys but are actually working, covertly, to return us to our Constitutional form of government. Greenspan being a Good Guy continues to be my most controversial call. Not because of what we all agree on - HE DESTROYED OUR MONETARY SYSTEM...but rather on WHY he did it. Here's one of my favorite articles on the Road to Roota website. Greenspan's Golden Testimony
Once you understand the truth about what has gone on behind the scenes you will see that we are moments away from shedding the corrupt and evil controllers that have been our silent masters for so long. It looks very murky on the surface but time and time again we move closer to the fulfillment of the original hypothesis of the Road to Roota Theory...that there is a group of "Good Guys" working behind the scenes to destroy the "Powers That Be" and the Global Un-Backed Fiat Monetary System in order to return us to Constitutional form of government with a sound Gold and Silver monetary system. This process will ultimately destroy all forms of electronic and paper money totally leveling the playing field. The people of the United States will then have to make a choice. Do we run fearfully into the arms of our past Controllers or do we stand up and and say NO MORE...embrace our Constitution...embrace our Liberty...and move forward into the future. For those new to the Road to Roota Theory here's one of my most popular interviews on Youtube with Sean of This interview was recorded in Feb 2011 and still holds true to this day. Bix Weir: After The Crash For those of you thinking that the world can't get much crazier I'd like to state for the record... August rock you to your core! May the Road you choose be the Right Road. Bix Weir

murphy · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:26pm


Are you the E-Trade actor?

onealpha · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:29pm

Sound Familiar?

Hundreds of thousands of rouble notes are being issued daily by our treasury. This is done, not in order to fill the coffers of the State with practically worthless paper, but with the deliberate intention of destroying the value of money as a means of payment. There is no justification for the existence of money in the Bolshevik state, where the necessities of life shall be paid for by work alone. Experience has taught us it is impossible to root out the evils of capitalism merely by confiscation and expropriation, for however ruthlessly such measures may be applied, astute speculators and obstinate survivors of the capitalist classes will always manage to evade them and continue to corrupt the life of the community. The simplest way to exterminate the very spirit of capitalism is therefore to flood the country with notes of a high face-value without financial guarantees of any sort. Already even a hundred-rouble note is almost worthless in Russia. Soon even the simplest peasant will realize that it is only a scrap of paper, not worth more than the rags from which it is manufactured. Men will cease to covet and hoard it so soon as they discover it will not buy anything, and the great illusion of the value and power of money, on which the capitalist state is based will have been definitely destroyed. This is the real reason why our presses are printing rouble bills day and night, without rest.

~ Vladimir Ilvich Ulianoff Lenin, ‘Interview’, Daily Chronicle (London) and New York Times, April 23, 1919.

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they can not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers’, who are the object of hatred by the bourgeoisie, whom the inflation has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does so in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

~ John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, London: Macmillan, 1919

Harald · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:43pm

Silver rising into the close.

Silver rising into the close. Must have a rookie at the controls today. Blythe is probably in the Hamptons.

tmosley Igiveup2 · Jul 27, 2012 - 1:46pm


Feel free to sell your silver then, weak hand.

If you ain't buyin', you're dyin'.

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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
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11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
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11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
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11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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