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Back In The Saddle

Mon, Jul 23, 2012 - 11:16am

I'm back in the saddle, again. Got my trusty Turd hat on. I'm armed with my Sharpie and ruler. Let's get busy.

Gene Autry "Back in the Saddle Again"

We might as well dive right into the metals. It looks like I picked the right week to take a vacation as both metals have been stuck in rather tight ranges now for over two weeks. Yuck. So now the question becomes...what happens when these flat-line periods end? Will the metals collapse through their respective floors or will they catapult higher? Of course, anything is possible and I still would not discount the idea that the Cartels could make a run at the stops below 1525 and 26. However, I am still supremely confident that prices will soon move significantly higher.

In the short term, we have to deal with option expiration first as the August gold options expire on Thursday. We'll certainly see the usual gaming of paper price as we approach the hour of expiration but, with price so flat over the past 10 weeks, it shouldn't be overly dramatic. We'll see.

One more thing regarding silver...The Mullet is interviewed in this Bloomberg article and he states that the "silver investigation", which has been ongoing since 1957, may finally draw to a close later this year. Whatever, dude. Tell the rest of The Allman Brothers hello for me. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/cftc-s-chilton-sees-silver-probe-concluding-this-year.html

As you know, crude broke higher last week and was able to make it to nearly $93. However, it couldn't hold that position and has now run into profit-taking. Oh, well. It doesn't look like the situation in the MENA has improved much. Let's look to BTFD.( https://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-23-08-06-13) & ( https://www.debka.com/article/22204/Two-hours-for-Syrian-chemical-weapons-to-reach-Lebanon-Four-armies-prepared)

Speaking of mustard gas, The POSX has been as strong, of not stronger, than mustard gas over the past few weeks. Always remember and never forget that a rising Pig simply is a reflection of weakness in other, global fiat. The Pig will, one day soon, have it's time in the barrel. Before then, however, it certainly looks like it is making a run back toward the top of its perennial range, near 88.

Lastly, the grains. I've been hoping for a dip to buy and I may be getting it this week. I mentioned in the previous post that they were susceptible to a brief, sharp pullback and the latest Midwest forecast shows temps this week that will not be quite as hot as previously thought. There may even be some rain.

As I type, beans are down about 40c from their Friday close and corn is down about 15c. Let's see if this can continue a bit. I'm looking to buy the dip, though. Driving home yesterday, I was struck by how terrible the crops look. Just awful and it's only July. The damage has already been done and yields will not recover. That said, IF the heat doesn't weaken and IF it only gets worse in August, we could actually be looking at an horrific failure. This is NOT something we want to see for a plethora of reasons. That said, we might as well make some money if it's going to happen. I'll be watching grain prices closely all week and I'll keep you posted.

One bit of interesting reading I found over the weekend and I comes from the FT. FWIW: https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7015fcfc-d419-11e1-942c-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fworld_us%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz21OxxcIVV

OK, that's all for now. For all TurdTalksMetals members, that service is now back to fully-operational. I hope you've found the changes that we've made satisfactory and are pleased with the new design. For everyone else, please consider joining. We've worked out the technical issues and any concerns that folks had over "site security" have been rectified, as well. The site is growing but, if we're ever going to have a Turdapalozza, it needs to be more than 150 members so please give membership a renewed consideration. I think you'll find great value there but maybe some of the current members can chime in with some objective feedback in the comments of this thread.

Thanks again to everyone for patience while I was out. Now, let's go get 'em.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


proformatrillionaire · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:17am


bellyacre · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:18am

Number Two. 

Welcome Back Turd.

Scott · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:20am

Couldn't resist

LaMachinna · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:20am

Turd is back! laugh Hope your vacay was a good one. 

proformatrillionaire · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:21am

Hulk Hogan's brother with hair not an Allman brother. He gets paid just to show up at CFTC offices and do nothing. Sounds like a sibling of the Hulk to me.

survivalwstyle · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:25am

we aLL hear the music 


in other news the morguer made some waves this wEEkend.

JPMorgan [JPM 34.135 0.235 (+0.69%) ] rebounded following news that CEO Jamie Dimon bought 500,000 shares last week for $17.1 million.

siLLy jamie. trix are for kids. could have taken 633,000 oz of Ag oFF the market. p4 makes a cameo here.


Joe · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:26am

Nice to see you back up and running Turd. Thanks again for all you do....

