CoT Tuesday & Option Expiry = No Fun

Tue, Jul 24, 2012 - 10:34am

As we wait to see if Tuesday will be "Happy" or "Terrible", here are some items to help you pass the time.

First up, we had a nice pop this morning in the metals. Nothing of real consequence but it's still better than a sharp drop. Again, no one should get overly excited or committal until after August gold option expiration on Thursday. Until then, we'll likely fight a losing battle against the Forces of Darkness, centered around the 50-day moving average, near 1585.

Now that TTM is finally operating like a "normal" website, it appears that Gonzalo has a little more time on his hands. He has written an excellent piece on Spain where his current thinking is that they will be forced to exit the euro by September. Yikes! With the Spanish 10-year at 7.57%, he may be right. ( & (

Along those lines, that Bruce Krasting guy posted this interesting item at ZH a few days ago. Several very compelling insights contained therein:

Our pal, Ned, was kind enough to pass along the latest copy of John Butler's "Amphora Report" and I've tried to c&p it below. Ned has also promised an update soon on NASE (Ned & Andy's Silver Emporium). Obviously, there have been delays but nothing terminal. I'll pass along whatever info he provides.

These nice people were kind enough to craft an info-graphic that attempts to explain the LIEbor scandal. They sent it to me via email and asked if I would post it. I gladly oblige. ( (Click here to see a full size version.)

This last article was posted to ZH yesterday and I saw that several folks linked to it in the comments here. JS was kind enough to send it me directly, as well, so I thought I'd include it today. (

Finally, I got the break in soybeans that I was hoping for. I posted the chart below last evening when beans were down over $1 in just 24 hours. WOW! Now let's see if they can recover and rally further. The forecast for the next few days is for a break in the heat and, perhaps, some rain. The heat is forecast to return with a vengeance next week, though, so I'm looking to buy some Nov Bean calls today. I'll keep you posted.

That's all for now. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


proformatrillionaire · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:38am


again? That is something like five times now. I will buy a sleeve of silver eagles to celebrate on the next down day.

50Jim · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:39am

lift your heads up

I think it is about to burst upward in the next few weeks. So keep it calm, be kind to one another our time to "lift our heads up, because our deliverence is near" 

El Gordo · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:40am


Had a comment but got so excited that I forgot it.

tmosley · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:41am

Turd, FYI, it looks like the


FYI, it looks like the infographic is significantly lower res than the one at their website. I can't even read it on yours when blown up.

DayStar · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:46am

Well, silver tried to go

Well, silver tried to go green at 27.10 and they beat it back down again.


agNau · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:50am


Good for the pocketbook?

Senseosensei · Jul 24, 2012 - 10:51am

Another HAARP related story

It connected an awful lot of dots for me. Looking forward to your comments about it in the forum.

dropout · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:00am

Big Miss

Richmond fed comes in at a -17 with expectations of a -3

Worst since April 2009

Mickey · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:04am


A little patience is required here--we have the fundamentals on our side and no faith in not only our govt to do the right thing but most other governments.

I personally know a guy who is running for congress--a liberal--pretty far left liberal who is campaigning on keeping all the "entitlements"

His career was less than exemplary so he is now trying his hand at politics. He married into wealth (one of the smart things he did) but just does not "get it". He will likely be elected (without my vote) and further the divide in DC and exacerbate the problems in the coming years.

Hence, I feel comfortable with PM.

(but I too lose patience with the BS and need to be reminded to keep level headed)

PS--one of his favorite lines is that we are a wealthy country so its embarrassing we do not have health care for all.

I learned in B school that you can have a profitable company but go BK due to lack of cash.

Fr. Bill · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:11am

Mayor Turd's Moxy

Grazing through the links Mayor Turd provided above, I found something in The Underground Investor link that exactly reproduces what I've read Mayor Turd to affirm on any number of occasions. Here -- in someone else's words -- is the important point:

 In fact, there are enough of us that have tweeted exact times and dates that gold would suffer significant drops in price just hours before it happened as if on cue.Our ability to do so has nothing to do with ingenuity but merely is due to the very simple realization of certain rigging patterns the cartel employs, a fact that should be impossible if the gold and silver markets were indeed free. I don’t want to waste any more time and energy on the bankers’ rigging of gold/silver prices lower other than to say that only the most naïve of naïve people can honestly believe that the same banks that would willingly collude to control LIBOR rates in an inappropriate manner would never collude to rig gold and silver prices (lower) in their favor as well. Maybe the tooth fairy and Santa Claus still does exist after all and I just am ignorant of this fact too.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:25am

Thursday, we ride.

"Strap-on" ready.....

Loud Noises · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:31am

Last thread, "explosive and historic"

I caught the very end of the last thread replying to I Run Bartertown so I thought I'd repost here because I'm also interested to see what people think "explosive and historic" would mean for silver. My take:

From here, I would consider $40 an explosive move. To qualify as historic, we really need to break and hold above the $50 nominal high. Considering the move we saw in March/April 2011, I think that move (minus the beat down) would need to be extended and sustained at higher levels to truly qualify as explosive and historic. 

I'm no trader but I'm sure that TF chose those words with care.