Silver Danny · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:28am

Don't see this everyday...

tyberious · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:30am


Ned Naylor-Leyland talks to Alasdair Macleod about Europe and increasing demand for allocated gold

Subscribe to our newsletter at https://www.goldmoney.com/goldresearch. GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod talks to Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management about Europe’s debt crisis, the euro, and gold and silver price prospects. He also discusses the Pan-Asia Gold Exchange, and how an increasing number of investors are demanding allocated gold.

Ned is slightly more optimistic about the euro than most analysts, owing to what he sees as the high likelihood of further successful moves towards fiscal union. He also thinks the large gold reserves held by the European Central Bank as well as the largest member states (Germany, France and Italy) are a plus for the currency.

Regarding the Pan-Asia Gold Exchange that he talked about at last summer’s GATA conference in London, Ned notes that internal Chinese political wrangling appears to have blocked the introduction of an international fully-allocated spot gold contract. However, an equivalent silver contract is going to start trading within the next few months, which could have bullish consequences for silver.

Alasdair and Ned also discuss proposals to make gold bullion a Tier-1 bank asset. They state that this is further evidence that gold is once again regaining a formal role within the financial system — good news for both gold investors and the banks themselves.

This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2012.

Nana · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:30am

Welcome home Turd!

Hoping for an Up, Up and Away for the metals....

"and sail along the silver sky"

Up Up and Away - Hot air Balloons
Lincoln Hahn · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:31am

If the mare got out of the barn last nite .... it's Saddle Soap in the Shower .... again ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad What's The Cleanest Part Of Your Body ? devil

Simon Cooper · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:31am

Welcome back Turd!

1957? Is misprint or a very long investigation (very lucrative for the investigators, if so).

These ranges are boring. Hanging around, it seems for millenia, waiting to be unleashed:

The Young Ones The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
Dagney Taggart · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:32am

in the G&S charts. Countdown to something using the gap fill method....

Good catch Battle.

Colonel Angus · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:33am

...nice try over at marketwatch with this crap:


Yes, I've already posted over there. Seriously, though....the markets are falling apart and they have the temerity to say, "Oh no! Gold is down a fraction of a percent?" Tools. BTFD I say. I went all in on silver this weekend, and it isn't concerning me one bit. Maybe Hulk Hogan in drag will have something to say to us about the silver investigation soon.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:33am

In case you migrated to this thread, you're point is taken.

However, part of your PM education will require you to understand the big picture. Individual liberty and what sustains it is a large part of that education. Sorry that it is uncomfortable to you at this point or that you're looking for specific answers and having trouble finding them.

The more you immerse yourself in all of these ideas, the easier it will be to isolate the gold from the babble.

tyberious · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:35am

The War on Silver

Theodore Butler | July 23, 2012 - 10:32am Facebook Twitter Forward Print

It has taken more than 25 years for me to fully comprehend a conclusion that I never wanted to reach, namely, that there is an organized war against the price of silver that has come to include the US Government. I think the US Government involvement came into being almost accidently, but even if it was an accident of sorts, that does not diminish the serious nature of what must be described as illegal activity at the highest levels. I am conflicted between feelings of sadness and outrage.


Moku Farms · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:36am

of talks by Chris Hedges the last few weeks and they are always full of reality and challenge everyone: Obama supporters, the right-wing, liberals, evangelical church. Nothing is happening (yet) in metals so spend some time and get a new perspective.


Nikki Dodi · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:37am

Ahhh... Gene Autry, Cisco Kid & Pancho, Hopalong Cassidy & Windy (Gabby Hayes), Wild Bill Hickok, Annie Oakley... 

Those were the days, my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
Those were the days
Oh, yes, those were the days
La la la la la la
La la la la la la

Dagney Taggart · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:39am

Yes the MSM has lost all credibility in it's gold commentary.

I cited this last week from https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/07/19/gold-etfs-lose-shine/

"The economic and global instability seem to having investors losing confidence in the precious metal."

Nana · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:59am


  1. Of high cost or worth; valuable.
  2. Highly esteemed; cherished.
  3. Dear; beloved.
  4. Affectedly dainty or overrefined: precious mannerisms.
  5. Informal. Thoroughgoing; unmitigated: a precious mess.

Read more: https://www.answers.com/topic/precious#ixzz21ShC1Hx6

They aren't called precious metals for nothing.