Mickey · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:32am


I say Friday after option on futures expiration. Maybe Thursday PM.

worldend666 · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:35am

Spain exiting euro

An interesting thought: Once an EU country defaults there is no existing mechanism to force them to leave the euro. 

Not that it will make any difference to bondholders of course. A default is a default.

I Run Bartertown · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:37am

Loud Noises

Thanks. That's pretty much exactly my thinking. $40 from here would be explosive, but yet still nothing I'd get too excited about.

'Historic' takes it to another level IMO.

dropout · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:44am

First Things - First

Silver must clear and close at a weeks end above $33.10

Then clear $34.50 for a chance at the "explosive" move through $50.00 which will be the "historic" mark.

SRSrocco · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:45am


A Measly 26% U.S. Corn Rated Good, Excellent

July 23, 2012 By: Editors

Below are the latest crop condition reports from USDA.

Last year at this time, around 60% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good or excellent. This year, only 26% earns those rankings. As of this week, 21% is rated very poor, 24% poor, 29% fair, 23% good and 3% excellent.

Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending July 22, 2012
[National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2011
planted acreage]
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
: percent
Colorado .......: 21 23 26 27 3
Illinois .......: 36 30 27 7 -
Indiana ........: 38 33 22 6 1
Iowa ...........: 14 26 37 21 2
Kansas .........: 28 31 29 11 1
Kentucky .......: 43 34 17 5 1
Michigan .......: 27 24 26 21 2
Minnesota ......: 3 8 28 53 8
Missouri .......: 48 31 16 4 1
Nebraska .......: 14 19 30 32 5
North Carolina .: 2 13 32 39 14
North Dakota ...: 2 9 31 54 4
Ohio ...........: 21 31 33 14 1
Pennsylvania ...: 4 10 33 40 13
South Dakota ...: 13 22 34 29 2
Tennessee ......: 25 30 27 17 1
Texas ..........: 4 7 38 40 11
Wisconsin ......: 19 24 26 24 7
18 States ......: 21 24 29 23 3
Previous week ..: 16 22 31 27 4
Previous year ..: 5 9 24 46 16
- Represents zero.

babaganoush2307 · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:45am

Just picked up...

3 Silver eagles for $90 on ebay, $1 less per coin then at the LCS and has a 1996 in the group which run upwards of $50 due to limited production! cheeky Happy camper right now 

JackPutter · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:49am

Looking at prices

I saw an article (I can't remember where.) that stated that the US Dollar has gained approx. 12% in the last year vs. other currencies. Along this line of thought, if the price of silver and gold stay flat in dollar terms, then it is keeping pace with the dollars "safe haven" actions. In that respect the PMs are also gaining yet it may not be evident.

The divergence will come at some point to be sure.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:57am


Which states pride themselves on their corn crops? I assume Nebraska is one.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 24, 2012 - 11:58am


With ya. I'm clearing a few turds off the desk to take a long weekend in Vancouver to the bigger LCS. Bye-bye benjamins.

But before I leave town, I need to give the LLCS his lunch money and grab a roll on this otherwise dull day.

Istack · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:04pm

Explosive and Historic

sounds like something we may have not seen before. i expect something like last year with bigger swings. i see current manipulated low prices like a spring. a loaded spring. i expect a new alltime high in silver. prices have been manipulated to the downside for too long. something eventually has to give. the dollar has to inflate over time. i also feel like we are about to see explosive and historic inflation soon as well. PM's and other real assets may be the only thing that will be able to keep up with inflation and probably outrun inflation as more eyes are opened. i don't put all my confidence in my gold and silver. i just put very little confidence in fiat dollars.

My mom is about to retire. I think I just talked her into investing $5000 into a silver stack. She has been watching all the things that I have been doing with my money and i think she is seeing some wisdom in it. She is also seeing a lack of wisdom everyday on the nightly news reports.

i think it has been a great time to stack while we have been in these range-bound prices. i stack with confidence. sure we could have a pullback to the lower 20's. i'm convinced that it will be shortlived if it happens. i will buy there if i can. then it is time for the move. i believe it is coming.

obiwan · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:05pm

Feed the Turd and Feed the

Feed the Turd and Feed the Ninjas

Senseosensei · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:08pm

@ Sens

Thanks for starting that forum.

I just spoke with JimW and he's a big believer in "geo-engineering". Thinks the US drought may be directly related.

TitanAe · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:10pm

How can spain leave Euro?

There is nooo mechanism for a country leaving the euro ! As of today if any country goes down they will all be dragged down. So please understand that all this leaving stuff is nothing but talk. I should add the only way a country might leave if it were possible is a clear 100 % default !!!! I some would be very amazed if that were allowed to happen !



ivars · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:12pm

Topped account. Waiting for

Topped account. Waiting for Thursday. When exactly does options expire ( time wise? at the end of Comex session?).

Daedalus Mugged · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:25pm

TitanAE Re: Spain Exit

Read Gonzolo Lira's (Turd's TTM partner) latest point on exactly that subject. 

There is no 'mechanism' but that doesn't mean one can't be created. 

pforth · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:25pm

Raid to 26.60

Hope it stops here. Double hoping for a FUBM.

Bum in the library... · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:26pm


another smash down

Beastly Stack · Jul 24, 2012 - 12:29pm

Getting Ugly

Sure is getting UGLY!

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