James Tetreault · Jul 23, 2012 - 11:59am

Ted Butler is completely on board now.

tyberious · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:05pm


Investigative reporter Greg Hunter reveals how the banking system is rife with fraud, instability and infighting which could collapse the entire system, resulting in a prolonged bank holiday.Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network an investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows. Greg is a hard hitting reporter who has a history of getting to the truth no matter how difficult the subject.


Frank Zappa · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:08pm

I do notice that the tool manufacturer symbol RGR is up over 3% or $1.27 now. This must be a direct reflection of the quality, usefulness and demand for Strum Ruger family of fine (tools) products of which I own. 

Hrunner · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:09pm

I print hat tips faster than Helicopter Ben can CTRL P dollars.

Is there a hedge against my outrageous hat tip inflation? I think not.

I fancy Turd as more of a Cisco Kid.

The outlaws had us pinned down at the fort
The outlaws had us pinned down at the fort
Cisco came in blastin', drinkin' port
Cisco came in blastin', drinkin' port

Glad to have you back yellow-hatted one!


Smiling Man · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:20pm


You posted the same long term gold chart twice. I think you might have meant to post a long term silver chart where the second long term duplicate gold chart posted. Thanks for all you do.

Nana · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:24pm

FDA caught spying on its own scientists to muzzle whistleblowers
A massive covert and secret operation by the FDA to seek out and muzzle several of THEIR OWN SCIENTISTS, those who were seeking to blow the whistle on the FDA's own fraud and unethical handling of information regarding cancer treatment methods, has been completely exposed. The issue actually began as a dispute between the scientists and their superiors at the FDA, in which the scientists accused the latter of "FAULTY REVIEW PROCEDURES," which directly led to the approval of the CANCER CAUSING mammogram and colonoscopy imaging machines.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration secretly kept critics of its policy under surveillance, which is the epitome of a U.S. government agency creating a chilling fear for anyone trying to expose the fraud of the cancer "chronic care mismanagement" industry. The whole operation ensnared 21 workers, including journalists and Congressional officials.
As part of its surveillance, the FDA swept up thousands of confidential emails the scientists had with lawyers, journalists, Congressional staff and even President Obama. Although the investigation began with only five scientists, it is now revealed that the massive campaign is still in operation to suppress over 80,000 pages of documents
and end the whistle-blowing on all fronts. The FDA has been caught red-handed trying to cover up a scam which adds to the blight of the $100 billion cancer industry, which is fed and bred by the FDA.


Dr Robert Bob Beck Lecture - Suppressed Medical Discovery To Treat All Disease

Silvers amazing property.

Going to be 103 today, again.....

Island Teal · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:24pm

This is probably one of the biggest game changers ever in the oil/gas business

Cnooc to Acquire Nexen for $15 Billion

On Monday, Cnooc, the Chinese state-run oil giant, agreed to buy Nexen of Canada for $15 billion, as global players look to beef up their access to natural resources.

Among Nexen’s properties are parts of the oil sands in Canada’s Alberta province.

Through the acquisition, Cnooc will also gain valuable footholds in oil- and gas-producing areas around the world, including western Canada, the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the waters off Nigeria.

Companies around the world have been scrambling to build up their holdings in so-called unconventional resources, which include the gas-rich hard rock formations that underpin today’s drilling boom. (Separately, Sinopec, another Chinese oil company, announced on Monday that it has purchased a 49 percent stake in Talisman Energy‘s holdings in the North Sea for $1.5 billion.)

· Jul 23, 2012 - 12:27pm

Can we drop the gun control argument? Please?

Once, on a long drive to an academic conference, a friend and I decided to debate the gun control issue to the bitter end. I took the "gun control" side and he defended "freedom." We debated ad nauseum until we ran out of arguments--several hours since we were both talkative opinionated PhD students in a Rhetoric program. Our friend in back fell asleep. I finally conceded after I dug deep and pinned him down to his final argument. He was bullied as a kid growing up in the poor side of town. He simply did not feel safe sleeping without a gun in his night stand.

How do I argue against that? It is raw, emotional, and will never be reasoned away.

The gun debate is fruitless. On this board, the debate is just intruding on other more productive talk.

I'm gonna go clean my gun.

Grains are getting ready to explode!


I Run Bartertown · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:31pm

More threats to whistleblowers:

Worrisome Message from Acting ATF Director
Dagney Taggart · Jul 23, 2012 - 12:33pm

Good catch. My metal is being saved, in part to squeeze fraudulent criminal bankers, but more for those who will do something productive with it.

Humanity can do so much better.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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